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Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

656 Background: Patients (pts) with peritoneal metastases from CRC (pmCRC) have reduced OS compared to mCRC pts without peritoneal involvement. Here we further investigated the impact of number and location of metastases among pts receiving first-line systemic chemotherapy. Methods: Individual patient data were available on 9,265 pts (median age 64; 63% male; 93% ECOG PS 0-1; 68% colon primary tumor; brain metastases excluded) enrolled onto 12 first-line randomized trials (4 tested targeted regimens). Stratified multivariable Cox models were used to assess the associations with overall survival (OS); adjusted hazard ratios (HRadj) and 95% confidence intervals are reported (CI). Results: There were 7,963 (86%) pts with non-pmCRC (3,904 with one disease site; 4,059 with ≥2 disease sites), 191 (2%) pts with isolated pmCRC, and 1,111 (12%) non-isolated pmCRC. These groups were similar in age, race, and use of targeted chemotherapy. Compared to non-pmCRC, pts with pmCRC were more likely to be female (41% vs. 36%, p<.001), have colon primary tumors (85% vs. 67%, p<.0001), and have PS2 (10% vs. 6%, p<.0001). Compared to isolated pmCRC, pts with solitary non-peritoneal sites (both M1a) had significantly better OS (HRadj=0.78; CI, 0.64-0.94, p=.009) while pts with ≥2 non-peritoneal sites had similar OS (HRadj=1.06; CI 0.88-1.28, p=.535). OS of pts with pmCRC with a single other disease site (n=446) was similar to isolated pmCRC (HRadj=1.13; CI 0.91-1.40, p=.28), but those with pmCRC + ≥2 additional disease sites (n=665) had shortest survival (HRadj=1.44; CI 1.17-1.77, p<.001). A combination of peritoneal and liver metastases (n=821; HRadj=1.37, CI 1.12-1.67, p=.002) was associated with poorer survival compared with isolated pmCRC; but combination with extrahepatic sites (n=290; HRadj=1.15, CI 0.91-1.45, p=.25) was not. Conclusions: pmCRC pts have significantly worse survival than those with other solitary site mCRC. Among those with multiple disease sites, poorer survival is a function of increased number of metastatic sites and peritoneal involvement, which indicates prognostic heterogeneities among M1b pts.

Purpose Factors associated with early mortality after surgery and treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer are poorly understood. We aimed to characterize the determinants of early mortality in a large cohort of colon cancer trial participants. Methods A pooled analysis of 37,568 patients in 25 randomized trials of adjuvant systemic therapy was conducted. Multivariable logistic regression models with several definitions of early mortality (30, 60, and 90 days, and 6 months) were constructed, adjusting for clinically and statistically significant variables. A nomogram for 6-month mortality was developed and validated. Results Median age among patients was 61 years, patient demographics included 54% men and 90% White, 29% and 71% had stage II and III disease, respectively, and 79%, 20%, and 1% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS) of 0, 1, and ≥ 2, respectively. Early mortality was low: 0.3% at 30 days, 0.6% at 60 days, 0.8% at 90 days, and 1.4% at 6 months. Of those patients who died by 6 months post–random assignment, 40% had documented disease recurrence prior to death. Early disease recurrence was associated with a markedly increased risk of death during the first 6 months post-treatment (hazard ratio, 82.6; 95%CI, 66.9 to 102.1). In prognostic analyses, advanced age, male sex, poorer PS, increasing ratio of positive to examined lymph nodes, earlier decade of enrollment, and higher tumor stage and grade predicted a greater likelihood of early mortality, whereas treatment received was not strongly predictive. A multivariable model for 6-month mortality showed strong optimism-adjusted discrimination (concordance index, 0.73) and calibration. Conclusion Early mortality was infrequent but more prevalent in patients with advanced age and a PS of ≥ 2, underscoring the need to carefully consider the risk-to-benefit ratio when making treatment decisions in these subgroups.

Purpose Fluorouracil plus leucovorin (FU + LV) adjuvant chemotherapy reduced the risk of recurrence and death across all time points in a pooled analysis of 20,898 patients with colon cancer from 18 randomized studies. The impact of oxaliplatin added to FU + LV on the time course of recurrence and survival remains unknown. Patients and Methods A total of 12,233 patients enrolled to the randomized trials C-07, C-08, N0147, MOSAIC (Adjuvant Treatment of Colon Cancer), and XELOXA (Adjuvant XELOX) were pooled to examine the impact of oxaliplatin and tumor-specific factors on the time course of recurrence and death. For each end point, continuous-time risk was modeled over 6 years post treatment in all oxaliplatin-treated patients and patients concurrently randomized to FU + LV with or without oxaliplatin; the latter analyses supported time-dependent treatment comparisons. Results Addition of oxaliplatin significantly reduced the risk of recurrence within the first 14 months post treatment for patients with stage II disease and within the first 4 years for patients with stage III disease. Oxaliplatin also significantly reduced risk of death from 2 to 6 years post treatment for patients with stage III disease, with no differences in timing of outcomes between treatment groups (ie, oxaliplatin did not simply postpone recurrence or death compared with FU + LV alone). Patients with stage II disease receiving oxaliplatin did not exhibit a significant reduction in risk of death in the first 6 years post treatment. Recurrence risk peaked near 14 months for both treatments, and risk of recurrence and death increased with increased tumor and nodal burden. Conclusions These analyses support the addition of oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidine-based adjuvant therapy in patients with stage III disease and underscore the need for adequate surveillance of patients with colon cancer during the first 3 years after adjuvant therapy.

Purpose In recent retrospective analyses of early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC), low and high body mass index (BMI) scores were associated with worsened outcomes. Whether BMI is a prognostic or predictive factor in metastatic CRC (mCRC) is unclear. Patients and Methods Individual data from 21,149 patients enrolled onto 25 first-line mCRC trials during 1997 to 2012 were pooled. We assessed both prognostic and predictive effects of BMI on overall survival and progression-free survival, and we accounted for patient and tumor characteristics and therapy type (targeted v nontargeted). Results BMI was prognostic for overall survival (P < .001) and progression-free survival (P < .001), with an L-shaped pattern. That is, risk of progression and/or death was greatest for low BMI; risk decreased as BMI increased to approximately 28 kg/m 2 , and then it plateaued. Relative to obese patients, patients with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m 2 had a 27% increased risk of having a PFS event (95% CI, 20% to 34%) and a 50% increased risk of death (95% CI, 43% to 56%). Low BMI was associated with poorer survival for men than women (interaction P < .001). BMI was not predictive of treatment effect. Conclusion Low BMI is associated with an increased risk of progression and death among the patients enrolled on the mCRC trials, with no increased risk for elevated BMI, in contrast to the adjuvant setting. Possible explanations include negative effects related to cancer cachexia in patients with low BMI, increased drug delivery or selection bias in patients with high BMI, and potential for an interaction between BMI and molecular signaling pathways.

PurposeProgression-free survival (PFS) has previously been established as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) for first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Because mCRC treatment has advanced in the last decade with extended OS, this surrogacy requires re-examination.MethodsIndividual patient data from 16,762 patients were available from 22 first-line mCRC studies conducted from 1997 to 2006; 12 of those studies tested antiangiogenic and/or anti–epidermal growth factor receptor agents. The relationship between PFS (first event of progression or death) and OS was evaluated by using R2statistics (the closer the value is to 1, the stronger the correlation) from weighted least squares regression of trial-specific hazard ratios estimated by using Cox and Copula models.ResultsForty-four percent of patients received a regimen that included biologic agents. Median first-line PFS was 8.3 months, and median OS was 18.2 months. The correlation between PFS and OS was modest (R2, 0.45 to 0.69). Analyses limited to trials that tested treatments with biologic agents, nonstrategy trials, or superiority trials did not improve surrogacy.ConclusionIn modern mCRC trials, in which survival after the first progression exceeds time to first progression, a positive but modest correlation was observed between OS and PFS at both the patient and trial levels. This finding demonstrates the substantial variability in OS introduced by the number of lines of therapy and types of effective subsequent treatments and the associated challenge to the use of OS as an end point to assess the benefit attributable to a single line of therapy. PFS remains an appropriate primary end point for first-line mCRC trials to detect the direct treatment effect of new agents.

PurposeProgression-free survival (PFS) is not an optimal end point to evaluate therapeutic strategies in advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC). Therefore, composite end points have been proposed to evaluate a chemotherapy strategy when sequential treatments are available: duration of disease control (DDC) and time to failure of strategy (TFS). The goal of this study was to evaluate these alternative end points and their potential surrogacy for overall survival (OS).MethodsWe pooled individual patient data from three randomized trials evaluating chemotherapy strategy, which accrued 1,042 patients with previously untreated ACRC. In these trials, first-line treatment was either oxaliplatin- or irinotecan-based chemotherapy. Compared with TFS, DDC included neither time interval between progression and next sequence of treatment nor time to progression if the best result of the next sequence of treatment was progression.ResultsThere was good correlation between DDC and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.62; correlation of hazard ratio [HR]: adjusted copula R2, 0.72) and between TFS and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.59; correlation of HR: adjusted copula R2, 0.67). There was no correlation between PFS and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.45; correlation of HR: adjusted copula R2, 0.47).ConclusionDDC and TFS roughly achieved the same results. Both are acceptable new end points to evaluate a therapeutic strategy in ACRC. Although TFS achieved a pragmatic evaluation of a multiline strategy, DDC captured the effect of a specific sequence in a therapeutic strategy.