Development and validation of an International Prognostic Score of thrombosis in World Health Organization–essential thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis)
Abstract Accurate prediction of thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia (ET) provides the platform for prospective studies exploring preventive measures. Current risk stratification for thrombosis in ET is 2-tiered and considers low- and high-risk categories based on the respective absence or presence of either age > 60 years or history of thrombosis. In an international study of 891 patients with World Health Organization (WHO)–defined ET, we identified additional independent risk factors including cardiovascular risk factors and JAK2V617F. Accordingly, we assigned risk scores based on multivariable analysis–derived hazard ratios (HRs) to age > 60 years (HR = 1.5; 1 point), thrombosis history (HR = 1.9; 2 points), cardiovascular risk factors (HR = 1.6; 1 point), and JAK2V617F (HR = 2.0; 2 points) and subsequently devised a 3-tiered prognostic model (low-risk = < 2 points; intermediate-risk = 2 points; and high-risk = > 2 points) using a training set of 535 patients and validated the results in the remaining cohort (n = 356; internal validation set) and in an external validation set (n = 329). Considering all 3 cohorts (n = 1220), the 3-tiered new prognostic model (low-risk n = 474 vs intermediate-risk n = 471 vs high-risk n = 275), with a respective thrombosis risk of 1.03% of patients/y versus 2.35% of patients/y versus 3.56% of patients/y, outperformed the 2-tiered (low-risk 0.95% of patients/y vs high-risk 2.86% of patients/y) conventional risk stratification in predicting future vascular events.
A prognostic model to predict survival in 867 World Health Organization–defined essential thrombocythemia at diagnosis: a study by the International Working Group on Myelofibrosis Research and Treatment
Abstract Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification. We developed a prognostic model to predict survival at diagnosis, named IPSET (International Prognostic Score for ET), studying patients with WHO-defined ET. Age 60 years or older, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and prior thrombosis significantly affected survival, by multivariable Cox regression. On the basis of the hazard ratio, we assigned 2 points to age and 1 each to leukocyte count and thrombosis. So, the IPSET model allocated 867 patients into 3 risk categories with significantly different survival: low (sum of points = 0; median survival not reached), intermediate (sum = 1-2; median survival 24.5 years), and high (sum = 3-4, median survival 13.8 years). The IPSET model was further validated in 2 independent cohorts including 132 WHO-defined ET and 234 Polycythemia Vera Study Group–defined ET patients. The IPSET model was able to predict the occurrence of thrombosis, and not to predict post-ET myelofibrosis. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age ≥ 60 years, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET and the validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET.
Disease characteristics and clinical outcome in young adults with essential thrombocythemia versus early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis
AbstractIn the present study, we investigated disease characteristics and clinical outcome in young patients (< 40 years) with World Health Organization (WHO)–defined essential thrombocythemia (ET) compared with early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (PMF) with presenting thrombocythemia. We recruited 213 young patients (median age, 33.6 years), ncluding 178 patients (84%) with WHO-defined ET and 35 patients (16%) showing early PMF. Median follow-up time was 7.5 years. A trend for more overall thrombotic complications, particularly arterial, was seen in early PMF compared with ET. Progression to overt myelofibrosis was 3% in ET and 9% in early PMF, but no transformation into acute leukemia was observed. Combining all adverse events (thrombosis, bleeding, and myelofibrosis), the rate was significantly different (1.29% vs 3.43% of patients/year, P = .01) in WHO-ET and early PMF, respectively. In multivariate analysis, early PMF and the JAK2V617F mutation emerged as independent factors predicting cumulative adverse events.
Initial bone marrow reticulin fibrosis in polycythemia vera exerts an impact on clinical outcome
Abstract We examined the prevalence and prognostic relevance of bone marrow reticulin fibrosis in 526 patients with World Health Organization–defined polycythemia vera evaluated at the time of initial diagnosis. Seventy-four patients (14%) displayed mostly grade 1 reticulin fibrosis, with only 2 cases showing higher-grade fibrosis. Presenting clinical and laboratory characteristics, including JAK2V617F allele burden, between patients with and without fibrosis were similar for the most part, with the exception of a higher prevalence of palpable splenomegaly in patients with fibrosis (P < .01). Patients with fibrosis were less prone to experience thrombosis during their clinical course (1.1 vs 2.7 per 100 patient-years; P = .03) and more prone to develop post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (2.2 vs 0.8 per 100 patient-years; P = .01). There was no significant difference between the 2 groups in terms of overall or leukemia-free survival. The present study clarifies the incidence, degree, and prognostic relevance of bone marrow fibrosis obtained at time of initial diagnosis of polycythemia vera.
Survival and Disease Progression in Essential Thrombocythemia Are Significantly Influenced by Accurate Morphologic Diagnosis: An International Study
Purpose The WHO diagnostic criteria underscore the role of bone marrow (BM) morphology in distinguishing essential thrombocythemia (ET) from early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (PMF). This study examined the clinical relevance of such a distinction. Methods Representatives from seven international centers of excellence for myeloproliferative neoplasms convened to create a clinicopathologic database of patients previously diagnosed as having ET (N = 1,104). Study eligibility criteria included availability of treatment-naive BM specimens obtained within 1 year of diagnosis. All bone marrows subsequently underwent a central re-review. Results Diagnosis was confirmed as ET in 891 patients (81%) and was revised to early/prefibrotic PMF in 180 (16%); 33 patients were not evaluable. In early/prefibrotic PMF compared with ET, the 10-year survival rates (76% and 89%, respectively) and 15-year survival rates (59% and 80%, respectively), leukemic transformation rates at 10 years (5.8% and 0.7%, respectively) and 15 years (11.7% and 2.1%, respectively), and rates of progression to overt myelofibrosis at 10 years (12.3% and 0.8%, respectively) and 15 years (16.9% and 9.3%) were significantly worse. The respective death, leukemia, and overt myelofibrosis incidence rates per 100 patient-years for early/prefibrotic PMF compared with ET were 2.7% and 1.3% (relative risk [RR], 2.1; P < .001), 0.6% and 0.1% (RR, 5.2; P = .001), and 1% and 0.5% (RR, 2.0; P = .04). Multivariable analysis confirmed these findings and also identified age older than 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 6.7), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 10 9 /L (HR, 2.01), anemia (HR, 2.95), and thrombosis history (HR, 2.81) as additional risk factors for survival. Thrombosis and JAK2V617F incidence rates were similar between the two groups. Survival in ET was similar to the sex- and age-standardized European population. Conclusion This study validates the clinical relevance of strict adherence to WHO criteria in the diagnosis of ET and provides important information on survival, disease complication rates, and prognostic factors in strictly WHO-defined ET and early/prefibrotic PMF.
Risk factors for arterial and venous thrombosis in WHO-defined essential thrombocythemia: an international study of 891 patients
Abstract In an international collaborative study, a central histologic review identified 891 patients with essential thrombocythemia, strictly defined by World Health Organization criteria. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 109 (12%) patients experienced arterial (n = 79) or venous (n = 37) thrombosis. In multivariable analysis, predictors of arterial thrombosis included age more than 60 years (P = .03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7), thrombosis history (P = .003; HR = 2.1), cardiovascular risk factors including tobacco use, hypertension, or diabetes mellitus (P = .007; HR = 1.9), leukocytosis (> 11 × 109/L; P = .04; HR = 1.7), and presence of JAK2V617F (P = .009; HR = 2.6). In contrast, only male gender predicted venous thrombosis. Platelet count more than 1000 × 109/L was associated with a lower risk of arterial thrombosis (P = .007; HR = 0.4). These associations, except the one with leukocytosis, remained significant (or near significant) when analysis was restricted to JAK2V617F-positive cases. The current study clarifies the contribution of specific disease and host characteristics to the risk of arterial versus venous thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia.