Newell, Mary Kate

Abstract Purpose To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2026 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. Methods Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2026 were reviewed—including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, specialty drugs, and vaccines. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates for growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2026 were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. Results In 2025, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 12.7% compared to 2024, for a total of $915.2 billion. Utilization (a 9.3% increase) drove this increase, while growth due to new drugs (0.9%) and price increases (1.2%) had a modest impact. Tirzepatide was the new top drug in 2025, followed by semaglutide and apixiban. Drug expenditures were $42.9 billion (a 9.6% increase) and $190.5 billion (a 19.0% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and in clinics, respectively. In clinics, volume drove drug expense growth, contributing with a 13.6% increase, while price and new drugs each contributed with a 2.7% increase. In nonfederal hospitals, expenditure growth was driven by increases in volume (4.6%), new products (3.7%), and prices (1.5%). Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2026. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. Conclusion For 2026, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 10.0% to 12.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 14.0%-16.0% and 4.0%-6.0%, respectively, compared to 2025. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending

Abstract Purpose To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2025 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. Methods Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2025 were reviewed—including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, specialty drugs and vaccines. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2024 were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. Results In 2024, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 10.2% compared to 2023, for a total of $805.9 billion. Utilization (a 7.9% increase) and new drugs (a 2.5% increase) drove this increase, while prices remained flat (a 0.2% decrease). Semaglutide was the top drug in 2024, followed by tirzepatide and adalimumab. Drug expenditures were $39.0 billion (a 4.9% increase) and $158.2 billion (a 14.4% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, increased utilization drove growth, with a small contribution from new products, while prices remained flat. In nonfederal hospitals, new products, price, and new volume each contributed modestly to growth in spend. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2025. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. Conclusion For 2025, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 9.0 to 11.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate an 11.0% to 13.0% increase and a 2.0% to 4.0% increase, respectively, compared to 2024. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Abstract Purpose To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2024 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. Methods Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2024 were reviewed—including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2024 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. Results In 2023, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 13.6% compared to 2022, for a total of $722.5 billion. Utilization (a 6.5% increase), new drugs (a 4.2% increase) and price (a 2.9% increase) drove this increase. Semaglutide was the top drug in 2023, followed by adalimumab and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.1 billion (a 1.1% decrease) and $135.7 billion (a 15.0% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, increased utilization drove growth, with a small impact from price and new products. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led the decrease in expenditures, with price and new drugs modestly contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2024. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. Conclusion For 2024, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 10.0% to 12.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate an 11.0% to 13.0% increase and a 0% to 2.0% increase, respectively, compared to 2023. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Abstract Purpose To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2023 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. Methods Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2023 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, diabetes medications, generics, COVID-19 pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2023 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. Results In 2022, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 9.4% compared to 2021, for a total of $633.5 billion. Utilization (a 5.9% increase), price (a 1.7% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase. Adalimumab was the top-selling drug in 2022, followed by semaglutide and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.2 billion (a 5.9% decrease) and $116.9 billion (a 10.4% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, new products and increased utilization growth drove growth, with a small impact from price changes. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led to a decrease in expenditures, with price changes and new drugs contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending have been or are expected to be approved in 2023. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion For 2023, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 6.0% to 8.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 8.0% to 10.0% and 1.0% to 3.0%, respectively, compared to 2022. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.