O’Fallon, W. Michael

Background Treatment group imbalances in baseline stroke severity in the NINDS intravenous t-PA for acute stroke treatment trial led to controversy regarding the efficacy of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) in the treatment of acute ischemic stroke. Purpose Describe the steps used to independently re-evaluate this trial. Methods NIH appointed an independent multidisciplinary committee that gained access to the original data. We undertook analyses of t-PA efficacy accounting for this imbalance, as well as analyses to identify subgroups that experienced additional harm or benefit from t-PA. Analyses of time from stroke onset to treatment (OTT), blood pressure, and intracerebral hemorrhage are given as illustrations. Results Despite subgroup imbalances in baseline stroke severity, when t-PA was administered to acute ischemic stroke patients according to study protocol, there was a statistically significant and clinically important benefit of t-PA treatment resulting in a higher likelihood of having a favorable clinical outcome at 3 months. Moreover, we were unable to identify subgroups of patients between which t-PA treatment effect differed, albeit these analyses had low power. These data failed to support the NINDS investigators' conclusion that effect of t-PA therapy diminished with increasing values of OTT within the protocol-specified 3 h time limit. In addition, the blood pressure measurements were highly variable and inconsistently determined so as to be too unreliable for inclusion in analysis. Conclusion With new NIH requirements for data-sharing, the frequency of re-analysis of clinical trial data may increase substantially. This re-evaluation provides a blueprint for future re-evaluations of other trials. These best practices include re-analysis of the study data, after suitable replication, by an independent multidisciplinary committee, including a skilled statistical programmer analyst. Primary investigators should address significant errors determined in such re-analyses. Clinical Trials 2008; 5: 308—315. http://ctj.sagepub.com

Retinopathy is an important sequela of diabetes mellitus, but clinical risk factors for this condition have rarely been assessed in a geographically defined population. In this population-based study, the 1135 Rochester, Minnesota, residents with diabetes mellitus initially diagnosed between 1945 and 1969 (incidence cohort) were followed through their complete medical records in the community to January 1, 1982. Because most of the cases of diabetic retinopathy in Rochester residents developed in patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM), risk factors for diabetic retinopathy were examined in this group (N = 1031). A proportional hazards model identified the following risk factors for diabetic retinopathy in NIDDM: elevated initial fasting blood glucose level, marked obesity, and earlier age at onset of diabetes. Stratified analyses indicated that duration of diabetes was also significantly associated with an increased risk of retinopathy. Two secular trends, increasing detection of “mild” NIDDM and decreasing risk of diabetic retinopathy, had a major effect on retinopathy risk assessment. These data also suggest that insulin therapy is not an independent risk factor for diabetic retinopathy.

OBJECTIVE—The aims of this study were to provide estimates of 1) the risk of mortality for individuals with both diabetes and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) relative to that for individuals with either condition alone and 2) the association between PAD progression and mortality for individuals with diabetes, PAD, and both conditions. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This longitudinal cohort study was conducted in Rochester, Minnesota. Local residents age 50–70 years with a prior diagnosis of PAD and/or diabetes were identified from the Mayo Clinic diagnostic registry and invited to a baseline examination (1977–1978). Those who met inclusion criteria were assessed for PAD progression at 2 and 4 years and followed for vital status through 31 December 1999. RESULTS—The numbers who met criteria for PAD, diabetes, and both conditions at baseline were 149, 238, and 186, respectively. Within each group, observed survival was less than expected (P < 0.001). The adjusted risk of death for both conditions was 2.2 times that for PAD alone. Among the 449 who returned at 4 years, the risk of subsequent death was greater for those whose PAD had progressed; among individuals with diabetes alone at baseline, 100% (17 of 17) who met criteria for PAD progression were dead by 31 December 1999 compared with 62% (111 of 178) of those who had not met criteria (adjusted relative hazard 2.29 [95% CI 1.30–4.02], P = 0.004). The increased mortality associated with PAD progression was significant only for individuals with diabetes (alone or with PAD). CONCLUSIONS—Diabetes is a risk factor for both PAD and PAD-associated mortality, emphasizing the critical need to detect and monitor PAD in diabetic patients.

Abstract Although median levels of bone turnover are increased in postmenopausal women, it is unclear whether the low circulating levels of endogenous estrogen exert a regulatory role on these levels. This issue was evaluated by assessing the effect of a blockade of estrogen synthesis on bone turnover markers in 42 normal women (mean age ± SD, 69 ± 5 years) randomly assigned to groups receiving the potent aromatase inhibitor letrozole or placebo for 6 months. Letrozole treatment reduced serum estrone (E1) and estradiol (E2) to near undetectable levels (p < 0.0001). This treatment did not affect bone formation markers but, as compared with the placebo group, increased bone resorption markers (urine 24-h pyridinoline [PYD] by 13.3% [p < 0.05] and 24-h urine deoxypyridinoline [DPD] by 14.2% [p < 0.05]) and decreased serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) by 22% (p = 0.002). These data indicate that in late postmenopausal women even the low serum estrogen levels present exert a restraining effect on bone turnover and support the concept that variations in these low levels may contribute to differences in their rate of bone loss.

Abstract Localized disruption of bone architecture leads to an increased risk of pathological fractures in patients with Paget's disease, but the impact of the disease on overall fracture risk is unknown. We addressed this issue among 236 Olmsted County, Minnesota residents (107 women and 129 men) first diagnosed with Paget's disease from 1950 through 1994. These subjects (mean ± SD age at diagnosis, 69.6 ± 12.2 years) were followed subsequently for 2798 person-years. During this period of observation, 33 pathological fractures were attributed to Paget's disease (1 skull, 11 vertebra, 1 shaft/distal humerus, 1 pelvis, 6 proximal femur, 2 shaft/distal femur, and 11 tibia/fibula). Excluding the fractures through pagetic bone, there was no increase in overall fracture risk in this cohort (standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.2; 95% CI, 0.9-1.4). However, there was a statistically significant increase in the risk of subsequent vertebra (SIR, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.2-4.1) and rib fractures (SIR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4) but not fractures of the proximal femur (SIR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-1.1) or distal forearm (SIR, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.7-2.5). Thus, unselected patients with Paget's disease in the community, who mostly have mild disease, have a significantly increased risk of vertebral fractures, although this may relate partly to increased surveillance. Additional work is needed to clarify the relationship between Paget's disease and vertebral fractures and to identify individuals at increased risk for more aggressive therapy.

Abstract An age-stratified sample of 304 women from Rochester, Minnesota, aged 30–94 years (median 60 years) at baseline underwent measurement of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) over a follow-up period extending to 16 years. The average rate of change in femoral neck BMD was −1.0% per year (range −10.0% to +13.4%) and did not vary significantly with age. Because there was no marked increase in the rate of loss around the time of menopause, nor convincing evidence of there being a subset of fast losers, there was fairly good tracking of individual values over time; the correlation of baseline with femoral neck BMD values 16 years later was 0.83. Although a large number of potential determinants was assessed, the only consistent predictor of femoral neck bone loss in women of different ages was baseline femoral neck BMD (r = −0.15; p = 0.023). Otherwise, different sets of risk factors were identified for premenopausal women, women within 20 years of menopause, and women 20 years or more postmenopausal, but the predictive power of these different multivariate models was modest. Nonetheless, these data indicate that femoral neck BMD is quite predictable for extended periods of time. This is reassuring with respect to the use of statistical models that incorporate such data to estimate future fracture risk.

Abstract We report a 4-year randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial in 236 normal postmenopausal women (mean age ± SE, 66.3 ± 0.2 years) who were randomized to a calcium (1600 mg/day as the citrate) or placebo group. The women were seen every 6 months; 177 completed the trial. Net percentage changes in each group are given relative to baseline. The differences in net percentage changes (calcium group minus placebo group) in medians were: for lumbar spine bone density, 2.0% (p < 0.001) at year 1 and 0.3% (not significant) at year 4; for proximal femur bone density, 1.3% (p = 0.003) at year 1 and 1.3% (p = 0.015) at year 4; and for total body bone mineral, 0.4% (p = 0.002) at year 1 and 0.9% (p = 0.017) at year 4. Similar differences at year 4 were: −18.9% (p = 0.002) for parathyroid hormone (PTH), −11.9% (p = 0.026) for serum osteocalcin, and −32.2% (p = 0.003) for urine free pyridinoline. We conclude that long-term administration of calcium supplements to elderly women partially reverses age-related increases in serum PTH level and bone resorption and decreases bone loss. However, the effects on bone loss were weaker than those reported for estrogen, bisphosphonates, or calcitonin therapy, indicating that calcium supplements alone cannot substitute for these in treating established osteoporosis. Nonetheless, because of their safety, high tolerance, and low expense, calcium supplements may be a useful preventive measure for elderly postmenopausal women whose bone mineral density values are normal for their age.

Abstract To assess the influence of bone turnover on bone density and fracture risk, we measured serum levels of osteocalcin (OC), bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), and carboxy-terminal propeptide of type I procollagen (PICP), as well as 24-h urine levels of cross-linked N-telopeptides of type I collagen (NTx) and the free pyridinium cross-links, pyridinoline (Pyd) and deoxypyridinoline (Dpd), among 351 subjects recruited from an age-stratified random sample of Rochester, Minnesota women. PICP, NTx, and Dpd were negatively associated with age among the 138 premenopausal women. All of the biochemical markers were positively associated with age among the 213 postmenopausal women, and the prevalence of elevated turnover (>1 standard deviation [SD] above the premenopausal mean) varied from 9% (PICP) to 42% (Pyd). After adjusting for age, most of the markers were negatively correlated with bone mineral density (BMD) of the hip, spine, or forearm as measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and women with osteoporosis were more likely to have high bone turnover. A history of osteoporotic fractures of the hip, spine, or distal forearm was associated with reduced hip BMD and with elevated Pyd. After adjusting for lower BMD and increased bone resorption, reduced bone formation as assessed by OC was also associated with prior osteoporotic fractures. These data indicate that a substantial subset of elderly women has elevated bone turnover, which appears to adversely influence BMD and fracture risk. Combined biochemical and BMD screening may provide better prediction of future fracture risk than BMD alone.

Background and Purpose— Following publication of concerns about the results of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) in acute stroke treatment trial, NINDS commissioned an independent committee “to address whether there is concern that eligible stroke patients may not benefit from t-PA given according to the protocol used in the trials and, whether the subgroup imbalance (in baseline stroke severity) invalidates the entire trial.” Methods— The original NINDS trial data were reanalyzed to assess the t-PA treatment effect, the effect of the baseline imbalance in stroke severity between the treatment groups on the t-PA treatment effect, and whether subgroups of patients did not benefit from receiving t-PA. Results— A clinically important and statistically significant benefit of t-PA therapy was identified despite subgroup imbalances in baseline stroke severity and an increased incidence of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage in t-PA treated patients. The adjusted t-PA to placebo odds ratio (OR) of a favorable outcome was 2.1 (95% CI, 1.5 to 2.9). Although these exploratory analyses found no statistical evidence that the t-PA treatment effect differed among patient subgroups, the study was not powered to detect subgroup treatment differences. Conclusions— These findings support the use of t-PA to treat patients with acute ischemic stroke within 3 hours of onset under the NINDS t-PA trial protocol. Health professionals should work collaboratively to develop guidelines to ensure appropriate use of t-PA in acute ischemic stroke patients.

ABSTRACTElderly individuals are at high risk for morbidity and mortality when infected with influenza virus. Vaccinations with inactivated virus are less effective in the elderly due to the declining competency of the aging immune system. We have explored whether immunological parameters predict poor anti-influenza virus vaccine responses and can be used as biological markers of immunosenescence. One hundred fifty-three residents of community-based retirement facilities aged 65 to 98 years received a trivalent influenza vaccine. Vaccine-induced antibody responses were determined by comparing hemagglutination inhibition titers before and 28 days after immunization. The composition of the T-cell compartment was analyzed by flow cytometry and the sizes of three T-cell subsets, CD4+CD45RO+cells, CD4+CD28nullcells, and CD8+CD28nullcells, were determined. Only 17% of the vaccine recipients were able to generate an increase in titers of antibody to all three vaccine components, and 46% of the immunized individuals failed to respond to any of the three hemagglutinins. The likelihood of successful vaccination declined with age and was independently correlated with the expansion of a particular T-cell subset, CD8+CD28nullT cells. The sizes of the CD4+CD45RO+memory T-cell and CD4+CD28nullT-cell subsets had no effect on the ability to mount anti-influenza virus antibody responses. Frequencies of CD8+CD28nullT cells are useful biological markers of compromised immunocompetence, identifying individuals at risk for insufficient antibody responses.