André, Thierry

Abstract Background Synthetic control arms (SCAs) derived from historical trial data can complement randomized controlled trials (RCTs), particularly in oncology where feasibility, ethical, and cost constraints may limit conventional trial designs. However, their validity for overall survival (OS) remains uncertain. We evaluated the feasibility and limitations of constructing SCAs from the ARCAD metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) database across multiple treatment lines. Methods Seven landmark RCTs representing first-, second-, and third-line settings were selected. External control arms were constructed from ARCAD individual patient-level data using propensity score matching based on key clinical and biological variables from a validated ARCAD prognostic score, with adjustment for geographic region and time era when needed. A prespecified two-step benchmarking framework assessed: (1) control-arm OS reproducibility and (2) virtual trial comparisons between matched synthetic controls and original RCT experimental arms. Agreement was evaluated using hazard ratios (HRs) and Z-tests. Results A total of 28,022 patients met the inclusion criteria. ARCAD-derived SCAs were successfully constructed for all selected RCTs and closely reproduced control-arm OS. After matching, baseline characteristics were well balanced, with minimal differences between included and excluded patients. Virtual trials showed concordant treatment-effect estimates with the original RCTs, with a median absolute HR deviation of 0.05 and no significant differences by Z-tests (P>.05). Survival outcomes were consistently reproduced across treatment lines. Conclusion ARCAD-derived SCAs reliably reproduced control-arm OS and benchmark treatment-effect estimates from landmark RCTs in mCRC. Despite limitations related to residual confounding and missing data, this framework supports benchmarking, trial design, and exploratory analyses when conventional control arms are impractical.

e15557 Background: In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), systemic chemotherapy can enable conversion surgery in a subset of patients with initially unresectable disease. Although R0 resection considered a key determinant of long-term survival, its clinical impact across heterogeneous trial populations and treatment strategies remains insufficiently defined. We aimed to clarify the survival benefit of R0 resection after first-line chemotherapy using large-scale individual patient data. Methods: Using the ARCAD database, which comprises 67 randomized clinical trials and approximately 47,000 patients, we conducted a pooled analysis of individual patient data from six first-line randomized clinical trials (COIN, COIN-B, 03-TTD-01, ATOM, SOFT and PARADIGM) for which data on R0 resection were available. Patients with initially unresectable mCRC and available surgical data were categorized into three groups: R0 resection, non-R0 resection, and no surgery. All R0 cases were included, comprising liver-only, lung-only, combined liver and lung metastases, and peritoneal dissemination or other metastatic sites. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and performance status. Pre-specified subgroup analyses examined the consistency of outcomes according to tumor response, metastatic site, primary tumor sidedness, RAS status, and targeted therapy class. Results: Among 4,445 eligible patients, 263 underwent R0 , 233 underwent non-R0 resection, and 3,949 received no surgical intervention. The R0 resection group comprised patients with liver-only metastases (n = 176), lung-only metastases (n = 23), and combined liver and lung metastases (n = 27). R0 resection was associated with significantly improved OS and PFS compared with both non-R0 resection and no surgery. These survival benefits were consistently observed across key clinical subgroups, including patients achieving complete or partial response to chemotherapy, those with liver or lung metastases, left- and right-sided primary tumors, and both RAS wild-type and mutant disease. Importantly, the benefit of R0 resection was maintained irrespective of anti-EGFR– or anti-VEGF–based first-line therapy. Conclusions: R0 resection following systemic chemotherapy is strongly associated with durable survival benefits in patients with initially unresectable mCRC across diverse clinical settings. These findings support the pivotal role of conversion strategies and highlight the importance of multidisciplinary evaluation to identify appropriate candidates for curative-intent resection.

Abstract Purpose: Routine testing for mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR)/microsatellite instability (MSI) in colorectal cancers is recommended for Lynch syndrome screening, prognosis, and treatment guidance. In the metastatic setting, RAS/BRAF mutations guide treatment decisions. The impact of these mutations on the tumor immune microenvironment (TiME) in MSI/dMMR colorectal cancer is not known. Experimental Design: The study involved retrospective analysis of 448 patients with stage I to IV MSI/dMMR colorectal cancer profiled using next-generation sequencing (Tempus xT DNA sequencing of 595–648 genes at 500x coverage and Tempus xR whole-exome capture RNA sequencing). MSI status was determined by assessing 44 or 239 loci using next-generation sequencing. dMMR was determined using IHC. Tumor mutational burden, tumor neoantigen burden (NTB), PD-L1, immune infiltration, and canonical immune pathways (76 gene set signatures) were analyzed. Results: The median age at diagnosis was 67 years (range, 21–86); 59% of patients were female, and 70% were stage III to IV. Among the 448 patients, 100 (22%) harbored RAS mutations (RASmut), 119 (27%) a BRAFV600E mutation, and 229 (51%) were double wild type. RASmut exhibited lower NTB (median, 12 vs. 15 vs. 16; P = 0.003) and PD-L1 (3.6% vs. 13% vs. 24%; P < 0.001) than BRAFV600E and wild-type tumors, respectively. The RASmut TiME had lower overall inflammation and fewer infiltrating CD8+ T cells than wild-type or BRAFV600E tumors. In contrast, BRAFV600E tumors exhibited hyperproliferative characteristics associated with broad metabolic reprogramming but a similarly inflamed TiME compared with wild-type tumors. Conclusions: Our data suggest that MSI/dMMR colorectal cancers harboring RASmut are less immunogenic, and the TiME contains a lower inflammatory profile than wild-type or BRAFV600E tumors. Further analysis and validation are required to confirm these findings.

Importance The definition of cure in stage II to III colon cancer (CC) remains unclear due to limitations in conventional end points, which include deaths and second primary tumors as events. These can complicate communication with patients regarding long-term outcomes. Objective To distinguish relapses from competing health-related events to classify long-term outcomes years after surgery and explore when the incidence of true relapses of the initial CC approaches 0% to define cure in this disease. Design, Setting, and Participants This pooled analysis of individual patient–level data from 15 phase 3 randomized clinical trials assessed time to CC-related relapse using Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen methods, with death and second primary tumors treated as competing risks. Cox regression models evaluated prognostic associations, stratified by sex, stage, and tumor. Patients with stage II to III CC who underwent adjuvant chemotherapy were included. All patients had undergone radical surgery for CC and received adjuvant chemotherapy with a median follow-up of at least 6 years. The Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) and the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy (IDEA) databases included adjuvant studies conducted between 1996 and 2015. Data were analyzed from February 2022 to June 2025. Exposures Adjuvant chemotherapy regimens varied across trials, including fluoropyrimidines alone or in combination with oxaliplatin or biologic agents. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was time to CC-related recurrence. The predefined threshold for cure was a recurrence risk below 0.5%. Results Of 35 213 included patients, 19 346 (54.9%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 60.2 (10.8) years. The incidence rate of recurrence peaked at 6.4% (1993 of 31 373) between month 6 and month 12 and decreased continuously until year 10 of follow-up never exceeding 0.5%. Recurrence rate appeared to increase again after year 10 and peaked at 2.0% during year 12.5 to year 13, a pattern observed exclusively in the MOSAIC trial. Competing-event analysis revealed that death and second primary tumors inflated the apparent recurrence rate, especially for older patients. The overall cumulative incidence of relapse with death as competing risk was lower among female patients (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.76; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this pooled analysis of phase 3 randomized clinical trials, a recurrence rate less than 0.5% occurred after 6 years from surgery, supporting a practical definition of cure. Recognizing this milestone may improve patient communication, guide follow-up duration, and reduce unnecessary long-term surveillance.

3520 Background: Recent analyses highlight nonhierarchical outcomes using the 8 th Edition AJCC staging system for CC. For instance, the 5-year survival rate for stages I and IIIa patients (pts) closely align. Additionally, tumor deposits (TDs) have been established as significant prognostic indicators. The AJCCCCEP commissioned this study to develop an updated pathological staging system for CC focused specifically on pts without distant metastasis (M0), while retaining the existing stage IV classification. Methods: Individual patient data (IPD) from pts diagnosed with cc (2010- 2017) in the NCDB were divided into training (70%) and internal validation (30%) datasets. External validation used IPD from clinical trials. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Risk classification development for M0 pts incorporated ungrouped data on pathologic T categories, the number of involved regional lymph nodes (LN+), and TD counts. Recursive partitioning and regression tree analyses were applied to construct hierarchical staging levels. Pre-specified criteria required survival probabilities to be consecutive and show clear separations using Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates with pairwise log-rank test P of < 0.005 for the training and < 0.05 for validation analyses. Results: Data from 281,997 pts (median age 67 years, 50% male, 81% white, 55% T3, 19% T4, 44% N+, 26% M+, and 11% with ≥1 TD) were analyzed, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years. The updated staging system (Table) met pre-specified criteria, with all observed pairwise P < 0.0001 in the development and internal validation sets. KM OS curves displayed a hierarchical separation across all sub-levels after the 1 st year of diagnosis. Consistent results were seen in pts treated with adjuvant chemotherapy in 4 trials (all pair-wise P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The proposed pathological staging system for M0 pts fulfills pre-specified criteria for hierarchical risk stratification, validated both internally and externally, and provides an evidence-based update. Pending review process, the AJCCCCEP will recommend that these changes be made to the Version 9 staging protocol for colon cancer to improve prognostication for CC pts. Stage T, # of LN+, # of TD M % of pts 1y OS (CI), % 3y OS (CI), % 5y OS (CI), % I T1, 0, 0 0 5 96 (95-97) 91 (90-92) 84 (83-86) IIa T2, 0, 0 0 10 95 (94-95) 88 (88-89) 80 (79-81) IIb T1, 0, 1+T1, 1+, 0T2, 0, 1+T2, 1-4, 0T3, 0, 0 0 27 93 (92-93) 84 (84-85) 75 (75-76) IIIa T1, 1+, 1+T2, 1-4, 1+T2, 5+, 0T3, 0, 1+T3, 1-4, 0 0 14 92 (91-92) 80 (80-81) 71 (70-72) IIIb T2, 5+, 1+T3, 1-4, 1+T3, 5+, 0T4a, 0-4, 0T4b, 0-2, 0 0 13 86 (86-87) 69 (68-70) 58 (57-59) IIIc T3, 5+, 1+T4a, 0-4, 1+T4a, 5+, anyT4b, 0-2, 1+T4b, 3+, any 0 5 78 (77-80) 53 (51-54) 40 (38-41) IVa Any 1a 19 59 (58-60) 28 (28-29) 17 (16-18) IVb Any 1b 7 43 (42-44) 14 (13-14) 6 (6-7) CI: 95% confidence internal; Peritoneum involvement data were not available before 2018 in NCDB. Thus, IVa/b were based on 7 th Edition.

PURPOSE Several lines of treatment can be used sequentially in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. We investigated the evolution of patient/tumor characteristics and their prognostic impact across treatment lines to develop an overall prognostic score (OPS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 48 randomized trials were analyzed. The end point was overall survival (from random assignment to death). Missing data were imputed. The complete data set was then separated into construction (80%) and validation sets (20%). The Cox's model was used to define risk groups for survival using the OPS. The discrimination capability was assessed in each treatment-line via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices. Internal validation was done in the validation set. RESULTS A total of 37,560 patients (26,974 in first-line [1L], 7,693 in second-line [2L], and 2,893 in third-line [3L]) were analyzed. Some clinical, biological, and molecular characteristics of patients/tumors included in therapeutic trials evolve over the lines. Seven independent prognostic variables were retained in the final multivariate model common to all lines: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, platelet count, WBC/absolute neutrophil count ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and the number of metastatic sites. The OPS was used to define four patient subgroups with significantly different prognoses in 1L, 2L, and 3L, separately, with adequate C-indices: 0.65, 0.66, and 0.69 in the construction set and 0.65, 0.66, and 0.68 in the validation set, respectively. The OPS was not predictive, with 3L drugs ( v placebo) or subsequent line (2L/1L or 3L/2L) extending survival in all prognostic groups. CONCLUSION The same prognostic model using practical variables can be used before all treatment lines. The OPS could better stratify patients in future clinical trials and help to therapeutic decision in routine practice.

Abstract Background Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response have emerged as potential prognostic indicators in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). However, their associations with overall survival, progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival in patients receiving anti–epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies or bevacizumab remain unclear. Methods We analyzed 3219 treatment-naive patients with RAS wild-type metastatic CRC from 8 randomized studies (CRYSTAL, OPUS, PRIME, CAIRO2, CALGB80405, WJOG4407G, ATOM, PARADIGM) in the Aid and Research in Digestive Cancerology database. Early tumor shrinkage was defined as a 20% or more reduction in tumor size at 8 ± 2 weeks, whereas depth of response was assessed by maximum tumor shrinkage at nadir. Cox regression models evaluated the associations of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response with overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival, adjusting for confounders. A 2-sided test was conducted with a significance level of .05. Results Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response substantially stratified overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival outcomes across all treatment groups. Early tumor shrinkage positivity was associated with improved overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival in anti-EGFR and bevacizumab-based therapies, with a trend toward better outcomes in the anti-EGFR group. The depth of response analysis revealed optimal cutoff values of 0.55 for anti-EGFR–based therapy and 0.47 for bevacizumab-based therapy to achieve a median overall survival of approximately 32 months. Conclusions Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response serve as valuable prognostic markers in RAS wild-type metastatic CRC, particularly for patients treated with anti-EGFR antibodies. These findings highlight the potential role of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in guiding treatment strategies and improving outcomes for patients with CRC.

PURPOSE The adjuvant treatment for stage III colon cancer (CC) is chemotherapy combining fluoropyrimidine (FP) and oxaliplatin (OX). FP regimen plus OX (FPOX) may benefit in high-risk stage II CC. We performed a pooled analysis of pivotal MOSAIC and C-07 studies evaluating FPOX for the treatment of high-risk stage II CC according to prognostic factors, number of high-risk factors, and current clinicopathologic risk classification on the basis of T stage, tumor perforation, and number of lymph nodes examined. PATIENTS AND METHODS One thousand five hundred and ninety-five patients with stage II CC receiving FP or FPOX were pooled. The overall survival (OS) benefit of OX was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and unadjusted Cox models stratified by study. Three thousand and fifty-nine patients with stage III CC were used only for interaction tests between the allocated chemotherapy and stage. RESULTS In the pooled analysis of stage II patients, independent prognostic factors in multivariable analysis were sex, age, perforation/obstruction, and tumor sidedness. There was a significant interaction in OS between stage and allocated chemotherapy with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.03 for stage II (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.29; P = .813) and 0.82 for stage III (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.92; P = .001; P int = .073). There was no benefit from the addition of OX to FP for any of the prognostic factors. The number of high-risk factors tested was not predictive of OX benefit. According to the currently agreed clinicopathologic risk classification, no OS benefit of OX was observed, as HR was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.63 to 1.18; P = .349). CONCLUSION No OS benefit of adjuvant OX was found in high-risk stage II CC, regardless of the definition used to characterize tumors as having a high risk for recurrence. Hence, our analysis suggests that OX should not be the standard of care for adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II CC, even in high-risk patients.

3509 Background: HER2 overexpression/amplification (HER2+) occurs in ~3%-5% of pts with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and up to ~10% of pts with RAS/BRAF wild-type (WT) mCRC. The primary results of the MOUNTAINEER study (NCT03043313) demonstrated that the combination of tucatinib (TUC), a highly selective HER2-directed TKI, and trastuzumab (Tras) was well tolerated with clinically meaningful activity in pts with chemo-refractory HER2+ mCRC. Confirmed ORR was 38.1%, median DOR was 12.4 months, and median OS was 24.1 months. Here, we present results from the final analysis of MOUNTAINEER. Methods: MOUNTAINEER is a multi-center, open-label, randomized, phase 2 trial. Eligible pts had HER2+ and RAS WT mCRC with progression on or intolerance to last systemic therapy. Previous HER2-directed therapies were not permitted. The trial consisted of Cohort A, comprising pts treated with TUC (300 mg PO BID) + Tras (8 mg/kg IV then 6 mg/kg IV Q3W), as well as pts randomized 4:3 to receive TUC+Tras (Cohort B) or TUC monotherapy (Cohort C). Pts randomized to Cohort C were allowed to crossover and receive TUC+Tras on radiographic progression or if they did not achieve a complete or partial response by Week 12. Study endpoints evaluated at final analysis include DOR per BICR, PFS per BICR, OS, and safety. Results: The median duration of follow-up was 32.4 months (IQR, 25.1-46.7), with an additional 16.1 months of follow-up since the primary analysis (data cutoff, 02-Nov-2023). A total of 116 pts received at least 1 dose of study treatment (Cohorts A+B, N = 86; Cohort C, N = 30). In Cohorts A+B, median DOR per BICR was 15.2 months (95% CI, 8.9-20.5), median PFS per BICR was 8.1 months (95% CI, 4.2-10.2), and median OS was 23.9 months (95% CI, 18.7-28.3). In Cohort C post-crossover (N = 28), median DOR was not reached (95% CI, 2.8 months-NE). Median OS in Cohort C was 21.1 months (95% CI, 17.0-NE). The most common TEAEs in Cohorts A+B were diarrhea (66.3%), fatigue (44.2%), and nausea (34.9%). The majority of TEAEs were low grade, and rates were stable with longer follow-up. The most common grade ≥3 TEAE was hypertension (7.0%). TEAEs leading to TUC discontinuation in Cohorts A+B occurred in 5.8% of pts, which was unchanged from the primary analysis. In Cohort C, the most common TEAEs post-crossover were diarrhea (39.3%), back pain (21.4%), and pyrexia (21.4%); the most common grade ≥3 TEAE was AST increase (10.7%). No deaths resulted from TEAEs in any cohort and no new safety signals were identified. Conclusions: TUC+Tras continued to be well tolerated with sustained efficacy in pts with chemo-refractory RAS WT HER2+ mCRC, demonstrating clinically meaningful activity of the combination on longer follow-up. TUC+Tras is an important chemotherapy-free treatment option in HER2+ mCRC. TUC+Tras is being further evaluated in the first-line setting in combination with chemotherapy in the ongoing phase 3 MOUNTAINEER-03 trial (NCT05253651) for pts with HER2+ mCRC. Clinical trial information: NCT03043313 .