Dimier, Natalie

AbstractDespite advances in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) treatment, significant unmet medical needs remain. Surrogate end points for overall survival can accelerate the approval of novel therapies. Measurable residual disease (MRD) is a promising surrogate end point candidate, providing a sensitive and quantitative assessment of disease burden. Numerous studies have demonstrated that negative MRD status—across diverse methodologies, assessment timepoints and thresholds, patient subgroups, and clinical settings—independently predicts improved survival. Although MRD can inform therapeutic decisions at the patient level, its formal integration as a primary surrogate end point in regulatory frameworks for clinical trials requires rigorous validation. MRD Partnership and Alliance in AML Clinical Treatment (MPAACT) is a research consortium among industry and academic leaders. MPAACT actively engages with regulatory agencies, health technology assessment bodies, technology vendors, and patient groups to establish a pathway for validating MRD as a surrogate end point in AML clinical trials. For the current article, the authors reviewed the status of MRD assessment, its use in recent clinical trials, current MRD assessment methodologies, standardization, regulatory guidance, statistical approaches, and patient access considerations necessary for MRD to become a surrogate clinical trial end point. The extensive collaboration between MPAACT, global industry, and academic partners—including data sharing and resource integration—underscores the collective commitment to advancing AML therapies. Establishing MRD as a surrogate end point could accelerate the development and approval of innovative treatments, ultimately improving patient outcomes.

PURPOSE Newly approved drugs and combinations treating multiple myeloma (MM) have resulted in substantial improvements in patients' survival. To deliver rapid access to newer therapies, an earlier end point to expedite clinical trials is needed. Our objective was to evaluate the minimal residual disease–negative complete response (MRD-CR) as an intermediate end point for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in newly diagnosed (ND) transplant-eligible (NDTE) patients, ND transplant-ineligible (NDTinE) patients, and patients with relapsed/refractory (RR) MM. PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 20 randomized multicenter trials were collected. Eleven studies (4,773 patients) with sufficient data were analyzed to evaluate whether 9- or 12-month MRD-CR classified at a 10 –5 threshold could be reasonably likely to predict the clinical benefit of new agents regarding PFS and OS. Global odds ratio (OR) was estimated using the bivariate Plackett Copula model. Supportive evaluation included correlations of the treatment effects on MRD-CR end points and PFS/OS, evaluated by both linear regression ( R 2 weighted least squared ) and Copula ( R 2 Copula ) models. RESULTS The analysis demonstrated that both 9- and 12-month MRD-CR strongly correlated with PFS at patient level in NDTE patients, NDTinE patients, and patients with RRMM. Global ORs ranged from 3.06 to 16.24, all with 95% CIs excluding 1.0. Encouraging trial-level correlations ( R 2 , 0.61-0.70) were observed by pooling three populations and were stronger ( R 2 , 0.67-0.78) in the ND population. Similar results were observed for OS. CONCLUSION Our findings provided the support for use of MRD-CR classified at a 10 –5 threshold at either 9 or 12 months after starting of the treatment, as an intermediate end point to support accelerated approvals, in future trials in NDTE patients, NDTinE patients, and patients with RRMM.

SummaryProgression‐free survival (PFS) has been the regulatory primary end‐point for recent phase III trials in first‐line follicular lymphoma (FL), but requires prolonged follow‐up. Complete response (CR) at 30 months after initiation of induction treatment was validated as surrogate end‐point for PFS. Our objective was to further evaluate surrogacy of CR measured by [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging at the end of induction (EoI). Individual patient data were analysed from 1505 patients from five randomized trials. Trial‐level surrogacy examining the association between treatment effects on EoI‐PET‐CR and PFS was evaluated using linear regression () and bivariate Copula () models. Although EoI‐PET‐CR strongly predicted PFS at a prognostic level, the trial‐level assessment did not show strong correlation (, confidence interval [CI]: 0.20–0.88; , CI: 0.0–0.82). The high uncertainty in estimation was possibly due to the small number of trials and the population of patients with available PET data. Maintenance therapy affecting PFS beyond induction treatment, but not EoI‐PET‐CR end‐point, may have distorted the association between treatment effects. However, there will probably be a number of additional trials approaching completion with available PET response data. Refined evaluation of PET‐CR based surrogate end‐points is still warranted.