Citations

PURPOSE Most oncology trials define superiority according to dichotomized P value thresholds, which are frequently misinterpreted. Posterior probability, however, directly estimates the probability of the hypothesis at hand. Here, we reanalyze a large collection of modern phase III trials and benchmark posterior probability versus the standard trial interpretation based on statistical significance. METHODS Outcomes from 194,129 patients were manually reconstructed from the primary end points of 230 phase III, superiority-design oncology trials. Posterior probabilities of treatment effect were then calculated across multiple priors and several effect sizes of clinical relevance, including minimum clinically important difference (MCID) defined as hazard ratio (HR) < 0.8 per ASCO criteria or HR < 0.64 per European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) criteria. RESULTS All trials interpreted as superior using P value thresholds had probabilities >90% for achieving at least marginal benefits (HR < 1). However, only 62% of positive trials (74/120) had >90% probabilities of achieving the ASCO MCID (HR < 0.8), even under an enthusiastic prior, including 70% of trials (57/82) leading to regulatory approval. Only 30% of positive trials (36/120) had >90% probability of achieving the ESMO MCID (HR < 0.64). Conversely, 24% of trials (26/110) interpreted as not superior had >90% probability of achieving marginal benefits (HR < 1), even under a skeptical prior. CONCLUSION Bayesian models, although often in agreement with statistical significance thresholds, add considerable unique interpretative value for a subset of phase III oncology trials. Posterior probability may provide a solution for overcoming the discrepancies between refuting the null hypothesis and detecting clinically relevant effects.

ABSTRACT Purpose To validate a custom smartphone application for at‐home visual acuity (VA) measurement in children. Methods A total of 452 children aged 3–17.5 years participated. Certified examiners measured in‐office test–retest VA (logMAR) using gold‐standard Amblyopia Treatment Study HOTV (3‐to‐6‐year‐olds, younger cohort) or electronic Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (7‐to‐17.5‐year‐olds, older cohort) protocols at 3–4.5 m and app‐based VA at 1.5 m. Caregivers measured at‐home app‐based VA at 1.5 m. Results Comparing at‐home app‐based with gold‐standard VA, in eyes 20/40 or better, 95% (143/151) and 93% (91/98) of the younger and older cohorts were within 2 lines, respectively (mean differences: younger = −0.03, older = −0.04; 95% limits‐of‐agreement half‐width (LOA): younger = ±0.26, older = ±0.22). In eyes 20/50 or worse, 66% (42/64) and 75% (76/101) of the younger and older cohorts were within 2 lines, respectively (mean differences: younger = 0.11, older = 0.13, LOA: younger = ±0.50, older = ±0.51). Comparing in‐office app‐based VA with gold‐standard VA, in eyes 20/40 or better, 98% (160/164) and 94% (99/105) of the younger and older cohorts were within 2 lines, respectively (mean differences: younger = −0.03, older = −0.03; LOA: younger = ±0.22; older = ±0.24). In eyes 20/50 or worse, 85% (60/71) and 91% (101/111) of the younger and older cohorts were within 2 lines, respectively (mean differences: younger = 0.04; older = 0.04; LOA: younger = ±0.39; older = ±0.24). For gold‐standard test–retest, in eyes 20/40 or better, 99% (163/164) and 99% (104/105) of the younger and older cohorts had retest within 2 lines, respectively (mean differences: younger = 0.00; older = 0.01; LOA: younger = ±0.17; older = ±0.11). For 20/50 or worse, 92% (66/72) and 100% (111/111) in the younger and older cohorts were within 2 lines, respectively (mean differences: younger = 0.01; older = 0.02; LOA: younger = ±0.35; older = ±0.15). Conclusions Our app demonstrated good concordance with the gold standard at home and in the office for eyes with VA of 20/40 or better. However, concordance decreased considerably for eyes with VA 20/50 or worse, particularly at home.

Abstract Purpose: Circulating tumor fraction estimate (ctFE) is a machine learning–derived composite metric of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) burden. We hypothesized that pre-treatment and early on-treatment ctFE could robustly risk-stratify patients with locally advanced (LA) and oligometastatic non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with radiotherapy (RT). Experimental Design: In a prospective phase II clinical trial (NCT03916419), 26 patients with unresectable stage IIB to IIIC NSCLC received magnetic resonance (MR)-guided hypofractionated chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) followed by immunotherapy. Plasma ctDNA was profiled at baseline and mid-treatment (days 10–14) to derive ctFE and maximum variant allele frequency (Max VAF). A burden-based ctFE threshold derived from baseline samples was applied unchanged to mid-treatment samples and validated in two external cohorts: LA NSCLC treated with chemoRT (LA-RW; n = 94) and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT (OM-RW; n = 309). Results: Pre- and mid-treatment ctFE burden strongly stratified overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), outperforming Max VAF and ctFE detectability. The baseline ctFE was prognostic for OS (HR 5.93, P = 0.005) and PFS (HR 11.08, P &lt; 0.001) and remained significant at mid-treatment (OS: HR 7.08; PFS: HR 12.06; both P &lt; 0.001). Early ctFE dynamics defined three molecular response groups with OS separation (median OS 60.8 vs. 13.0 vs. 2.9 months; P &lt; 0.001). ctFE remained associated with survival in both validation cohorts. Conclusions: Early ctFE derived from a clinically available, tumor-naïve ctDNA assay enables noninvasive risk stratification in LA and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT, supporting its use as a practical biomarker for precision treatment adaptation.

Introduction: Diabetes, a modifiable risk factor for dementia, is thought to impart increased risk of dementia through cerebral small vessel disease. While the importance of diabetes in midlife is well-documented, the influence of different glycemic levels, duration of diabetes, and Alzheimer’s disease genetic risk (apolipoprotein [ APOE ] ε4 genotype) in late-life on dementia risk remains uncertain. This could have implications for individualized prevention strategies. In this study, we investigated whether a higher glycemic level and longer duration of diabetes in late-life is associated with a higher risk of dementia, and whether associations vary by APOE ε4 genotype. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort analysis with the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study using up to 11 years of follow-up (baseline, 2011-2013). We defined diabetes as glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA 1c ) ≥6.5%, self-reported physician diagnosis, or use of any diabetes medication. Among those with diabetes, we categorized participants as having a lower glycemic level (HbA 1c <7%) or higher level (HbA 1c ≥7%), and duration as short (<5 years) or long (≥5 years). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for incident dementia by HbA 1c levels and by diabetes duration in separate multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. We tested for statistical multiplicative interaction on the relative risk of dementia by fitting interaction terms between diabetes measures and APOE ε4 genotype in separate regression models. Results: In 5030 participants without dementia (mean age, 75.4 years; 58.6% female; 21% Black; 28% with diabetes), there were 1167 (23.2%) incident dementia cases over a median follow-up of 9.0 years. Compared to no diabetes, a lower glycemic level and higher level were both associated with elevated dementia risk ( P -trend <.0001; Table). A higher glycemic level was associated with an elevated risk of dementia relative to a lower level (HR=1.47 [95% CI: 1.22-1.77]; Table). Compared to no diabetes, both shorter duration and longer duration were associated with an increase in dementia risk ( P -trend <.0001; Table). Longer duration was associated with an increased risk of dementia relative to shorter duration (HR=1.57 [95% CI: 1.24-1.98]; Table). Associations for glycemic level and diabetes duration did not significantly differ by APOE ε4 genotype (all P >.05). Conclusions: Diabetes management in older adults that includes lower glycemic goals may help reduce dementia risk.

Introduction: Abnormal sleep has been linked to increased dementia risk, but the pathophysiological processes driving this connection are unclear. To provide insight into the biological pathways underlying the relationship between sleep and brain health, we tested the hypothesis that increased obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity and shorter habitual sleep duration are associated with a higher burden of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology, neurodegeneration, and neuroinflammation measured through plasma biomarkers. Methods: ARIC participants who took part in the Sleep Heart Health Study at Visit 4 (1996-98) with stored plasma samples at Visit 3 (1993-95) and Visit 5 (2011-13) were examined (n=261; mean age 61.3 years; 43.3% male). OSA severity, categorized based on the number of apneas and hypopneas per hour of sleep (<5 events/hour [Normal], 5 to <15 events/hour [Mild OSA], or ≥15 events/hour [Moderate/Severe OSA]) was assessed via in-home polysomnography, and average habitual sleep duration (<7 hours, 7 to <8 hours, or ≥8 hours) was self-reported. Plasma biomarkers of amyloid beta (Aβ) 42 and 40, phosphorylated Tau 181 (p-Tau181), neurofilament light chain (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were measured using Quanterix Simoa immunoassays. Covariate-adjusted linear regression models estimated associations of sleep indices in 1996-98 with standardized plasma biomarker measurements in 1993-95 (3 years earlier) and in 2011-13 (15 years later). Covariate-adjusted linear mixed effects models quantified associations of sleep measures with the 5-year rates of change in standardized biomarker levels (1993-2013). Results: Compared to a habitual sleep duration of 8 hours or more, sleeping less than 7 hours per night was associated with higher NfL, a biomarker of neurodegeneration, 15 years later (β = 0.252; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.003, 0.501). Sleep indices were not associated with biomarker levels 3 years earlier. Counter to our hypothesis, Moderate/Severe OSA was associated with slower increases in p-Tau181 (β = -0.102; 95% CI: -0.198, -0.006), a biomarker of AD pathology, over a median of 17.9 years. Conclusions: Short habitual sleep duration may impact dementia outcomes through neurodegenerative and other processes rather than through pathways specific to AD pathology or neuroinflammation. Longitudinal studies with sleep measurements in larger, more diverse samples are needed to further distinguish the pathways linking sleep to dementia.

ABSTRACT Bispecific T cell engagers (BTEs) induce MHC‐independent cytotoxicity by bridging T cells to tumor cells via binding a T cell–activating receptor and a tumor‐associated antigen. BTEs have proven effective in hematologic malignancies and some solid tumors, yet their potential in glioblastoma (GBM) is largely unexplored. We developed a fully humanized BTE (hBTE) targeting interleukin‐13 receptor alpha 2 (IL13RA2), a tumor‐associated antigen widely expressed in GBM and associated with poor prognosis. In vitro, hBTE activated T cells and induced antigen‐dependent cytokine release and cytotoxicity against IL13RA2‐positive GBM cells. In vivo, hBTE showed robust target‐specific activity and markedly prolonged survival in primary and recurrent GBM xenograft models, without detectable off‐target local or systemic toxicity. Beyond GBM, hBTE also exhibited antitumor activity in IL13RA2‐expressing solid tumors, demonstrating selective tumor accumulation and therapeutic efficacy in models of breast cancer brain metastases and extracranial lung cancer. This work highlights the therapeutic potential of BTEs in IL13RA2‐expressing tumors and establishes a strong preclinical rationale for advancing hBTE therapy toward clinical translation in GBM and other tumors.

ABSTRACT Although Doxorubicin (Dox) is an effective anticancer drug, it can cause severe cardiotoxicity. While several mechanisms have been proposed to explain Dox‐induced cardiomyopathy (DIC), strategies to prevent it remain limited. In previous research on isolated cardiomyocytes, we identified that Empagliflozin (EMPA), an antidiabetic drug, mitigated Dox‐induced ER stress and apoptosis. In this in vivo study using rats, we further investigated EMPA's potential in preventing and treating DIC. Rats administered a cumulative dose of 15 mg/kg Dox exhibited significant cardiovascular damage, including left ventricular cavity dilation, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), ER dilation, mitochondrial defects and vacuole formation. These structural changes were linked to the activation of ER‐stress pathways (PERK, IRE1 and ATF6) and upregulation of apoptotic proteins initiated by ER stress. When EMPA (10 mg/kg/day) was administered either prophylactically or concurrently with Dox, it significantly attenuated adverse LV remodelling and preserved LVEF. Additionally, EMPA prevented ER stress and subsequent apoptosis in the myocardium of the Dox + EMPA‐treated group. These findings suggest that EMPA offers cardioprotective benefits in DIC, likely through the inhibition of ER‐stress‐induced myocardial injury.

Vitamin D deficiency is frequently reported in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), but its clinical significance remains unclear. In a retrospective cohort of 503 patients, deficiency was common and associated with demographic and metabolic factors but not with treatment-defined severity. Vitamin D deficiency was independently associated with elevated C-reactive protein, suggesting a link with systemic inflammation.

Background: Given the faster onset and shorter duration of action of ultra-rapid insulin lispro-aabc (URLi, Lyumjev™ insulin), compared with insulin lispro (a rapid-acting insulin [RAI]), the present study investigated the safety and glycemic outcomes of MiniMed™ 780G advanced hybrid closed-loop (AHCL) use with URLi in youths and adults with T1D. Methods: This 19-site, single-arm, clinical trial enrolled children and adolescents (aged 7–17 years) and adults (aged 18–80 years) with T1D who underwent a run-in period (∼2 weeks) using open loop or automated basal only with an RAI (aspart or lispro), followed by a 3-month study period using URLi with AHCL (AHCL + URLi). End-of-study glycemic metrics and A1c were compared to predefined thresholds and to data from baseline/run-in. Use of recommended optimal settings (ROS, 100 mg/dL glucose target with an active insulin time [AIT] of 2 h) was also assessed. Results: In an intention-to-treat population ( N = 101 pediatric and N = 110 adult participants), percentage of time in range (%TIR) during the last ∼6 weeks of the study period was significantly greater than the predefined thresholds for both the pediatric and adult participants. A1c was unchanged in the pediatric cohort but significantly reduced in the adult cohort (from 7.4 ± 0.9% to 6.9 ± 0.6% [ P < 0.001]). Compared with run-in, study period %TIR and percentage of time in tight target range (%TITR) were significantly increased (pediatric mean %TIRΔ [17.4%] and %TITRΔ [16.0%], respectively, and adult mean %TIRΔ [10.6%] and %TITRΔ [11.6%], respectively; P < 0.001 for all). Additionally, % time above range for both groups was significantly reduced. Use of ROS allowed more participants to achieve recommended glycemic targets. There were no severe hypoglycemia or diabetic ketoacidosis events. Most caregivers agreed that mealtime versus premeal URLi delivery simplified pediatric meal management. Conclusions: Similar to previous studies investigating automated URLi delivery, URLi use in the MiniMed™ 780G system was safe, and glycemic outcomes were favorable for pediatric and adult participants.