Citations

Background and Purpose— Hemicraniectomy and Durotomy Upon Deterioration From Infarction-Related Swelling Trial (HeADDFIRST) was a randomized pilot study to obtain information necessary to design a Phase III trial to evaluate the benefit of surgical decompression for brain swelling from large supratentorial cerebral hemispheric infarction. Methods— All patients with stroke were screened for eligibility (age 18–75 years, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≥18 with Item 1a<2 [responsive to minor stimulation], and CT demonstrating unilateral, complete middle cerebral artery territory infarction by specific imaging criteria). All enrolled patients were treated using a standardized medical treatment protocol. Those with both ≥4 mm of pineal shift and deterioration in level of arousal or ≥7.5 mm of anteroseptal shift within 96 hours of stroke onset were randomized to continued medical treatment only or medical treatment plus surgery. Death at 21 days was the primary outcome measure. Results— Among 4909 screened patients, only 66 (1.3%) patients were eligible for HeADDFIRST. Forty patients were enrolled, and 26 patients developed the requisite brain swelling for randomization. All who failed to meet randomization criteria were alive at 21 days. Mortality at 21 and 180 days was 40% (4/10) in the medical treatment only and 21% (3/14) and 36% (5/14) in the medical treatment plus surgery arms, respectively. Conclusions— HeADDFIRST randomization criteria effectively distinguished low from high risk of death from large supratentorial cerebral hemispheric infarction. Lower mortality in the medical treatment only group than in other published trials suggests a possible benefit to standardizing medical management. These results can inform the interpretation of recently completed European trials concerning patient selection and medical management. Clinical Trial Registration— This trial was not registered because enrollment began before July 1, 2005.

Background— A simple risk score to predict long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using preprocedural risk factors is currently not available. In this study, we created one by simplifying the results of a Cox proportional hazards model. Methods and Results— A total of 11 897 patients who underwent PCI from October through December 2003 in New York State were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. Patients’ vital statuses were tracked using the National Death Index through the end of 2008. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after PCI using the derivation sample, and a simplified risk score was created. The Cox model identified 12 separate risk factors for mortality including older age, extreme body mass indexes, multivessel disease, a lower ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, several comorbidities (cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, and renal failure), and a history of coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The C statistics of this model when applied to the validation sample were 0.787, 0.785, and 0.773 for risks of death within 1, 3, and 5 years after PCI, respectively. In addition, the point-based risk score demonstrated good agreement between patients’ observed and predicted risks of death. Conclusions— A simple risk score created from a more complicated Cox proportional hazards model can be used to accurately predict a patient’s risk of long-term mortality after PCI.

Background The utility of longitudinal, circumferential, and radial strain and strain rate in determining prognosis in chronic heart failure is not well established. Methods and Results In 416 patients with chronic systolic heart failure, we performed speckle‐tracking analyses of left ventricular longitudinal, circumferential, and radial strain and strain rate on archived echocardiography images (30 frames per second). Cox regression models were used to determine the associations between strain and strain rate and risk of all‐cause mortality, cardiac transplantation, and ventricular‐assist device placement. The area under the time‐dependent ROC curve ( AUC ) was also calculated at 1 year and 5 years. Over a maximum follow‐up of 8.9 years, there were 138 events (33.2%). In unadjusted models, all strain and strain rate parameters were associated with adverse outcomes ( P <0.001). In multivariable models, all parameters with the exception of radial strain rate ( P =0.11) remained independently associated, with patients in the lowest tertile of strain or strain rate parameter having a ≈2‐fold increased risk of adverse outcomes compared with the reference group ( P <0.05). Addition of strain to ejection fraction ( EF ) led to a significantly improved AUC at 1 year (0.697 versus 0.633, P =0.032) and 5 years (0.700 versus 0.638, P =0.001). In contrast, strain rate did not provide incremental prognostic value to EF alone. Conclusions Longitudinal and circumferential strain and strain rate, and radial strain are associated with chronic heart failure prognosis. Strain provides incremental value to EF in the prediction of adverse outcomes, and with additional study may be a clinically relevant prognostic tool.