Mertens, Ann C.

Abstract Female breast cancer is a common cancer in young adults, an age group with the highest uninsured rate. Among 51 675 young adult women (ages 18-39 years) diagnosed with breast cancer between 2011 and 2018 in the National Cancer Database, we estimated changes in guideline-concordant treatment receipt, treatment timeliness, and survival associated with the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion. Of young adults with stage I-III estrogen receptor–positive or progesterone receptor–positive breast cancer, Medicaid expansion was associated with a net increase of 2.42 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.56 to 4.28 percentage points) in the percentage receiving endocrine therapy. Among all young adults with stage I-III breast cancer, Medicaid expansion was associated with a net reduction of 1.65 percentage points (95% CI = 0.08 to 3.22 percentage points) in treatment delays defined as treatment initiation of at least 60 days after diagnosis and a net increase of 1.00 percentage points (95% CI = 0.21 to 1.79 percentage points) in 2-year overall survival. Our study provides evidence of benefit in cancer care and outcomes from Medicaid expansion among the young adult population.

1509 Background: Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act has been shown to increase insurance coverage and early-stage cancer diagnoses for young adults (YAs), the age group with the highest uninsured rate. We examined whether Medicaid expansion was associated with increased receipt of timely, guideline-concordant treatment and survival among YA women newly diagnosed with breast cancer, the most common YA cancer diagnosis. Methods: Using the National Cancer Database, we identified 51,675 women aged 18-39 years who were diagnosed with breast cancer in 2011-2018. We applied the difference-in-differences (DD) method to estimate outcome changes pre vs. post Medicaid expansion, in expansion- vs. non-expansion states. Linear probability models estimated associations of Medicaid expansion with receipt of guideline-concordant treatment – including any endocrine therapy among women with ER-positive or PR-positive breast cancer, and any chemotherapy or targeted therapy among women with ER-negative and PR-negative breast cancer – and initiation of guideline-concordant treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, or targeted therapy for stage I-III diagnoses, and systemic therapy for stage IV diagnoses) <60 days after diagnosis. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate 2-year overall survival. DD models also adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, rurality, zip code-level income, comorbidity, and diagnosis year, with standard errors clustered at the state level. Analyses were stratified by stage at diagnosis (stage I-III vs. IV). Results: Of the subset of women with stage I-III ER-positive or PR-positive breast cancer, the percentage receiving endocrine therapy increased in expansion states (85.20% pre-expansion to 86.46% post-expansion), but decreased in non-expansion states (84.32% to 82.79%), resulting in a net increase of 2.42 percentage points (ppt; 95% CI = 0.56 to 4.28) associated with Medicaid expansion in the adjusted DD model. Among all women with stage I-III breast cancer, the percentage with treatment initiation <60 days after diagnosis decreased less in expansion states (84.10% pre-expansion to 82.36% post-expansion) than in non-expansion states (86.95% to 83.98%), resulting in a net reduction of 1.61 ppt (95% CI = 0.05 to 3.18) in treatment delays associated with Medicaid expansion. Notably, the 2-year overall survival increased in expansion states (96.84% pre-expansion to 96.99% post-expansion), but decreased in non-expansion states (97.24% to 96.30%), resulting in a net survival increase of 1.00 ppt (95% CI = 0.21 to 1.79) associated with Medicaid expansion. Conclusions: Among YA women with stage I-III breast cancer, Medicaid expansion was associated with increased receipt of guideline-concordant treatment, reduced delays in treatment initiation, and improved 2-year survival.