Citations

6558 Background: Allogeneic stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is currently the only curative therapy in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Methods: A Mayo Clinic enterprise-wide database search identified 138 CMML cases who underwent ASCT. Conventional statistical methods were used for analyses. Results: 138 CMML patients (transplanted between 1995-2024) were included (median age 63 years; males 62%);104 (group A) received ASCT before and 34 (group B) after blast transformation (BT). At initial diagnosis, CMML-1/CMML-2 and dysplastic/proliferative representations were 78%/22% and 54%/46%; 31% displayed abnormal karyotype and most frequent mutations were ASXL1 (56%), TET2 (44%) and SRSF2 (38%). At time of initial diagnosis, CPSS-Mol risk categories were low (17%), intermediate-1 (11%), intermediate-2 (40%), and high (32%). Median time from diagnosis to ASCT was 11 months (range 0-201). Median overall survival (OS) from the time of initial diagnosis was 67 months (range 4-239) and from the time of ASCT 54 (range 0-212) months. Occurrence of BT before ASCT was associated lower post-transplant survival (PTS; 16 vs 95 months, P=0.01, HR 1.9, 95%CI 1.2-3.2). Bone marrow (BM) blasts, at the time of ASCT, <5%, 5-9%, and 10-19% correlated with median OS of 171, 81, and 18 months in group A (p=0.01) and 50, 25, and 13 months in group B (P=0.07), respectively. Pre-ASCT hypomethylating agent exposure was associated with lower PTS in group A (P=0.02). PTS was also adversely affected by DNMT3A and SETBP1 mutations. In group A, PTS was the longest with myeloablative busulfan-based (median not reached) and the shortest (median 22 months) with Cy-TBI-based conditioning (p=0.1). Donor type did not impact PTS: matched unrelated (63%), matched sibling (23%), mismatched unrelated (7%), or haplo-identical (7%). Post-transplant cyclophosphamide was associated with a numerically lower median PTS (22 months), compared to other forms of GVHD prophylaxis (107 months; p=0.1) and significantly higher non-relapse mortality (p=0.02). Documentation of morphologic CR at day 100 was associated with significantly longer PTS in both groups A (92%,164 vs. 18 months; p=0.01) and B (84%, 42 vs. 11 months; p=0.01). The presence of abnormal karyotype at day 100 was associated with shorter PTS in group A (p=0.01). Grade ≥3 acute and moderate to severe chronic GVHD occurred in 20% and 34%, respectively, in group A patients and in 26% and 44% in group B. GRFS at 1/3 years were 42/21% in group A and 31/16% in group B. At last follow up, 44% in group A and 65% in group B were dead. Causes of death were relapse/non-relapse related in 36/64% in group A and 39/61% in group B. Conclusions: ASCT is effective in securing long-term survival in CMML, especially when the procedure is performed prior to BT and in the setting of <5% BM blasts/promonocytes. Response assessment at day 100 was highly informative of outcome.

Abstract Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (alloHCT) is considered for all patients with myeloid neoplasms (MNs) harboring TP53 mutations (TP53mut). The aim of this international study across 7 transplant centers in the United States and Australia was to identify factors associated with improved post-alloHCT survival. Of 134 TP53mut MN cases who underwent alloHCT, 80% harbored complex karyotype; 94% of TP53 variants were localized to the DNA-binding domain (DBD). Most common comutations were ASXL1 (7%), TET2 (7%), and DNMT3A (6%). Median post-HCT survival was 1.03 years, and overall survival (OS) at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years was 51.4%, 35.1%, and 25.1%, respectively. A total of 103 cases (76.9%) met the International Consensus Classification (ICC) criteria for MN with mutated TP53 (referred to as ICC-defined TP53mut MN hereafter). The 3-year OS of ICC-defined TP53mut was significantly shorter compared with that of other TP53mut MNs (3-year OS, 16.9% vs 54.9%; P = .002). ICC-defined TP53mut MNs was independently associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.62; P = .019). The presence of non-DBD TP53mut only (HR, 3.40; P = .005), DNMT3A comutation (HR, 2.64; P = .016), and pre-alloHCT bone marrow blasts ≥5% (HR, 2.76; P = .006) was independently associated with inferior relapse-free survival (RFS), whereas melphalan-based conditioning was associated with superior RFS (HR, 0.52; P = .005). Combining these variables, we constructed a hierarchical model that stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories with 1-year RFS of 81.3%, 31.3%, and 6.7%, respectively (P &lt; .001). In conclusion, a subset of MN harboring TP53mut who have low blasts pre-alloHCT and received melphalan-based conditioning derived long-term benefit from alloHCT.

ABSTRACT Patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND‐AML) derive variable survival benefit from venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven‐HMA) therapy. The primary objective in the current study was to develop genetic risk models that are predictive of survival and are applicable at the time of diagnosis and after establishing treatment response. Among 400 ND‐AML patients treated with Ven‐HMA at the Mayo Clinic, 247 (62%) achieved complete remission with (CR) or without (CRi) count recovery. Multivariable analysis–derived hazard ratios (HR), including 1.8 for European LeukemiaNet (ELN) adverse karyotype, 4.7 for KMT2Ar , 1.7 for TP53 MUT , 2.6 for KRAS MUT , and 2.1 for IDH2 WT were applied to develop an HR‐weighted risk model: low, intermediate, and high; respective median survival censored for allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) (3‐year survival) were “not reached” (67%), 19.1 (33%), and 7.1 months (0%). In patients achieving CR/CRi, adverse karyotype, KMT2Ar , KRAS MUT , IDH2 WT predicted inferior survival, allowing for a complementary response‐stratified risk model. The model was externally validated and was shown to be superior to the ELN 2024 risk model (AIC 179 vs. 195 and AUC 0.77 vs. 0.69). Survival was inferior with failure to achieve CR/CRi or not receiving ASCT; 3‐year survival for high‐risk with or without ASCT was 42% versus 0% ( p < 0.01); intermediate 72% versus 43% ( p = 0.06); and low‐risk 88% versus 78% ( p = 0.53). The Mayo genetic risk models offer pre‐treatment and response‐based prognostic tools for ND‐AML treated with Ven‐HMA. The current study underscores the prognostically indispensable role of achieving CR/CRi and ASCT.

Background Venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven-HMA) therapy results in favorable response rates (CR/CRi 66%) and overall survival (OS; median 14.7 months) in unfit patients with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND-AML; N Engl J Med 2020;383). However, there is substantial heterogeneity in individual patient outcomes based on response to treatment. The objective of the current study was to develop a genetic risk model to predict survival outcome in treatment responders and non-responders, analyzed separately, and also account for allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT). Methods Treatment-naïve AML patients receiving Ven-HMA, outside of a clinical trial, at the Mayo Clinic, USA (MN, AZ, FL) were retrospectively recruited. Molecular studies (48-gene panel) were performed by next-generation sequencing. Response was assessed according to the 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) criteria (Blood 2022;140). Standard statistical analyses were performed using JMP Pro (Version 17.0.0). Results 400 ND-AML patients (median age 73 years, 64% male, 60% de novo) received Ven-HMA. ELN cytogenetic risk included favorable 2%, intermediate 60%, or adverse 38%. Mutations involved TP53 in 26%, TET2 19%, RUNX1 19%, SRSF2 18%, ASXL1 18%, DNMT3A 15%, K/NRAS 13%, NPM1 12%, IDH2 12%, FLT3-ITD 10%, IDH1 7% and DDX41 in 4% of informative cases. 153 (38%) patients achieved CR, 94 (24%) CR with incomplete count recovery (CRi), resulting in CR/CRi in 247 (62%) patients. CR/CRi rates were higher with NPM1 (86% vs 59%), IDH2 (77% vs 60%), and DDX41 mutations (93% vs 61%) and lower with TP53 (45% vs 67%), FLT3-ITD (41% vs 64%), RUNX1 (49% vs 65%) mutations and adverse karyotype (48% vs 71%), with all retaining significance in multivariable analysis. CR/CRi rate was highest (87%) in 75 patients with one or more favorable mutations (NPM1, IDH2, DDX41) and no unfavorable mutation (TP53, FLT3-ITD, RUNX1). CR/CRi rate was lowest in 171 patients with at least one unfavorable mutation and no favorable mutation (44%; p&lt;0.01). After a median follow up of 10.5 months (0.5-66), 105 relapses (43% of patients in CR/CRi), 248 (62%) deaths and 65 (16%) ASCT were documented. Univariate analysis for transplant-censored OS disclosed superior survival in patients achieving CR/CRi (median 21 vs 3.6 months; HR 5.4, 95% CI 4.1-7.1). Among patients achieving CR/CRi, IDH2 mutation was associated with superior (median not reached vs 20.5 months) and male gender (median 17.6 vs 29.2 months), TP53 mutations (median 11.9 vs 24.3 months) and adverse karyotype (median 12.6 vs 29.4 months) with inferior survival; multivariable analysis resulted in HRs (95% CI) of 2.1 (1.3-3.4) for male gender, 2.1 (1.2-3.8) for adverse karyotype, and 2.5 (1.1-5.7) for absence of IDH2 mutations. Male gender did not show an association with karyotype, or TP53 mutations (p&gt;0.1). Accordingly, an HR-weighted genetic risk model was generated with assignment of one point each to male gender, adverse karyotype, and absence of IDH2 mutation: high risk = 3 risk factors (n=38; median 9.6 months; 3-year survival 0%); intermediate risk = 2 risk factors (n=129; median 22 months; 3-year survival 38%); and low-risk = ≤1 risk factor (n=78; median not reached; 3-year survival 69%; p&lt;0.01). In patients bridged to ASCT (n=60), post-transplant survival was inferior in the presence of ≥ 2 risk factors (n=42; median 46 months) vs. ≤1 risk factor (n=18; median not reached; p=0.1). In patients not achieving CR/CRi, risk factors for OS included male gender (median 3.4 vs 6.1 months), adverse karyotype (median 3.3 vs 4.5 months) and TP53 mutation (median 3.1 vs 4.5 months) while those with IDH2 mutations lived longer (median 8.4 vs 3.4 months). In multivariable analysis, HRs (95% CI) were 1.9 (1.3-2.9) for male gender, 2.0 (1.4-2.9) for adverse karyotype, and 2.1 (1.1-4.3) for absence of IDH2 mutations. OS was shortest for non-responders harboring 3 risk factors (n=45; median 3 months; 1-year survival 0%) and longer for those harboring two (n=80; median 6 months, 1-year OS 15%) or ≤ 1 risk factor (n=25; median 14 months; 1-year OS 56%; p&lt;0.01). Conclusion The current study describes a molecular profile for predicting response to Ven-HMA in ND-AML and also introduces a novel approach to survival prediction that considers treatment response as the starting point. In both responders and non-responders, male gender and adverse karyotype were identified as unfavorable and IDH2 mutation favorable risk factor for OS.

Background Venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven-HMA) therapy has demonstrated improved outcomes in elderly/unfit patients with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND-AML) (N Engl J Med 2020;383). However, ~50% of patients who respond to Ven-HMA, eventually relapse (Am J Hematol 2024;99). In the current study we examined the prognostic contribution of gene mutations, karyotype, measurable residual disease (MRD) status and clinical risk factors for relapse in patients with ND-AML treated with Ven-HMA therapy. Methods Our study population of ND-AML was retrospectively recruited from Mayo Clinic (MN, AZ, FL), after institutional review board approval and based on documentation of complete remission with/without count recovery (CR/CRi) following Ven-HMA therapy. Relapse-free survival was determined from the time of remission to relapse or last follow-up. Survival analysis was censored for transplant. The 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) criteria was used to assign cytogenetic risk and classify treatment response (Blood 2022;140). Standard statistical analyses were performed using JMP Pro (Version 17.0.0). Results 247 ND-AML patients treated with Ven-HMA (median age 73 years, 62% male, 64% de novo) who achieved CR (n=153), or CRi (n=94) were included. MRD by multiparameter flow cytometry (sensitivity 0.01%) performed at the time of CR/CRi, was negative in 117 (70%) of 166 informative cases. ELN cytogenetic risk categories at diagnosis included favorable 2%, intermediate 69%, or adverse 29%. Mutations involved TET2 21%, SRSF2 21%, TP53 19%, ASXL1 18%, DNMT3A 18%, NPM1 17%, IDH2 15%, RUNX1 15%, K/NRAS 12%, IDH1 8%, FLT3-ITD 7%, and DDX41 in 6% of informative cases. Relapse was documented in a total of 99 (40%) patients who achieved CR (39%) or CRi (41%) after a median remission duration of 6 months (1-31). Patients that relapsed within the first-year vs those that did not, were more likely to be males (75% vs 55%), MRD positive (44% vs 24%), and harbor TP53 mutations (23% vs 16%). Univariate analysis for RFS identified male gender (12 vs 29 months; p=0.02), secondary AML (10 vs 21 months; p&lt;0.01), adverse karyotype (9 vs 22 months; p&lt;0.01), TP53 mutations (6 vs 18 months, p&lt;0.01) and MRD positive remission (13 months vs not reached; p&lt;0.01) as risk factors for relapse; on the other hand, IDH2 mutations (not reached vs 15 months; p&lt;0.01) were associated with a lower risk of relapse. Multivariable analysis confirmed male gender (HR 2.2), TP53 mutations (HR 3.0) and MRD positive remission (HR 1.7) as unfavorable predictors of relapse. Subsequently, in a three-tiered relapse prediction model, RFS was significantly inferior in the presence of three risk factors (male gender, TP53 mutations, MRD positive remission) (n=10, median 4 months), vs two (n=34, median 10 months) vs ≤ 1 risk factor (n=122, median 31 months) (p&lt;0.01); 1-year cumulative incidence of relapse was 100%, 56%, and 26% in the presence of three, two and ≤ 1 risk factors, respectively. 50 of 99 (65%) patients received salvage therapy which included cladribine-cytarabine-Ven (n=19), intensive induction chemotherapy (n=9), FLT3 inhibitors (n=5), Ven-HMA-FLT3 inhibitor (n=1), IDH1/2 inhibitors (n=5), glasdegib-cytarabine (n=4), gemtuzumab (n=3), lenalidomide (n=1), or investigational therapies (n=3); in addition, Ven-HMA was resumed in 14 patients in whom treatment had been discontinued for a median of 5 months (2-12). Overall, 20 (31%) of patients achieved second CR/CRi and response rates were similar with intensive vs less intensive therapy (CR/CRi; 44% vs 29%; p=0.37). Median follow up after relapse was 3.4 months (1-66), during which 73 (74%) deaths, and 4 (5%) ASCT were recorded. Median transplant-censored survival was 4.2 months (1-year; 22%), and inferior in patients with adverse karyotype (median 4.6 vs 3.4 months; p=0.02), and TP53 mutations (3.6 vs 4.4; p=0.11); on the other hand, male gender (3.5 vs 6.8 months; p=0.51), MRD positive remission (4.6 vs 4.2; p=0.56), and IDH2 mutations (6.7 vs 4.2; p=0.28), did not influence post-relapse survival. Conclusions The current study identifies male gender, TP53 mutations, and MRD status as powerful predictors of relapse and proposes a relapse prediction model for ND-AML patients receiving Ven-HMA therapy. Furthermore, relapse following Ven-HMA was associated with uniformly poor outcomes, regardless of salvage treatment strategy.

Background TP53-mutant (mt) myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are high-risk (HR) neoplasms, with high rates of AML progression and suboptimal response to hypomethylating agents (HMA). Given the lack of effective therapies for HR-MDS, azacitidine (AZA) was combined with venetoclax (VEN) in a phase Ib MDS study demonstrating safety and early efficacy (Garcia et al. ASH abstract 2023). We retrospectively sought to explore clinical outcomes comparing VEN + HMA, to HMA alone in TP53mt HR-MDS. Methods Among 221 TP53mt MDS pts treated at the Mayo Clinic between January 2007 and April 2024, we reviewed outcomes of pts who received HMA alone (n=98) or HMA+VEN combination (n=34) as their first-line chemotherapy regimen. MDS diagnosis was based on the 5th edition of WHO classification of hematolymphoid tumors (Khoury et al. Leukemia 2022). Responses were assessed according to the International Working Group 2006, MDS response criteria (Cheson et al Blood 2006). Results Baseline characteristics and response The median age (years [yrs]) was 65 (R,37-80) and 70 (range [R], 19-87) yrs in the HMA + VEN and HMA alone groups (gps) (p= 0.42), respectively. The median bone marrow (BM) blast % (9.5 [R, 0-18] vs 5 [R, 0-16], p= 0.01) and TP53 variant allele frequency (VAF) (42 [R, 6-96] vs 37 [R, 2-94], p= 0.03) were significantly higher in HMA + VEN compared to HMA gps, respectively. However, proportion of pts with biallelic (BA)/multihitTP53mt (85% vs 79%, p= 0.61) and complex cytogenetics (CG) (85% vs 81%, p= 0.85) were not different between HMA + VEN and HMA alone gps. The distribution of pts with frequently occurring myeloid co-mutations (ASXL1, TET2, DNMT3A, RAS, BCOR and splicing factor) were not significantly (NS) different between the two gps. IPSS-M scores were assessed in 108 (83%) pts; HR/very HR-MDS as per IPSS-M were NS different between HMA + VEN and HMA gps (100% vs 91%, p= 0.12). While the overall response rate (ORR) (76% vs 49%, p= 0.01) and marrow complete remission (mCR) rates (21% vs 7%, p= 0.05) were higher with HMA+VEN compared to HMA, CR rates were similar (17% vs 12%, p= 0.47). Higher proportion of pts were bridged to allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT) (41% vs 20%, p= 0.02), while AML progression rates (29% vs 31%, p= &gt;0.99) were comparable between HMA + VEN and HMA gps, respectively. The non-relapse mortality (NRM) at day 60 (3% vs 3%, p=0.96) and day 90 (3% vs 4%, p=0.75) were comparable between HMA + VEN and HMA gps, respectively. RFS and OS The median follow-up from the time of initiation of HMA or HMA + VEN was 9.7 months (mo) (R, 0.3-90.6). The median RFS (8.47 vs 9.90 mo, p= 0.83) and OS (16.33 vs 14.20 mo, p= 0.66) from the time of initiation of therapy were comparable between the two gps. Similarly, among transplanted pts, there was no OS difference between HMA (21.7 mo) and HMA + VEN (18.43 mo) gps, respectively (p= 0.72). Comparable results for OS and RFS were obtained in both gps after censoring pts at the time of allo-HCT. Multivariable analysis for RFS and OS We conducted multivariable analysis (MVA) for RFS and OS using baseline variables that were significant/ trended towards significance (p&lt;0.1), on univariate analysis (UVA) censored at the time of allo-HCT. Achieving ORR (HR; 0.30, 95% CI: 0.14-0.62, p= 0.001) retained significance for better RFS in MVA. Interestingly CR (HR; 1.74, 95% CI; 0.63-4.77, p= 0.28), BA TP53mt (HR; 1.27, 95% CI; 0.13-11.72, p= 0.83) and complex CG (HR; 1.52, 95% CI 0.16-14.03, p= 0.70) did not retain significance for RFS in MVA. In MVA for OS, achievement of ORR (HR; 0.56, 95% CI; 0.30-1.05, p=0.07) and CR (HR; 0.32, 95% CI; 0.09-1.11, p=0.071) trended towards favorable OS. BA TP53mt status (p= 0.42) and complex CG (p= 0.19) did not significantly impact OS in UVA. Conclusion We conclude that while HMA+VEN combination therapy in comparison to HMA monotherapy led to improved response rates, with higher percentage of pts being bridged to allo-HCT, this was not associated with reduced risk of AML transformation, or improved RFS/OS. We eagerly await results from the prospective randomized trial of VEN + AZA in treatment-naïve HR-MDS (VERONA).

Abstract Venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven‐HMA) is currently the standard frontline therapy for older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND‐AML). Our objective in the current retrospective study of 301 adult patients (median age 73 years; 62% de novo) with ND‐AML was to identify molecular predictors of treatment response to Ven‐HMA and survival; European LeukemiaNet (ELN) genetic risk assignment was favorable 15%, intermediate 16%, and adverse 69%. Complete remission, with (CR) or without (CRi), count recovery, was documented in 182 (60%) patients. In multivariable analysis, inclusive of mutations only, “favorable” predictors of CR/CRi were NPM1 (86% vs. 56%), IDH2 (80% vs. 58%), and DDX41 (100% vs. 58%) and “unfavorable” TP53 (40% vs. 67%), FLT3‐ ITD (36% vs. 63%), and RUNX1 (44% vs. 64%) mutations; significance was sustained for each mutation after adjustment for age, karyotype, and therapy‐related qualification. CR/CRi rates ranged from 36%, in the presence of unfavorable and absence of favorable mutation, to 91%, in the presence of favorable and absence of unfavorable mutation. At median follow‐up of 8.5 months, 174 deaths and 41 allogeneic stem cell transplants (ASCT) were recorded. In multivariable analysis, risk factors for inferior survival included failure to achieve CR/CRi (HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.5–4.8), adverse karyotype (1.6, 1.1–2.6), TP53 mutation (1.6, 1.0–2.4), and absence of IDH2 mutation (2.2, 1.0–4.7); these risk factors were subsequently applied to construct an HR‐weighted risk model that performed better than the ELN genetic risk model (AIC 1661 vs. 1750): low ( n = 130; median survival 28.9 months), intermediate ( n = 105; median 9.6 months), and high ( n = 66; median 3.1 months; p < .001); survival in each risk category was significantly upgraded by ASCT. The current study identifies genotype signatures for predicting response and proposes a 3‐tiered, CR/CRi‐based, and genetics‐enhanced survival model for AML patients receiving upfront therapy with Ven‐HMA.

Background: Venetoclax (Ven) in combination with hypomethylating agent (HMA) is the preferred treatment for elderly/unfit patients with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Current prognostication for AML is based on European LeukemiaNet (ELN) genetic risk stratification which has limited applicability in patients treated with Ven-HMA ( Blood, 2022). Accordingly, our primary objective was to determine predictors of treatment response and survival outcomes in treatment-naïve AML patients receiving Ven-HMA. Methods: Our study population was recruited from Mayo Clinic (MN, FL, AZ), after institutional review board approval and based on documentation of newly-diagnosed AML treated with Ven-HMA outside of clinical trials between November 2018 and April 2023. Cytogenetic and molecular studies were performed by conventional karyotype, and next-generation sequencing, respectively. Response was assessed according to the 2022 ELN criteria Results: Patient characteristics A total of 301 newly-diagnosed AML patients (median age 73 years, 66% male, 62% de novo) received a median of 3 cycles (range 1-48) of azacitidine 75 mg/m2 days 1-7 ( n=100) or decitabine 20 mg/m2 days 1-5 ( n=201) with Ven. ELN 2022 cytogenetic risk included favorable (1%, n=4), intermediate (61%, n=184) or adverse (38%, n=113). Mutations involved TP53 in 77/301 (25%), ASXL1 in 54/279 (19%), RUNX1 in 54/296 (18%), NPM1 in 44/299 (15%), DNMT3A in 40/296 (13%), K/NRAS in 41/296 (14%), IDH1 in 20/301 (6%), IDH2 in 30/301 (10%), FLT3-ITD in 25/301 (8%) and DDX41 in 9/247 (4%) of informative cases. Predictors of response Complete remission, with (CR) or without (CRi), count recovery, was documented in 182 (60%) patients, including CR in 36% and measurable residual disease (MRD) negative by flow cytometry in 77% of 105 informative cases that achieved CR/CRi. Median time to CR/CRi was 1.4 months. In univariate analysis, CR/CRi was more likely to occur in the presence of NPM1 mutation, (86% vs. 56%; p &lt; .01), IDH2 mutation, (80% vs. 58%; p = .02), DNMT3A mutation, (78% vs. 57%; p = .01), or DDX41 mutation, (100% vs. 58%; p &lt;.01), and in the absence of adverse karyotype, (71% vs. 42%; p &lt; .01), TP53 mutation, (67% vs. 40%; p &lt;.01), FLT3-ITD mutation, (63% vs. 36%; p = .01), or RUNX1 mutation, (64% vs. 44%; p = .01); in multivariable analysis, adverse karyotype, ( p &lt; .01), FLT3-ITD ( p &lt; .01), RUNX1 ( p &lt; .01), NPM1 ( p = .03), IDH2 ( p = .04), and DDX41, ( p = .01) mutations remained significant. Predictors of survival After a median follow-up of 8.5 months (range 0.5-56), 13.2 months for living patients, 174 (58%) deaths, 73 relapses (40% of those achieving CR/CRi), and 41 (14%; including 35 in CR/CRi) allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell tranplants (AHSCT) were documented. In univariate analysis of pre-treatment variables, thrombocytopenia &lt; 100 x 10 9/l, (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.03-2.2; p = .03), adverse karyotype, (HR 2.8, 95% CI 2.1-3.8; p &lt; .01) TP53 mutation, (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.8-3.5; p &lt; .01), or absence of IDH2 mutation, (HR 3.5, 95% CI 1.7-7.6; p &lt; .01) predicted inferior survival. Failure to achieve CR/CRi (HR 4.5, 95% CI 3.3-6.1; p &lt; .01) was also associated with inferior survival and in multivariable analysis, failure to achieve CR/CRi, (HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.5-4.8; p&lt; .01), presence of adverse karyotype, (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.6; p = .02), TP53 mutation, (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.002-2.4; p = .04), and absence of IDH2 mutation (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.004-4.7; p = .04) were identified as risk factors for survival. Subsequent HR-weighted scoring resulted in three-tiered risk stratification: low (0-1 point; n= 130), intermediate (2-3 points; n= 105), and high (4-5 points; n= 66), with respective median survival (3-year rate) of 28.9 (48%), 9.6 (6%), and 3.1 (0%) months ( p &lt; .01) (Figure). AHSCT had an independent favorable impact on survival (HR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.6; p &lt; .01), most apparent in low ( p =0.04), and intermediate ( p &lt;.01), as opposed to high ( p = .06) risk. Conclusions: In the current single institutional series of Ven-HMA treated newly-diagnosed AML, response to Ven-HMA was the foremost predictor of survival. Additional risk factors for survival included adverse karyotype, presence of TP53 and absence of IDH2 mutations. These observations allowed for a three-tiered genetics-enhanced survival model with CR/CRi as a backbone, and also confirmed survival advantage from AHSCT, regardless of risk category.

Introduction Atrial fibrillation/flutter (Afib) contributes independently to the hematopoietic cell transplant comorbidity index (HCTCI) and is a known complication of allogeneic hematopoietic transplantation (AlloHCT) which has been linked to inferior outcomes, particularly in older patients. An electrocardiogram (ECG)-based artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to predict Afib and cardiac contractile dysfunction risk has been validated (Lancet 394:861, 2019). We hypothesized that assessment of pre-transplant Afib risk using the AI algorithm may predict future development of Afib and help identify patients at higher risk for this complication. Methods 191 consecutive MDS patients undergoing AlloHCT with curative intent using myeloablative (28.3%) or reduced intensity conditioning (62.3%) in the Mayo Clinic Comprehensive Cancer Center (Rochester, Jacksonville, Phoenix) between November 2015 and January 2022 were included in this retrospective analysis. Primary outcome was Afib within 100 days and 365 days of transplantation, and we also assessed the outcomes of Death and Relapse. Revised IPSS (IPSS-R) and HCTCI scores were included for all patients. Elevated Afib risk score using the AI algorithm was calculated from pre-transplant ECG, performed during vital organ testing at AlloHCT clearance. In addition to left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) we evaluated detailed echocardiographic (Echo) parameters including LV volume and mass indices, left atrial volume index (LAVI), maximum trans mitral flow velocities during LV filling (E velocity) and during the diastolic phase due to atrial contraction (A velocity), the velocity of the annulus away from the apex during the protodiastolic phase (e' velocity), E/A and E/e' ratios, the presence of valvular disease, and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP). We performed an analysis using a Cox proportional hazards regression models (adjusting for age and sex) to evaluate associations with Afib risk, Relapse, and Overall Survival. Results The median age was 64 years (18-75), 58.6% were male, 6.9% non-white race, and 3.7% Hispanic/Latino ethnicity. Most patients had an HCTCI score of 0-3 (76.3%). GVHD prophylaxis was predominantly with calcineurin inhibitor-based regimes plus/minus methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil (83.8%). 5.2% of patients had a history of Afib before transplant. Non-relapse mortality was 7.9% at 100 days, and 18.3% at 365 days. N=25 patients (13.1%) developed Afib within 100 days, and n=28 (14.7%) within 1-year after AlloHCT. On multivariable analysis, Age [Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.83, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.36-5.89, p=0.0055] and Echo parameters [including LAVI (HR 2.10, CI 1.23-3.58, p=0.0067), E velocity (HR 3.28, CI 1.29-8.80, p=0.013), E/A ratio (HR 3.74, CI 1.75-7.97, p=0.0006), E/e ' ratio (HR 1.81, CI 1.07-3.07, p=0.026) and RVSP (HR 1.68, CI 1.04-2.70, p=0.032)] were significantly associated with Afib risk; elevated AI risk score was significant in the univariate model (HR 2.74, CI 1.15-6.53, p=0.023) but was borderline in the multivariate model (HR 2.34, CI 0.98-5.60, p=0.056) ( Table 1). Based on previous observations we evaluated the association of AI and Echo parameters with Relapse and Death after AlloHCT ( Table 1). Age (HR 1.32, CI 1.01-1.71, p=0.041) and IPSS-R (HR 1.20, CI 1.08-1.33, p=0.0009) were significantly associated with Death after AlloHCT, while HCTCI (HR 1.10, CI 1.00-1.22, p=0.052) and higher LV EF (HR 0.63, CI 0.38-1.06, p=0.084) were borderline. For Relapse, only IPSS-R (HR 1.52, CI 1.31-1.75, p=1.22E-08) was significant, while increase Echo E velocity was of borderline significance (HR 0.45, CI 0.20-1.02, p=0.057). Conclusions Afib is a common post-AlloHCT complication and is more frequent with increasing Age. Echo parameters (specifically E/A ratio) predict significantly higher Afib risk, while the baseline ECG AI algorithm was of borderline significance. The selection of patients with lower HCTCI scores, and the low background prevalence of Afib in this cohort (i.e., selection of patients with lower baseline cardiac morbidity) are possible explanations for non-significance of the AI algorithm. As anticipated Age and IPSS-R are the greatest predictors of Death after AlloHCT, although the suggestion of an association with baseline Echo parameters highlights the importance of identifying those who may benefit from preemptive Cardiology intervention.