Karahalios, Amalia

Abstract Background Being able to estimate the risk of metachronous disease in a patient with colorectal cancer (CRC) could enable risk-appropriate surveillance. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-prediction model to estimate individual 10-year risk of metachronous disease following a CRC diagnosis. Methods A population-based cohort of patients with CRC was recruited soon after diagnosis between 1997 and 2012 from the United States, Canada, and Australia. Cox regression with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization was used to identify factors that predicted the risk of a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC diagnosis. Potential predictors included demography, anthropometry, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, personal and family cancer history, medication use, age at diagnosis, and pathological features of the first CRC. Internal validation through bootstrapping was used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration. Results We included 6085 CRC cases; 138 (2.3%) of these cases were diagnosed with metachronous disease over a median of 12 years (IQR = 5-17 years). Metachronous CRC risk was predicted by body mass index; smoking status; level of physical activity; family history of cancer and synchronous CRC; stage, grade, histological type, and DNA mismatch repair status; and age at diagnosis of the first CRC. The model was valid with a C statistic of 0.65 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.68) and a calibration slope of 0.873 (SD = 0.087). Conclusions Metachronous CRC can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using a prediction model that consists of clinical variables collected as part of routine practice.

AbstractSurvivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer ‐ metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population‐based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow‐up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person‐years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4‐fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89–5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR‐deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11–2.64) compared to those with MMR‐proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06–0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR‐deficient.