Gerussi, Alessio

ABSTRACT Background Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune cholangiopathy with polygenic architecture and unknown aetiology. Evidence links Neanderthal‐derived genetic variants to autoimmune conditions; however, their contribution to PBC susceptibility remains unexplored. Objective We investigate whether archaic alleles influence PBC risk. Design Genotype data from four PBC cohorts were analysed: CANUK (4615 cases, 9233 controls), OLD IT (444 cases, 901 controls), NEW IT (255 cases, 579 controls) and MAYO (891 cases, 621 controls). Association testing with 235 592 Neanderthal Informative Markers (NIMs) was performed, adjusting for population stratification. Heritability was estimated using RHE‐mc and temporal haplotype dynamics were assessed using ancient DNA data from Europe and Asia. Results A Neanderthal‐derived variant in TNPO3 (rs12531711), previously reported by Cordell et al. showed strong association in CANUK ( p = 2.04 × 10 −26 ) and replicated across all validation cohorts. This variant functions as an eQTL, upregulating IRF5 and downregulating TNPO3 in blood. It is rare in African populations but common both in Europeans and Asians. Temporal analysis of the haplotype carrying rs12531711 revealed frequency increased substantially during the Bronze Age (5000–3000 BP), rising from 2.0% to 7.7% in Europe and 3.4% to 17.4% in Asia, before stabilizing. Despite this strong single‐variant association, the heritability explained by NIMs was not significantly different from that of non‐NIM variants. Conclusion A Neanderthal‐derived variant contributes to PBC risk and its frequency increased in the Bronze Age, possibly due to pathogen‐driven selection. Archaic introgression overall has limited influence on PBC heritability. Functional studies are needed to elucidate the role of rs12531711.

AbstractBackground & AimsMachine learning (ML) provides new approaches for prognostication through the identification of novel subgroups of patients. We explored whether ML could support disease sub‐phenotyping and risk stratification in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC).MethodsML was applied to an international dataset of PBC patients. The dataset was split into a derivation cohort (training set) and a validation cohort (validation set), and key clinical features were analysed. The outcome was a composite of liver‐related death or liver transplantation. ML and standard survival analysis were performed.ResultsThe training set was composed of 11,819 subjects, while the validation set was composed of 1,069 subjects. ML identified four clusters of patients characterized by different phenotypes and long‐term prognosis. Cluster 1 (n = 3566) included patients with excellent prognosis, whereas Cluster 2 (n = 3966) consisted of individuals at worse prognosis differing from Cluster 1 only for albumin levels around the limit of normal. Cluster 3 (n = 2379) included young patients with florid cholestasis and Cluster 4 (n = 1908) comprised advanced cases. Further sub‐analyses on the dynamics of albumin within the normal range revealed that ursodeoxycholic acid‐induced increase of albumin >1.2 x lower limit of normal (LLN) is associated with improved transplant‐free survival.ConclusionsUnsupervised ML identified four novel groups of PBC patients with different phenotypes and prognosis and highlighted subtle variations of albumin within the normal range. Therapy‐induced increase of albumin >1.2 x LLN should be considered a treatment goal.