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OBJECTIVES: Histologic remission is a potentially valuable means of assessing disease activity and treatment response in ulcerative colitis (UC). However, the efficacy of existing therapies to achieve this outcome is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of histologic outcomes in UC randomized controlled trials and examined the relationship between histologic and endoscopic outcomes. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and the Cochrane IBD Register were searched for randomized controlled trials of aminosalicylates, corticosteroids, immunosuppressives, biologics, and small molecules. Histologic and endoscopic remission and response data were independently extracted and pooled using binomial–normal random-effect or fixed-effect models. Pooled efficacy estimates were calculated as risk ratios (RRs) using the Mantel–Haenszel method. Univariable and multivariable random-effect meta-regression models examined factors associated with histologic remission. RESULTS: Seventy-four studies (68 induction and 7 maintenance) were identified. Topical aminosalicylate enemas [37.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 29.0–46.3] and suppositories (44.9%, 95% CI, 28.9–62.3) had the highest induction of histologic remission rates. Aminosalicylate enemas (RR = 4.14, 95% CI, 2.35–7.31), aminosalicylate suppositories (RR = 3.94, 95% CI, 1.26–12.32), and budesonide multimatrix (RR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.08–1.99) had higher histologic remission rates than placebo. Data were lacking for biologics and immunosuppressives. The pooled histologic remission rate for placebo in induction studies was 10.4% (95% CI, 7.1–15.2). Histologic and endoscopic remission correlated strongly ( r = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.50–0.78). In multivariate analysis of placebo-arm data, less severe clinical disease activity and corticosteroid use were associated with higher histologic remission rates. Similarly, mild clinical disease activity was associated with higher histologic remission rates when active-arm data were analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: Histologic remission rates for current UC treatments ranged from 15.0% to 44.9% according to drug class and patient population with the highest rates observed for topical aminosalicylates. Placebo remission rates were low with relatively narrow CIs. These data provide benchmarks to inform future trial design. Histologic remission is a potential treatment target in clinical practice.

Objective We evaluated the reliability and responsiveness of available but incompletely validated UC histological disease activity indices using standardised rules for centralised assessment. Design Disease activity was assessed in biopsies collected in a phase II placebo-controlled ozanimod trial by four blinded pathologists using the Geboes (GS) and modified Riley (MRS) scores, the Robarts Histopathology (RHI) and Nancy Histological (NHI) indices and a Visual Analogue Scale. Reliability was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Index responsiveness was evaluated by assessing longitudinal validity (Pearson correlations of changes in index scores and other disease measures), and effect size estimates (standardised effect size (SES)) using two criteria for change (treatment assignment and >2 point decrease in total Mayo Clinic score). Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve estimates evaluated the probability of the indices to discriminate between treatment and placebo. Results Inter-rater reliability of the histological indices was substantial to almost perfect (ICC>0.61), and responsiveness was moderate to large (SES estimates>0.5); 0.81 (0.52, 1.10), 0.87 (0.58, 1.17), 0.57 (0.30, 0.84) and 0.81 (0.52, 1.09) when treatment assignment was the criterion for change and 1.05 (0.80, 1.31), 1.13 (0.87, 1.39), 0.88 (0.64, 1.12) and 1.06 (0.80, 1.31) for the change in Mayo score criterion for the GS, MRS, RHI and NHI, respectively. The indices had similar drisciminative ability based on AUROC estimates (range 0.608–0.649). Conclusion All four existing histological indices were similarly reliable and responsive based on this dataset.

Linked contentThis article is linked to Warners et al and Conner and Kirsch papers. To view these articles https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.14559 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.14633.

Summary Background Regulatory requirements for claims of mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis ( UC ) will require demonstration of both endoscopic and histologic healing. Quantifying these rates is essential for future drug development. Aims To meta‐analyse endoscopic and histologic placebo response and remission rates in UC randomised controlled trials ( RCT s) and identify factors influencing these rates. Methods MEDLINE , EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to March 2017 for placebo‐controlled trials of pharmacological interventions for UC . Endoscopic and histologic placebo rates were pooled by random effects. Mixed effects univariable and multivariable meta‐regression was used to evaluate the influence of patient, intervention and trial‐related study‐level covariates on these rates. Results Fifty‐six induction (placebo n = 4171) and 8 maintenance trials (placebo n = 1011) were included. Pooled placebo endoscopic remission and response rates for induction trials were 23% [95 confidence interval ( CI ) 19‐28%] and 35% [95% CI 27‐42%] respectively, and 20% [95% CI 16‐24%] for maintenance of remission. The pooled histologic placebo remission rate was 14% [95% CI 8‐22%] for induction trials. High heterogeneity was observed for all outcomes ( I 2 56.2%‐88.3%). On multivariable meta‐regression, central endoscopy reading was associated with significantly lower endoscopic placebo remission rates (16% vs 25%; OR = 0.52, [95% CI 0.29‐0.92], P = 0.03). On univariable meta‐regression, higher histologic placebo remission was associated with concomitant corticosteroids ( OR = 1.17 [95% CI 1.08‐1.26], P < 0.0001, per 10% increase in corticosteroid use). Conclusions Placebo endoscopic and histologic rates range from 14% to 35% in UC RCT s but are highly heterogeneous. Outcome standardisation may reduce heterogeneity and is needed in this field.