Citations

Background: Several breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models have been developed to provide personal risk assessments. Though individually validated, their performance has not been systematically evaluated across a wide range of populations or ages. Methods: We harmonized individual-level baseline questionnaire data and incident BC diagnoses from 21 cohorts from North America, Europe, and Australia participating in the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project. Five-year absolute risk of invasive BC was estimated for five established risk prediction models using classical risk factors only. Discrimination was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using average and risk-decile specific expected to observed (E/O) ratios. Performance metrics were meta-analyzed across cohorts and models. Metaregression tested associations between cohort characteristics and performance metrics. Results: This analysis included 1,595,977 women aged 20-75 years, enrolled in studies between 1976-2015, with 19,062 (1.2%) invasive BC cases ascertained within 5 years from exposure assessment. Age-adjusted AUCs were similar across models and cohorts (pooled AUCs by model: 0.57-0.58), while E/O ratios varied substantially (pooled E/O ratios by model: 0.83-1.25). Overestimation was common among predicted high-risk individuals (>3%). No appreciable differences in model performance by cohort age, birth year, race, and variable missingness emerged. Calibration improved after assigning race-specific incidence rates. Conclusion: Existing BC risk prediction models provided similar risk discrimination across multiple cohorts, although there was overestimation of risk for high-risk individuals. Performance variation across cohorts was not driven by specific characteristics, which supports development of a unified risk model for diverse populations that leverages appropriate incidence rates.

Summary Background Body composition is recognized as a major determinant of health outcomes, but its multidimensional nature makes clinical adoption challenging. We sought to develop and validate a body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality risk assessment, integrating variables of six body composition tissues. Methods We analyzed 28509 consecutive patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging with routine low-dose chest CT attenuation correction (CTAC) scans acquired during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) at 12 centers across four countries. An artificial intelligence-based BCI was developed in a cohort of 15037 patients’ CTACs by integrating the CT-derived metrics of bone, skeletal muscle, and four adipose tissue compartments, coronary artery calcium score, and basic demographic variables (age, sex, BMI). The performance of BCI for mortality prediction was validated in an internal cohort of 6444 patients and an external cohort of 7028 patients by prognosis, calibration, net benefit, and explainability. Model-based simulation of tissue metrics modification was performed to evaluate estimated mortality risk reduction. Findings During a median of 3.5 (IQR [1.9, 5.1]) years, 4697 (16%) patients died. In the external testing cohort, the BCI demonstrated excellent discrimination for mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI [0.76, 0.79]) and Harrell’s concordance index 0.75 [0.73, 0.76]), calibration, and net benefit overall and across pre-specified subgroups stratified by patient characteristics and imaging protocols. Visceral adipose tissue attenuation was the most influential body composition measure, followed by skeletal muscle volume. Simulated improvement in body composition was associated with significant mortality risk reduction. Interpretation An index combining six body composition measures obtained opportunistically from routine chest CT provides robust mortality risk stratification. By converting complex body composition information into a single interpretable score, the BCI can facilitate clinical implementation of opportunistic CT biomarkers and guide individualized preventive strategies. Funding National Institute of Health Research in context Evidence before this study We searched PubMed and Google Scholar on July 7, 2026 for English language studies using the terms (“mortality prediction” OR “death prediction”) AND (“integrated body composition analysis” OR “body composition metrics integration”) AND (“predictive model” OR “model development”), and identified 41 publications describing predictive models incorporating body composition metrics. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly granular quantification of body composition from CT, with multiple tissues and tissue-specific metrics showing independent prognostic value for all-cause mortality (ACM) prediction. However, reported associations of body composition metrics with mortality risk were highly inconsistent or even contradictory across studies. This heterogeneity likely reflected the differences in study design or the inherent complexity of body composition analysis, such as the interaction among variables derived from multiple tissues. Thus, it is difficult to interpret body composition results reliably in clinical practice. We hypothesized that integrating multiple body composition metrics could achieve comprehensive and reliable prediction of mortality across patient populations. Added value of this study In this large international, multicenter longitudinal cohort study of 28509 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging across 12 sites in four countries, we developed and externally validated an artificial intelligence-based body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality prediction. The BCI integrated chest CT-derived metrics of six body composition tissue compartments – bone, skeletal muscle (SM), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT), together with demographics (age, sex, BMI) and CT-derived coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, all derived automatically from routine low-dose attenuation correction CT scans without additional imaging or laboratory tests. In an external validation cohort of 7028 patients, the BCI achieved robust discrimination for mortality prediction, substantially outperforming a baseline model using demographics and calcium score alone, and exceeded the discriminative performance of prior body composition models. Performance was consistent across subgroups defined by sex, age, body mass index, cardiometabolic risk factors, imaging modality, and acquisition protocol, supporting generalizability across clinical settings. The BCI demonstrated excellent calibration and net clinical benefit. Explainability analysis identified visceral adipose tissue attenuation and skeletal muscle volume as the dominant contributors to mortality risk, offering tissue-specific therapeutic targets that complement generic weight-based metrics. Model-based simulations suggested that improvements in these specific compartments could reduce estimated mortality risk more effectively than equivalent changes in BMI alone, pointing toward precision therapeutic targets beyond weight reduction. Our study improved over previous literatures on body composition-based predictive models in one or more of the following ways: (1) we considered six types of body composition tissues while existing studies considered only three or less tissues, thus significantly higher granularity and improved ability to capture refined tissue interactions; (2) our model was rigorously validated in external sites, showing cross-site generalizability while most previous work lacked external validation; (3) our model achieved significant prediction performance improvement over previous body composition predictive models, offering better clinical outcomes prediction and facilitating the suitability for widespread clinical adoption; (4) our study was conducted with a large multi-center cohort across multiple countries, achieving statistical power and demonstrating reliability towards patients characteristics and imaging acquisition protocols while previous studies involved small single-center cohorts; (5) our model required only CT scans and basic demographics which were widely available in clinical routine while the existing models required dedicated laboratory tests or specialized imaging modalities, enhancing the applicability in routine clinical practice. Implications of all the available evidence BCI offers an explainable and clinically deployable tool for improved prediction of mortality risk from existing chest CT scans. Its use could inform updates to existing risk models, guide precision preventive strategies, and support development of therapeutics targeting specific body composition phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Aortic enlargement is a powerful predictor of dissection and rupture, yet it is rarely evaluated during routine myocardial perfusion imaging, despite the widespread availability of computed tomography (CT) attenuation correction scans. The aim of this study was to determine whether fully automated, opportunistically derived, artificial intelligence-based aortic measurements from myocardial perfusion imaging CT attenuation correction scans are associated with adverse outcomes in a large multicenter cohort. METHODS: CT attenuation correction scans from patients undergoing positron emission tomography/CT and single-photon emission CT/CT myocardial perfusion imaging across 10 centers were included. A deep learning model automatically segmented the thoracic aorta, and a postprocessing algorithm extracted maximum ascending and descending diameters. The aortic size index was calculated by indexing the diameter to body surface area. RESULTS: A total of 29 339 patients (56% men; median age, 66 years [interquartile range, 58–75 years]) were included. Over a median follow-up of 3.5 years (interquartile range, 1.9–5.0 years), 5083 (17.3%) patients died. Median ascending and descending aortic size index values were 1.8 cm/m 2 (interquartile range, 1.6–2.0) and 1.5 cm/m 2 (interquartile range, 1.4–1.6), respectively, with an increase with age and higher values in females. Elevated aortic size index thresholds (ascending >2.2 cm/m 2 ; descending >1.6 cm/m 2 ) were significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (ascending: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.07–1.26], P <0.001; descending: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.14–1.31]; P <0.001). Notably, the prognostic value of an abnormal aortic size index persisted independent of age, sex, and perfusion abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence can unlock previously unused information within routine myocardial perfusion imaging CT attenuation correction scans by rapidly and automatically quantifying aortic size at scale. Opportunistic aortic measurements derived from CT attenuation correction may serve as an adjunctive risk biomarker and could add prognostic value to standard myocardial perfusion imaging without additional imaging or radiation.

ABSTRACT Background Anemia is an established marker of cardiovascular disease severity and risk which leads to elevations in resting myocardial blood flow (MBF) and impaired myocardial flow reserve (MFR) in patients without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Anemia can potentially be detected opportunistically from blood pool density changes on computed tomography (CT) imaging. Objectives We evaluated relationships between chamber density measurements with hemoglobin, positron emission tomography (PET) findings, and cardiovascular events. Methods We included 33460 patients from 13 sites in the REFINE-PET who underwent PET and 24368 patients undergoing lung cancer screening chest CT. A deep learning model segmented cardiac chambers from CT images, then quantified chamber density. We evaluated the relationship between chamber density measures with resting MBF and MFR, as well as associations with death or myocardial infarction (MI). Results We included a total of 57,828 patients. A higher density in myocardium compared to left ventricle blood pool was associated with reduced MFR (adjusted odds ratio 3.02 per SD increase, 95% confidence interval[CI] 2.72 – 3.38) and an increased risk of death or MI in (adjusted hazard ratio[HR] 1.38 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.26-1.51). Having myocardial density higher than blood pool density was also associated with cardiovascular death in patients undergoing low-dose chest CT (adjusted HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.20-2.52). Conclusions In a large multimodality dataset, lower cardiac chamber density is associated with impaired MFR and independently associated with cardiovascular events. These biomarkers can be automatically extracted from CT to provide physiologic insights and potentially guide patient care. CONDENSED ABSTRACT Anemia is an important marker of cardiovascular disease severity and predictor of cardiovascular events. We utilized deep learning to measure cardiac chamber density on computed tomography imaging as a surrogate for anemia in 57,828 patients from two large multicenter studies. A higher density in myocardium compared to left ventricle blood pool was associated with reduced MFR and an increased risk of death or MI in patients undergoing positron emission tomography, and an increased risk of cardiovascular death in patients undergoing low-dose computed tomography. These biomarkers can provide additionally physiologic insights which could be used to guide patient care.

ABSTRACT Aims Exercise capacity is a powerful predictor of cardiovascular risk. In patients unable to exercise, body composition analysis can potentially be used to estimate cardiorespiratory fitness. We developed a body composition “fitness” score, then validated its utility in two external populations. Methods and Results We included patients from four sites undergoing single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and twelve sites undergoing positron emission tomography (PET). We quantified body composition using deep learning. We evaluated associations between body composition and good exercise capacity (defined as completing ≥7 minutes on a Bruce protocol) then developed a body composition “fitness” score. We then assessed the associations of “fitness” score with exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in external populations. In total, 36471 patients were included with median age 67 (interquartile range 58 – 74). Median skeletal muscle density was higher among patients with good exercise capacity. In the external SPECT population, the body composition “fitness” score had higher prediction performance for good exercise capacity (AUC 0.771, 95% CI 0.752 – 0.789) than age (AUC 0.717, p<0.01). In the external PET population, high body composition “fitness” score was associated with lower cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.70, 95% CI 0.62 – 0.79, p<0.001). Conclusions We demonstrated that a comprehensive body composition “fitness” score could identify patients with good cardiorespiratory fitness. This approach transforms routinely acquired CT data into a surrogate marker of fitness which can be applied in patients undergoing PET, or other CT imaging, where exercise testing is not performed. Graphical Abstract Overview of study design. The overall population (n=36471) was split as outlined above. Body composition was analyzed from available computed tomography imaging. The distribution of body composition measures were analyzed in the combined single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) populations. A body composition “fitness” score was derived to predict good exercise capacity in the internal population, with associations assessed in the two external testing populations.

Abstract Purpose Spatial distribution of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may provide additional prognostic value in patients undergoing SPECT and PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). We aimed to automatically identify CAC in proximal segments from attenuation correction CT (CTAC) scans using artificial intelligence (AI) and to evaluate prognostic significance in two large international multicenter registries. Methods From hybrid MPI/CT imaging (N=43,099) across 15 sites, we included 4,552 most relevant patients with 1) no prior coronary artery disease; 2) AI-derived mild CAC scores (1-99); and 3) normal perfusion (stress total perfusion deficit <5%). The independent associations between AI-identified proximal CAC and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM) were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression, likelihood ratio test (LRT), and continuous net reclassification index (NRI). Results Among the patients with mild CAC and normal perfusion (mean age 65±12 years, 51% male), 1,730 (38%) had proximal CAC. Over 3.6 (inter-quartile interval 2.1, 5.2) years follow-up, 599 (13%) and 444 (10%) patients had MACE or ACM, respectively. Proximal CAC was associated with an increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.03–1.48, P=0.02) and ACM (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.01–1.53, P=0.04) after the adjustment of CAC score and density, clinical risk factors, and perfusion deficit. Proximal CAC improved the risk stratification of MACE (LRT P=0.02; NRI 12%) and ACM (LRT P=0.04; NRI 12%). Conclusion In patients with mild CAC and normal perfusion, AI detection of proximal CAC identified a higher-risk group for adverse outcomes, highlighting its prognostic utility. Graphical Abstract From patients who underwent hybrid myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) from 15 sites, we analyzed those without prior coronary artery disease (CAD), mild coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores (1-99), and normal perfusion (stress total perfusion deficit <5%). A previously developed AI model was used to identify CAC lesions in proximal coronary segments on CT attenuation correction maps (CTAC). We evaluated associations with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM), showing risk stratification of proximal CAC and improvement by net reclassification index (NRI). CAC lesion color: green, left anterior descending artery (LAD) with left main artery; red, left circumflex artery (LCX); yellow, right coronary artery (RCA). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) are shown with 95% confidence intervals.

Abstract Background and Aims Positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is a vital diagnostic tool, especially in patients with cardiometabolic syndrome. Low-dose CT scans are routinely performed with PET for attenuation correction and potentially contain valuable data about body tissue composition. Deep learning and image processing were combined to automatically quantify skeletal muscle (SM), bone and adipose tissue from these scans and then evaluate their associations with death or myocardial infarction (MI). Methods In PET MPI from three sites, deep learning quantified SM, bone, epicardial adipose tissue (EAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and intermuscular adipose tissue (IMAT). Sex-specific thresholds for abnormal values were established. Associations with death or MI were evaluated using unadjusted and multivariable models adjusted for clinical and imaging factors. Results This study included 10 085 patients, with median age 68 (interquartile range 59–76) and 5767 (57%) male. Body tissue segmentations were completed in 102 ± 4 s. Higher VAT density was associated with an increased risk of death or MI in both unadjusted [hazard ratio (HR) 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–1.43] and adjusted (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19–1.28) analyses, with similar findings for IMAT, SAT, and EAT. Patients with elevated VAT density and reduced myocardial flow reserve had a significantly increased risk of death or MI (adjusted HR 2.49, 95% CI 2.23–2.77). Conclusions Volumetric body tissue composition can be obtained rapidly and automatically from standard cardiac PET/CT. This new information provides a detailed, quantitative assessment of sarcopenia and cardiometabolic health for physicians.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 susceptibility loci for breast cancer, but these variants explain less than a fifth of the disease risk. Although gene–environment interactions have been proposed to account for some of the remaining heritability, few studies have empirically assessed this. We obtained genotype and risk factor data from 46,060 cases and 47,929 controls of European ancestry from population-based studies within the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). We built gene expression prediction models for 4,864 genes with a significant (P &lt; 0.01) heritable component using the transcriptome and genotype data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. We leveraged predicted gene expression information to investigate the interactions between gene-centric genetic variation and 14 established risk factors in association with breast cancer risk, using a mixed-effects score test. After adjusting for number of tests using Bonferroni correction, no interaction remained statistically significant. The strongest interaction observed was between the predicted expression of the C13orf45 gene and age at first full-term pregnancy (PGXE = 4.44 × 10−6). In this transcriptome-informed genome-wide gene–environment interaction study of breast cancer, we found no strong support for the role of gene expression in modifying the associations between established risk factors and breast cancer risk. Our study suggests a limited role of gene–environment interactions in breast cancer risk.

Abstract Background: The etiology of colorectal cancer is not fully understood. Methods: Using genetic variants and metabolomics data including 217 metabolites from the Framingham Heart Study (n = 1,357), we built genetic prediction models for circulating metabolites. Models with prediction R2 &gt; 0.01 (Nmetabolite = 58) were applied to predict levels of metabolites in two large consortia with a combined sample size of approximately 46,300 cases and 59,200 controls of European and approximately 21,700 cases and 47,400 controls of East Asian (EA) descent. Genetically predicted levels of metabolites were evaluated for their associations with colorectal cancer risk in logistic regressions within each racial group, after which the results were combined by meta-analysis. Results: Of the 58 metabolites tested, 24 metabolites were significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk [Benjamini–Hochberg FDR (BH-FDR) &lt; 0.05] in the European population (ORs ranged from 0.91 to 1.06; P values ranged from 0.02 to 6.4 × 10−8). Twenty one of the 24 associations were replicated in the EA population (ORs ranged from 0.26 to 1.69, BH-FDR &lt; 0.05). In addition, the genetically predicted levels of C16:0 cholesteryl ester was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk in the EA population only (OREA: 1.94, 95% CI, 1.60−2.36, P = 2.6 × 10−11; OREUR: 1.01, 95% CI, 0.99−1.04, P = 0.3). Nineteen of the 25 metabolites were glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols (TAG). Eighteen associations exhibited significant heterogeneity between the two racial groups (PEUR-EA-Het &lt; 0.005), which were more strongly associated in the EA population. This integrative study suggested a potential role of lipids, especially certain glycerophospholipids and TAGs, in the etiology of colorectal cancer. Conclusions: This study identified potential novel risk biomarkers for colorectal cancer by integrating genetics and circulating metabolomics data. Impact: The identified metabolites could be developed into new tools for risk assessment of colorectal cancer in both European and EA populations.

AbstractBackground:The role of methylation in pancreatic cancer risk remains unclear. We integrated genome and methylome data to identify CpG sites (CpG) with the genetically predicted methylation to be associated with pancreatic cancer risk. We also studied gene expression to understand the identified associations.Methods:Using genetic data and white blood cell methylation data from 1,595 subjects of European descent, we built genetic models to predict DNA methylation levels. After internal and external validation, we applied prediction models with satisfactory performance to the genetic data of 8,280 pancreatic cancer cases and 6,728 controls of European ancestry to investigate the associations of predicted methylation with pancreatic cancer risk. For associated CpGs, we compared their measured levels in pancreatic tumor versus benign tissue.Results:We identified 45 CpGs at nine loci showing an association with pancreatic cancer risk, including 15 CpGs showing an association independent from identified risk variants. We observed significant correlations between predicted methylation of 16 of the 45 CpGs and predicted expression of eight adjacent genes, of which six genes showed associations with pancreatic cancer risk. Of the 45 CpGs, we were able to compare measured methylation of 16 in pancreatic tumor versus benign pancreatic tissue. Of them, six showed differentiated methylation.Conclusions:We identified methylation biomarker candidates associated with pancreatic cancer using genetic instruments and added additional insights into the role of methylation in regulating gene expression in pancreatic cancer development.Impact:A comprehensive study using genetic instruments identifies 45 CpG sites at nine genomic loci for pancreatic cancer risk.