Enriquez‐Sarano, Maurice

Background— This study assessed the long-term outcome of a large, asymptomatic population with hemodynamically significant aortic stenosis (AS). Methods and Results— We identified 622 patients with isolated, asymptomatic AS and peak systolic velocity ≥4 m/s by Doppler echocardiography who did not undergo surgery at the initial evaluation and obtained follow-up (5.4±4.0 years) in all. Mean age (±SD) was 72±11 years; there were 384 (62%) men. The probability of remaining free of cardiac symptoms while unoperated was 82%, 67%, and 33% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Aortic valve area and left ventricular hypertrophy predicted symptom development. During follow-up, 352 (57%) patients were referred for aortic valve surgery and 265 (43%) patients died, including cardiac death in 117 (19%). The 1-, 2-, and 5-year probabilities of remaining free of surgery or cardiac death were 80%, 63%, and 25%, respectively. Multivariate predictors of all-cause mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; P <0.0001), chronic renal failure (HR, 2.41; P =0.004), inactivity (HR, 2.00; P =0.001), and aortic valve velocity (HR, 1.46; P =0.03). Sudden death without preceding symptoms occurred in 11 (4.1%) of 270 unoperated patients. Patients with peak velocity ≥4.5 m/s had a higher likelihood of developing symptoms (relative risk, 1.34) or having surgery or cardiac death (relative risk, 1.48). Conclusions— Most patients with asymptomatic, hemodynamically significant AS will develop symptoms within 5 years. Sudden death occurs in ≈1%/y. Age, chronic renal failure, inactivity, and aortic valve velocity are independently predictive of all-cause mortality.

Background— B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) activation observed in cardiac diseases is a predictor of poor outcome; however, in organic mitral regurgitation (MR), BNP determinants and prognostic value are unknown. Methods and Results— We prospectively enrolled 124 patients with chronic organic MR (aged 63±15 years, 60% males) in whom we measured BNP level and simultaneously quantified MR degree, left ventricular (LV) remodeling, and left atrial (LA) volumes and analyzed long-term outcome. Baseline BNP level (54±67 pg/mL, median 31 pg/mL) was associated univariately with multiple clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, but in multivariate analysis, independent determinants of BNP, beyond age and sex (both P ≤0.01), were LV end-systolic volume index, LA volume, atrial fibrillation, and symptoms (all P <0.02). Conversely, MR degree was not independently associated with BNP. During follow-up, patients with high versus low BNP (≥31 versus <31 pg/mL) displayed lower survival rates (at 5 years, 72±10% versus 95±5%, P =0.03) and higher rates of the combined end point of death and heart failure (at 5 years, 42±10% versus 16±7%, P =0.03). In multivariate analysis, with adjustment for age, sex, functional class, MR severity, and ejection fraction, BNP was independently predictive of mortality (hazard ratio per 10 pg/mL, 1.23 [95% CI 1.07 to 1.48], P =0.004) and of death or heart failure (hazard ratio per 10 pg/mL, 1.09 [95% CI 1.001 to 1.19], P =0.04). Conclusions— BNP activation in organic MR reflects primarily ventricular and atrial consequences rather than degree of MR. Higher BNP level in patients with organic MR independently predicts adverse events under conservative management. Therefore, BNP activation in organic MR is an emerging biomarker of severity of MR consequences and of poor clinical outcome, and its assessment should be considered in the clinical evaluation and risk stratification of patients with MR.

Background— In case series, mitral regurgitation (MR) increased the risk of death after myocardial infarction (MI), yet the prevalence of MR, its incremental prognostic value over ejection fraction (EF), and its association with heart failure and death after MI in the community is not known. Methods and Results— The prevalence of MR and its association with heart failure and death were examined among 1331 patients within a geographically defined MI incidence cohort between 1988 and 1998. Echocardiography was performed within 30 days after MI in 773 patients (58%), and MR was present in 50% of cases, mild in 38%, and moderate or severe in 12%. Among patients with MR, a murmur was inconsistently detected clinically. After 4.7±3.3 years of follow-up, 109 episodes of heart failure and 335 deaths occurred. There was a graded positive association between the presence and severity of MR and heart failure or death. Moderate or severe MR was associated with a large increase in the risk of heart failure (relative risk 3.44, 95% CI 1.74 to 6.82, P <0.001) and death (relative risk 1.55, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.22, P =0.019) among 30-day survivors independent of age, gender, EF, and Killip class. Conclusions— In the community, MR is frequent and often silent after MI. It carries information to predict heart failure or death among 30-day survivors independently of age, gender, EF, and Killip class. These findings, which are applicable to a large community-based MI cohort, suggest that the assessment of MR should be included in post-MI risk stratification.

Background— The incidence, determinants, and outcome of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) after surgery for mitral regurgitation (MR) are poorly defined but may have important implications for timing of mitral valve surgery. Methods and Results— In 762 patients in sinus rhythm with no AF history undergoing MR surgical correction, we examined the rates and prognostic implications of postoperative AF for early AF (within 2 weeks postoperatively) and late AF (>2 weeks after surgery). During postoperative follow-up, 180 patients (24%) experienced new AF (early AF in 136 and late AF in 111). Isolated early AF without recurrence was observed in 69 patients characterized by high angina class and lower left ventricular ejection fraction but no significant left atrial (LA) enlargement. However, overall early AF predicted late AF: 62±5% of patients with early AF had late AF at 10 years compared with 9±1% of patients without early AF ( P <0.0001). Large LA size strongly and independently predicted early AF ( P =0.01) and late AF ( P =0.003). For late AF, the predictive value of an enlarged LA was cumulative to that of early AF. Postoperative AF was associated with an increased subsequently higher risk of stroke or congestive heart failure (adjusted risk ratio=1.46 [1.04 to 2.05], P =0.03). Conclusions— Postoperative AF is common after surgical correction of MR in patients with no prior history of AF and is associated with increased subsequent morbidity. LA enlargement is independently predictive of postoperative AF and as such, should be integrated into the clinical decision-making process in patients with MR.

Background— Electron-beam computed tomography (EBCT) is used to measure coronary calcification but not for aortic valve calcification (AVC). Its accuracy, association with aortic stenosis (AS) severity, and diagnostic and prognostic value with respect to AVC are unknown. Methods and Results— In 30 explanted aortic valves, the AVC score by EBCT (1125±1294 Agatston units [AU]) showed a strong linear correlation ( r =0.96, P <0.0001) with valvular calcium weight (653±748 mg) by pathology that allowed estimation of calcium weight as AVC score/1.7, with a small standard error of the estimate (53 mg). In 100 consecutive clinical patients, we measured AVC by EBCT and AS severity by echocardiographic aortic valve area (AVA). The AVC score was 1316±1749 AU (range 0 to 7226 AU). Intraobserver and interobserver variabilities were excellent (4±4% and 4±10%, respectively). AVC and AVA were strongly associated ( r =0.79, P <0.0001) but had a curvilinear relationship that suggested that AVC and AVA provide complementary information. AVC score ≥1100 AU provided 93% sensitivity and 82% specificity for diagnosis of severe AS (AVA <1 cm 2 ), with a receiver operator characteristic curve area of 0.89. AVC assessment by echocardiography was often more severe than by EBCT ( P <0.0001). During follow-up, 22 patients either died, developed heart failure, or required surgery. With adjustment for age, sex, symptoms, ejection fraction, and AVA, the AVC score was independently predictive of event-free survival (risk ratio 1.06 per 100-AU increment [1.02 to 1.10], P <0.001), even after adjustment for echocardiographic calcifications. Conclusions— AVC is accurately and reproducibly measured by EBCT and shows a strong association and diagnostic value for severe AS. The curvilinear relationship between AVC and AVA suggests these measures are complementary, and indeed, AVC provides independent outcome information. Thus, AVC is an important measurement in the evaluation of patients with AS.

Background and Purpose— Association of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) with ischemic neurological events (INEs) is uncertain. Methods— In the community of Olmsted County (Minn), we identified all MVP diagnosed (1989 to 1998) in patients in sinus rhythm with no prior history of INE. We measured INE rates and compared them with expected rates in our community to define the excess risk of INE. Results— Among 777 eligible subjects (age, 49±20 years; 66% female; follow-up, 5.5±3.0 years), 30 patients had at least 1 INE during follow-up (at 10 years, 7±1%). Compared with expected INEs in the same community, subjects with MVP showed excess risk of lifetime INE (relative risk [RR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.2; P <0.001) and during follow-up under purely medical management (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8; P =0.009). Independent determinants of INE were older age (RR, 1.08 per year; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.11; P <0.001), mitral thickening (RR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 7.4; P =0.008), atrial fibrillation (AFib) during follow-up (RR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9 to 10.0; P <0.001), and need for cardiac surgery (RR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 5.8; P =0.03). INE 10-year rates were low in patients <50 years of age (0.4±0.4%, P =0.60 versus expected) but were excessive in patients >50 years of age (16±3%, P <0.001 versus expected) or with thickened leaflets (7±2%, P <0.001 versus expected). Predictors of follow-up AFib were age, mitral regurgitation, and left atrium diameter (all P <0.01). Conclusions— In the community, subjects with MVP display a lifetime excess rate of INE compared with expected. Clinical (older age) and echocardiographic (leaflets thickening) characteristics define patients with MVP at high risk for INE, and subsequent AFib or need for cardiac surgery, both related to the degree of mitral regurgitation, increase the risk of INE.

Objective— This study was undertaken to examine the association between bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) and aortic dilatation in the community. The association between BAV and aortic dilatation has been reported predominantly in retrospective studies in patients mostly with valvular dysfunction or selected surgical patients from tertiary referral centers. An independent association of BAV and aortic dilatation in a community-based study has not been demonstrated. Methods and Results— In a geographically defined population of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with BAV (n=44, age 35±13 years) without hemodynamically significant obstruction or regurgitation and matched controls with normal tricuspid aortic valves were identified by transthoracic echocardiography. The two groups were compared with respect to measurements of the aorta. The BAV and control groups differed with respect to size of the aortic anulus (23.2±2.4 versus 21.6±2.4 mm; P =0.002), aortic sinus (33.5±4.6 versus 30.3±4.1 mm; P =0.0001), and proximal ascending aorta (33.3±6.5 versus 27.9±3.6 mm; P =0.0001). There was no difference in the size of the aortic arch (24.2±3.6 versus 25.3±3.4 mm; P =0.16). These differences were maintained when the groups were stratified by sex and blood pressure. The relationship between bicuspid aortic valve and aortic dilatation was maintained when adjusting for factors related to fluid mechanics and hemodynamics such as systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection time, and peak aortic valve velocity. Conclusions— In a community-based study, BAV is associated with an alteration of aortic dimensions even in the absence of hemodynamically significant aortic valve stenosis or regurgitation.

Background— Left ventricular dysfunction is an indication for aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe aortic regurgitation (AR). However, the postoperative outcome of patients with severe AR and a markedly low ejection fraction (EF) is not known. Methods and Results— The study group consisted of a total of 450 patients who had AVR for isolated AR between 1980 and 1995. Patients with markedly reduced left ventricular function (EF <35%, LoEF, n=43) were compared with those with moderate reduction in left ventricular function (EF 35% to 50%, MedEF, n=134) and those with normal left ventricular function (EF ≥50%, Nl EF, n=273). The operative mortality rate was higher with LoEF (14%) than with MedEF and Nl EF (6.7% and 3.7%, respectively, P =0.02). At 10 years, 41%±9% of LoEF patients had survived compared with 56%±5% and 70%±3% of MedEF and Nl EF patients, respectively ( P <0.0001). Congestive heart failure occurred at 10 years in 25%±9% with LoEF compared with 17%±4% and 9%±2% with MedEF and NL EF, respectively ( P <0.003). Postoperative EF improved by 4.9%±13.8% in the LoEF group and by 4%±11.9% in the MedEF group compared with −2.3%±10.9% in the Nl EF group ( P <0.002 and P <0.0001, respectively). Conclusions— Patients with severe AR and markedly low EF incur excess operative mortality rates, postoperative mortality rates, and congestive heart failure after AVR. However, postoperative EF improves markedly, and most patients enjoy a long postoperative survival without recurrence of heart failure after AVR; thus they should not be denied the benefits of AVR.

Background— The outcome of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) is controversial, with marked discrepancies in reported complication rates. Methods and Results— We conducted a community study of all Olmsted County, Minn, residents first diagnosed with asymptomatic MVP between 1989 and 1998 (N=833). Diagnosis, motivated by auscultatory findings (n=557) or incidental (n=276), was always confirmed by echocardiography with the use of current criteria. End points analyzed during 4581 person-years of follow-up were mortality (n=96, 19±2% at 10 years), cardiovascular morbidity (n=171), and MVP-related events (n=109, 20±2% at 10 years). The most frequent primary risk factors for cardiovascular mortality were mitral regurgitation from moderate to severe ( P =0.002, n=131) and, less frequently, ejection fraction <50% ( P =0.003, n=31). Secondary risk factors independently predictive of cardiovascular morbidity were slight mitral regurgitation, left atrium ≥40 mm, flail leaflet, atrial fibrillation, and age ≥50 years (all P <0.01). Patients with only 0 or 1 secondary risk factor (n=430) had excellent outcome, with 10-year mortality of 5±2% ( P =0.17 versus expected), cardiovascular morbidity of 0.5%/y, and MVP-related events of 0.2%/y. Patients with ≥2 secondary risk factors (n=250) had mortality similar to expected ( P =0.20) but high cardiovascular morbidity (6.2%/y, P <0.01) and notable MVP-related events (1.7%/y, P <0.01). Patients with primary risk factors (n=153) showed excess 10-year mortality (45±9%, P =0.01 versus expected), high morbidity (18.5%/y, P <0.01), and high MVP-related events (15%/y, P <0.01). Conclusions— Natural history of asymptomatic MVP in the community is widely heterogeneous and may be severe. Clinical and echocardiographic characteristics allow separation of the majority of patients with excellent prognosis from subsets of patients displaying, during follow-up, high morbidity or even excess mortality as direct a consequence of MVP.