Citations

This commentary describes the progress of the SEAL [Surrogate Endpoints for Aggressive Lymphoma] research group and invites collaboration in sharing data to continue building a large database of individual patient data from multiple clinical trials in DLBCL.

LBA1 Background: Since 2004, 6 months (m) of oxaliplatin (oxali)-based treatment has been the standard of care as adjuvant therapy for stage III CC. Since oxali is associated with cumulative neurotoxicity, shorter duration of adjuv therapy could spare pts toxicity and lead to substantial saving in health expenditures. Methods: A prospective, pre-planned pooled analysis of 6 concurrently conducted randomized phase III trials (SCOT, TOSCA, Alliance/SWOG 80702, IDEA France (GERCOR/PRODIGE), ACHIEVE, HORG) was performed to evaluate the non-inferiority (NI) of 3m compared with 6m (ref) of adjuv FOLFOX/XELOX. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), defined as time from enrolment to relapse, 2nd CRC, and death (all causes). NI was to be declared if the 2-sided 95% confidence interval (CI) for DFS hazard ratio (HR 3m v 6m) estimated by a stratified Cox model was below 1.12. NI was examined within regimen and stage subgroups as pre-planned. Results: The analysis included 12,834 pts from 12 countries, accrued from 6/07 to 12/15. Stage distribution: 13% T1-2, 66% T3, 21% T4; 28% N2; 40% received XELOX. G3+ neurotoxicity was higher in the 6m v 3m arm (16 v 3% FOLFOX, 9 v 3% XELOX, p<0.0001). With a median follow-up of 39 mos, 3263 DFS events were observed. Overall, the 3 year DFS rate was 74.6% (3m) and 75.5% (6m), with estimated DFS HR of 1.07 (95%CI, 1.00-1.15). The 3m v 6m DFS HRs were 1.16 (95%CI, 1.06-1.26) and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.85-1.06) for FOLFOX and XELOX treated pts, respectively. The 3m v 6m DFS HRs were 1.01 (95%CI, 0.90-1.12) in T1-3 N1, and 1.12 (95%CI, 1.03-1.23) for T4 or N2 pts. Conclusions: While NI was not established for the overall cohort, NI of 3m v 6m oxali-based adjuv therapy was supported for XELOX. As each IDEA trial treated varying proportions of pts with XELOX (0 to 75%), the regimen interaction likely produced the differential outcomes observed between individual studies. Certain substages (T1-3 N1) also showed NI for 3m v 6m. These data provide a framework for discussions on risks and benefits of individualized adjuv therapy approaches. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U10CA180888, U10CA180835, INCA, PHRC2009, EME 09/800/34, HTA 14/140/84, CRUK C1348/A15960, JFMC. Clinical trial information: NCT01150045.

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about anorectal function and quality of life after chemoradiation followed by local excision, which is an alternative to total mesorectal excision for selected patients with early rectal cancer. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to prospectively assess anorectal function and health-related quality of life of patients with T2N0 rectal cancer who were treated with an alternative approach. DESIGN: This was a prospective, phase II trial. SETTINGS: The study was multicentric (American College of Surgeons Oncology Group trial Z6041). INTERVENTIONS: Patients with stage cT2N0 rectal adenocarcinomas were treated with an oxaliplatin/capecitabine-based chemoradiation regimen followed by local excision. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anorectal function and quality of life were assessed at enrollment and 1 year postoperatively with the Fecal Incontinence Severity Index, Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life scale, and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Colorectal Questionnaire. Results were compared, and multivariable analysis was performed to identify predictors of outcome. RESULTS: Seventy-one patients (98%) were evaluated at enrollment and 66 (92%) at 1 year. Compared with baseline, no significant differences were found on Fecal Incontinence Severity Index scores at 1 year. Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life results were significantly worse in the lifestyle (p < 0.001), coping/behavior (p < 0.001), and embarrassment (p = 0.002) domains. There were no differences in the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy overall score, but the physical well-being subscale was significantly worse and emotional well-being was improved after surgery. Treatment with the original chemoradiation regimen predicted worse depression/self-perception and embarrassment scores in the Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life, and male sex was predictive of worse scores in the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy overall score and trial outcome index. LIMITATIONS: Small sample size, relatively short follow-up, and absence of information before cancer diagnosis were study limitations. CONCLUSIONS: Chemoradiation followed by local excision had minimal impact on anorectal function 1 year after surgery. Overall quality of life remained stable, with mixed effects on different subscales. This information should be used to counsel patients about expected outcomes.

766 Background: Tumor-size-based endpoints such as depth of response have recently become a focus of investigations related to search for early on-treatment predictive markers for patients with colorectal cancer (Piessevaux et al. 2013; Cremolini et al., 2015; Heinemann et al., 2015). We evaluate the use of time-to-nadir (TTN) and depth-of-nadir (DoN) as potential surrogates for overall survival (OS). Methods: We have used the data from trials included in the ARCAD Advanced Colorectal Cancer Database. We have considered three sets of treatment comparisons: comparisons involving only chemotherapy agents (CT); involving anti-angiogenesic agents (ANG); and involving anti-EGFR agents (EGFR). For each of the sets separately, we applied a two-stage modelling approach (Renard et al. 2002) to jointly analyze the relative change of tumor size versus baseline (RCTS) and OS. In particular, in the first stage, a joint model for the repeated measurements of RCTS and OS was fitted to the data. Based on the model, treatment effects on OS and RCTS were estimated. Treatment effects on OS were expressed as log-hazard-ratios, while the effects on RCTS were expressed in terms of differences in the time-to-nadir (TTN) and in the depth of nadir (DoN). In the second stage, a linear regression was fitted through the estimated treatment effects on TTN/DoN and OS. The coefficient of determination (R2), computed by using the comparison-specific sample-size as weights, was used to quantify the strength of association between the treatment effects on TTN/DoN and OS. In particular, values of R2 larger than 0.75 were considered as indicating a good surrogate. Results: The CT set included 18 comparisons with 5726 pts. in total. For the treatment effects on TTN and OS, the value of R2 was estimated to be equal to 0.31, while for DoN and OS, it was equal to 0.01. For the ANG set (11 comparisons, 3964 pts.) the values of R2 were equal to 0.26 and 0.21, respectively, while for the EGFR set (16 comparisons, 4687 pts.) they were equal to 0.10 and 0.45, respectively. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that TTN and DoN are not good surrogates for OS in advanced colorectal cancer. More detailed analyses are ongoing and will be presented at the meeting.

Purpose Follicular lymphoma (FL) is an indolent cancer, with effective but rarely curative treatment options. As a standard study end point for first-line FL therapy, progression-free survival (PFS) requires extended follow-up (median PFS, > 7 years). To provide patients with earlier access to newer therapies, an earlier end point to expedite clinical trials is needed. Our objective was to formally assess the complete response rate at 30 months (CR30) after initiation of induction therapy as a potential surrogate end point for PFS in first-line FL therapy. Patients and Methods We analyzed individual patient data from 13 randomized multicenter trials of induction and maintenance regimens in first-line FL therapy published after 1990 and with sufficient data to evaluate whether CR30 could predict treatment effects on PFS. Correlation of the CR30 odds ratio with the PFS hazard ratio was evaluated by both linear regression (R2WLS) and bivariate copula (R2Copula) models. Prespecified criteria for surrogacy required either R2WLS or R2Copula ≥ 0.80, with a lower-bound 95% CI > 0.60. Results Data from eight induction and five maintenance randomized trials in 3,837 evaluable patients were analyzed. The prespecified surrogacy threshold was met, with an R2WLS of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.96) and an R2Copula of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.00). Multiple sensitivity and supplemental analyses supported the robustness of the findings. A minimum 11% absolute improvement in CR30 from a 50% control rate predicted a significant treatment effect on PFS (hazard ratio, 0.69). Conclusion This large, prospective, pooled analysis of randomized chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and chemoimmunotherapy trials demonstrates that CR30 is a surrogate end point for PFS in first-line FL treatment trials. Use of this end point may expedite therapeutic development with the intent of bringing novel therapies to this patient population years before PFS results are mature.

2 Background: Testing for HER2 in EAC has become routine given its ability to predict benefit from HER2-targeted therapy. HER2 protein analysis by immunohistochemistry (IHC) is more rapid and generally less expensive than assessment of gene amplification by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). However, the accuracy of IHC for predicting HER2 amplification has not been examined in a large EAC cohort. Methods: Surgical EAC specimens were examined from 675 patients who underwent curative resection at a single institution without preoperative therapy. Tumors were located in the esophagus (47%) or gastroesophageal junction (53%); most were node-positive (73%). Every tumor was evaluated by IHC in parallel with FISH in a blinded manner using FDA-approved assays. A consensus IHC score was determined by 2 pathologists using tumor-specific criteria (negative, 0 or 1+; equivocal, 2+; positive, 3+). Gene amplification by FISH was defined as a HER2/CEP17ratio ≥ 2. Results: HER2 amplification was detected in 89% of IHC 3+ cases, 13% of IHC 2+ cases, and 4% of IHC 0-1+ cases (Table). Accordingly, using FISH as the reference standard, the positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive IHC test (3+) was 89% (79/89 [95% CI 82%-95%]), and the negative predictive value of a negative IHC test (0-1+) was 96% (401/417 [94%-98%]). Importantly, the PPV of an equivocal IHC score (2+) for detecting HER2 amplification was 13% (22/169 [8%-18%]). Conclusions: In the largest study to date comparing HER2 testing methods in EAC, a negative IHC result (0 or 1+) nearly excludes the presence of gene amplification by FISH. Whereas a positive IHC result (3+) strongly predicts for the presence of amplification, an equivocal IHC result (2+) is a weak predictor. These findings in EAC support a HER2 testing algorithm where IHC is used for initial screening and FISH testing is restricted to cases with equivocal IHC results. [Table: see text]

666 Background: Early tumor shrinkage (ETS; ≥20% decrease from baseline) and early objective tumor response (EOTR; CR/PR by RECIST) are associated with improved PFS/OS to a similar extent than best overall response (BOR), confirmed response (ConfR) and non-progression rate (NPR; CR/PR/SD by RECIST) at the individual level in first-line mCRC (ASCO 2014, abstr 3538/3578). We assessed these RBEs at the trial level. Methods: Data were available on 12,185 pts enrolled in a total of 17 randomized trials of chemotherapy (CT) alone or with targeted agents (TAs). ETS, EOTR and NPR were assessed at 6/8/9 and 12 weeks (wks), whereas BOR and ConfR were ascertained within 26 wks from randomization. Association between treatment effects on RBEs and on PFS/OS was assessed by coefficients of determination (R2, adjusted for estimation errors) using a copula model). Results: None of the RBEs had consistently strong correlations with PFS or OS (Table). The number of trials was insufficient to obtain reliable estimates for antiangiogenics and anti-EGFR separately. Conclusions: Despite their individual-level associations with PFS and OS, RBEs do not appear to be surrogate endpoints in first-line mCRC, given their poor predictive ability. [Table: see text]