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Background Gastrointestinal cancers comprise nearly one-third of global mortality from cancer, yet the comprehensive global burden of these cancers remains uninvestigated. Objective We aimed to assess the global, regional and national burden of gastrointestinal cancers. Designs Data on oesophagus, gastric, colorectal, liver, pancreas and biliary tract cancers were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised death rate (ASDR) were calculated by sex, region and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Results In 2021, there were 5.26 million incidences and 3.70 million deaths from gastrointestinal cancer. The greatest burden is from colorectal, followed by gastric, oesophageal, pancreatic, liver and biliary tract cancer. We noted geographical and socioeconomic differences in ASIR and ASDR across all types of cancers. From 2000 to 2021, ASIR increased for colorectal cancer (annual percent change (APC): 0.10%, 95% CI 0.05% to 0.14%), pancreatic cancer (APC: 0.27%, 95% CI 0.14% to 0.41%), and liver cancer from metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (APC: 0.62%, 95% CI 0.58% to 0.67%) and alcohol-related liver disease (APC: 0.26%, 95% CI 0.22% to 0.30%). ASDR increased for pancreatic cancer (APC: 0.18%, 95% CI 0.02% to 0.34%). Higher SDI countries had higher incidence rates for most types of gastrointestinal cancer. Conclusions Although the ASIR of oesophageal, gastric and biliary tract cancer has decreased, the ASIR still increased in colorectal, pancreatic and liver cancer from steatotic liver disease. Public policies are important for controlling gastrointestinal cancers—most importantly, reducing alcohol consumption, hepatitis B immunisation and tackling the burden of metabolic diseases.

Biliary tract cancers, including cholangiocarcinoma, gallbladder, and ampulla of Vater cancers, rank second among hepatobiliary cancers, known for their poor prognoses. The United States has witnessed a notable increase in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma incidence. This study examines the incidence and survival outcomes of biliary tract cancers in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1976 to 2018. Using data from the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), residents aged 20 and above were analyzed across four eras. Incidence rates were calculated and adjusted for age and sex, and temporal trends were assessed using Poisson regression. Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma exhibited a significant escalation in incidence rates over time, while gallbladder cancers showed a decline among women. Median survival times for biliary tract cancers notably improved. These findings confirm the rising incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and suggest improving survival rates. Nevertheless, the overall prognosis for biliary tract cancers remains very poor, emphasizing the continual need for enhanced management strategies and further research.

ObjectivesThere have been significant advances in the management of large (≥20 mm) laterally spreading tumors (LSTs) or nonpedunculated colorectal polyps; however, there is a lack of clear consensus on the management of these lesions with significant geographic variability especially between Eastern and Western paradigms. We aimed to provide an international consensus to better guide management and attempt to homogenize practices.MethodsTwo experts in interventional endoscopy spearheaded an evidence‐based Delphi study on behalf of the World Endoscopy Organization Colorectal Cancer Screening Committee. A steering committee comprising six members devised 51 statements, and 43 experts from 18 countries on six continents participated in a three‐round voting process. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations tool was used to assess evidence quality and recommendation strength. Consensus was defined as ≥80% agreement (strongly agree or agree) on a 5‐point Likert scale.ResultsForty‐two statements reached consensus after three rounds of voting. Recommendations included: three statements on training and competency; 10 statements on preresection evaluation, including optical diagnosis, classification, and staging of LSTs; 14 statements on endoscopic resection indications and technique, including statements on en bloc and piecemeal resection decision‐making; seven statements on postresection evaluation; and eight statements on postresection care.ConclusionsAn international expert consensus based on the current available evidence has been developed to guide the evaluation, resection, and follow‐up of LSTs. This may provide guiding principles for the global management of these lesions and standardize current practices.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with cancer, including gastrointestinal (GI). Data from low (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (MICs) are limited. METHODS: We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to determine the mortality from GI cancer risk of high body mass index (BMI) in these countries. RESULTS: Mortality rates of GI cancers from high BMI increased in LICs and lower MICs, while burdens decreased or remained stable in high and middle-income countries. DISCUSSION: The GI cancer-related burden from high BMI increased in LICs and lower MICs, necessitating a concerted effort to tackle the obesity pandemic.

Abstract Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, HCC is the second most common cancer in men and the sixth in women. African patients present with HCC at a young age and at advanced stage of disease. Improved surveillance can increase early HCC detection. The GALAD score has good sensitivity in the diagnosis of HCC in Asia, Europe and North America, however, it has not been validated in an African cohort. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the GALAD score in the diagnosis of HCC in Ghanaian patients. Methods: Clinical data from patients with cirrhosis (n=93) or HCC (n=78) from out-patient hepatology clinics at 3 teaching hospitals in Ghana were abstracted, and serum samples analyzed. A logistic regression model predicting HCC status based on GALAD score was constructed to obtain the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve for GALAD. The area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval was calculated and used to assess the performance of the GALAD score in surveillance for HCC. Results: The median AFP (5010.2 vs. 3.4), L3% (28.3 vs. 0.3) and DCP (507.6 vs. 0.2) levels were all significantly higher among HCC cases than the controls (p<0.0001). The median GALAD score was also higher among HCC patients (8.0 vs. -4.1, p<0.0001). The AUC of the GALAD score in the diagnosis of HCC was 0.86 (95% CI 0.79 - 0.92). At a cut-off value of -0.37, the GALAD score had a sensitivity of 0.81 and a specificity of 0.86. In a re-fit of the logistic regression model, the most significant factors in the GALAD model in our cohort were AFP-L3% and log(DCP). The AUC of the new GALAD model after model selection was 0.89. Conclusion: The GALAD score can be used to detect HCC in Ghana and has the potential to improve HCC surveillance in low-resource settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Citation Format: Yvonne Ayerki Nartey, Ju Dong Yang, Tyler Zemla, Joshua Ayawin, Shadrack Osei Asibey, Mohamed El-Kassas, Sally Afua Bampoh, Amoako Duah, Adwoa Agyei-Nkansah, Yaw Asante Awuku, Mary Yeboah Afihene, Hiroyuki Yamada, Jun Yin, Amelie Plymoth, Lewis Rowland Roberts. Accuracy of the GALAD serologic model in the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Ghanaian patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 4802.

PURPOSE Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the fourth most common cancer in Africa, has a dismal overall survival of only 3 months like in sub-Saharan Africa. This is affected by the low gross domestic product and human development index, absence of coherent guidelines, and other factors. METHODS An open forum for HCC-experienced health care workers from Africa and the rest of the world was held in October 2021. Participants completed a survey to help assess the real-life access to screening, diagnoses, and treatment in the North and Southern Africa (NS), East and West Africa (EW), Central Africa (C), and the rest of the world. RESULTS Of 461 participants from all relevant subspecialties, 372 were from Africa. Most African participants provided hepatitis B vaccination and treatment for hepatitis B and C. More than half of the participants use serum alpha-fetoprotein and ultrasound for surveillance. Only 20% reported using image-guided diagnostic liver biopsy. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer is the most used staging system (52%). Liver transplant is available for only 28% of NS and 3% EW. C reported a significantly lower availability of resection. Availability of local therapy ranged from 94% in NS to 62% in C. Sorafenib is the most commonly used systemic therapy (66%). Only 12.9% reported access to other medications including immune checkpoint inhibitors. Besides 42% access to regorafenib in NS, second-line treatments were not provided. CONCLUSION Similarities and differences in the care for patients with HCC in Africa are reported. This reconfirms the major gaps in access and availability especially in C and marginally less so in EW. This is a call for concerted multidisciplinary efforts to achieve and sustain a reduction in incidence and mortality from HCC in Africa.

Background: The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)—with and without improved adherence—against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance. Methods: We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial in patients with compensated cirrhosis comparing potential surveillance strategies: biannual surveillance using ultrasound, ultrasound plus AFP, and mt-HBT with or without improved adherence (+10% increase). We used published data to inform underlying liver disease progression rates, HCC tumor growth patterns, performance characteristics of surveillance modalities, and efficacy of treatments. Primary outcomes of interest were the number of early-stage HCCs detected and life years gained. Results: Per 100,000 patients with cirrhosis, mt-HBT detected 1680 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound alone and 350 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 5720 and 1000 life years, respectively. mt-HBT with improved adherence detected 2200 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound and 880 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 8140 and 3420 life years, respectively. The number of screening tests needed to detect one HCC case was 139 with ultrasound, 122 with ultrasound + AFP, 119 with mt-HBT, and 124 with mt-HBT with improved adherence. Conclusions: mt-HBT is a promising alternative to ultrasound-based HCC surveillance, particularly given anticipated improved adherence with blood-based biomarkers could increase HCC surveillance effectiveness.

Background and Aims: Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate, continuous biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, the optimal combination with clinical factors to predict the risk of incident hepatic decompensation is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an MRE-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation for patients with NAFLD. Approach and Results: This international multicenter cohort study included participants with NAFLD undergoing MRE from 6 hospitals. A total of 1254 participants were randomly assigned as training (n = 627) and validation (n = 627) cohorts. The primary end point was hepatic decompensation, defined as the first occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or HE. Covariates associated with hepatic decompensation on Cox-regression were combined with MRE to construct a risk prediction model in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. The median (IQR) age and MRE values were 61 (18) years and 3.5 (2.5) kPa in the training cohort and 60 (20) years and 3.4 (2.5) kPa in the validation cohort, respectively. The MRE-based multivariable model that included age, MRE, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets had excellent discrimination for the 3- and 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (c-statistic 0.912 and 0.891, respectively) in the training cohort. The diagnostic accuracy remained consistent in the validation cohort with a c-statistic of 0.871 and 0.876 for hepatic decompensation at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and was superior to Fibrosis-4 in both cohorts (p < 0.05). Conclusions: An MRE-based prediction model allows for accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation and assists in the risk stratification of patients with NAFLD.

INTRODUCTION: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a primary liver malignancy with poor prognosis. Current prognostic methods are most accurate for patients with surgically resectable disease. However, a significant proportion of patients with iCCA are not surgical candidates. We aimed to develop a generalizable staging system based on clinical variables to determine prognosis of all patients with iCCA. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 436 patients with iCCA seen between 2000 and 2011. For external validation, 249 patients with iCCA seen from 2000 to 2014 were enrolled. Survival analysis was performed to identify prognostic predictors. All-cause mortality was the primary end point. RESULTS: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, tumor number, tumor size, metastasis, albumin, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 were incorporated into a 4-stage algorithm. Kaplan-Meier estimates for 1-year survival were 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.1–99.7), 72.7% (95% CI 63.4–83.4), 48.0% (95% CI 41.2–56.0), and 16% (95% CI 11–23.5), respectively, for stages I, II, III, and IV. Univariate analysis yielded significant differences in risk of death for stages II (hazard ratio [HR] 1.71; 95% CI 1.0–2.8), III (HR 3.32; 95% CI 2.07–5.31), and IV (HR 7.44; 95% CI 4.61–12.01) compared with stage I (reference). Concordance indices showed the new staging system was superior to the TNM staging for predicting mortality in the derivation cohort, P < 0.0001. In the validation cohort, however, the difference between the 2 staging systems was not significant. DISCUSSION: The proposed independently validated staging system uses nonhistopathologic data to successfully stratify patients into 4 stages. This staging system has better prognostic accuracy compared with the TNM staging and can assist physicians and patients in treatment of iCCA.