Johnston, Karen C.

Background and Purpose— Predictive models of outcome after ischemic stroke have incorporated acute diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) information with mixed results. We hypothesized that serial measurements of DWI infarct volume would be predictive of functional outcome after ischemic stroke. Methods— The prospective Acute Stroke Accurate Prediction (ASAP) Study included a prespecified serial imaging subgroup who underwent DWI studies at baseline (<24 hours after symptom onset) and Day 5 (±2 days). DWI infarct volumes were calculated using the Analyze software (Rochester, Minn). Clinical outcomes were assessed at 3 months. Univariate and multivariable regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between change in DWI lesion volume and excellent neurological outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0, 1, and Barthel Index ≥95). Results— In total, 169 cases from the ASAP study had serial DWI scans with a measurable lesion at baseline, follow-up, or both. The median baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 6 (interquartile range, 3 to 13). For each 10 cm 3 of growth in DWI infarct volume, the OR for achieving an excellent outcome by modified Rankin Scale was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.38 to 0.71) and for the Barthel Index was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.79). Adjusting for clinically important covariates, the OR for an excellent modified Rankin Scale outcome was 0.57 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.88) and excellent Barthel Index outcome was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.56 to 1.01). Conclusions— Based on these data, the likelihood of achieving an excellent neurological outcome diminishes substantially with growth in DWI infarct volume in the first 5 days after ischemic stroke of mild to moderate severity.

Background and Purpose— A simple, easily measured surrogate outcome measure for use in early treatment trials for acute ischemic stroke therapies would be highly valued. We hypothesized that day-5 NIH stroke scale score (NIHSS) and day-5 diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) volume would predict clinical outcome better than either alone and could be considered as a possible surrogate outcome in early phase acute stroke trials. Methods— The prospective Acute Stroke Accurate Prediction (ASAP) trial included a prespecified subgroup evaluated for early outcome. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the prediction of modified Rankin (mRankin) of 0 or 1. Results— A total of 204 subjects completed the substudy, and 116 (57%) had excellent outcome at 3 months. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for day-5 NIHSS predicting 3-month excellent outcome was 0.84; for DWI volume predicting outcome was 0.76, and for the multivariable model combining both was 0.84. Conclusions— The results of the early outcome substudy of the ASAP trial suggest that early stroke severity and infarct volume measures are predictive of 3-month excellent outcome. In our data set the DWI volume does not add clinically relevant information in predicting 3-month outcome. Validation of these results is required.