Raemaekers, John

Background: There are a lack of clinical prediction tools in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (E-HL). We developed and validated a modern-day model, known as E-HIPI, to predict progression-free survival (PFS) within the first 5 years (y) incorporating detailed individual patient (pt) data from international clinical trials and prospective registry data that were standardized, normalized & harmonized as part of the HoLISTIC Consortium (www.hodgkinconsortium.org). Methods: Model development utilized Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines (Moons, Ann Intern Med 2015) on a cohort of 3,080 newly-diagnosed E-HL pts treated on 4 seminal phase 3 clinical trials (NCIC: Meyer, NEJM 2012; RAPID: Radford, NEJM 2015; EORTC-GELA H9U: Ferme, E ur J Cancer 2017; EORTC/LYSA/FIL H10: Andre, JCO 2017). External validation was done in an independent cohort of 462 E-HL pts from a large registry (Princess Margaret, Toronto). Pts with classic HL, stage I or II disease, and ages 18-65 y were included. The primary outcome was PFS. Cox models were utilized with follow-up truncated at 5 years. Baseline predictors were: sex, stage, B symptoms, histology, number & location of nodal sites, and continuous data values of age, maximum tumor diameter (MTD), white blood cell count (WBC), lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, albumin & erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Multiple imputation was used for missing data. To consider possible non-linear relationships for continuous variables we examined plots & cubic splines. We used backward elimination ( P<0.1) to develop the models & internal validation with 200 bootstrap samples was conducted to estimate optimism & correct for overfitting. The final prediction equations applied optimism corrections to beta coefficients & hazard ratios (HR). Sensitivity analyses included model results stratified by PET staging (vs CT) and each HL trial. The models were evaluated in the external validation cohort & compared using c-statistics. Model scores were also grouped by tertiles for visualization in Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves. Results: Median age in the development cohort was 35y; 51% were female; 81% had nodular sclerosis & 77% stage II disease; 26% had B symptoms; 32% had mediastinal bulk (≥10cm or >1/3 diameter) and the mean MTD was 6.4 cm (interquartile range (IQR), 3.9-8.2). Median follow-up was 60 months (IQR 45-75). KM estimates at 5y was 90.7% (264 events) for PFS, and 97.1% (78 events) for overall survival (OS). After backward elimination, significant variables retained were age, sex, nodal location (cervical region), MTD & albumin. Stage, ESR, or the number of nodal sites were not significant. Age was modeled with piecewise linear splines due to its non-linear relationship. See the Table for the final prediction model and optimism-corrected HRs. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model was 0.63. Sensitivity analyses of stratification by type of imaging at staging or by each clinical trial demonstrated no change in model parameters or c-statistics. Most baseline characteristics and outcomes of the external validation cohort were similar besides median follow-up time (74 months, IQR 37-129). C-statistics for the E-HIPI model in external validation was 0.63. In addition, observed 5y outcomes stratified by tertile of predicted risk in the external cohort separated pts into a low & higher-risk group, which comprised 1/3 & 2/3 of pts, respectively ( Figure). Finally, model diagnostics revealed the potential for time dependency in the retained covariates. Further assessment of differential prediction between early (<2y) vs. later (2-5y) PFS events is ongoing. Conclusion: Following TRIPOD methodology, we rigorously developed and externally validated the E-HIPI among >3,500 E-HL pts.Discrete risk groups were delineated, and we identified several novel factors, including nodal location, sex & key continuous variables that predict 5y PFS. Additional model refinement is underway, including formal calibration & external validation via other HL registries (Stanford, Mayo/Iowa SPORE). A web-based calculator to simplify application of the E-HIPI will also be presented at ASH. Future planned modeling includes integration of differing treatments & response-adapted imaging via multistate modeling to enrich individualized survival estimates and simulation modeling to predict late consequences.

Background: While HL is a highly curable cancer, patients (pts) with advanced stage disease experience increased risk of relapse. Delineation of prognosis is desired to compare cohorts and outcomes between trials, and to define groups of pts for whom reduction in treatment may be appropriate or where novel therapeutic approaches are needed. The International Prognostic Score (IPS), which was derived from a discovery set of 1,618 HL pts with complete data, was a seminal publication in the field (Hasenclever and Diehl NEJM 1998). However, these data were published >20 years ago with a significant minority of pts having received chemotherapy regimens no longer in clinical use. More contemporary analyses have shown altered utility of the IPS (e.g., Moccia JCO 2012; Diefenbach BJH 2015). In addition, prior studies identified bulk disease as an adverse prognostic factor in advanced stage HL (Laskar JCO 2004; Johnson JCO 2010). Our objective was to leverage individual pt data (IPD) from HoLISTIC (www.hodgkinconsortium.com) to discover a new, robust, and modern prognostication index for advanced-stage HL pts applicable to diverse settings across the world. Methods: We created a data repository of IPD from clinical trials for newly diagnosed HL pts, which includes 4,085 advanced-stage (III or IV) pts treated in 8 large, prospective studies completed in the modern era (ie, IIL HD9601: Gobbi JCO 2005; Italian HD2000: Federico JCO 2009; ECOG 2496: Gordon JCO 2013; SWOG 0816: Press JCO 2016; IIL HD0801: Zinzani JCO 2016; RATHL: Johnson NEJM 2016; GITIL HD0607: Gallamini JCO 2017; and COG AHOD 0831: Kelly BJH 2019) as well as prominent cancer registries (eg, the Mayo/Iowa Molecular Epidemiologic Resource (MER)). The discovery analysis herein included pts from the ECOG 2496, HD0801 IIL, GITIL HD0607, and SWOG 0816 studies. Furthermore, it was restricted to pts (n=1,279) on these trials with complete data for all 9 covariates of interest: age; sex; advanced stage (III vs IV); B symptoms; any bulk; and values of hemoglobin, white blood count (WBC), lymphocyte count, and albumin. Using Cox proportional hazard (PH) models, we evaluated univariate associations between 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with the aforementioned prognostic variables. Age was categorized based on plots and optimum model fit (c statistic). Lab values were dichotomized using cut-points from the 1998 IPS. Per convention, treatment factors were not included in the model. To identify independent prognostic factors of PFS and OS, a parsimonious Cox PH model was fit using backward selection of all potential risk factors (P<0.05). Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported. Kaplan Meier (KM) plots were also reported for risk factors in the multivariable (MVA) models to visualize differences. Results: Among all pts, characteristics included: median age of 32.9 years (IQR 25.4-44, range 15-83); 55% male; 49% stage IV; 63% B symptoms; 26% bulk >10 cm; 20% hemoglobin <10.5 g/dL; 15% WBC count ≥15,000/mm3; 9% lymphocyte count <600/mm3; and 63% with albumin <4g/dL. For analysis of age, we observed a U-shaped relationship with PFS (Fig A), which helped delineate optimal cut points of 15-24 years (23.1%), 25-49 years (61.4%), and ≥50 years (15.6%). In univariate analysis: age, stage, B symptoms, bulk, anemia, low lymphocyte count, and low albumin were associated with worse survival. In the MVA model, age >50 years, stage IV disease, B symptoms, and bulky disease were associated with worse PFS; and age >50 years, stage IV disease, bulky disease, anemia, and low albumin were associated with worse OS (Fig B). KM plots for age, stage, and bulk are presented in Fig C. Conclusions. In this international, multi-study analysis of advanced stage HL in the modern era, we identified several factors that were associated with both worse PFS and OS on MVA (ie, age, stage IV disease, and bulky disease). The finding of bulky disease as a significant prognostic factor warrants further investigation. In addition, we detected an age-related U-shaped impact on PFS with inferior outcomes for pts ages 15-25 years and ≥50 years, the latter in an increasing linear fashion. Altogether, these data will serve as a training cohort for a modern HL prognostication index that will be augmented and analyzed with a large independent validation cohort (vis-à-vis the remaining HL data in the HoLISTIC consortium), which will be presented at the ASH meeting. Disclosures Parsons: Seattle Genetics: Consultancy. Advani:Astra Zeneca, Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals, Cell Medica, Celgene, Genentech/Roche, Gilead, KitePharma, Kyowa, Portola Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi, Seattle Genetics, Takeda: Consultancy; Celgene, Forty Seven, Inc., Genentech/Roche, Janssen Pharmaceutical, Kura, Merck, Millenium, Pharmacyclics, Regeneron, Seattle Genetics: Research Funding. Federico:Spectrum: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sandoz: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Mundipharma s.r.l.: Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Roche: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Millennium/Takeda: Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Cephalon/Teva: Research Funding. Friedberg:Acerta Pharma - A member of the AstraZeneca Group, Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals.: Other; Bayer: Consultancy; Kite Pharmaceuticals: Research Funding; Portola Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Roche: Other: Travel expenses; Seattle Genetics: Research Funding; Astellas: Consultancy. Hutchings:Genmab: Research Funding; Janssen: Research Funding; Roche: Consultancy; Genmab: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy; Roche: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Daiichi: Research Funding; Sankyo: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Sanofi: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding; Roche: Honoraria; Genmab: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria. Johnson:MorphoSys: Honoraria; Kymera: Honoraria; Kite Pharma: Honoraria; Incyte: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria; Epizyme: Consultancy, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria; Oncimmune: Consultancy; Boehringer Ingelheim: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy; Oncimmune: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy; Genmab: Honoraria; Bristol-Myers: Honoraria; Epizyme: Consultancy, Research Funding. Radford:Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; ADCT: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; Seattle Genetics: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; GlaxoSmithKline: Current equity holder in publicly-traded company, Other: Spouse; AstraZeneca: Current equity holder in publicly-traded company, Other: Spouse; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Zinzani:MSD: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Incyte: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Sanofi: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; EUSA Pharma: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; AbbVie: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Gilead: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Sandoz: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Immune Design: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Eusapharma: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Verastem: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Kyowa Kirin: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; TG Therapeutics, Inc.: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Kirin Kyowa: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Servier: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Janssen-Cilag: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Celltrion: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; ADC Therapeutics: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Portola: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Celgene: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Immune Design: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Merck: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau. Cerhan:NanoString: Research Funding; BMS/Celgene: Research Funding. Evens:Abbvie: Consultancy, Honoraria; Seattle Genetics: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; MorphoSys: Consultancy, Honoraria; Research To Practice: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria; Epizyme: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Merck: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Pharmacyclics: Consultancy, Honoraria; Mylteni: Consultancy, Honoraria.