Cazzola, Mario

Abstract Abstract 1746 Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification, that provides a guideline to distinguish ET from early/prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis. These two conditions differ in term of disease evolution and survival (Barbui et al, J. Clin. Oncol. 2011). To design a prognostic model for survival in WHO-defined ET (International Prognostic Score for Essential Thrombocythemia, IPSET), we studied 891 patients with strict WHO diagnostic criteria. Demographics have been presented elsewhere (Barbui et al, J. Clin. Oncol. 2011). We tested the prognostic impact on survival of age, prior thrombosis, leukocyte count, platelet count, hemoglobin level, JAK mutational status, splenomegaly. Harrell's C concordance statistics were used to set the best cutoff levels of continuous variables in order to predict survival. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression showed that age over 60 years (P<.0001), leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L (P<.0001), anemia (P=.04), platelet count greater than 1000 x109/L (P<.004) and prior history of thrombosis (P< 0001) were significant risk factors for survival. Age over 60 years (hazard ratio-HR- 6.5, 95% CI: 3.9–10.7; P<.0001), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 109/L (HR: 3.1, 95% CI: 2–4.7; P<.0001) and prior history of thrombosis (HR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9–4.5; P< 0001) retained statistical significance on survival by multivariable analysis and were included in the new prognostic model. We assigned each factor an integer weight close to the corresponding HR in the multivariable Cox regression: weight 2 for age over 60 years; weight 1 for leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L and for prior thrombosis. Finally, we defined the IPSET score by allocating patients into three risk categories with significantly different survival according to the sum of weights: low risk (sum of weights=0; n= 342; median survival not reached), intermediate risk (sum=1-2; N=374; median survival 24.5 years), and high risk (sum=3-4, n=158; median survival 13.8 years). Fisher exact test did not reveal a difference in the distribution of the causes of death among IPSET categories. We validated the model in two independent cohorts: one from Germany (132 WHO-defined ET) and another from France (234 ET patients not strictly diagnosed according to WHO). Log rank test and Cox regression showed significant differences in term of survival among IPSET categories in both series. Finally, we designed an age-specific IPSET model for patients younger than 60 years (IPSET-y). Using the same methodology, we found that age over 45 years (weight 2), leukocyte count greater than 11 × 109/L (weight 1) and prior history of thrombosis (weight 1) were independent risk factors for survival. IPSET-y defined three risk categories (LR, sum=0; IR, sum=1-2; HR, sum=3–4) with a median survival not reached in LR and IR, and of 22.3 years in HR. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age over 60 years, leukocyte count greater than 11 x109/L and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET. The validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET. IPSET models may be useful for treatment decision-making. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Italfarmaco: Consultancy; Novartis: Honoraria. Gisslinger:AOP Orphan Pharmaceuticals AG: Research Funding.

Abstract Abstract 3833 Background: Survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is assessed by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) (Blood 2010;115:1703) and DIPSS-plus (JCO 2011;29:392). The latter is based on eight risk factors including age>65 years, constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin <10 g/dL, red blood cell transfusion need, leukocyte count >25 × 109/L, platelet count <100 × 109/L, peripheral blood (PB) blasts ≥1% and unfavorable karyotype. Recent studies have highlighted the prognostic significance of monosomal karyotype (MK) (Blood 2011;117:5612), unfavorable karyotype (Leukemia 2011;25:82) and platelet count <100 × 109/L ((JCO 2011;29:392), for leukemic transformation (LT) in PMF. Methods: A combination of multivariable and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were applied to a Mayo Clinic database of 884 karyotypically-annotated patients with PMF, in order to define karyotype-dependent and karyotype-independent risk models for LT. The karyotype-independent model was further validated in a separate cohort of 525 PMF patients from an international database (Blood 2010;115:1703). Patients in the Mayo cohort were evaluated at time of referral and those of the international database at time of initial diagnosis. Results I: Sixty cases of LT were documented. Karyotype (categorized into MK, inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities, other unfavorable, and favorable), PB blast percentage (as a continuous variable), and platelet count (as a continuous variable) were the most reliable (p<0.01) in predicting leukemia-free survival (LFS). The best discriminant levels for inferior LFS were MK (HR 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.1), inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities (HR 7.6, 95% CI 1.8–33.3), PB blast ≥2% (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4–4.2) and platelet count ≤41 × 109/L (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3–5.1). MK and inv(3)/i(17q) abnormalities were subsequently consolidated into one “very high risk” cytogenetic category (n =27), with a corresponding HR of 6.6 (95% CI 2.7–16.0). HR-based risk scores were assigned to “very high risk” karyotype (2 points), PB blast ≥2% (one point) and platelet count ≤50 × 109/L (one point) to classify patients into low (no adverse points; n =522), intermediate (one adverse point; n =290) and high risk (two or more adverse points; n =72) groups; the corresponding 3-year LT rates were 3%, 10% (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–4.6) and 35% (HR 9.4, 95% CI 4.7–18.7) (Figure 1). Results II: The karyotype-independent model was based on PB blast percentage and platelet count only; low-risk (no adverse points; n =525), intermediate-risk (one adverse point; n =311) and high-risk (two adverse points; n =48); the corresponding 3-year LT rates were 3%, 12% (HR 3.1, 95% CI 1.8–5.4; p<0.0001) and 25% (HR 6.0, 95% CI 2.6–14.1). The karyotype-independent model was validated in a separate cohort of 525 PMF patients with 70 documented cases of LT, from an international database (Blood 2010;115:1703). Conclusions: The current leukemia risk models are applicable at diagnosis or during follow-up, in the presence or absence of cytogenetic information, and complement DIPSS-plus in the comprehensive prognostication of patients with PMF. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Novartis: Honoraria.

Abstract Philadelphia-negative Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (MPN) include Polycythemia Vera (PV), Essential Thrombocythemia (ET) and Myelofibrosis Primary (PMF) and secondary to PV and ET (PPV-, PET-MF); included are also some less characterized entities defined as unclassified MPN (U-MPN). Risk of arterial and venous thrombosis is increased in MPN patients, and thrombosis is one of most important causes of mortality and morbidity. The risk of venous thrombosis in unusual sites, such as splanchnic vessels (SVT), is particularly associated with MPN; SVT can lead to complications such as portal hypertension, esophageal and gastric varices, ascites and hepatic failure. A recent meta-analysis reported that a MPN is the underlying cause of portal vein thrombosis in 31.5% and of Budd Chiari syndrome in 40.9% of cases (Smalberg, 2012). A significant association of SVT with JAK2V617F mutated MPN was reported (Dentali, 2009) but study of other correlations has been hampered by heterogeneity of available patient cohorts comprising relatively small number of cases. We conducted a retrospective multicenter study collecting clinical and biological data of patients (pts) with SVT associated with MPN diagnosed according to WHO2008 criteria, aiming to describe patients’ characteristics, trends and prognostic factors, and their potential implications for clinical practice. Data were collected from 15 international hematology centers in the framework of IWG-MRT. We collected 475 cases of pts with portal, splenic or mesenteric vein thrombosis (75.2%) or Budd Chiari syndrome (24.8%) associated with MPN. In 32% of cases, simultaneous involvement of portal (69.1% of total thrombosis), splenic (30.5%) and mesenteric (25.3%) veins occurred, and in 1.7% they were associated with Budd Chiari syndrome. Frequency of MPN subtype: 38.1% ET (n=181), 34.9% PV (n=166), 16.2% MF (n=77), 10.8% U-MPN (n=51). Median follow-up 87.9 mo (range 0.5-430); female 61.3% (n=292; P<0.0001 vs male); median age at MPN diagnosis (dg) 44.4 y (range 12-90), at SVT dg 44.9 y (range 17-85). In 229 cases (48%) MPN and SVT dg were coincident, while in 104 (22%) SVT occurred before MPN dg (median 40 mo, range 5-335) and in 129 (27%) during MPN follow up (median 79 mo, range 5-394). JAK2V617F mutational status is available for 361 pts: 99% PV, 84.7% ET, 88.1% PMF and 92.9% U-MPN pts were JAK2V617F positive, with a mean allele burden of 56±27.4%, 33.1±25.5%, 39.3±19.4% and 23.8±11.9%, respectively. Erythropoietin-independent colonies (EEC) were present at diagnosis in 80/110 evaluated cases (72.7%), 38/47 PV (84.4%), 32/45 ET (71.1%), 8/11 PMF (72.7%) and 2/7 U-MPN (28.6%). A concurrent thrombophilic state was found in 38.9% of cases. A 12.3% of pts experienced a recurrence of SVT after a median of 29 mo (range 1-378.3) and 35.8% developed thrombosis in other sites (17.7% arterial, 19.3% venous). Esophageal varices were found in 70.6% from which 31.9% bled. MF transformation occurred in 32/166 PV (19%) and in 23/181 ET (13%) pts, with median time to progression of 122.3 mo (range 5.4-377.3) and 125.1 mo (range 39.3-255.3), respectively. Evolution to acute leukemia (AL) occurred in 12 pts (2.7%), of which 2 PMF, 6 PV and 4 ET. In 3 PV and 1 ET pts a PPV and PET-MF transformation occurred before AL. After SVT, 77% of pts received anticoagulation, 23.5% antiaggregant therapy and 1.5% both; 68.8% received cytotoxic drugs, 11.4% of pts were treated with trans jugular porto-systemic shunt. No differences in survival were noted with these approaches. Beta blocker therapy was used in 48.5% of pts and correlated with improved survival (p=0.041) At last follow up 70/473 pts (14.8%) died; causes of death are evolution to AL (16.4%), other cancers (14.5%), disease progression without AL (12.7%), SVT (10.9%), hepatic failure and venous thrombosis other than SVT (9.1% each), heart failure and arterial thrombosis (7.3% each), hemorrhage (5.5%), renal failure and infection (3.6% each). After 10 y follow up 8/166 PV (5%), 14/181 ET (8%), 14/77 PMF (18%) and 1/51 U-MPN (1.96%) pts died (p<0.01). Survival was significantly affected by occurrence of thrombosis other than SVT (p<0.0001) but not recurrence in splanchnic vessels (p=0.068). This large study confirms the strong association between JAK2V617F-mutated MPN and SVT and identifies the category of U-MPN as the prognostically more favorable; thrombosis at sites outside the splanchnic vasculature remains the leading cause of death. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Abstract 2849 Background We have previously reported on the natural history of polycythemia vera (PV), focusing primarily on overall and leukemia-free survival (ASH Annual Meeting Abstracts. 2011;118(21):277-). In the current study, we present, on behalf of the International Working Group for Myeloproliferative neoplasms Resarch and Treatment (IWG-MRT), our analysis regarding risk factors for thrombosis. Methods Under the auspices of IWG-MRT, seven international centers of excellence for myeloproliferative neoplasms participated in the current study. The two principle investigators (AT and TB) reviewed all the cases and selected 1,545 patients who met the 2008 WHO criteria for PV, were age 18 years or older, diagnosed after 1970, and whose submitted data included diagnostically essential information. Results I: Presenting Features Median age was 61 years (range, 18–95; 51% females). Arterial and venous thrombosis history before or at diagnosis was documented in 246 (16%) patients and 114 (7.4%) patients, respectively. Major hemorrhage hemorrhage before or at diagnosis was documented in 17 (4.5%) patients. Other features at diagnosis included pruritus (36%), microvascular disturbances (28.5%), palpable splenomegaly (36%), abnormal karyotype (12%), leukoerythroblastosis (6%), increased LDH (50%), thrombocytosis (53%), extreme thrombocytosis (platelets >1 million mm3; 4%) leukocytosis (49%), JAK2 V617F (95%), other JAK2 mutations (3%), subnormal serum erythropoietin (Epo) level (81%), and endogenous erythroid colonies (EEC; 73%). History of hypertension (46%), hyperlipidemia (18.3%), diabetes (8.4%), and tobacco use (16%) was also obtained. Results II: Clinical Course To date, 347 (23%) deaths, 50 (3%) leukemic progressions, and 138 (9%) fibrotic transformations have been recorded. Overall, cytoreductive treatment was not used in 416 (27%) patients and the remaining were exposed to different agents based on physician discretion. Post-diagnosis arterial or venous thrombosis occurred in 184 (12%) and 137 (9%) patients, respectively. Results III: Risk Factors for thrombosis Arterial and venous thrombosis-free survival, from time of diagnosis, were separately analyzed using the occurrence of thrombosis as the endpoint (uncensored variable) and last follow-up or death before thrombosis as the censored variable. In univariate analysis, the following were significantly associated with post-diagnosis arterial thrombosis: advanced age, leukocyte count, presence of a leukoerythroblastic smear (LES), history of hypertension and history of arterial thrombosis before or at diagnosis; multivariable analysis using all these five parameters identified arterial thrombosis history (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.6–4.0; p<0.0001), LES (RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–4.2; p=0.005) and history of hypertension (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.4; p=0.02) as independent predictors of post-diagnosis arterial thrombosis. Only two parameters predicted post-diagnosis venous thrombosis, in univariate analysis, and both remained significant during multivariable analysis: abnormal karyotype (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.7–5.4; p=0.0001) and history of venous thrombosis (RR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2–4.9). Of note, the type of JAK2 mutation or presence of either subnormal Epo or EEC did not influence either arterial or venous thrombosis. Results IV: Risk Stratification for arterial and venous thrombosis The figures below illustrated arterial or venous thrombosis-free survival of patients stratified by the absence of all risk factors or presence of one or ≥2 risk factors. For arterial thrombosis, the presence of ≥2 risk factors clearly delineated a high risk group (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.9–5.0) whereas the presence of one (RR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4–4.2) or two risk factors (RR 10.1, 95% CI 3.6–28.2) for venous thrombosis delineated an intermediate and high risk group, respectively. Conclusions: History of arterial thrombosis and venous thrombosis are key risk factors, respectively, for recurrent arterial and venous thrombosis in PV. In addition, abnormal karyotype is a strong independent risk factor for venous thrombosis and the presence of leukoerythroblastosis and hypertension, for arterial thrombosis. This information allows for a simple and practical risk stratification and raises interesting pathogenetic implications that require further clarification. Disclosures: Vannucchi: Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Gisslinger:Novartis: Consultancy, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Passamonti:Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sanofi-Aventis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.

Abstract Abstract 1729 Background: Primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm whose survival at diagnosis is predicted by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), which is based on the presence of the following five risk factors: age greater than 65 years, presence of constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin level below 10 g/dL, leukocyte count greater than 25 ×109/L, and circulating blast cells 1% or greater (Cervantes et al, Blood 2009). To allow dynamic prognostication at any time during follow up, we further developed the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS), based on the same IPSS-factors, but with different score values (one point for each risk factor, two points for acquisition of anemia) and with a distinct score model (low risk, LR, 0 points; intermediate-1 risk, Int-1R, 1–2 points; intermediate-2 risk, Int-2R, 3–4 points; high risk, HR, 5–6 points) (Passamonti et al, Blood 2010). The DIPSS model was also efficient in the prediction of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) evolution (Passamonti et al, Blood 2010) and in the assessment of survival and non-relapse mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (Scott et al, Blood 2012). Aim: The aim of the present study is to update outcome data of PMF patients included in the original series used to generate the DIPSS model and to assess the DIPSS prediction of survival in PMF patients with a longer follow up. The Institutional Review Board approved the study, and the procedures followed were in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Patients and methods: This study was performed on 520 of 525 regularly followed DIPSS-PMF patients, as five patients have been lost to follow up after the original publication. Results: Updated median follow up was of 4.1 years (range, 0.1–30.1). At the time of analysis 326 (63%) patients died, of whom 194 due to known causes: 69 AML, 16 non-AML disease progression, 21 bleeding, 17 thrombosis, 33 infections, 38 other. Median survival was 6 years (95% CI: 5.1–6.7). DIPSS stratification allowed different survivals in PMF patients even with a longer follow-up (Figure 1). Hence, to assess the time to DIPSS-category progression, we evaluated the median time spent within each risk group. This estimate revealed that the median time spent in each risk category was: 4.9 years in LR (range, 0–26.7), 2.1 years in Int-1R (range, 0–18.7), 1.7 years in Int-2R (range, 0–13.4), and 0.74 years in HR (range, 0–13.7). To investigate the prognostic role of the DIPSS score on survival, we analyzed the score as a categorical time-dependent covariate in a Cox survival regression model: the hazard ratio of shifting category from LR to Int-1R was 5.0 (95% CI: 2.4–10.6; P <0.001), it was 3.6 when shifting from Int-1R to Int-2R (95% CI: 2.6–4.9; P <0.001), and 2.7 (95% CI: 2.0–3.6; P <0.001) from Int-2R to HR. Conclusion: The updated analysis shows that the DIPSS model continues to predict survival in patients with PMF. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) are hematologically diverse stem cell malignancies sharing phenotypic features of both myelodysplastic syndromes and myeloproliferative neoplasms. There are currently no standard treatment recommendations for most adult patients with MDS/MPN. To optimize efforts to improve the management and disease outcomes, it is essential to identify meaningful clinical and biologic end points and standardized response criteria for clinical trials. The dual dysplastic and proliferative features in these stem cell malignancies define their uniqueness and challenges. We propose response assessment guidelines to harmonize future clinical trials with the principal objective of establishing suitable treatment algorithms. An international panel comprising laboratory and clinical experts in MDS/MPN was established involving 3 independent academic MDS/MPN workshops (March 2013, December 2013, and June 2014). These recommendations are the result of this collaborative project sponsored by the MDS Foundation.

Abstract Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification. We developed a prognostic model to predict survival at diagnosis, named IPSET (International Prognostic Score for ET), studying patients with WHO-defined ET. Age 60 years or older, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and prior thrombosis significantly affected survival, by multivariable Cox regression. On the basis of the hazard ratio, we assigned 2 points to age and 1 each to leukocyte count and thrombosis. So, the IPSET model allocated 867 patients into 3 risk categories with significantly different survival: low (sum of points = 0; median survival not reached), intermediate (sum = 1-2; median survival 24.5 years), and high (sum = 3-4, median survival 13.8 years). The IPSET model was further validated in 2 independent cohorts including 132 WHO-defined ET and 234 Polycythemia Vera Study Group–defined ET patients. The IPSET model was able to predict the occurrence of thrombosis, and not to predict post-ET myelofibrosis. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age ≥ 60 years, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 109/L, and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET and the validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET.

Abstract Age older than 65 years, hemoglobin level lower than 100 g/L (10 g/dL), white blood cell count greater than 25 × 109/L, peripheral blood blasts 1% or higher, and constitutional symptoms have been shown to predict poor survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) at diagnosis. To investigate whether the acquisition of these factors during follow-up predicts survival, we studied 525 PMF patients regularly followed. All 5 variables had a significant impact on survival when analyzed as time-dependent covariates in a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model and were included in 2 separate models, 1 for all patients (Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System [DIPSS]) and 1 for patients younger than 65 years (age-adjusted DIPSS). Risk factors were assigned score values based on hazard ratios (HRs). Risk categories were low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2, and high in both models. Survival was estimated by the HR. When shifting to the next risk category, the HR was 4.13 for low risk, 4.61 for intermediate-1, and 2.54 for intermediate-2 according to DIPSS; 3.97 for low risk, 2.84 for intermediate-1, and 1.81 for intermediate-2 according to the age-adjusted DIPSS. The novelty of these models is the prognostic assessment of patients with PMF anytime during their clinical course, which may be useful for treatment decision-making.