El‐Galaly, Tarec Christoffer

PURPOSE Patients diagnosed with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (aHL) have historically been risk-stratified using the International Prognostic Score (IPS). This study investigated if a machine learning (ML) approach could outperform existing models when it comes to predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). PATIENTS AND METHODS This study used patient data from the Danish National Lymphoma Register for model development (development cohort). The ML model was developed using stacking, which combines several predictive survival models (Cox proportional hazard, flexible parametric model, IPS, principal component, penalized regression) into a single model, and was compared with two versions of IPS (IPS-3 and IPS-7) and the newly developed aHL international prognostic index (A-HIPI). Internal model validation was performed using nested cross-validation, and external validation was performed using patient data from the Swedish Lymphoma Register and Cancer Registry of Norway (validation cohort). RESULTS In total, 707 and 760 patients with aHL were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Examining model performance for OS in the development cohort, the concordance index (C-index) for the ML model, IPS-7, IPS-3, and A-HIPI was found to be 0.789, 0.608, 0.650, and 0.768, respectively. The corresponding estimates in the validation cohort were 0.749, 0.700, 0.663, and 0.741. For PFS, the ML model achieved the highest C-index in both cohorts (0.665 in the development cohort and 0.691 in the validation cohort). The time-varying AUCs for both the ML model and the A-HIPI were consistently higher in both cohorts compared with the IPS models within the first 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSION The new prognostic model for aHL on the basis of ML techniques demonstrated a substantial improvement compared with the IPS models, but yielded a limited improvement in predictive performance compared with the A-HIPI.

Introduction: Splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL) is a rare, indolent disease. There is no universally accepted standard therapy and long-term outcome data are limited. Rituximab monotherapy is increasingly used over splenectomy in the first-line setting despite a paucity of comparative studies. In the absence of randomized trials, large-scale international real-world data studies are critical to evaluate outcomes of different treatment interventions and to understand the natural history of SMZL in the rituximab-era. Methods: Adult patients with SMZL diagnosed between Jan 1 st 2000 and Dec 31 st 2018 were identified using regional/nationwide population-based registries or hospital registries in Europe, the UK, North America, and Australia. Medical records and pathology reports from eligible patients were reviewed locally by clinicians with specialty experience in hemato-oncology. SMZL cases were required to meet the diagnostic criteria by Matutes et al. Detailed data on clinico-pathological features, comorbidities, treatments (including treatment intention), treatment responses and survival outcomes were entered in a central study database. Overall survival (OS) was defined as time from diagnosis until death from any cause or censoring at last follow-up unless stated otherwise. Event-free survival (EFS) was defined as the time from diagnosis until histological transformation, initiation of new chemotherapy or death from any cause. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Cumulative risk of transformation was estimated with death as a competing risk. Primary endpoints were 10-year OS and 5-year EFS respectivly. Results: A total of 934 patients from 25 sites were included. Median age at diagnosis was 68 years (IQR 60-76) and 54% were female. Bone marrow involvement was present in 96% (564/590) of those assessed, anemia (Hb <12g/dL for women or <13g/dL for men) in 58%, LDH >UNL in 46%, lymphocytosis (>5 x10 9/L) in 34%, and B-symptoms in 34%. Treatment data were available for 97% of patients. Median follow-up was 9.1 years (range 0-23). Watch and wait was the initial strategy in 28% and 88% of patients received at least one line of treatment during follow-up with the most common being splenectomy (45%), immuno-chemotherapy (19%) or rituximab monotherapy (8%). Fifteen percent received “other” treatments (i.e., combinations of listed therapies and/or radiation). The overall response rate to first-line treatment was 88% (95%CI: 85-90%) with 61% (95%CI: 57-64%) achieving CR. Second line (2L) therapy was needed in 34% during follow-up, 3L in 20% and 4L+ in 9%. The 5-year EFS and OS for all patients were 61% (95%CI: 57-65%) and 77% (95%CI: 74-80%) respectively. The 10-year OS and lymphoma-specific mortality (with non-SMZL deaths as competing risk) estimates were 60% (95%CI: 57-64%) and 11% (95%CI: 9-14%) respectively. The 5-year OS after 2L and 3L were 61% (95%CI: 55-68%) and 51% (95%CI: 42-61%) respectively (figure 1). The 10-year cumulative risk of histological transformation was 17% (95%CI: 13-21%), with 5-year post-transformation OS of 42% (32-54%). At the time of transformation, 60% were chemo-naive and 52% had never been treated for SMZL. The 5-year OS for chemo-naive patients with transformation was 54% (95%CI: 41-71%) versus 24% (95% CI: 13-44%) for transformations after (immuno)chemotherapy (p = 0.01). When comparing patients intended for treatment in first line with splenectomy (n=312) versus rituximab (n=70), patients treated with splenectomy more frequently presented with extra-hilar lymphadenopathy (35% vs 18%), splenomegaly (92% vs 87%) and anemia (64% vs 48%). OS was similar for the two groups (Figure 2, p = 0.53). The 5-year EFS were 63% (95%CI: 57-68%) and 64% (95%CI: 54-77%), respectively (p = 0.31). Conclusions: To date, this is the largest real-world study of SMZL with detailed treatment and outcome data. The study shows that histological transformation was not uncommon with 10-year risk of 17%. However, outcomes for the entire cohort were excellent irrespective of initial treatment and both OS and EFS were similar after first line rituximab versus splenectomy. Long-term survival remained relatively high even following multiple lines of therapy.

Purpose: Improved predictive tools are desired in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) to improve prognostication and to better risk stratify patients (pts) for clinical trials. In younger pts who tolerate intensive therapies, focus has been on limiting late treatment toxicity through risk-adapted, PET-guided treatment strategy. In older pts, acute treatment toxicities are limiting factors for optimal disease control. Due to these fundamental differences, predictive tools may perform differently in younger and older pts. In particular, tools developed in younger pts may be suboptimal in older populations and vice versa. The primary objective of this study was to assess the performance of the A-HIPI (development was limited to 18-65 years of age) against the international prognostic score (IPS) for modelling overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in younger and older pts with cHL. Methods: This study utilized data from the population-based, nationwide Danish National Lymphoma registry. Pts with advanced-stage cHL (Ann Arbor stage III-IV or IIB with extra nodal disease) were included and categorized by age in two groups: ages ≤65 years vs. >65 years. In the primary analysis, all pts regardless of therapy were included. A sensitivity analysis restricting to pts starting on BEACOPP or ABVD was performed (Only ABVD in the >65 cohort). Concordance index (C-index) and calibration were used to assess model performance and generalizability. Calibration was visualized using calibration plots and quantified by calibration in the large (CITL) and calibration slope (CS) at 5-years post diagnosis. Results: A total of 893 advanced-stage HL pts fulfilled the inclusion criteria (634 in the ≤65 cohort and 259 in the >65 cohort). The 5-year OS and PFS in the >65-year cohort were 44% (Confidence intervals (CI); 37-51%) and 35% (CI; 30-42%), respectively. Fifty-six pts in the >65 cohort were classified as low-intermediate-risk (IPS; 1-2), 128 intermediate-risk (IPS; 3-4), and 75 high-risk (IPS; 5-7). For the ≤65 cohort, the 5-year OS and PFS was 88% (CI; 85-90%) and 76% (CI; 73-80%), respectively. Twenty-three pts were classified as low-risk (IPS; 0), 244 low-intermediate-risk, 286 intermediate-risk, and 81 high-risk. The A-HIPI had a C-index of 0.74 and 0.63 for OS and PFS, respectively in the ≤65 years cohort vs. 0.65 and 0.64 for OS and PFS, respectively, in the >65 cohort. The IPS had a C-index in the ≤65 cohort of 0.66 and 0.60 for OS and PFS, respectively, vs. 0.58 and 0.59 for OS and PFS, respectively, in the >65 cohort (i.e., the IPS performed better in the ≤65 cohort in terms of OS and PFS but was inferior to the A-HIPI). When restricting to pts treated with ABVD or BEACOPP, the A-HIPI C-index in the >65 cohort (116 pts) were reduced to 0.55 for OS and 0.54 for PFS. For the ≤65 cohort (595 pts), the A-HIPI C-index was stable at 0.75 and 0.62 for OS and PFS, respectively. In terms of A-HIPI calibration in the >65 cohort, CITL and CS were -0.78 and 0.39 for OS vs. -0.98 and 0.80 for PFS. In the ≤65 cohort, CITL and CS were -0.06 and 0.99 for OS vs. 0.21 and 1.18 for PFS. Visual inspection of the calibration plot (Figure 1) for the >65 cohort showed that the A-HIPI underestimated the observed proportion for both OS and PFS (i.e., the observed events were higher than the predicted). Calibration plot for the ≤65 cohort (Figure 2) indicated that the A-HIPI accurately modelled the observed proportion for both OS and PFS (i.e., the predicted probability was consistent with the observed proportion). Conclusion: The newly developed A-HIPI was validated in a large population-based cohort of Danish pts with advanced-stage cHL. Performance of the A-HIPI was high in the ≤65 cohort and superior to the IPS for OS prediction. Calibration of A-HIPI was excellent in pts ages ≤65 years. However, A-HIPI performed significantly worse among pts >65 years and attained poor performance in pts receiving ABVD or BEACOPP, which is not surprising since patients older than 65 were not included in the development. This study emphasizes the importance of further efforts to develop or update models that apply specifically in older individuals. The inclusion of additional variables reflecting comorbidities and pts fitness into a prognostic model may be necessary to effectively deliver accurate prognoses and risk assessments for the older pt.

Background: Event-free survival at 24 months (EFS24) after frontline immunochemotherapy (IC) is an important endpoint in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and follicular lymphoma, and patients who achieve EFS24 have similar survival compared to age- and sex-matched general population. The role of EFS24 in predicting subsequent survival has not been established in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), possibly due to perceived poor survival historically. In the last decade, the outcomes of MCL are improving in the evolving treatment landscape. In this international multicenter study, we investigated conditional survival and cause of death in patients with MCL who achieved EFS24 after frontline IC in the older and more recent eras. Methods: Outcomes after frontline IC were evaluated in 5 independent cohorts that included over 3000 patients in total: Mayo/Iowa MER prospective cohort, BC Cancer retrospective population-based cohort, US 12-center retrospective cohort, Swedish Lymphoma Registry, and Danish National Lymphoma Registry. For each cohort, 2 treatment eras were defined based on cohort-specific shifts in treatment patterns (Table 1). Overall survival (OS) after diagnosis and after achieving EFS24 were compared to the background age- and sex-matched general population using a standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Cumulative incidences of cause-specific deaths were analyzed using a competing risk model. Results: In the MER cohort, patients treated in Era M1 (2002-2009; n=147) and Era M2 (2010-2015; n=153) both had inferior OS compared to the general US population. A lower SMR in Era M2 vs M1 (2.25 vs 3.46) suggests a narrower gap in OS compared to the general US population. Lymphoma was the leading cause of death in both eras. In Era M1, patients who achieved EFS24 still had inferior OS compared to the general US population (SMR=2.40, 95% CI 1.76-3.19), and lymphoma remained the leading cause of death. For patients in Era M2 who achieved EFS24, the difference in OS compared to the general US population was not statistically significant with current follow-up (SMR=1.43, 95% CI 0.93-2.09), and lymphoma was no longer the leading cause of death (Table 2). In the BC cohort, patients treated in Era B2 (6/2013-2019; n=188) vs Era B1 (2003-5/2013; n=250) had a narrower gap in OS compared to the general British Columbia population (SMR 4.53 vs 6.69). Lymphoma was the leading cause of death in both eras. For patients achieving EFS24, the gap in OS was narrower in Era B2 vs B1 (SMR 3.56 vs 4.99). After achieving EFS24, lymphoma was the single leading cause of death for patients in Era B1 but not in Era B2 (Table 2). In the US 12-center cohort, patients treated in Era U1 (2002-2011; n=312) and Era U2 (2012-2016; n=417) both had inferior OS compared to the general US population (SMR 2.68 and 2.92, respectively). In patients who achieved EFS24, with current follow up, the difference in OS compared to the general US population was statistically significant in Era U1 (SMR=2.01, 95% CI 1.50-2.64) but not in Era U2 (SMR=1.44, 95% CI 0.82-2.34). Lymphoma was not the leading cause of death after achieving EFS24 (Table 2). In the Swedish cohort, the gap in OS compared to the general Swedish population was narrower in Era S2 (2013-2018; n=439) vs S1 (2006-2012; n=442), both after frontline IC (SMR 4.8 vs 5.4) and after achieving EFS24 (SMR 2.6 vs 3.4). After achieving EFS24, lymphoma was the leading cause of death for patients in Era S1 but not in Era S2 (Table 2). In the Danish cohort, patients treated in Era D2 (2014-2020; n=370) vs Era D1 (2004-2013; n=461) had a slightly narrower gap in OS compared to the general Danish population (SMR 1.90 vs 2.10). For patients who achieved EFS24, those in Era D1 still had inferior OS compared to the general Danish population (SMR=1.44, 95% CI 1.22-1.68), but the OS difference compared to the general Danish population in Era D2 was not statistically significant (SMR=1.27, 95% CI 0.92-1.72) with current follow-up (Table 2). Cause of death data were not available in this cohort. Conclusion: Survival in patients with MCL who achieved EFS24 after frontline IC improved in the more recent treatment era and moved closer to the background expected survival. After achieving EFS24, lymphoma-related mortality was no longer the leading cause of death in the more recent era. EFS24 following frontline treatment may become a critical endpoint for predicting subsequent outcomes in patients with MCL in the modern era.

PURPOSE CNS progression or relapse is an uncommon but devastating complication of aggressive B-cell lymphoma. There is no consensus regarding the optimal approach to CNS prophylaxis. This study was designed to determine whether high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is effective at preventing CNS progression in patients at high risk of this complication. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients age 18-80 years with aggressive B-cell lymphoma and high risk of CNS progression, treated with curative-intent anti–CD20-based chemoimmunotherapy, were included in this international, retrospective, observational study. Cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and cumulative risks of CNS progression were calculated according to use of HD-MTX, with time to CNS progression calculated from diagnosis for all patients (all-pts) and from completion of frontline systemic lymphoma induction therapy, for patients in complete response at completion of chemoimmunotherapy (CR-pts). RESULTS Two thousand four hundred eighteen all-pts (HD-MTX; n = 425) and 1,616 CR-pts (HD-MTX; n = 356) were included. CNS International Prognostic Index was 4-6 in 83.4% all-pts. Patients treated with HD-MTX had a lower risk of CNS progression (adjusted HR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.38 to 0.90]; P = .014), but significance was not retained when confined to CR-pts (adjusted HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.42 to 1.30]; P = .29), with 5-year adjusted risk difference of 1.6% (95% CI, –1.5 to 4.4; all-pts) and 1.4% (95% CI, –1.5 to 4.1; CR-pts). Subgroups were underpowered to draw definitive conclusions regarding the efficacy of HD-MTX in individual high-risk clinical scenarios; however, there was no clear reduction in CNS progression risk with HD-MTX in any high-risk subgroup. CONCLUSION In this large study, high-risk patients receiving HD-MTX had a 7.2% 2-year risk of CNS progression, consistent with the progression risk in previously reported high-risk cohorts. Use of HD-MTX was not associated with a clinically meaningful reduction in risk of CNS progression.

Abstract Time to progression of disease (POD) after first-line (1L) therapy is prognostic in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), although studies have included a broad range of 1L, second-line (2L), and subsequent lines of therapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factors predicting outcomes in patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) MCL exclusively initiating 2L Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitors (BTKis) after 1L rituximab-containing therapy. Patients were accrued from 8 international centers (7 main, 1 validation cohort). Multivariable models evaluating the association between time to POD and clinical/pathologic factors were constructed and converted into nomograms and prognostic indexes predicting outcomes in this population. A total of 360 patients were included, including 160 in the main cohort and 200 in the validation cohort. Time to POD, Ki67 ≥ 30%, and MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI) were associated with progression-free survival (PFS2) and overall survival (OS2) from the start of 2L BTKis. C-indexes were consistently ≥0.68 in both cohorts. Web/application-based calculators based on nomograms and prognostic indexes to estimate PFS2 and OS2 were constructed. The 2L BTKi MIPI identifies 3 groups with distinct 2-year PFS2, including high risk (14%), intermediate risk (50%), and low risk (64%). Time to POD, Ki67, and MIPI are associated with survival outcomes in patients with R/R MCL receiving 2L BTKis. Simple clinical models incorporating these variables may assist in planning for alternative therapies such as chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy, allogeneic stem cell transplantation, or novel agents with alternative mechanisms of action.

Abstract Idasanutlin, an MDM2 antagonist, showed clinical activity and a rapid reduction in JAK2 V617F allele burden in patients with polycythemia vera (PV) in a phase 1 study. This open-label phase 2 study evaluated idasanutlin in patients with hydroxyurea (HU)-resistant/-intolerant PV, per the European LeukemiaNet criteria, and phlebotomy dependence; prior ruxolitinib exposure was permitted. Idasanutlin was administered once daily on days 1 through 5 of each 28-day cycle. The primary end point was composite response (hematocrit control and spleen volume reduction > 35%) in patients with splenomegaly and hematocrit control in patients without splenomegaly at week 32. Key secondary end points included safety, complete hematologic response (CHR), patient-reported outcomes, and molecular responses. All patients (n = 27) received idasanutlin; 16 had response assessment (week 32). Among responders with baseline splenomegaly (n = 13), 9 (69%) attained any spleen volume reduction, and 1 achieved composite response. Nine patients (56%) achieved hematocrit control, and 8 patients (50%) achieved CHR. Overall, 43% of evaluable patients (6/14) showed a ≥50% reduction in the Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Symptom Assessment Form Total Symptom Score (week 32). Nausea (93%), diarrhea (78%), and vomiting (41%) were the most common adverse events, with grade ≥ 3 nausea or vomiting experienced by 3 patients (11%) and 1 patient (4%), respectively. Reduced JAK2 V617F allele burden occurred early (after 3 cycles), with a median reduction of 76%, and was associated with achieving CHR and hematocrit control. Overall, the idasanutlin dosing regimen showed clinical activity and rapidly reduced JAK2 allele burden in patients with HU-resistant/- intolerant PV but was associated with low-grade gastrointestinal toxicity, leading to poor long-term tolerability. This trial was registered at www.clinincaltrials.gov as #NCT03287245.