Siddiqi, Harris

Background: Qualification of non-invasive tests (NITs) and blood biomarkers for fibrosis severity and risk assessment is an unmet need in clinical care for cirrhosis. The paucity of reproducibility data for imaging and blood biomarkers in cirrhosis hinders their application for longitudinal monitoring. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reproducibility of imaging and blood biomarkers in a prospective cohort of adults with cirrhosis. Methods: We prospectively enrolled adults with cirrhosis in an observational, longitudinal cohort study. Participants completed a research visit with vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and blood testing, including AST, ALT, platelets, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4). Biomarkers were repeated a median of 3 months apart without any interim intervention. The primary outcome was the reproducibility of each biomarker as assessed by the reproducibility coefficient (RDC%), within-participant coefficient of variation (wCV), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and Bland–Altman analysis. Results: In total, 40 participants (mean age 62, 60% female, mean BMI 28.6 kg/m 2 ) had VCTE/CAP, 38 AST/ALT, and 26 had AFP at both time points. The RDC% for VCTE-LSM was 54.4, wCV 0.19, and ICC 0.91. VCTE CAP had an RDC% of 56, a wCV of 0.30, and ICC 0.47. AFP had an RDC% of 58, a wCV of 0.21, and an ICC of 0.95. RDC% for AST, ALT, and FIB-4 ranged from 70% to 79%. On Bland–Altman analyses, VCTE-LSM demonstrated the lowest relative bias (0.4%). Conclusions: Prospective assessment of repeat biomarkers in adults with cirrhosis found that VCTE-LSM and CAP provide consistent assessments across individuals but may yield substantial within-individual variation. Blood-based biomarkers had poor reproducibility within individuals but were consistent in detecting between-patient variability. These data can inform ultrasound-based non-invasive testing qualification by defining thresholds that may reflect measurement variability rather than true biologic change over time.

SummaryBackground and AimsMagnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and vibration‐controlled transient elastography (VCTE) have the potential to assess disease progression; however, repeatability data in people with cirrhosis are lacking. We aimed to assess the effect of disease severity on measurement variability and contribute to the evidentiary basis for the qualification of repeating liver stiffness measurements (LSM) in practice and research.MethodsThis prospective study included 49 adult participants (58.3% female) with cirrhosis who underwent same‐day repeat LSM examinations. The primary outcome was the same‐day, same‐operator repeatability coefficient% (RC%) and the within‐case coefficient of variation (wCV) for each modality. Secondary outcomes include the intra‐class correlation coefficient (ICC). The relationship between measurement variability (interquartile for VCTE, standard deviation for MRE) and disease severity (mean liver stiffness) was evaluated by linear regression with the coefficient of determination R2 reported.ResultsSame‐day repeat MRE and VCTE exams were prospectively conducted in 33 and 45 participants, respectively. The RC% appeared 82% higher for VCTE versus MRE (38% vs. 21%), with consistent findings in head‐to‐head analyses. The wCV for VCTE and MRE was 14% and 8% respectively, indicating VCTE has 75% higher within‐subject measurement variation than MRE. ICC was excellent for LSM by VCTE (0.92) and MRE (0.96). Measurement variability increased with mean liver stiffness for VCTE (R2 = 0.78) and MRE (R2 = 0.93).ConclusionBoth VCTE and MRE demonstrated increased measurement variability with disease severity. However, MRE outperformed VCTE in terms of technical repeatability in patients with cirrhosis. These repeatability estimates may improve the qualification of NITs in practice.

SummaryBackground & AimsThe natural progression of hepatic decompensation in metabolic dysfunction‐associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is not well‐characterised. We aimed to describe it by conducting a retrospective analysis.MethodsThis longitudinal, retrospective analysis of well‐characterised MASLD cohorts followed for hepatic decompensation and death. The sequence of liver‐related events was evaluated, and the median time between hepatic decompensation episodes and death versus. transplantation was measured.ResultsOf the 2016 patients identified, 220 (11%) developed at least one episode of hepatic decompensation during a median follow‐up of 3.2 years. Ascites was the most common first liver‐related event [153 (69.5%)], followed by hepatic encephalopathy (HE) [55 (25%)] and variceal haemorrhage (VH) [30 (13.6%)]. Eighteen out of the 220 (8.1%) patients had more than one liver‐related event as their first hepatic decompensation. Among the patients who had the first episode, 87 (39.5%) had a second episode [44 (50.5%) HE, 31 (35.6%) ascites, and 12 (13.7%) VH]. Eighteen out of 220 (8.1%) had a third episode [10 (55.5%) HE, 6 (33.3%) VH, and 2 (11.1%) ascites]. Seventy‐three out of 220 (33.1%) died, and 31 (14%) received liver transplantation. The median time from the first episode to the second was 0.7 years and 1.3 years from the second episode to the third. The median survival time from the first episode to death or transplantation was 2.0 years.ConclusionThe most common first liver‐related event in MASLD patients is ascites. The median survival from the first hepatic decompensation to either death or transplantation is 2 years.

SummaryBackgroundProgression to cirrhosis in non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with a decrease in liver fat. However, the prognostic significance of liver fat content in NASH‐related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis is unclear.AimTo investigate the risk of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality stratified by liver fat content in NASH‐related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis.MethodsIn this meta‐analysis of individual participant data, 456 patients with both magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and MRI‐derived protein density fat fraction (MRI‐PDFF) were enrolled, and 296 patients with longitudinal follow‐up were analysed. MRE combined with fibrosis‐4 (MEFIB‐index), and MRI‐PDFF were used to measure liver fibrosis and fat, respectively. MEFIB‐negative, MEFIB‐positive+ MRI‐PDFF ≥5% and MEFIB‐positive+ MRI‐PDFF <5% were defined as no significant liver fibrosis, NASH with significant fibrosis and higher liver fat content, and NASH with significant fibrosis and low liver fat content groups, respectively. The primary outcome was hepatic decompensation, HCC and death.ResultsThe rates of decompensation, HCC and mortality were highest in the NASH with significant fibrosis and low liver fat group (33%, 17% and 17%, respectively), followed by the NASH with significant fibrosis and higher liver fat group (18%, 13% and 13% respectively), and lowest in the no significant fibrosis (MEFIB‐negative) group (0%, 1% and 2% respectively). In multivariable‐adjusted analysis, low liver fat content was strongly associated (HR = 42.2 [95% CI: 7.5–235.5, p < 0.0001]) with HCC, decompensation and death. Sensitivity analyses for patients with cirrhosis (MRE ≥5 kPa) determined consistent findings.ConclusionsLow liver fat content in patients with burnt‐out NASH‐related significant fibrosis and cirrhosis is associated with an increase in hepatic decompensation, HCC and mortality.

Summary Background There are limited data regarding the longitudinal association between MEFIB‐Index (MRE combined with FIB‐4) versus MAST‐Score (MRI‐aspartate aminotransferase) and hepatic decompensation. Aim To examine the longitudinal association between MEFIB‐Index versus MAST‐Score in predicting hepatic decompensation in patients with metabolic dysfunction‐associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Methods This was a longitudinal, retrospective analysis of subjects from United States, Japan, and Turkey who underwent a baseline MRE and MRI‐PDFF and were followed for hepatic decompensation. Cox‐proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the association between MEFIB‐Index versus MAST‐Score with a composite primary outcome (hepatic decompensation) defined as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and varices needing treatment. Results This meta‐analysis of individual participants (IPDMA) included 454 patients (58% women) with a mean (±SD) age of 56.0 (±13.5) years. The MEFIB‐Index (MRE ≥3.3 kPa + FIB 4 ≥1.6) and MAST‐Score (>0.242) were positive for 34% and 9% of the sample, respectively. At baseline, 23 patients met criteria for hepatic decompensation. Among 297 patients with available longitudinal data with a median (IQR) of 4.2 (5.0) years of follow‐up, 25 incident cases met criteria for hepatic decompensation. A positive MEFIB‐Index [HR = 49.22 (95% CI: 6.23–388.64, p < 0.001)] and a positive MAST‐Score [HR = 3.86 (95% CI: 1.46–10.17, p < 0.001)] were statistically significant predictors of the incident hepatic decompensation. MEFIB‐Index ( c ‐statistic: 0.89, standard error (SE) = 0.02) was statistically superior to the MAST‐Score ( c ‐statistic: 0.81, SE = 0.03) ( p < 0.0001) in predicting hepatic decompensation. Conclusion A combination of MRI‐based biomarker and blood tests, MEFIB‐Index and MAST‐Score can predict the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with MASLD.