Rohan, Thomas E.

Background: Several breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models have been developed to provide personal risk assessments. Though individually validated, their performance has not been systematically evaluated across a wide range of populations or ages. Methods: We harmonized individual-level baseline questionnaire data and incident BC diagnoses from 21 cohorts from North America, Europe, and Australia participating in the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Project. Five-year absolute risk of invasive BC was estimated for five established risk prediction models using classical risk factors only. Discrimination was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed using average and risk-decile specific expected to observed (E/O) ratios. Performance metrics were meta-analyzed across cohorts and models. Metaregression tested associations between cohort characteristics and performance metrics. Results: This analysis included 1,595,977 women aged 20-75 years, enrolled in studies between 1976-2015, with 19,062 (1.2%) invasive BC cases ascertained within 5 years from exposure assessment. Age-adjusted AUCs were similar across models and cohorts (pooled AUCs by model: 0.57-0.58), while E/O ratios varied substantially (pooled E/O ratios by model: 0.83-1.25). Overestimation was common among predicted high-risk individuals (>3%). No appreciable differences in model performance by cohort age, birth year, race, and variable missingness emerged. Calibration improved after assigning race-specific incidence rates. Conclusion: Existing BC risk prediction models provided similar risk discrimination across multiple cohorts, although there was overestimation of risk for high-risk individuals. Performance variation across cohorts was not driven by specific characteristics, which supports development of a unified risk model for diverse populations that leverages appropriate incidence rates.

Abstract Background Completing adjuvant chemotherapy and reducing toxicities are critical for maximizing survival after a colon cancer diagnosis. Sex, as a biological variable, may affect colon cancer chemotherapy completion, toxicities, and survival differently. Methods From a National Cancer Institute–sponsored trial conducted among patients with stage III colon cancer (Cancer and Leukemia Group B (Alliance)/Southwest Oncology Group 80702), we included 2201 patients receiving the standard adjuvant chemotherapy regimen of fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin. We calculated relative dose intensity to indicate chemotherapy completion and considered reduced relative dose intensity (values <85%) as a clinically significant deviation from standard fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin. Using National Cancer Institute’s Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, we defined severe adverse events (grade ≥3) as the occurrence of any following event, including neutrophil count decrease, nausea, platelet count decrease, hypertension, peripheral neuropathy, diarrhea, fatigue, gastritis, creatinine level increase, gastric ulcer, myocardial ischemia, and cerebral ischemia. The primary survival outcome was disease-free survival (time from enrollment to colon cancer recurrence or death from any cause), and secondary survival outcomes were recurrence-free and overall survival. Results Compared with men, women were at statistically significantly higher risks of experiencing reduced relative dose intensity (adjusted odds ratio = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.29 to 1.96; P < .001) and severe advance events (adjusted odds ratio = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.41 to 2.11; P < .001). Yet, women had statistically significantly better disease-free survival (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.87; P < .001) as well as better recurrence-free and overall survival. Conclusions Our findings suggested that women with colon cancer are more likely to have worse chemotherapy completion rates and more severe adverse events, but they have better survival. Sex as a biological variable warrants further consideration in chemotherapy administration and survivorship management after colon cancer diagnosis.

Abstract Background: Prior research on the associations of p16, COX-2, and Ki67 immunopositivity in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) tissue with the risk of subsequent ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (IBC) is limited. Methods: In a case–control study nested in a cohort of women diagnosed with DCIS, immunostaining for p16, COX-2, and Ki67 was performed on DCIS tissue from those who developed subsequent ipsilateral IBC (cases; n = 146) and on matched subjects who did not develop IBC (controls; n = 273). Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals for the associations between immunopositivity for p16, COX-2, and Ki67 and the risk of subsequent ipsilateral IBC. Results: There was no association between p16, COX-2, and Ki67 immunopositivity, examined either individually or in combination, and a risk of ipsilateral IBC. Compared with all other groups, the multivariable OR (95% confidence interval) for women who were triple positive for the three markers was 1.16 (0.38–3.54). Conclusions: p16, COX-2, and Ki67 immunopositivity was not associated with altered risk of ipsilateral IBC in women with DCIS. Impact: p16, COX-2, and Ki67 may not be prognostic for ipsilateral IBC in women with DCIS.

PURPOSE There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer. METHODS We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity. RESULTS Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship ( Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity. CONCLUSION This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Introduction Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is a non-obligate precursor of invasive breast cancer (IBC). Many DCIS patients are either undertreated or overtreated. The overarching goal of the study described here is to facilitate detection of patients with DCIS at risk of IBC development. Here, we propose to use risk factor data and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) DCIS tissue from a large, ethnically diverse, population-based cohort of 8175 women with a first diagnosis of DCIS and followed for subsequent IBC to: identify/validate miRNA expression changes in DCIS tissue associated with risk of subsequent IBC; evaluate ipsilateral IBC risk in association with two previously identified marker sets (triple immunopositivity for p16, COX-2, Ki67; Oncotype DX Breast DCIS score); examine the association of risk factor data with IBC risk. Methods and analysis We are conducting a series of case–control studies nested within the cohort. Cases are women with DCIS who developed subsequent IBC; controls (2/case) are matched to cases on calendar year of and age at DCIS diagnosis. We project 485 cases/970 controls in the aim focused on risk factors. We estimate obtaining FFPE tissue for 320 cases/640 controls for the aim focused on miRNAs; of these, 173 cases/346 controls will be included in the aim focused on p16, COX-2 and Ki67 immunopositivity, and of the latter, 156 case–control pairs will be included in the aim focused on the Oncotype DX Breast DCIS score®. Multivariate conditional logistic regression will be used for statistical analyses. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Boards of Albert Einstein College of Medicine (IRB 2014-3611), Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Kaiser Permanente Hawaii, Henry Ford Health System, Mayo Clinic, Marshfield Clinic Research Institute and Hackensack Meridian Health, and from Lifespan Research Protection Office. The study results will be presented at meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Abstract Background: The influence of sex hormone and insulin/insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis signaling on endometrial cancer recurrence is unknown. We evaluated these pathways in a prospective cohort of Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG)0210 trial endometrial adenocarcinoma patients. Methods: Stage II–IV patients (N = 816) were included in this study. Pretreatment specimens were tested for tumor mRNA and protein expression of IGF1, IGF2, IGF-binding proteins (IGFBP)-1 and -3, insulin (IR) and IGF-I receptors (IGF1R), phosphorylated IR/IGF1R (pIGF1R/pIR), and estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptors (PR) using qPCR and IHC. Serum concentrations of insulin, IGF-I, IGFBP-3, estradiol, estrone, and sex hormone binding globulin were measured. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for progression-free survival were calculated from Cox models adjusting for age, stage, and grade. Results: Recurrence occurred in 280 (34%) cases during a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. ER positivity (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.47–0.95), IR positivity (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.29–0.98), and circulating IGF-I (highest vs. lowest quartile: HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.47–0.92) were inversely associated with recurrence risk. Circulating estradiol (highest vs. lowest tertile: HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02–2.36) and pIGF1R/pIR positivity (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02–1.92) were associated with increased recurrence risk. Conclusions: Circulating estradiol and tumor tissue phosphorylated (activated) IGR1R/IR were independently associated with higher risk of recurrence in patients with endometrial cancer. Impact: This study may inform future clinical trials of endocrine-targeted adjuvant therapies in patients with endometrial cancer that could include baseline assessment of serum and tissue biomarkers of estradiol and insulin signaling pathways.

Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimens, when used in conjunction with patient clinical data history, represent an invaluable resource for molecular studies of cancer. Even though nucleic acids extracted from archived FFPE tissues are degraded, their molecular analysis has become possible. In this study, we optimized a laboratory-based next-generation sequencing barcoded cDNA library preparation protocol for analysis of small RNAs recovered from archived FFPE tissues. Using matched fresh and FFPE specimens, we evaluated the robustness and reproducibility of our optimized approach, as well as its applicability to archived clinical specimens stored for up to 35 years. We then evaluated this cDNA library preparation protocol by performing a miRNA expression analysis of archived breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) specimens, selected for their relation to the risk of subsequent breast cancer development and obtained from six different institutions. Our analyses identified six miRNAs (miR-29a, miR-221, miR-375, miR-184, miR-363, miR-455-5p) differentially expressed between DCIS lesions from women who subsequently developed an invasive breast cancer (cases) and women who did not develop invasive breast cancer within the same time interval (control). Our thorough evaluation and application of this laboratory-based miRNA sequencing analysis indicates that the preparation of small RNA cDNA libraries can reliably be performed on older, archived, clinically-classified specimens.

Abstract Intervention trials with supplemental β-carotene have observed either no effect or a harmful effect on lung cancer risk. Because food composition databases for specific carotenoids have only become available recently, epidemiological evidence relating usual dietary levels of these carotenoids with lung cancer risk is limited. We analyzed the association between lung cancer risk and intakes of specific carotenoids using the primary data from seven cohort studies in North America and Europe. Carotenoid intakes were estimated from dietary questionnaires administered at baseline in each study. We calculated study-specific multivariate relative risks (RRs) and combined these using a random-effects model. The multivariate models included smoking history and other potential risk factors. During follow-up of up to 7–16 years across studies, 3,155 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed among 399,765 participants. β-Carotene intake was not associated with lung cancer risk (pooled multivariate RR = 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.87–1.11; highest versus lowest quintile). The RRs for α-carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin, and lycopene were also close to unity. β-Cryptoxanthin intake was inversely associated with lung cancer risk (RR = 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.67–0.86; highest versus lowest quintile). These results did not change after adjustment for intakes of vitamin C (with or without supplements), folate (with or without supplements), and other carotenoids and multivitamin use. The associations generally were similar among never, past, or current smokers and by histological type. Although smoking is the strongest risk factor for lung cancer, greater intake of foods high in β-cryptoxanthin, such as citrus fruit, may modestly lower the risk.

AbstractBecause fruits and vegetables are rich in bioactive compounds with potential cancer-preventive actions, increased consumption may reduce the risk of ovarian cancer. Evidence on the association between fruit and vegetable intake and ovarian cancer risk has not been consistent. We analyzed and pooled the primary data from 12 prospective studies in North America and Europe. Fruit and vegetable intake was measured at baseline in each study using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. To summarize the association between fruit and vegetable intake and ovarian cancer, study-specific relative risks (RR) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model, and then combined using a random-effects model. Among 560,441 women, 2,130 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer occurred during a maximum follow-up of 7 to 22 years across studies. Total fruit intake was not associated with ovarian cancer risk—the pooled multivariate RR for the highest versus the lowest quartile of intake was 1.06 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.92-1.21; P value, test for trend = 0.73; P value, test for between-studies heterogeneity = 0.74]. Similarly, results for total vegetable intake indicated no significant association (pooled multivariate RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.78-1.04, for the highest versus the lowest quartile; P value, test for trend = 0.06; P value, test for between-studies heterogeneity = 0.31). Intakes of botanically defined fruit and vegetable groups and individual fruits and vegetables were also not associated with ovarian cancer risk. Associations for total fruits and vegetables were similar for different histologic types. These results suggest that fruit and vegetable consumption in adulthood has no important association with the risk of ovarian cancer.