Till, Sara E.

Background: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction (ACLR) can be successful in restoring knee stability. However, secondary ACL injury, either through graft failure or contralateral injury, is a known complication and can significantly impact the ability of a patient to return successfully to previous activities. Purpose: To develop and internally validate an interpretable machine learning model to quantify the risk of graft failure and contralateral ACL injury in a longitudinal cohort treated with ACLR. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: An established geographic database of >600,000 patients was used to identify patients with a diagnosis of ACL rupture between 1990 and 2016 with a minimum 2-year follow-up. Medical records were reviewed for relevant patient information and 4 candidate machine learning algorithms were evaluated for prediction of graft failure and contralateral ACL injury in patients after ACLR as identified either on magnetic resonance imaging or via arthroscopy. Performance of the algorithms was assessed through discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. Model interpretability was enhanced utilizing global variable importance plots and partial dependence curves. Results: A total of 1497 patients met inclusion criteria. Among them, 140 (9.4%) had graft failure and 128 (8.6%) had a contralateral ACL injury after index surgery at a median follow-up of 140.7 months (interquartile range, 77.2-219.2 months). The best performing models achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.70 for prediction of graft failure and 0.67 for prediction of contralateral ACL injury, outperforming a logistic regression fitted on the identical feature set. Notable predictors for increased risk of graft failure included younger age at injury, body mass index (BMI) <30, return to sports <13 months, initial time to surgery >75 days, utilization of allograft, femoral/tibial fixation with suspension/expansion devices, concomitant collateral ligament injury, and active or former smoking history. Predictors of contralateral ACL injury included greater preoperative pain, younger age at initial injury, BMI <30, active smoking history, initial time to surgery >75 days, history of contralateral knee arthroscopies, and involvement in contact sports. Conclusion: Less than 18% of all patients who undergo ACLR should be expected to sustain either a graft failure or contralateral ACL injury. Machine learning models outperformed logistic regression and identified greater preoperative pain, younger age, BMI <30, earlier return to higher activity, and time to surgical intervention >75 days as common risk factors for both graft failure as well as contralateral ACL injury after ACLR. Surgeon-modifiable risk factors for graft failure included allograft and femoral/tibial fixation with a suspension/expansion combination.

Background: Surgical repair of full thickness biceps tears has demonstrated adequate outcomes in short and mid-term studies. However, data on the long-term outcomes of full thickness distal biceps injuries and their treatment are currently lacking. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to report on patient demographics, injury characteristics, and long-term outcomes for patients with full-thickness distal biceps tears. It was hypothesized that complete distal biceps tears managed operatively would demonstrate robust clinical success at long-term follow-up. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Patients with magnetic resonance imaging–confirmed, complete distal biceps tendon rupture sustained between 1996 and 2016 were identified. Patients were cross-referenced with a regional geographic database. Results: A total of 66 patients (3 female, 63 male) with a median age of 50.8 years (IQR, 41.5-60.4) and a median clinical follow-up of 14.7 years (IQR, 9.6-17.9 years) were included. Patients who sustained a full-thickness distal biceps tendon tear were likely to be in their early 50s, male, right-hand dominant, current/former smokers, and laborers with a history of traumatic injury during an intentional movement. Most of these patients had pain and supination weakness but no loss of range of motion. All included tears were treated operatively. At final follow-up, patients maintained a majority of near-normal range of motion (median total arc of flexion/extension 140° and supination/pronation 80°), excellent elbow flexion strength (91% of patients had full strength), and adequate elbow supination strength (76% of patients had full strength). The overall complication rate was 24%, with 16 out of 66 patients experiencing some type of complication between infection, rerupture, heterotopic ossification, reoperation, and nerve complications. Overall return to work was 98%, and 85% of those who returned to work did so without restrictions. Conclusion: Complete tears of the distal biceps were most common in patients 50 years of age, male sex, right-hand dominant, and current/former smokers. The most common profession was laborer, and injuries were primarily traumatic in nature during intentional activity. Patients managed operatively demonstrated high rates of success at long-term follow-up with respect to elbow function and clinical outcomes.

Purpose To compile and analyze structural and clinical outcomes after meniscus root tear treatment as currently described in the literature. Methods A review was conducted to identify studies published since 2011 on efficacy of repair, meniscectomy, and nonoperative management in the treatment of meniscus root tears. Patient cohorts were grouped into treatment categories, with medial and lateral root tears analyzed separately; data were collected on patient demographics, structural outcomes including joint space width, degree of medial meniscal extrusion, progression to total knee arthroplasty, and patient‐reported outcome measures. Risk of bias was assessed using the MINORS (methodological index for non‐randomized studies) criteria. Heterogeneity was measured using the I‐statistic, and outcomes were summarized using forest plots without pooled means. Results The 56 included studies comprised a total of 3,191 patients. Mean age among the included studies ranged from 24.6 to 65.6 years, whereas mean follow‐up ranged from 12 to 125.9 months. Heterogeneity analysis identified significant differences between studies. Change in joint space width ranged from –2.4 to –0.6 mm (i.e., decreased space) after meniscectomy (n = 186) and –0.9 to –0.1 mm after root repair (n = 209); change in medial meniscal extrusion ranged from –0.6 to 6.5 mm after root repair (n = 521) and 0.2 to 4.2 mm after meniscectomy (n = 66); and event rate for total knee arthroplasty ranged from 0.00 to 0.22 after root repair (n = 205), 0.35 to 0.60 after meniscectomy (n = 53), and 0.27 to 0.35 after nonoperative treatment (n = 93). Root repair produced the greatest numerical increase in International Knee Documentation Committee and Lysholm scores of the 3 treatment arms. In addition, root repair improvements in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score Pain (range: 22‐32), Sports and Recreational Activities (range: 23‐36), Quality of Life (range: 22‐42), and Symptoms subscales (range: 10‐19), in studies with low risk of bias. Conclusions The literature reporting on the treatment of meniscus root tears is heterogenous and largely limited to Level III and IV studies. Current evidence suggests root repair may be the most effective treatment strategy in lessening joint space narrowing of the knee and producing improvements in patient‐reported outcomes. Level of Evidence Level IV, systematic review of Level II‐IV studies.

Purpose To describe the clinical and radiographic features associated with isolated hypermobile lateral meniscus (HLM), and report patient outcomes following surgically repaired isolated HLM. Methods All patients diagnosed with HLM from 2000 to 2020 at a single academic institution were identified and reviewed. Patients were excluded if they had concomitant ligament injury or lacked 2‐year follow‐up. Preoperative and postoperative visual analog scale (VAS) pain scores were determined from clinical notes. Statistical analysis was performed in JMP, and statistical significance was determined with use of a paired t ‐test. Results Eighteen knees in 17 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean patient age was 24.1 (range: 6‐61) years. Mean follow‐up was 73 months (25‐151 months). All 18 knees reported pain at presentation; 94% (17/18) had mechanical symptoms. All 18 knees had preoperative MRIs, but only 1 (5.6%) knee was correctly diagnosed by a musculoskeletal trained radiologist. Most repairs were performed with an all‐inside technique (61%, 11/18). VAS score improved significantly from 7.2 ± 2.9 preoperatively to 0.7 ± 1.9 postoperatively, with average improvement of VAS score of 6.5 ( P < .001). Only one (5.6%) knee required revision meniscal surgery. Conclusions Hypermobile lateral meniscus patients commonly see multiple providers, fail to have their HLM diagnosed on MRI, and undergo various treatments prior to a successful diagnosis. Localized lateral joint line pain, mechanical symptoms, and absence of distinct meniscus tear on MRI are the most frequent clinical presentations. Surgery with meniscus repair is a reliable solution to improve pain and mechanical symptoms. Level of Evidence Level IV, therapeutic case series.

Objectives: Desirable outcomes following surgery for anterior shoulder instability (ASI) include a multitude of functional and clinical functions, yet it remains uncertain if all of these outcomes are simultaneously achievable (i.e. can patients have full motion and no instability; does excellent stability coincide with stiffness?). The purpose of this study was to employ unsupervised machine learning techniques to define the actual "optimal observed outcome” for patients undergoing surgical treatment for ASI and to identify predictors of obtaining this outcome. Methods: Patients <40 years with an initial diagnosis of ASI from 1994 -2016 were included. Four unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithms were evaluated to partition subjects into “optimal observed outcome” or “suboptimal outcome” based on combinations of actually observed outcomes. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables were compared between groups using descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meier survival curves; multivariate stepwise logistic regression evaluated variable prognostic value. Results: 200 patients with a mean follow-up of 11 years were included. 146 (64%) obtained the “optimal observed outcome”, characterized by significantly (P <0.001) lower rates of: recurrent postoperative pain (23% vs 52%), recurrent instability (12% vs 41%), revision surgery (10% vs 24%), progression to osteoarthritis (OA) (5% vs. 19%), and mildly restricted motion (161° vs. 168°). Stepwise multivariate logistic regression identified time from initial instability to presentation (OR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) and habitual instability (OR: 0.17, 95%CI: 0.04-0.77) as negative predictors of “observed optimal outcome”. Increased rate of subluxation over frank dislocation pre-operatively (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.02-1.65) was a positive predictor. Type of surgery performed was not a significant predictor. Conclusions: Following surgical treatment for ASI, an appropriate “optimal observed outcome” can be defined as: minimal postoperative pain, absence of recurrent instability, low rates of revision surgery, absence of OA, and increased ROM. This “optimal observed outcome” was achieved in over 2/3rds of the cohort and this work demonstrated the synergistic relationship of these. The most significant predictors included shorter time to presentation and history of subluxations over frank dislocations pre-operatively. This definition of the “optimal observed outcome” may be more appropriate for surgical decision making and setting appropriate expectations. [Table: see text][Table: see text]

Purpose To use unsupervised machine learning clustering to define the “optimal observed outcome” after surgery for anterior shoulder instability (ASI) and to identify predictors for achieving it. Methods Medical records, images, and operative reports were reviewed for patients <40 years old undergoing surgery for ASI. Four unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithms partitioned subjects into “optimal observed outcome” or “suboptimal outcome” based on combinations of actually observed outcomes. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables were compared between groups using descriptive statistics and Kaplan‐Meier survival curves. Variables were assessed for prognostic value through multivariate stepwise logistic regression. Results Two hundred patients with a mean follow‐up of 11 years were included. Of these, 146 (64%) obtained the “optimal observed outcome,” characterized by decreased: postoperative pain (23% vs 52%; P < 0.001), recurrent instability (12% vs 41%; P < 0.001), revision surgery (10% vs 24%; P = 0.015), osteoarthritis (OA) (5% vs 19%; P = 0.005), and restricted motion (161° vs 168°; P = 0.001). Forty‐one percent of patients had a “perfect outcome,” defined as ideal performance across all outcomes. Time from initial instability to presentation (odds ratio [OR] = 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92‐0.98; P = 0.006) and habitual/voluntary instability (OR = 0.17; 95% CI, 0.04‐0.77; P = 0.020) were negative predictors of achieving the “optimal observed outcome.” A predilection toward subluxations rather than dislocations before surgery (OR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.02‐1.65; P = 0.030) was a positive predictor. Type of surgery performed was not a significant predictor. Conclusions After surgery for ASI, 64% of patients achieved the “optimal observed outcome” defined as minimal postoperative pain, no recurrent instability or OA, low revision surgery rates, and increased range of motion, of whom only 41% achieved a “perfect outcome.” Positive predictors were shorter time to presentation and predilection toward preoperative subluxations over dislocations. Level of Evidence Level IV, retrospective cohort.

Background: There is a paucity of research on the management of partial-thickness tears of the distal bicep tendon, and even less is known about the long-term outcomes of this condition. Purpose: To identify patients with partial-thickness distal bicep tendon tears and determine (1) patient characteristics and treatment strategies, (2) long-term outcomes, and (3) any identifiable risk factors for progression to surgery or complete tear. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A fellowship-trained musculoskeletal radiologist identified patients diagnosed with a partial-thickness distal bicep tendon tear on magnetic resonance imaging between 1996 and 2016. Medical records were reviewed to confirm the diagnosis and record study details. Multivariate logistic regression models were created using baseline characteristics, injury details, and physical examination findings to predict operative intervention. Results: In total, 111 patients met inclusion criteria (54 treated operatively, 57 treated nonoperatively), with 53% of tears in the nondominant arm and a mean follow-up time after surgery of 9.7 ± 6.5 years. Only 5% of patients progressed to full-thickness tears during the study period, at a mean of 35 months after the initial diagnosis. Patients who were nonoperatively treated were less likely to miss time from work (12% vs 61%; P < .001) and missed fewer days (30 vs 97 days; P < .016) than those treated surgically. Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated increased risk of progression to surgery with older age at initial consult (unit odds ratio [OR], 1.1), tenderness to palpation (OR, 7.5), and supination weakness (OR, 24.8). Supination weakness at initial consult was a statistically significant predictor for surgical intervention (OR, 24.8; P = .001). Conclusion: Clinical outcomes were favorable for patients regardless of treatment strategy. Approximately 50% of patients were treated surgically; patients with supination weakness were 24 times more likely to undergo surgery than those without. Progression to full-thickness tear was a relatively uncommon reason for surgical intervention, with only 5% of patients progressing to full-thickness tears during the study period and the majority occurring within 3 months of initial diagnosis.

Background: There is a significant long-term risk of posttraumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR). Elucidating the risk factors and successfully identifying at-risk patients is challenging. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to produce machine learning survival models that can identify (1) patients at risk of symptomatic PTOA and (2) patients who are at risk of undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) after ACLR. It was hypothesized that these models would outperform traditional Kaplan-Meier estimators. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A geographic database was used to identify patients undergoing ACLR between 1990 and 2016 with a minimum 7.5-year follow-up. Models were used to analyze various factors to predict the rate and time to (1) symptomatic osteoarthritis and (2) TKA using random survival forest (RSF) algorithms. Performance was measured using out-of-bag (OOB) c-statistic, calibration, and Brier score. The predictive performances of the RSF models were compared with Kaplan-Meier estimators. Model interpretability was enhanced utilizing global variable importance and partial dependence curves. Results: A total of 974 patients with ACLR and a minimum follow-up of 7.5 years were included; among these, 215 (22.1%) developed symptomatic osteoarthritis, and 25 (2.6%) progressed to TKA. The RSF algorithms achieved acceptable good to excellent predictive performance for symptomatic arthritis (OOB c-statistic, 0.75; Brier score, 0.128) and progression to TKA (OOB c-statistic, 0.89; Brier score, 0.026), respectively. Significant predictors of symptomatic PTOA included increased pain scores, older age, increased body mass index, increased time to ACLR, total number of arthroscopic surgeries before the diagnosis of arthritis, positive pivot-shift test after reconstruction, concomitant chondral injury, secondary meniscal tear, early (<250 days) or delayed (>500 days) return to sports or activity, and use of allograft. Significant predictors for TKA included older age, increased pain scores, total number of arthroscopic surgeries, high-demand activity/occupation, hypermobility, higher body mass index, systemic inflammatory disease, increased time to surgery, early (<250 days) or delayed (>500 days) return to sports or activity, and midsubstance tears. The Brier score over time revealed that RSF models outperformed traditional Kaplan-Meier estimators. Conclusion: Machine learning survival models were used to reliably identify patients at risk of developing symptomatic PTOA, and these models consistently outperformed traditional Kaplan-Meier estimators. Strong predictors for the development of PTOA after ACLR included increased pain scores at injury and postoperative visit, older age at injury, total number of arthroscopic procedures, positive postoperative pivot-shift test, and secondary meniscal tear.

Objectives: Osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) of the humeral capitellum is an often painful condition that typically affects the adolescent athlete. There is little consensus on treatment and a scarcity of long-term outcomes data. The purpose of this study was to (1) report the long-term outcomes associated with both operative and non-operative management of capitellar OCD, (2) identify factors associated with failure of non-operative management, and (3) determine whether delay in surgery affects final outcomes. Methods: All patients diagnosed with OCD of the capitellum from 1995-2020 within a defined geographic cohort were included. Medical records, imaging studies, and operative reports were manually reviewed to record demographic data, treatment strategies, and outcomes. Surgical treatment was considered delayed if it occurred more than 6 months after symptom onset. Results: A total of 50 elbows with a mean follow-up of 9.4 years were included. Of these, 7 (14%) were treated non-operatively and never underwent surgery during follow-up, while 43 (86%) underwent surgical intervention: 27 had early surgery and 16 underwent delayed surgery after ≥ 6 months of non-operative treatment. When compared to non-operative management, surgical management resulted in superior MEPI scores (90 vs 83, p=0.05), decreased persistence of mechanical symptoms (9% vs 50%, p<0.01), and better elbow flexion (141° vs 131°, p=0.01) at long-term follow up. Older patients had a trend toward increased failure of non-operative management (p=0.06). The presence of an intra-articular loose body strongly predicted failure of non-operative management (p=0.01; OR 13). Plain radiography and MRI had poor sensitivities for identifying loose bodies (27% and 40%, respectively). Differences in outcomes following early versus delayed surgical management were not demonstrated. Conclusions: Patients with capitellar OCD initially treated nonoperatively failed nonoperative management 70% of the time. Elbows that did not undergo surgery had slightly increased symptoms and decreased functional outcomes compared to those treated surgically. In this cohort, the greatest predictors for failure of non-operative treatment were older age and presence of a loose body; however, an initial trial of non-operative treatment did not adversely impact the success of future surgery at long term follow-up. [Table: see text][Table: see text][Table: see text][Table: see text]

Purpose To (1) report the long‐term outcomes associated with both operative and nonoperative management of capitellar osteochondritis dissecans (OCD), (2) identify factors associated with failure of nonoperative management, and (3) determine whether delay in surgery affects final outcomes. Methods All patients who received a diagnosis of capitellar OCD from 1995‐2020 within a geographic cohort were included. Medical records, imaging studies, and operative reports were manually reviewed to record demographic data, treatment strategies, and outcomes. The cohort was divided into 3 groups: (1) nonoperative management, (2) early surgery, and (3) delayed surgery. Delayed surgery (surgery ≥6 months after symptom onset) was considered failure of nonoperative management. Results Fifty elbows with a mean follow‐up period of 10.5 years (median, 10.3 years; range, 1‐25 years) were studied. Of these, 7 (14%) were definitively treated nonoperatively, 16 (32%) underwent delayed surgery after at least 6 months of failed nonoperative treatment, and 27 (54%) underwent early surgical intervention. When compared with nonoperative management, surgical management resulted in superior Mayo Elbow Performance Index pain scores (40.1 vs 33, P = .04), fewer mechanical symptoms (9% vs 50%, P < .01), and better elbow flexion (141° vs 131°, P = .01) at long‐term follow‐up. Older patients trended toward increased failure of nonoperative management ( P = .06). The presence of an intra‐articular loose body predicted failure of nonoperative management ( P = .01; odds ratio, 13). Plain radiography and magnetic resonance imaging had poor sensitivities for identifying loose bodies (27% and 40%, respectively). Differences in outcomes after early versus delayed surgical management were not observed. Conclusions Nonoperative management of capitellar OCD failed 70% of the time. Elbows that did not undergo surgery had slightly more symptoms and decreased functional outcomes compared with those treated surgically. The greatest predictors of failure of nonoperative treatment were older age and presence of a loose body; however, an initial trial of nonoperative treatment did not adversely impact the success of future surgery. Level of Evidence Level III, retrospective cohort study.