Duarte, Julio D.

ABSTRACT Ischemic events after contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are uncommon but carry high morbidity/mortality. Identifying patients at highest risk is critical to guide dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) intensity while minimizing bleeding. Current machine learning (ML) model‐developed risk scores do not incorporate pharmacogenetic data. To develop and externally validate ML models that integrate clinical, demographic, and CYP2C19 genetic information to predict 1‐year ischemic outcomes post‐PCI to refine clinical decision making. We analyzed 8317 patients from TAILOR‐PCI trial ( n = 4572) and the Precision PCI registry ( n = 3745). The outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and stent thrombosis at 1 year. Boruta feature selection identified 11 predictors. Multiple ML algorithms were trained in TAILOR‐PCI and validated in Precision PCI using cross‐validation and synthetic minority oversampling (SMOTE). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. The best external performance was achieved with a support vector machine (SVM, polynomial kernel) (AUC 0.667; sensitivity 0.871; specificity 0.282), while XGBoost provided a more balanced profile (AUC 0.619; sensitivity 0.442; specificity 0.688). Variable importance for the SVM polynomial model demonstrated that all 11 included Boruta feature selected predictors had relatively high importance (> 75). ML models trained on large clinical trial and real‐world registry datasets can help identify the small subset of patients at high ischemic risk after PCI. This distinction is of relevance because ischemic events are rare, and most patients may safely de‐escalate DAPT to reduce bleeding risk while maintaining ischemic protection through a multimodal approach to risk stratification. Trial Registration: TAILOR‐PCI URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01742117

Introduction: Identifying patients at risk for ischemic events after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) relies on traditional analysis of limited clinical and imaging variables. Machine learning (ML) has shown promise in effectively predicting cardiovascular risk in population studies. While existing ML models mainly predict mortality and incorporate clinical variables, there is a lack of tools that have utilized genetic data and that predict ischemic events. Aims: This study aims to develop and validate a ML model incorporating genotyping and clinical data to enhance prediction of ischemic outcomes for PCI patients utilizing large prospectively derived diverse datasets. Methods: Patients from the TAILOR-PCI trial (n=5302) were utilized for model development. 50% of the sample was utilized for Boruta feature selection and 50% for training and testing using cross validation. Features included demographics, medical history, medications, PCI characteristics, and genetic data (specifically, CYP2C19 *2, *3, *17 alleles). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, stent thrombosis, and severe recurrent ischemia at 12 months. Multiple ML classification algorithms, including Support Vector Machine (SVM) polynomial, Random Forest, Light gradient boost, XG Boost, among others, were benchmarked for their prediction performance on rare events. The top performing classifiers were externally validated on an independent dataset from the PRECISION PCI study (n=3,745). Results: Mean participant age of the training set was 64.2 ± 11.0 years, with 75.4% being male. During follow-up of 12 months, among 4,572 patients in the entire cohort 343 (7.5%) met the primary outcome. The SVM polynomial model demonstrated the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67 for predicting the primary outcome with test dataset. The sensitivity, specificity, precision, and recall were 0.87, 0.28, 0.07, and 0.87 respectively (Figure). Peripheral arterial disease, body mass index, and age were among the top variables by feature importance. Conclusion: ML models incorporating both clinical and genetic data are feasible and highly promising in predicting major adverse cardiac events that may help guide use of anti-platelet drug therapy. The AUC values are reasonable given imbalances and misclassifications in datasets, and further model optimization with prospective utilization of the model will be paramount.

Pharmacogenetics can improve clinical outcomes by reducing adverse drug effects and enhancing therapeutic efficacy for commonly used drugs that treat a wide range of cardiovascular diseases. One of the major barriers to the clinical implementation of cardiovascular pharmacogenetics is limited education on this field for current healthcare providers and students. The abundance of pharmacogenetic literature underscores its promise, but it can also be challenging to learn such a wealth of information. Moreover, current clinical recommendations for cardiovascular pharmacogenetics can be confusing because they are outdated, incomplete, or inconsistent. A myriad of misconceptions about the promise and feasibility of cardiovascular pharmacogenetics among healthcare providers also has halted clinical implementation. Therefore, the main goal of this tutorial is to provide introductory education on the use of cardiovascular pharmacogenetics in clinical practice. The target audience is any healthcare provider (or student) with patients that use or have indications for cardiovascular drugs. This tutorial is organized into the following 6 steps: (1) understand basic concepts in pharmacogenetics; (2) gain foundational knowledge of cardiovascular pharmacogenetics; (3) learn the different organizations that release cardiovascular pharmacogenetic guidelines and recommendations; (4) know the current cardiovascular drugs/drug classes to focus on clinically and the supporting evidence; (5) discuss an example patient case of cardiovascular pharmacogenetics; and (6) develop an appreciation for emerging areas in cardiovascular pharmacogenetics. Ultimately, improved education among healthcare providers on cardiovascular pharmacogenetics will lead to a greater understanding for its potential in improving outcomes for a leading cause of morbidity and mortality.