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Introduction: Physical activity (PA) has been identified as a modifiable factor inversely associated with cognitive decline and dementia risk. However, most longitudinal studies to date have short follow-up and report inconsistent results on the benefit of PA to support brain health among older adults. In this study, we hypothesized that higher levels of PA measured in late life would be associated with slower rates of global and domain-specific cognitive decline and a lower risk of dementia over ~10 years in late life. Methods: Dementia-free participants (n=5,982; mean age: 76 years; 42% male, 23% Black) who completed the interviewer-administered Modified Baecke PA Questionnaire at ARIC visit 5 (2011-2013) were included. Using the PA component of the American Heart Association’s Life’s Simple 7, participants’ PA levels were categorized as ideal, intermediate, or poor. Cognitive tests were administered at ARIC visits 5 (2011-13), 6 (2016-17), 7 (2018-19), 8 (2020), and 9 (2021-22), and were used to calculate factor scores for global cognitive function and the domains of memory, language, and executive function. Linear mixed models estimated the association of PA with change in cognitive function. Dementia cases were defined by adjudicated review, telephone interviews, informant interviews, hospitalization records, and death certificates. Dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. All models adjusted for age, sex, race-center, education, APOE-ε4 allele, smoking, hypertension, body mass index, and diabetes. Results: Participants with ideal or intermediate PA, compared to poor PA, had slower rates of decline in global cognition, but no significant differences in rates of decline across individual cognitive domains. Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, participants with ideal (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.67) or intermediate (adjusted HR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.80, 0.91) PA had a reduced risk of dementia compared to participants with poor PA. Conclusions: Higher PA levels in late life demonstrated a protective association with long-term global cognitive decline and incident dementia. Although further research with more frequent and objective measures of PA is needed to determine the duration, frequency, and intensity of PA recommended to promote brain health in older adults, our findings suggest that promoting PA among aging populations offers a non-invasive and accessible approach to support brain health.

Introduction: Vascular risk factors of hypertension, diabetes, and smoking in midlife (45-64 years) and possibly early late-life (65-74 years) are associated with increased risk of dementia. Current estimates of population attributable risk for dementia assume vascular factors are independent and do not interact to increase risk of dementia, which may underestimate the combined impact of vascular risk reduction on dementia incidence. In this study, we evaluated the joint association and interaction of vascular risk factors on risk of dementia. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort analysis using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study using up to 33 years of follow-up (1987-2020). We used age as baseline (45-54 years, n=7,731; 55-64 years, n=12,273; and 65-74 years, n=6,660). We defined hypertension as systolic blood pressure ≥130 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure ≥80 mm Hg, or anti-hypertension medication use. We defined diabetes as fasting glucose level ≥126 mg/dL, non-fasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, self-reported physician diagnosis, or use of any diabetes medication. Current smoking was self-reported. We investigated additive and multiplicative interactions for combinations of vascular risk factors on incident (adjudicated) dementia by age 80 using joint effect variables in Cox regression models stratified by age of risk factor measurement (45-54 years, 55-64 years, or 65-74 years). For interaction analyses, parameter values >1 indicate positive interaction (synergy) and values <1 indicate negative interaction (antagonism). Results: In participants with risk factors measured in these baseline age strata, there were 801 (10%), 995 (8%), and 422 (6%) cases of incident dementia by age 80, respectively. Hypertension and diabetes exhibited positive interactions on the additive and multiplicative scales in midlife (Figure 1). Diabetes and smoking in midlife had positive additive interaction (value >1, Figure 2). All vascular risk factor combinations in late-life had negative interactions on the multiplicative scale (values <1, Figures 1-3). Conclusions: Hypertension with diabetes and diabetes with smoking, all measured in midlife, interact to increase risk of dementia by age 80. The overall impact of reducing midlife vascular risk factors on incident dementia could be sizeable. These findings highlight the importance of multifactor interventions addressing combinations of vascular risk factors for dementia prevention strategies.

AbstractBackgroundBlood‐based biomarkers show promise as a noninvasive, inexpensive method for measuring Alzheimer’s disease pathology throughout the lifecourse. However, the predictive and classification accuracy of these biomarkers at different stages of the lifecourse and among diverse, community‐dwelling populations requires further investigation.MethodBetween 2014 and 2015, 329 dementia‐free participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET). Amyloid positivity was defined as a global cortex standardized uptake value ratio greater than 1.2. Stored plasma samples collected in midlife (1993‐95, mean age 58.5 years) and late‐life (2011‐13, mean age 76.2 years) from a subsample of 259 participants were assayed in 2022 using Quanterix SiMoA. The assay quantified amyloid‐β (Aβ)42/40, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 (p‐Tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Unadjusted and covariate‐adjusted logistic regression models estimated the association between plasma biomarkers from midlife and late‐life and amyloid positivity in late‐life. Unadjusted receiver operating characteristic curves documented the classification accuracy of the plasma biomarkers separately and collectively.ResultThe sample (Table 1) included 151 women (58.1%), 105 Black participants (40.4%), and 136 (52.3%) participants with amyloid positivity. In models adjusted for demographics, lifestyle factors, cardiovascular factors, and the presence of APOE ε4 alleles, assays measured in midlife were not associated with amyloid positivity in late‐life (Table 2). However, late‐life measurements of Aβ42/40, p‐Tau181, and GFAP and change per decade from midlife to late‐life in p‐Tau181 and GFAP were associated with greater odds of amyloid positivity. The greatest classification accuracy (Figure 1) was achieved by using all assays measured in midlife and late‐life (AUC = 0.754), although the accuracy when using only late‐life measures was comparable (AUC = 0.737).ConclusionLate‐life plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology and astrogliosis were associated with late‐life amyloid positivity, but midlife plasma biomarkers obtained 16 to 20 years earlier did not exhibit a statistically significant association. Additional longitudinal research is needed to determine whether changes in plasma biomarkers measured before an individual is classified as amyloid positive can be used to identify individuals at risk of developing Alzheimer's disease.

AbstractBackgroundOlder adults with dual cognitive and mobility impairments have higher financial costs and poorer quality of life than adults with either impairment alone. Blood biomarkers of Alzheimer Disease (AD) pathology (Aβ42, Aβ40 and p‐tau181) and neurodegeneration (neurofilament light (NFL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)) may identify individuals at risk for both mobility and cognitive impairment and provide novel insights into mechanistic underpinnings.MethodBlood biomarkers (SiMoA Quanterix N4PE, p‐tau181 single‐plex) were available in a subsample of 1751 ARIC study participants at Visit 5 (V5, 2011‐13, mean age 76.2 years (5.3), 41% men, 28% Black); Aβ42 was reversed and adjusted for Aβ40 (‐Aβ42|40) for consistent directions of associations (higher=worse). Usual gait speed and cognitive status were assessed over 8 years at V5, V6 (2016‐17), and V7 (2017‐18). Participants were categorized by V5 impairment: mobility‐only (gait speed <0.8m/s, n=430), cognitive‐only (expert‐adjudicated dementia, n=38), dual (n=54), or neither (referent, n=1229). Multinomial regression models examined relative risk ratios (RRR) of V5 log‐transformed biomarkers with prevalent impairments and, among those with neither impairment at V5, incident impairments through V7. All models adjusted for V5 age, sex, self‐reported race (Black or White), renal function, and body mass index.ResultHigher levels of all biomarkers were associated with greater risk of prevalent impairment in mobility, cognitive, or dual domains (Figure A). Over 8‐years of follow‐up, incident impairments included 471 participants with only mobility impairments, 39 with only cognitive impairments, 55 with dual impairments, and 168 died without developing any impairment. All biomarkers were associated with incident dual impairment per IQR higher biomarker: p‐tau181 (RRR=2.54; 95% CI: 1.45, 4.44), ‐Aβ42|40 (RRR=1.66; 1.31, 2.09), NfL (RRR=2.69; 1.22, 5.91) and GFAP (RRR=2.13; 1.07, 4.25). P‐tau181, ‐Aβ42|40, and GFAP were also associated with incident cognitive‐only impairment, while P‐tau181, NFL and GFAP were associated with incident mobility‐only impairment. (Figure B).ConclusionBlood biomarkers of brain health may be useful tools for earlier identification of those at risk for cognitive, mobility, or dual declines, facilitating earlier targeted interventions. Potential differences in AD‐pathology versus neurodegeneration blood biomarker relationships with outcomes of mobility and cognition may help to identify more targeted interventions for both.

AbstractBackgroundWeakened white matter (WM) integrity is highly associated with dementia risk. Still, not everyone with WM changes develops dementia, suggesting the important role modifiable lifestyle factors may have in reducing dementia risk. We investigated how social relationships in mid‐life may modify the association between WM integrity and incident dementia risk within race and sex subgroups.MethodIn 1,679 Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) study participants who were dementia‐free in mid‐life, psychosocial health was assessed via self‐reported questionnaires and participants were classified as having strong or poor social relationships in mid‐life (visit 2: 1990‐1992). Through diffusion tensor imaging, WM integrity was evaluated with 3T brain MRI (visit 5: 2011 – 2013); fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were estimated. Incident dementia cases were identified from visit 5 through December 31, 2019, with ongoing surveillance. Relative contributions of social relationships and WM integrity to incident dementia were evaluated in Cox‐proportional hazard regression models with race and race‐sex as interaction terms, and in stratified models (White Females, Black Females, White Males, Black Males).ResultSignificant three‐way interactions were observed between race, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships (p‐interaction<0.01). In Black participants with strong mid‐life social relationships, higher MD (hazard ratio (HR): 0.93, 95% CI: 0.63 – 1.38) and lower FA (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.84 – 1.86) were not associated with the risk of dementia, although in Black participants with poor social relationships, higher MD remained a significant risk factor for dementia. However, across all White participants, higher MD and lower FA were associated with the risk of dementia, regardless of mid‐life social relationships (Table 1; Figure 1). Analysis of three‐way interactions between race‐sex, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships suggested that effect modification by mid‐life social relationships was most evident in Black Females, respective to other groups (Table 2; Figure 1).ConclusionThe contribution of WM integrity to dementia risk may be lower in Black participants with strong social relationships in mid‐life, particularly in Black Females. Further understanding of how contextual social factors may influence brain health in diverse populations should be examined in future studies and intervention efforts.

AbstractBackgroundMidlife vascular risk factors are associated with an increased risk of dementia. However, the overall contribution of modifiable vascular risk factors in midlife and late‐life to dementia remains unclear. In this study, we quantified population attributable fractions, which account for risk factor prevalence and strength of relative risks, of incident dementia from vascular risk factors measured in midlife and early late‐life.MethodWe used 33 years of prospective cohort data in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Incident dementia (community surveillance and algorithmic diagnosis with expert clinical adjudication) was ascertained from baseline (1987‐1989) through December 31, 2020. We quantified population attributable fractions of incident dementia by age 80 from the combination of hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥130, diastolic blood pressure ≥80, or use of medication), diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126, non‐fasting glucose ≥200, self‐reported physician diagnosis of diabetes, or use of medication for diabetes/insulin), and self‐reported current cigarette smoking (at least one risk factor versus none) measured at different ages (45‐54 [n = 7,731], 55‐64 [n = 12,273]; 65‐74 [n = 6,660]). We also computed attributable fractions stratified by sex, apolipoprotein ε4 genotype, and self‐reported race.ResultThe prevalence of having one or more of the vascular risk factors was 61.6% (95% CI: 60.5, 62.7%) at age 45‐54 and increased to 77.5% (95% CI: 76.5, 78.5%) by age 65‐74. Population attributable fractions of dementia increased from 22.7% (95% CI: 15.3, 30.1%) for vascular risk factors measured at age 45‐54 to 45.4% (95% CI: 32.5, 58.3%) for vascular risk factors assessed at age 65‐74 (see Figure). Attributable fractions were larger in females, participants without apolipoprotein ε4 alleles, and Black participants (Figure).ConclusionBetween 23% to 45% of incident dementia cases by age 80 were attributed to a combination of hypertension, diabetes, or current smoking up through age 74. Attributable fractions for the combined impact of vascular risk varied by key demographics. Public health strategies targeting modifiable vascular risk factors could reduce dementia risk and increase healthy lifespan.

AbstractBackgroundWeakened white matter (WM) integrity is highly associated with dementia risk. Still, not everyone with WM changes develops dementia, suggesting the important role modifiable lifestyle factors may have in reducing dementia risk. We investigated how social relationships in mid‐life may modify the association between WM integrity and incident dementia risk within race and sex subgroups.MethodIn 1,679 Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) study participants who were dementia‐free in mid‐life, psychosocial health was assessed via self‐reported questionnaires and participants were classified as having strong or poor social relationships in mid‐life (visit 2: 1990‐1992). Through diffusion tensor imaging, WM integrity was evaluated with 3T brain MRI (visit 5: 2011 – 2013); fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were estimated. Incident dementia cases were identified from visit 5 through December 31, 2019, with ongoing surveillance. Relative contributions of social relationships and WM integrity to incident dementia were evaluated in Cox‐proportional hazard regression models with race and race‐sex as interaction terms, and in stratified models (White Females, Black Females, White Males, Black Males).ResultSignificant three‐way interactions were observed between race, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships (p‐interaction<0.01). In Black participants with strong mid‐life social relationships, higher MD (hazard ratio (HR): 0.93, 95% CI: 0.63 – 1.38) and lower FA (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.84 – 1.86) were not associated with the risk of dementia, although in Black participants with poor social relationships, higher MD remained a significant risk factor for dementia. However, across all White participants, higher MD and lower FA were associated with the risk of dementia, regardless of mid‐life social relationships (Table 1; Figure 1). Analysis of three‐way interactions between race‐sex, WM integrity, and mid‐life social relationships suggested that effect modification by mid‐life social relationships was most evident in Black Females, respective to other groups (Table 2; Figure 1).ConclusionThe contribution of WM integrity to dementia risk may be lower in Black participants with strong social relationships in mid‐life, particularly in Black Females. Further understanding of how contextual social factors may influence brain health in diverse populations should be examined in future studies and intervention efforts.

AbstractBackgroundPharmacoepidemiologic studies assessing drug effectiveness for Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) are increasingly popular given the critical need for effective therapies for ADRD. To meet the urgent need for robust dementia ascertainment from real‐world data, we aimed to develop a novel algorithm for identifying incident and prevalent dementia in claims.MethodWe developed algorithm candidates by different timing/frequency of dementia diagnosis/treatment to identify dementia from inpatient/outpatient/prescription claims for 6,515 and 3,997 participants from Visits 5 (2011‐2013; mean age 75.8 (SD 5.3) years) and 6 (2016‐2017; mean age 79.8 (SD 4.8) years) of the ARIC cohort with ≥ 1‐year continuous Medicare Part A & B enrollment prior to each visit. We evaluated algorithm performance (sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive value (PPV)/negative predictive value (NPV)) against the gold standard of the ARIC dementia classification based on an extensive battery of neurocognitive tests administered at each visit. We compared performance of the new algorithm with that of three existing algorithms (Jain, Bynum, Lee) and their relaxed forms (4‐year window, dementia diagnosis plus a depression diagnosis or dementia evaluation procedure, ignoring code position) to identify incident (n = 90 at V6) and prevalent dementia (n = 190 at V5; n = 160 at V6).ResultThe newly developed primary algorithm requires presence of a dementia diagnosis code followed by another diagnosis code within 1 year (under condition that the following non‐specific ICD‐9 diagnostic codes, 290.40, 290.41, 290.11, 290.3, should appear no more than once), or a subsequent dementia treatment prescription within 90 days (requiring Medicare Part D enrollment ≥ 6 months). The PPV of the new algorithm in the identification of incident dementia was PPV of 72.7%, with a specificity of 99.1%, outperforming existing algorithms. Its sensitivity of 38.7% and NPV of 96.2% were comparable to those achieved by existing algorithms. Sensitivity analysis restricting to ICD‐10 diagnostic codes increased the PPV and attenuated its sensitivity by 6%. Similar comparative performance was observed in the identification of prevalent dementia.ConclusionA novel algorithm for identifying dementia from Medicare claims, developed using linked ARIC‐Medicare data, outperforms previous algorithms and stands as a valuable tool in the assessment of ADRD drugs from real‐world data.

BACKGROUND: Associations between magnetic resonance imaging markers of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) and dementia risk in older adults have been established, but it remains unclear how lifestyle factors, including psychosocial health, may modify this association. METHODS: Social support and social isolation were assessed among participants of the community-based ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study, via self-reported questionnaires (1990–1992). Following categorization of both factors, participants were classified as having strong or poor mid-life social relationships. At visit 5 (2011–2013), participants underwent 3T brain magnetic resonance imaging quantifying CSVD measures: white matter hyperintensity volume, microbleeds (subcortical), infarcts (lacunar), and white matter integrity (diffusion tensor imaging). Incident dementia cases were identified from the time of imaging through December 31, 2020 with ongoing surveillance. Associations between CSVD magnetic resonance imaging markers and incident dementia were evaluated using Cox proportional-hazard regressions adjusted for demographic and additional risk factors (from visit 2). Effect modification by mid-life social relationships was evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 1977 participants with magnetic resonance imaging, 1617 participants (60.7% women; 26.5% Black participants; mean age at visit 2, 55.4 years) were examined. In this sample, mid-life social relationships significantly modified the association between white matter hyperintensity volume and dementia risk ( P interaction=0.001). Greater white matter hyperintensity volume was significantly associated with risk of dementia in all participants, yet, more substantially in those with poor (hazard ratio, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.49–2.27]) versus strong (hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.08–1.47]) mid-life social relationships. Although not statistically significant, subcortical microbleeds in participants with poor mid-life social relationships were associated with a greater risk of dementia, relative to those with strong social relationships, in whom subcortical microbleeds were no longer associated with elevated dementia risk. CONCLUSIONS: The elevated risk of dementia associated with CSVD may be reduced in participants with strong mid-life social relationships. Future studies evaluating psychosocial health through the life course and the mechanisms by which they modify the relationship between CSVD and dementia are needed.