Caramazza, Domenica

Abstract Abstract 2806 Background: A high degree of prognostic certainty is required to recommend or discourage high risk treatment procedures in primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS-plus) uses eight risk factors to predict overall survival (OS) in PMF: unfavorable karyotype, peripheral blood (PB) blast count ≥1%, platelet count <100 × 109/L, white blood cell count (WBC) >25 × 109/L, hemoglobin level <10 g/dL, red blood cell transfusion need, constitutional symptoms, and age >65 years (Gangat et al. JCO 2011;29 :392). The presence of four or more of these risk factors defines high-risk disease. purpose: The purpose of the current study was to enhance the prognostic weight of some of the DIPSS-plus risk factors with the intent to identify one or two parameters that can reliably predict death in the first two years of disease. Methods: An updated Mayo Clinic database of 884 karyotypically-annotated patients with PMF was used. Calculations of 2-year mortality rates and variables considered for prognostic value were from time of referral to the Mayo Clinic. Cytogenetic risk categorization per DIPSS-plus was further refined to capture additional prognostic information from monosomal karyotype (MK) (Vaidya et al. Blood 2011;117 :5612) and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (Caramazza et al. Leukemia 2011;25 :82). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to define best discriminant levels. Results: To date, 564 (64%) deaths have been documented. Each one of the aforementioned DIPSS-plus risk factors was associated with a 2-year mortality rate that ranged from 42% (PB blast count ≥1%) to 60% (unfavorable karyotype). High-risk disease per DIPSS-plus was associated with 57% two-year mortality. The only risk factors that were associated with >80% two-year mortality were MK (n =19) and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (n =8) and both were associated with significantly worse survival, compared to other unfavorable karyotype (n =102): HR (95% CI) of 5.1 (3.1−8.4) and 3.9 (1.7−8.8), respectively. ROC analysis identified PB blast counts of 2% and 9% (AUC 0.62) and WBC of 43 × 109/L (AUC 0.66) as best discriminant levels for predicting 2-year mortality; OS was significantly worse in the presence of PB blast >9% (HR 4.1, 95% CI 2.8–6.1) vs. 2% to 9% (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.5–2.2) vs. <2%; the corresponding 2-year mortality rates were 73%, 46% and 25%. OS was also significantly worse in the presence of WBC ≥40 × 109/L (HR 2.8, 95% CI 2.2–3.6) vs. 26–39 × 109/L (HR 1.6, 95% CI, 1.2–2.1) vs. <26 × 109/L; the corresponding 2-year mortality rates were 63%, 42% and 28%. Two-year mortality rates exceeded 80% in the presence of any two of the following: PB blast count >9%, WBC ≥40 × 109/L or unfavorable karyotype other than MK or inv(3)/i(17q). Conclusions: A greater than 80% 2-year mortality in PMF is predicted by the presence of MK, inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities, or any two of the following: PB blast >9%, WBC ≥40 × 109/L, other unfavorable karyotype. Such patients and those with high DIPSS-plus risk should be referred to allogenic stem cell transplantation earlier than later. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Abstract 1746 Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification, that provides a guideline to distinguish ET from early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis. These two conditions differ in term of disease evolution and survival (Barbui et al, J. Clin. Oncol. 2011). To design a prognostic model for survival in WHO-defined ET (International Prognostic Score for Essential Thrombocythemia, IPSET), we studied 891 patients with strict WHO diagnostic criteria. Demographics have been presented elsewhere (Barbui et al, J. Clin. Oncol. 2011). We tested the prognostic impact on survival of age, prior thrombosis, leukocyte count, platelet count, hemoglobin level, JAK mutational status, splenomegaly. Harrell's C concordance statistics were used to set the best cutoff levels of continuous variables in order to predict survival. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression showed that age over 60 years (P<.0001), leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L (P<.0001), anemia (P=.04), platelet count greater than 1000 x109/L (P<.004) and prior history of thrombosis (P< 0001) were significant risk factors for survival. Age over 60 years (hazard ratio-HR- 6.5, 95% CI: 3.9–10.7; P<.0001), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 109/L (HR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2–4.7; P<.0001) and prior history of thrombosis (HR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9–4.5; P< 0001) retained statistical significance on survival by multivariable analysis and were included in the new prognostic model. We assigned each factor an integer weight close to the corresponding HR in the multivariable Cox regression: weight 2 for age over 60 years; weight 1 for leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L and for prior thrombosis. Finally, we defined the IPSET score by allocating patients into three risk categories with significantly different survival according to the sum of weights: low risk (sum of weights=0; n= 342; median survival not reached), intermediate risk (sum=1-2; N=374; median survival 24.5 years), and high risk (sum=3-4, n=158; median survival 13.8 years). Fisher exact test did not reveal a difference in the distribution of the causes of death among IPSET categories. We validated the model in two independent cohorts: one from Germany (132 WHO-defined ET) and another from France (234 ET patients not strictly diagnosed according to WHO). Log rank test and Cox regression showed significant differences in term of survival among IPSET categories in both series. Finally, we designed an age-specific IPSET model for patients younger than 60 years (IPSET-y). Using the same methodology, we found that age over 45 years (weight 2), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 109/L (weight 1) and prior history of thrombosis (weight 1) were independent risk factors for survival. IPSET-y defined three risk categories (LR, sum=0; IR, sum=1-2; HR, sum=3–4) with a median survival not reached in LR and IR, and of 22.3 years in HR. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age over 60 years, leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET. The validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET. IPSET models may be useful for treatment decision-making. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Italfarmaco: Consultancy; Novartis: Honoraria. Gisslinger:AOP Orphan Pharmaceuticals AG: Research Funding.

Abstract Abstract 3833 Background: Survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is assessed by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) (Blood 2010;115:1703) and DIPSS-plus (JCO 2011;29:392). The latter is based on eight risk factors including age>65 years, constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, red blood cell transfusion need, leukocyte count >25 × 109/L, platelet count <100 × 109/L, peripheral blood (PB) blasts ≥1% and unfavorable karyotype. Recent studies have highlighted the prognostic significance of monosomal karyotype (MK) (Blood 2011;117:5612), unfavorable karyotype (Leukemia 2011;25:82) and platelet count <100 × 109/L ((JCO 2011;29:392), for leukemic transformation (LT) in PMF. Methods: A combination of multivariable and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were applied to a Mayo Clinic database of 884 karyotypically-annotated patients with PMF, in order to define karyotype-dependent and karyotype-independent risk models for LT. The karyotype-independent model was further validated in a separate cohort of 525 PMF patients from an international database (Blood 2010;115:1703). Patients in the Mayo cohort were evaluated at time of referral and those of the international database at time of initial diagnosis. Results I: Sixty cases of LT were documented. Karyotype (categorized into MK, inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities, other unfavorable, and favorable), PB blast percentage (as a continuous variable), and platelet count (as a continuous variable) were the most reliable (p<0.01) in predicting leukemia-free survival (LFS). The best discriminant levels for inferior LFS were MK (HR 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.1), inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (HR 7.6, 95% CI 1.8–33.3), PB blast ≥2% (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4–4.2) and platelet count ≤41 × 109/L (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3–5.1). MK and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities were subsequently consolidated into one “very high risk” cytogenetic category (n =27), with a corresponding HR of 6.6 (95% CI 2.7–16.0). HR-based risk scores were assigned to “very high risk” karyotype (2 points), PB blast ≥2% (one point) and platelet count ≤50 × 109/L (one point) to classify patients into low (no adverse points; n =522), intermediate (one adverse point; n =290) and high risk (two or more adverse points; n =72) groups; the corresponding 3-year LT rates were 3%, 10% (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–4.6) and 35% (HR 9.4, 95% CI 4.7–18.7) (Figure 1). Results II: The karyotype-independent model was based on PB blast percentage and platelet count only; low-risk (no adverse points; n =525), intermediate-risk (one adverse point; n =311) and high-risk (two adverse points; n =48); the corresponding 3-year LT rates were 3%, 12% (HR 3.1, 95% CI 1.8–5.4; p<0.0001) and 25% (HR 6.0, 95% CI 2.6–14.1). The karyotype-independent model was validated in a separate cohort of 525 PMF patients with 70 documented cases of LT, from an international database (Blood 2010;115:1703). Conclusions: The current leukemia risk models are applicable at diagnosis or during follow-up, in the presence or absence of cytogenetic information, and complement DIPSS-plus in the comprehensive prognostication of patients with PMF. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Novartis: Honoraria.

Abstract Abstract 4009 Trisomy 8 is the most common among sole cytogenetic abnormalities in both acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). In the very first paper published on isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutations in AML, 13 of the 16 IDH1 mutations detected were associated with normal karyotype, 2 with trisomy 8 and one with trisomy 13. Trisomy 8 was also recurrent in patients with IDH1/IDH2-mutated post-MDS AML. In the current study we examined the prevalence and disease distribution of IDH1 and IDH2 mutations in a large (n=157) group of patients with hematologic malignancies and isolated trisomy 8. The Mayo Clinic cytogenetic database allowed identification of 157 patients with isolated trisomy 8. Archived bone marrow cell pellets were used to extract DNA for IDH1 and IDH2 mutation analysis. Eighteen IDH mutations were identified: 15 IDH2 (14 R140Q and one R140W) and 3 IDH1 (2 R132C and one R132G). Seventeen of the 18 IDH mutations occurred in myeloid malignancies whereas one (IDH2R140W) occurred in a patient with angioimmunoblastic lymphoma who was not previously exposed to chemotherapy or radiotherapy, and in whom the IDH2 mutation disappeared after effective lymphoma chemotherapy. Among the 17 IDH-mutated myeloid malignancies, disease-specific IDH1/IDH2 mutational frequencies were as follows: 27% (3/11) for post-MDS AML, 25% (3/12) for therapy-related MDS/AML, 15% (8/54) for de novo MDS, 13% (2/15) for de novo AML and 3% (1/32) for myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN). In contrast, IDH mutational frequencies were significantly lower among 64 additional patients with AML or MDS without isolated trisomy 8: 7% in de novo AML (n=28), 0% in de novo MDS (n=21), 0% in post-MDS AML (n=11) and 0% in therapy-related MDS/AML (n=4). In the 54 patients with trisomy 8-associated de novo MDS, prognosis was similar between IDH mutated (n=8; median survival 14 months) and unmutated (n=46; median survival 16 months) cases (p=0.7). The majority of IDH-mutated cases with de novo MDS belonged to high risk MDS disease category. However, 3 of the 8 IDH-mutated patients with de novo MDS and 2 of the 3 with therapy-related MDS did not display excess bone marrow blasts. The current study suggests a possible association between IDH mutations and trisomy 8 in AML and MDS but not in MPN or MDS/MPN. The fact that the mere presence of trisomy 8 did not result in a more than expected incidence of IDH mutations in MPN or MDS/MPN makes it unlikely that such an association would be secondary to trisomy 8-associated genetic or biologic changes. Instead, it is possible that IDH mutations, which have been shown to cluster with high-risk disease in both MPN and MDS associated with 5q-, promote a selective advantage for the survival of the clone that harbors trisomy 8. Consistent with this contention, we were able to demonstrate in one of our patients with relapsed AML, the presence of IDHR132C both at initial AML diagnosis and time of relapse, whereas the trisomy 8 abnormality was seen only at the time of relapse. Regardless, the presence of molecular heterogeneity among patients with trisomy 8-associated AML or MDS might explain the controversial prognostic influence of the specific cytogenetic abnormality. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Abstract 4104 Background: The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) for primary myelofibrosis (PMF) uses five predictors of inferior survival: age > 65 years, hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, leukocytes > 25 × 109/L, circulating blasts ≥ 1% and constitutional symptoms (Cervantes F et al. Blood 2009; 113: 2895). The dynamic IPSS (DIPSS) utilizes the same prognostic variables but can be applied at any time during the disease course (Passamonti F et al. Blood 2010; 115: 1703). IPSS-independent risk factors for survival have since been described and include unfavorable karyotype, red cell transfusion need and platelets < 100 × 109/L. Objectives: i) To determine if the aforementioned IPSS-independent risk factors for survival in PMF (i.e. unfavorable karyotype, red cell transfusion need and platelets < 100 × 109/L) are also DIPSS-independent. ii) To develop and validate a refined DIPSS model that incorporates DIPSS-independent prognostic factors for survival. iii) To establish a prognostic model for leukemia-free survival in PMF. Methods: The Mayo Clinic database for PMF was used to identify patients in whom bone marrow histologic and cytogenetic information was obtained at the time of their referral. WHO criteria were used for PMF diagnosis and leukemic transformation (Vardiman JW et al. Blood 2009; 114: 937). None of the patients in the current study were included in the original group of patients used to describe DIPSS (Passamonti F et al. Blood 2010; 115: 1703). Results: A total of 793 patients met the above-stipulated criteria. The study population was divided into two groups based on whether or not patients were seen at the Mayo Clinic within (n=428; training set) or beyond (n=365; test set) their first year of diagnosis. i) Objective 1: Multivariable analysis that included DIPSS risk category (low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2 and high risk), karyotype (favorable or unfavorable), platelet count (≥ or <100 × 109/L) and transfusion status (independent or dependent) was performed using the training set and all four variables were found to be significant as independent predictors of survival (p<0.0001, <0.0001, 0.0008 and 0.01, respectively). ii) Objective 2: Using the respective hazard ratios (HR) obtained during the multivariable prognostic analysis in the training set, HR-weighted adverse points were assigned: 3 points for high-risk DIPSS, 2 points for intermediate-2 risk DIPSS, and 1 point each for intermediate-1 risk DIPSS, unfavorable karyotype, platelets < 100 × 109/L or transfusion need. Accordingly, a refined DIPSS model (i.e. DIPSS-plus) was devised using the training set (Figure 1) and subsequently validated in the test set (Figure 2): low-risk (0 adverse points), intermediate-1 risk (1 adverse point), intermediate-2 risk (2-3 adverse points) and high-risk (4-6 adverse points). Considering the entire group of 793 study patients, the respective median survivals were 185, 78, 35 and 16 months (p<0.0001). ii) Objective 3: Multivariable analysis identified platelet count (p=0.0007) and karyotype (p=0.04) but not DIPSS or transfusion status as independent predictors of leukemia-free survival. We used these two variables to classify patients into a low (favorable karyotype and platelets ≥ 100 × 109/L) or high (unfavorable karyotype or platelets < 100 × 109/L) risk category for leukemic transformation; the respective 5- and 10-year risk of leukemic transformation were 6% and 12% vs. 18% and 31%, respectively (p<0.0001; HR 3.3, 95% CI 1.9–5.6). Conclusions: DIPSS-plus effectively incorporates prognostic information from karyotype, platelet count and transfusion status into the DIPSS prognostic model for PMF. Unfavorable karyotype or platelets <100 × 109/L is associated with a significantly higher risk of leukemic transformation in PMF. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Abstract 4122 Background: We have previously identified sole +9, 13q- or 20q- as “favorable” and sole +8 or complex karyotype as “unfavorable” cytogenetic abnormalities in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) (Blood 2010; 115: 496). The purpose of the current study, which includes more than twice the number of patients included in previous studies, was to identify additional prognostically-relevant cytogenetic abnormalities in PMF and refine cytogenetic risk categorization for overall and leukemia-free survival. Methods: Clinical and laboratory data were collected from consecutive patients with PMF seen at our institution and in whom cytogenetic information at or within 1 year of diagnosis was available. Diagnosis of PMF and acute myeloid leukemia were according to the World Health organization (WHO) criteria. Results: A total of 433 patients with PMF were included in the current study. Median age at diagnosis was 65 years. IPSS risk distributions were low in 12% of patients, intermediate-1 in 25%, intermediate-2 in 24% and high in 39%. JAK2V617F mutational frequency was 60%. Cytogenetic findings were normal in 275 (64%) patients. Among the 158 (36%) patients with abnormal karyotype, 109 (69% of abnormal cases) represented sole abnormalities, 23 (15%) two abnormalities and 26 (17%) three or more (i.e. complex) abnormalities. In an effort to identify cytogenetic categories of similar prognosis, each one of 12 operational cytogenetic categories was separately compared with both normal and complex karyotype. Accordingly, we were able to devise a two-tired cytogenetic risk stratification with highly significant differences in overall and leukemia-free survival (Figures 1 and 2): unfavorable (complex karyotype or sole or two abnormalities that include +8, -7/7q-, i(17q), inv(3), -5/5q-, 12p- or 11q23 rearrangement) and favorable (all other cytogenetic findings including normal karyotype). Median survivals of patients with favorable and unfavorable karyotype were 5.2 and 2.0 years, respectively (p<0.0001). The corresponding 5-year survival rates were 51% and 8% (HR 3.1, 95% CI 2.2–4.3; p<0.0001). Multivariable analysis confirmed the IPSS-independent prognostic value of cytogenetic risk categorization (p<0.0001; HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5–3.1) and also identified thrombocytopenia (platelet count < 100 × 109/L) as another independent predictor of inferior survival (p<0.0001; HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4–2.6). A similar multivariable analysis showed that cytogenetic risk profile (p=0.001; HR 4.1, 95% CI 1.7–9.6) and platelet count (p=0.04; HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–5.0), but not IPSS (p=0.27), predicted leukemia-free survival; the 5-year leukemic transformation rates for unfavorable and favorable karyotype were 46% and 7%, respectively (HR 5.5, 95% CI 2.5–12.0; p<0.0001). These results, in terms of both overall and leukemia-free survival analysis, did not change when patients receiving allo-SCT were censored at the time of their transplant. Among patients with favorable karyotype; the incidences of leukopenia and thrombocytopenia were highest in patients with sole 20q- (41% and 38%, respectively) and lowest in those with sole 13q- (0% and 0%, respectively). Conclusions: The current study provides the rationale and necessary details for incorporating cytogenetic findings and platelet count in future prognostic models for PMF. The study also revealed a highly significant association between sole 20q- and both leukopenia and thrombocytopenia, which suggests a 20q- haploinsufficient gene effect. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Abstract 3069 Background: Monosomal karyotype (MK) is defined as the presence of two or more distinct autosomal chromosome monosomies or a single autosomal monosomy associated with at least one structural abnormality (Breems DA et al. J Clin Oncol 2008; 26: 4791). In acute myeloid leukemia (AML), MK has been shown to be prognostically worse than complex or other unfavorable karyotype (Breems DA et al. J Clin Oncol 2008; 26: 4791). In primary myelofibrosis (PMF), complex karyotype or isolated trisomy 8 predicts inferior survival (Hussein K et al. Blood 2010; 115: 496). Objective: To determine if MK in PMF is prognostically distinct from previously defined poor cytogenetic risk categories including complex karyotype and isolated trisomy 8. Methods: The Mayo Clinic database for PMF was used to identify consecutive patients with unfavorable karyotype including complex karyotype and sole trisomy 8. WHO criteria were used for PMF diagnosis and leukemic transformation (Vardiman JW et al. Blood 2009; 114: 937). Results: Among 793 PMF patients with cytogenetic information at the time of their first time referral to the Mayo Clinic, 452 displayed a normal karyotype and 341 (43%) an abnormal karyotype. Of the latter, 41 (12%) displayed complex karyotype and 21 (6%) sole trisomy 8. Among the 41 patients with complex karyotype, 17 (42%) met the criteria for MK and 24 (58%) displayed complex karyotype without monosomies. Overall survival was significantly inferior in patients with MK compared to those with either complex karyotype without monosomies (p=0.02; HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–4.8) or trisomy 8 (p=0.02; HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2–5.1) (Fig. 1). Prognosis among all three groups was significantly worse than patients with normal karyotype (Fig. 1). Leukemia-free survival was also significantly inferior in patients with MK compared to those with either complex karyotype without monosomies (p=0.02; HR 6.9, 95% CI 1.3–37.3) or trisomy 8 (p=0.02; HR 14.8, 95% CI 1.7–130.8) (Fig. 2). LFS in patients with normal karyotype was similar to those with either complex karyotype without monosomies (p=0.31) or trisomy 8 (p=0.86) (Figure 2). Conclusions: Monosomal karyotype in PMF is distinctly associated with extremely poor overall and leukemia-free survivals that are significantly worse than those seen in PMF patients with other unfavorable karyotype including complex karyotype without monosomies and sole trisomy 8 abnormalities. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Abstract 3068 Background: Abnormal cytokine expression accompanies the disease process in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and the levels of proinflammatory cytokines have been shown to be down-regulated by JAK inhibitor therapy. The prognostic relevance of increased cytokine levels in PMF has not been systematically studied. The objectives of the current study were to describe the spectrum of abnormal cytokine expression in PMF and determine its prognostic relevance. Methods: A multiplex biometric sandwich immunoassay (Invitrogen multiplex assays, Invitrogen Corporation-Carlsbad CA, USA) was used for simultaneous analysis of 30 cytokine levels. Diluted plasma was mixed with fluorescently addressed microbeads bound with anti-cytokine antibodies. Biotin anticytokine secondary antibodies were then added and allowed to bind to cytokine-bead complexes. Total surface fluorescence for each bead was then measured using a Luminex (Luminex Corporation, Austin, TX, USA) fluorescent flow-based detection system. Results: Cytokine levels at diagnosis were analyzed for a total of 127 treatment naïve patients with PMF, who had stored sera at the time of diagnosis or first referral to the Mayo Clinic. The circulating levels of 30 cytokines in the multiplex assay were compared between PMF patients (n=127) and normal controls (n=31). Significant differences (p<0.05) were evident for 20 of the 30 cytokines: IL-1b, IL-1RA, IL-2R,IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IL- 15, TNF-α, G-CSF, INF-α, INF-γ, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, HGF, CXCL10, MIG, MCP-1 and VEGF. On univariate analysis, increased levels of 9 of these 20 cytokines were associated with shortened survival (p<0.05): IL-1RA, IL-2R, IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, IL-15, MIP-1α, CXCL10 and MIG. On multivariable analysis, 4 of these 9 cytokines maintained their prognostic value for survival: IL-2R (p=0.0011), IL-8 (p<0.0001), IL-15 (p=0.0124) and CXCL10 (p=0.0031). The independent prognostic value of these 4 cytokines was sustained during additional multivariable analysis that included the Dynamic International Prognostic System Score and cytogenetic risk category. Next, we divided the 127 patients into three cytokine risk categories based on the serum levels of IL-2R, IL-8, IL-15 and CXCL10: none elevated, one or two elevated and three or four elevated. The respective median survivals were 69, 37 and 19 months (p=0.01; Figure 1) and such cytokine risk categorization was both DIPSS and cytogenetic risk independent; p values for multivariable analysis including cytokine, DIPSS, cytogenetic risk groups were 0.02, 0.0001 and 0.004, respectively. Conclusions: Elevated serum levels of IL-2R, IL-8, IL- 15 and CXCL10 independently predict shortened survival in PMF and such prognostication appears to be independent of DIPSS and cytogenetic risk category. The current study suggests clinical relevance of multiple cytokines in PMF that could be therapeutically targeted. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification. We developed a prognostic model to predict survival at diagnosis, named IPSET (International Prognostic Score for ET), studying patients with WHO-defined ET. Age 60 years or older, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and prior thrombosis significantly affected survival, by multivariable Cox regression. On the basis of the hazard ratio, we assigned 2 points to age and 1 each to leukocyte count and thrombosis. So, the IPSET model allocated 867 patients into 3 risk categories with significantly different survival: low (sum of points = 0; median survival not reached), intermediate (sum = 1-2; median survival 24.5 years), and high (sum = 3-4, median survival 13.8 years). The IPSET model was further validated in 2 independent cohorts including 132 WHO-defined ET and 234 Polycythemia Vera Study Group–defined ET patients. The IPSET model was able to predict the occurrence of thrombosis, and not to predict post-ET myelofibrosis. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age ≥ 60 years, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET and the validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET.

Abstract DIPSS-plus (the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System-plus) includes 8 risk factors for survival in primary myelofibrosis. In the present study of 884 karyotypically annotated patients with primary myelofibrosis, we sought to identify 1 or 2 parameters that can reliably predict death in the first 2 years of disease. After a median of 8.2 years from time of referral to the Mayo Clinic, 564 deaths (64% of patients in the study) had been recorded. Risk factors associated with > 80% 2-year mortality included monosomal karyotype, inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities, or any 2 of the following: circulating blasts > 9%, leukocytes ≥ 40 × 109/L, or other unfavorable karyotype. Patients with any 1 of these risk profiles (n = 52) displayed significantly shorter overall survival than those otherwise belonging to a high-risk category per DIPSS-plus (n = 298); respective median survivals were 9 and 23 months (hazard ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.6-3.1; P < .01). The present information complements DIPSS-plus in the selection of primary myelofibrosis patients for high-risk treatment approaches.