Tefferi, Ayalew

Abstract The comparative value of liposomal cytarabine/daunorubicin (CPX-351) versus venetoclax plus a hypomethylating agent (Ven-HMA) in the frontline treatment of older adults with primary ( de novo ) or secondary acute myeloid leukemia (AML) remains uncertain. In the current study, we retrospectively examined outcomes of 600 patients with newly diagnosed AML treated with CPX-351 (N = 112) or Ven-HMA (N = 488). AML subtypes included de novo (46%), post-myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) (19%), post-myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) (12%), post-MDS/MPN (6%), therapy-related (17%) and AML with myelodysplasia-related genetic abnormalities (AML-MR; 46%). Patients receiving CPX-351 were younger (median 65 vs. 73 years; p < 0.01), predominantly female (50% vs. 38%; p = 0.02), more likely to have secondary AML (68% vs. 51%; p < 0.01), and less likely to harbor NPM1 MUT (5% vs. 12%; p = 0.02). Rates of complete response with or without count recovery (CR/CRi) were comparable between CPX-351 and Ven-HMA (55% vs. 60%; p = 0.30), including in AML-MR (60% vs. 63%; p = 0.70). Ven-HMA use was associated with fewer infectious complications (62% vs. 83%; p < 0.01) and yielded higher CR/CRi rates in males (60% vs. 45%; p = 0.04), de novo AML (68% vs. 50%; p = 0.03), and in the presence of STAG2 MUT (86% vs. 44%; p = 0.02), or CEBPA MUT (88% vs. 50%; p = 0.03). Overall survival censored for transplant, was similar (median 10 vs. 13 months; p = 0.90), with Ven-HMA being superior in post-MDS AML (median 12 vs. 7 months; p = 0.02) and CPX-351 in the presence of SF3B1 MUT (not reached vs. 14 months; p < 0.01). Our findings suggest that Ven-HMA is as effective and less toxic than CPX-351 in newly diagnosed AML, including AML-MR, despite selection of younger, fitter patients for CPX-351.

Abstract JAK2 unmutated/wild-type erythrocytosis is a prevalent condition encompassing a wide spectrum of hereditary and acquired entities. It is conventionally defined by the same hemoglobin/hematocrit thresholds as for polycythemia vera. Incidence has been reported to be between 0.13% and 4.1%. The most clinically relevant step in the workup of erythrocytosis is the exclusion of polycythemia vera through JAK2 mutation screening. Consideration of relative polycythemia, normal outliers, and the influence of erythropoietic drugs and comorbidities is also imperative. Distinguishing long-standing from newly acquired erythrocytosis further streamlines the diagnostic process. Hereditary erythrocytosis (HE) is lifelong and typically associated with a positive family history. Subnormal serum erythropoietin (EPO) suggests an EPO receptor mutation. Otherwise, oxygen tension at 50% hemoglobin saturation (p50) discerns between high oxygen-affinity hemoglobin variants, 3-bisphosphoglycerate deficiency, methemoglobinemia, and PIEZO1 mutations (low p50) and germline oxygen-sensing pathway/other rare mutations (normal p50). Acquired erythrocytosis results from hypoxia-driven factors (eg, cardiopulmonary, altitude, renal artery stenosis) and other mechanisms of EPO overproduction (eg, EPO-secreting tumors) or hypersensitivity, as well as EPO-independent mechanisms. Drugs (eg, sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, testosterone) are also common causes. Idiopathic erythrocytosis is a diagnosis of exclusion, increasingly attributed to underlying genetic mutations/polymorphisms. There are currently no evidence-based treatment guidelines. Low-dose aspirin and/or phlebotomy (with frequency determined by symptom relief) might be considered on an individualized basis in the presence of hyperviscosity symptoms, cardiovascular comorbidities, and/or a history of thrombosis. Aggressive control of cardiovascular risk factors is recommended in all. A graphic abstract representation is provided in Figure 1.

Abstract Background: The primary goal of induction therapy in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is to induce complete remission with (CR) or without (CRi) hematologic recovery. In order to accomplish this, re-induction might be necessary based on D14-residual AML. The current study examines the impact of re-induction on relapse, transplant-censored survival, and post-transplant survival in a consecutive series of AML patients who have achieved CR/CRi following intensive chemotherapy. The study also examined the impact of variations in consolidation chemotherapy including the use of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (AC) in the first consolidation cycle and the use of high (HiDAC) vs. intermediate (IDAC) dose cytarabine. Methods: The current study was conducted under IRB-approved minimum risk protocols that allowed retrospective collection and analysis of patient data. Formal criteria were used for AML diagnosis, genetic risk stratification, and adjudication of response (Blood 2022;140:1345). Patients who received less intensive induction regimens or failed to achieve CR/CRi were excluded. Relapse-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) analysis was calculated from the date of documented CR/CRi. Patients who underwent allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) were censored at the time of transplant. Conventional statistical methods were utilized (JMP Pro 17.1.0, SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results: A total of 279 AML patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2020 were included: median age 58 years, males 60%, de novo 75%, post-chronic myeloid neoplasm (post-CMN) 16%, and therapy-related 9%. Induction regimens included idarubicin (Ida) + cytarabine (Cyt) in 183 (66%) patients, daunorubicin (Da) 60 mg/m² + Cyt in 76 (27%), and Da 90 mg/m2 + Cyt in 19 (7%). Re-induction was utilized to achieve CR/CRi in 72 (27%) at a median of 18 days from start of first induction regimen. The indication for re-induction was based on residual bone marrow blast (median 30%; range 4-90) on day14 (N=53) or day 21-28 (N=15), persistent extramedullary disease (N=2) or the presence of circulating blast (N=2). At a median transplant censored follow-up of 26 months (mos), 93 (33%) deaths, 117 (42%) relapses, and 134 (48%) ASCTs were documented; ASCTs were performed in CR1 (50%) or CR2 (50%). Median RFS was 18 mos, with respective 1-, 2-, 3- year RFS of 63%, 42% and 35%. In multivariable analysis (MVA), age ≥65 years (HR 1.5, p=0.04), European LeukemiaNet (ELN) adverse karyotype (vs. intermediate HR 1.7, p=0.02; vs. favorable HR 2.8, p&lt;0.01), and the need for re-induction to achieve CR/CRi (HR 1.7, p=0.01) were independently predictive of relapse. RFS was not impacted by NPM1 mutation ( HR 0.5, p=0.09) or FLT3-ITD (HR 1.3, p=0.3). The median OS was 80 mos, with 5-year OS of 53%. In MVA, age ≥65 years (HR 2, p=0.01), ELN adverse karyotype (vs. intermediate HR 3.3, p&lt;0.01; vs. favorable HR 4.7, p&lt;0.01), FLT3-ITD (HR 1.9, p=0.04), and the need for re-induction (HR 1.9, p=0.03) independently predicted inferior OS. RFS was similar among patients who received AC (N=84; Idarubicin 9 mg/m2 or Da 60 mg/m2 days 1 to 2/3 + 100 mg/m2 Cyt days 1 to 5/7; median 18 mos) as their first consolidation cycle vs. those who received HiDAC (N=99; 3 g/m2 q12 hours on days 1,3 and 5; median 16 mos) or IDAC (N=58; IDAC; 1-2 g/m2 q12 hours on days 1, 3 and 5; median 24 mos; p=0.9); the corresponding median OS were 125, 85, and 40 mos (p=0.4). In patients aged ≥65 years, but not younger patients, both RFS (p&lt;0.01; median 23 (N=36) vs. 8 (N=24) mos) and OS (median 40 vs. 12 mos, p&lt;0.01) were significantly longer with IDAC vs. AC as their first consolidation cycle. In the AC consolidation cohort, patients who received 2-3 additional HiDAC/IDAC cycles displayed longer OS (p&lt;0.01) and RFS (p=0.047), compared to those who received less. In both the HiDAC and IDAC cohorts, RFS and OS were not significantly different between those who received 3-4 versus 1-2 consolidation cycles. The need for re-induction did not affect post-transplant survival (p=0.5), which was superior in patients receiving Ida + Cyt induction (vs. Da 60mg/m2 + Cyt, HR 0.6, p=0.04) and in those transplanted in CR1 (HR 0.5, p&lt;0.01). Conclusions: The current study signals the need for re-induction to achieve CR1 as a negative predictor of outcome in AML patients achieving CR/CRi following intensive induction chemotherapy. The particular information is potentially actionable in terms of the choice of consolidation strategy.

Abstract Background Momelotinib, a small-molecule Janus kinase 1 and 2 (JAK1/2) inhibitor (JAKi), is FDA-approved (September 15, 2023) for use in anemic patients with myelofibrosis (MF). The drug appears to have an edge over other FDA-approved JAKis in regard to its unique erythropoietic effect that has been attributed to its inhibitory activity on activin A receptor type-1 (ACVR1). In clinical trials, anemia response to momelotinib in JAKi-naïve MF patients has been reported in more than a third of patients with or without transfusion-dependent anemia (TDA). The current study examines the drug's efficacy and toxicity in JAKi-naïve patients treated outside of clinical trials and after the drug was commercially approved. Methods The current study was conducted under an institutional review board approved minimum risk protocol. Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Arber et al. Blood 2022; 140:1200). Study inclusion criteria included a hemoglobin level of &lt;10 g/dL and absence of previous treatment with JAKi. Responses were adjudicated by the Revised International Working Group-European LeukemiaNet criteria (IWG-ELN; Blood 2024; 144:1813). Conventional statistical methods were used (JMP Pro 18.0.0 software SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results A Mayo Clinic enterprise-wide search identified 60 patients (median age 73 years; 55% males) with primary or secondary MF who received momelotinib outside of clinical trials as their first JAKi for treatment of anemia and associated symptoms. Driver mutation distribution included JAK2 42%, CALR 30%, MPL 18%, and triple-negative 10%. Table 1 outlines clinical and laboratory findings at the time of momelotinib treatment initiation; Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS)-plus risk distribution included high (72%) and intermediate 1/2 (28%) risk. Twenty-seven (45%) patients were transfusion-requiring, 24 (40%) displayed peripheral blood (PB) blast ≥2%, 10 (17%) platelet count &lt;100 x 109/L, and 14 (25%) marked palpable splenomegaly (≥20cm). Unfavorable karyotype was seen in 9 (16%) of 58 patients. NGS-derived mutations were assessed in 57 cases and included ASXL1 (35%), TET2 (19%), SF3B1 (16%), SRSF2 (14%) and 7% (N=4) each for EZH2, IDH2, SH2B3, and ZRSR2. Baseline plasma cytokine levels were assessed in 17 patients with elevated TNF-a in 88%, IL-2 soluble 65%, IL-6 29% and IL-18 53%. Anemia response and predictors Fourteen (23%) patients met revised IWG-ELN criteria for anemia response (TDA 15% and non-TDA 30%; p=0.15). The anemia response was within 3 months in 10 (71%) patients. Median (range) durations of momelotinib exposure and anemia response were 8 (1-23) and 5 (1-13) months, respectively. The drug was discontinued in 29 (48%) patients (39% due to side effects; Table 2). In age-adjusted univariate analysis, predictors of anemia response included circulating blasts &lt;2% (33% [12/36] vs. 8% [2/24]; p=0.02), presence of SH2B3 mutation (100% [4/4] vs. 19% [10/53]; p&lt;0.01), and elevated IL-2 soluble (36% [4/11] vs. 0% [0/6]; p=0.02). The correlation with SH2B3 mutation remained significant (p&lt;0.01) after accounting for circulating blasts. Treatment emergent neuropathy and nephropathy Sensory peripheral neuropathy (PN) was reported by 12 (20%) patients with a median onset of 2 months (range 1-7); CTCAE v5.0 grades 1 (N=8), 2 (N=3), and 3 (N=1); reversibility was documented only for grade 1 severity and did not appear to be consistently affected by drug discontinuation or dose reduction (Table 3). Seventeen (29%) patients experienced a &gt;20% treatment-emergent decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline, including 14 (23%) whose serum creatinine level crossed from the normal to abnormal range with pre- and post-treatment median (range) values of 1.05 (0.60-1.26) and 1.53 (1.1-3.31), respectively, with the majority reverting back to the normal range upon drug discontinuation. Conclusion In routine practice, momelotinib therapy might alleviate anemia in about a quarter of JAKi-naive patients with MF but is associated with non-trivial rates of treatment-emergent peripheral neuropathy and nephropathy. The latter appeared to be reversible on treatment discontinuation. Our novel observation regarding association of anemia response with SH2B3 mutation requires validation in a larger group of informative cases.

Abstract Background: TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms (MNs) represent one of the most lethal subgroups of blood cancers. The World Health Organization (WHO-5) recognize TP53-mutated (TP53mut) myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and International Consensus Classification (ICC) recognize TP53mut MDS and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) as distinct disease entities, acknowledging their dismal prognosis and the urgent need for novel therapeutic strategies. However, key discrepancies exist between the classifications, creating uncertainty in diagnosis, influencing therapeutic decisions, and complicating clinical trial enrolment for patients with uniformly poor survival. Importantly, neither classifications included TP53-mutated myelofibrosis (MF), other myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), and MDS/MPN overlap syndromes, despite growing evidence that these cases carry similar adverse outcomes. To address these critical gaps, we conducted a comprehensive analysis across the full spectrum of TP53-mutated MN. Methods: We included TP53mut cases with variant allele frequency (VAF ≥2%) of AML, MDS, MDS/MPN overlap, myelofibrosis and other MPN managed at the Mayo clinic (Rochester, USA) and Local Health Network in South Australia (Australia). Cases were classified according to the revised 4th edition WHO classification (WHO-4R). Biallelic TP53 loss was defined as: (i) ≥2 mutations with VAF ≥2%; (ii) single TP53mut with VAF ≥2% plus 17p loss on karyotype, FISH, or SNP array; or (iii) single TP53mut with VAF ≥50% with or without 17p loss. Monoallelic loss was defined as a single TP53mut with VAF &lt;50% without 17p loss or copy neutral loss of heterozygosity. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) from diagnosis, censored at allogeneic transplantation. Conditional inference tree analysis was performed to define the effect of individual predictors on OS. Results: We identified 853 TP53mutMN cases including WHO-4R-defined AML (BM/PB blasts ≥20%, n=314; 36.8%), MDS with excess blasts-2 (EB-2; BM 10–19% or PB 5–19%, n=129; 15.1%), MDS-EB-1 (BM 5–9% or PB 2–4%, n=100; 11.7%), and MDS with low blasts (LB; BM &lt;5% and PB &lt;1%, n=228; 26.7%). MF included chronic phase (MF-CP, n=48; 5.6%), accelerated phase (MF-AP, n=7; 0.8%), and blast phase (MF-BP, n=17; 2.0%). Additional cases comprised other MPN-chronic phase (n=3, 0.4%) and MDS/MPN overlap syndromes (n=7, 0.8%). Of 848 evaluable TP53mut MN, 616 (72.6%) harbored biallelic TP53 loss and 232 (27.4%) had monoallelic loss, with 42.4% (n=98) of monoallelic cases harboring a complex karyotype (CK). Biallelic loss was highly prevalent in AML (83.1%), MDS (70.4%), and MDS/MPN overlap (71.4%), but was less frequent in cases with MPN (33.3%) and MF-chronic phase (25.0%). Across the spectrum, the frequency of biallelic loss increased stepwise with disease progression, rising from MDS-LB (62.8%) to MDS-EB1 (76.0%), MDS-EB2 (79.5%), AML (83.1%), and MF-AP/BP (79.2%) (P&lt;0.0001). In multivariable analysis, WHO-4R category, TP53mut VAF, biallelic loss and CK were independent predictors of poor survival in TP53mut MN. Conditional inference tree analysis stratified the cohort into seven prognostic groups with distinct median OS: (1) AML, MF-BP/AP, and MDS/MPN overlap regardless of mono/biallelic and CK status (n=335, 39.7%; median OS 4.0 months); (2) MDS-EB1/EB2 with biallelic loss or monoallelic plus CK (n=212, 25.1%; 7.2 months); (3) MDS-LB, MF-CP and MPN with CK (n=156, 18.5%, OS 10.2 months); (4) biallelic MDS-LB (n=28, 3.3%; OS 15.6 months), (5) monoallelic MDS-EB1/EB2 without CK (n=20, 2.4%; OS 26.2 months), (6) monoallelic MDS-LB without CK (n=57, 6.7%; OS 33.4 months), and (7) MF-CP and other MPN without CK (n=36, 4.3%; OS 37.0 months). This analysis defines a clear stepwise risk gradient, identifying subsets with extremely poor prognosis versus a relatively indolent disease. Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate the prognostic impact of TP53mut MN across the entire MN spectrum, providing a framework for future refinement of TP53-driven disease classification. Key findings include: (i) MF-AP/BP and MDS/MPN overlap exhibit survival outcomes as dismal as AML, irrespective of the TP53 allele status; and (ii) complex karyotype is a surrogate for “biallelic equivalent”, refining risk interpretation in monoallelic cases. Overall, our study defines seven prognostic subgroups spanning all TP53mut MN, offering a foundation for risk-adapted clinical trial design and future classification updates.

Abstract Background: Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorder caused by PIGA mutations, resulting in complement-mediated hemolysis. Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are also clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorders driven by mutations in JAK2, CALR, or MPL, and include polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). Although the coexistence of PNH and and MPN is rare, both entities are associated with anemia and an increased risk of thrombosis. The main objectives of the current study were to characterize the clinical phenotype, and evaluate treatment outcomes, including response to complement inhibition in patients with treatment-requiring PNH and MPN. Methods A Mayo Clinic database search was conducted following Institutional Review Board approval to identify patients with PNH and MPN. Between January 2000 and June 2025, 11 patients had a pathologic diagnosis of MPN per the International Consensus Classification, and PNH requiring therapy. Clinical features, including hemolysis and/or thrombosis, and therapeutic interventions were recorded. Results The study cohort included 11 patients (median age 63 years; 73% male) with MPN (6 with PMF, 3 ET, 1 post-ET MF, 1 post-PV MF) in whom PNH was diagnosed concurrently (n=5), or at a median of 9 years (range: 2-15) after MPN diagnosis (n=6). In 9 of 11 patients (82%), PNH workup was initiated due to hemolytic anemia, while in 2 patients (18%), it was prompted by splanchnic vein thrombosis. Transfusion-dependent anemia was present in 6 patients (54%). PNH clone size [median (range)] was 0.58% (0–10.96%) in red blood cells, 18.82% (0–91.2%) in granulocytes, and 23.27% (0–98.8%) in monocytes. MPN driver mutations were evaluated in 8 cases and identified mutations in JAK2 (n=3), CALR (n=4), and MPL (n=1); two additional cases were negative for JAK2 mutations. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) was performed in 6 patients and identified ASXL1, ZRSR2, and SF3B1 mutations in one case each. Cytogenetic analysis (n =10) demonstrated an abnormal karyotype in 3 patients (30%), all of which were categorized as favorable risk. First-line treatment for PNH included complement inhibitors in 9 patients (82%), with eculizumab (n=8), or ravulizumab (n=1). Hemolysis was controlled in only 2 of 9 (22%) patients; one patient treated with eculizumab achieved durable anemia response for five years, while another patient achieved transfusion-independence within three months of eculizumab initiation. 3 patients underwent allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT); 2 achieved remission with follow up exceeding 5 years, while the third patient experienced PNH recurrence five months after transplant. The latter received donor lymphocyte infusions and eculizumab was re-initiated resulting in eradication of the PNH clone. Among patients treated with complement inhibitor and not transplanted, 4 of 6 (67%) were transfusion-dependent at last follow-up. Notably, one patient with PNH clone size of 91.19 % in granulocytes, had ongoing hemolysis despite dual complement blockade with ravulizumab and danicopan. Treatment for MPN included hydroxyurea (n=5), ruxolitinib (n=4), pacritinib (n=1), and erythropoiesis stimulating agents (n=4). Additionally, two patients each received antiplatelet therapy alone, anticoagulation alone, or a combination of antiplatelet and anticoagulation. During a median follow-up of 8.4 years (range, 0.6-19), 2 patients (18%) experienced venous thrombosis, and 1 patient (9%) had progression to myelodysplastic syndrome. 5 patients (45.5%) died, with sepsis as the cause of death in 3 cases. The incidence rate of thrombosis was 22 events per 1,000 person-years. Recurrent thrombosis was observed in a 68-year-old male with CALR-mutated MF and PNH clone size of 14.65% in granulocytes, with history of portal vein thrombosis. Despite treatment with eculizumab and low-molecular weight heparin, he developed thrombosis involving the inferior vena cava, common iliac, and hepatic veins. The second event occurred in a patient who developed deep venous thrombosis, while in remission and not on anticoagulation. Conclusion The current study represents the largest series of patients with treatment-requiring PNH and MPN. It reveals a predominance of MF patients, particularly among those harboring CALRmutations, and underlines suboptimal efficacy of complement inhibitor therapy in this patient population.

Abstract Background Blast transformation (BT) occurs in approximately 15-30% of patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) and remains a leading cause of death. Allogeneic stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is currently the only treatment modality with the potential to cure the disease or prolong survival. Optimal timing of ASCT is critical for maximizing benefit while minimizing risks. To that end, contemporary risk models have focused on the prognostic relevance of individual, as opposed to concurrent mutations. In the current study, we looked into the possibility of prognostic prominence from concurrent mutations in predicting BT in CMML. Methods CMML diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (Arber et al. Blood 2022; 140:1200). A machine-learning hierarchical clustering algorithm was developed and tailored for patient stratification using survival outcomes and co-expression of genomic alterations. To reduce complexity and improve interpretability, we generalized each cluster using existing rule induction algorithms, including the in Trees framework and JRip. The final output was a set of mutation-based cluster definitions, each representing a distinct patient subgroup with similar survival trajectories. Competing risk analysis and cumulative incidence functions were used in downstream evaluation to validate the clinical distinctiveness of the clusters. For all survival analysis, patients were censored at the time of ASCT. Time-to-BT was calculated from the date of diagnosis to the date of BT or ASCT or last contact. BT-free-survival was calculated from the date of diagnosis to the date of BT, ASCT, death, or last contact. Results The core study cohort included 605 patients from the Mayo Clinic, USA, and the external validation cohort 501 patients from Humanitas Cancer Center, Milan, Italy. Using the patient cohort from the Mayo Clinic, machine-learning algorithms identified five molecular clusters with 3-year blast transformation (BT) rates ranging from 0% to 100% (AUC at 3 years 0.78): the order of molecular signature assignment (probability of BT/death from another cause) was i) PHF6MUT/ASXL1WT (0%/17% at 3 years; N=32), ii) NPM1MUT OR BCORMUT/ASXL1MUT OR SETBP1MUT/NRASMUT (48%/30% at 1 year; N=24), iii) RUNX1MUT/ASXL1MUT OR SRSF2MUT/NRASMUT OR EZH2MUT/ASXL1MUT OR SETBP1MUT OR BCORMUT (31%/55% at 3 years; N=132), iv) ASXL1MUT/TET2MUT OR DNMT3AMUT OR JAK2MUT (24%/28% at 3 years; N=123), and v) all other permutations (10%/40% at 3 years; N=294) [Figure 1]. Additional analysis confirmed significant differences in survival between RUNX1MUT/ASXL1MUT vs. RUNX1MUT/ASXL1WT (p&lt;0.01) OR RUNX1WT/ASXL1WT (p&lt;0.01) OR RUNX1WT/ASXL1MUT (p=0.038) [Figure 2]. Similar patterns of differences in survival were also documented for NRAS/SETBP1, ASXL1/EZH2, and NRAS/SRSF2 mutation combinations (Figure 2). A subsequent Cox regression analysis confirmed independent prognostic contributions from “PHF6MUT/ASXL1WT” (HR 5.43e-10; p&lt;0.01), NPM1MUT (HR 26.7; p&lt;0.01), “SETBP1MUT/NRASMUT” (HR 12.7; p&lt;0.01), BCORMUT(HR 5.8; p&lt;0.01), “RUNX1MUT/ASXL1MUT” (HR 2.3, p&lt;0.01), JAK2MUT (HR 2.1; p&lt;0.01), and “ASXL1MUT/TET2MUT” (HR 1.7; p=0.02). The prognostic relevance of “SETBP1MUT/NRASMUT”, “RUNX1MUT/ASXL1MUT”, NPM1MUT, and BCORMUT was validated in the external cohort from Italy (N=501). In the Mayo Clinic cohort, presence of any of the latter mutations was associated with 1-, 3-, and 5-year BT (death from other cause) rates of 27% (21%), 44% (49%), and 44% (51%), respectively (Figure 3). The corresponding values in the absence of high risk mutations were 7% (15%), 15% (37%), and 18% (52%) [Gray's p value &lt;0.01 for both BT and death from another cause; Figure 3]. Similarly, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year BT (death from another cause) rates in the Italian cohort were 21% (19%), 37% (47%), and 42% (54%) in the presence and 8% (14%), 20% (35%), and 24% (45%) in the absence of high-risk mutations (Gray's p value &lt;0.01 for BT and 0.18 for death from another cause; Figure 4). Conclusions In the current study, machine-learning algorithms enabled the discovery of concurrent mutations in CMML that were shown to be prognostically more significant than their individual constituents. Such prognostic interaction might have contributed to some of the discrepancies noted in current literature regarding the prognostic relevance of certain mutations in CMML and should be accounted for in the development of future risk models.

Abstract Background Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is an easily accessible diagnostic test that is underutilized as a prognostic marker, despite substantial supporting evidence in cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and helathy individuals (Pilling et al. PLoS One 2028;13:e0203504). The association between increased RDW and incident acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has long been suggested in healthy volunteers (Abelson et al. Nature 2019;559:400). We looked into a similar phenomenon in patients with polycythemia vera (PV) or essential thrombocythemia (ET) in large discovery and validation cohorts. Methods A machine learning (ML) approach was used to identify baseline clinical and laboratory parameters that were predictive of leukemic transformation (LT) and develop a predictive model in a large discovery cohort of PV and ET, obtained from electronic medical records of the Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS; Tel-Aviv, Israel). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cutoff points for RDW and other continuous variables. Mayo Clinic databases (Rochester, MN, USA) for patients with PV and ET were utilized as validation cohorts. Identification of study patients in the latter was according to the International Consensus Classification (Arber et al. Blood 2022; 140:1200) while in the discovery cohort was based on presence of ICD-9 codes associated with documentation of disease-specific driver mutations or treatment records that are consistent. Statistical analyses were performed using the R statistical software 4.4.2 (November, 2024) (Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) or JMP Pro 18.0.0 software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results The discovery cohorts from Israel included 4,592 patients with PV (median age 63 yesrs; 53% males) and 5,968 with ET (median age 61 yesrs; males 40%). The validation cohorts from the Mayo Clinic included 633 PV (median 65 years; 51% males) and 634 ET (median 60 years; females 64%) patients that were informative for RDW. In the discovery cohorts, median follow-up (incident AML) was 6.1 years (N=186; 4.1%) in PV and 6.1 years (N=85; 1.4%) in ET. The corresponding values for the validation cohorts were 6.6 years (N=24; 3.8%) in PV and 7.0 years (N=22; 3.5%) in ET. Discovery cohort analyses Covariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis was utilized to estimate associations between LT and several clinical variables followed by machine learning pipeline to predict LT in a given timeframe. Conversion from continuous to binary variables was accompliched by ROC analysis. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) application enabled selection of top-ranked features that included RDW &gt;15.5 (HR 3.2, 1.1-9.5; p=0.03), age &gt;60 years (HR 2.9, 1.4-5.9; p&lt;0.01), and LDH &gt;1.5 x UNL (HR 4.0 (1.6-10.0; p&lt;0.01). A similar analysis in ET also identified RDW &gt;15.5 (p&lt;0.01), age &gt;60 years (p=0.01) as well as male sex (p=0.03) as independent risk factors for LT. Subseqent risk models based on these risk factors were externally validated and enabled robust risk stratification with 10-20 year AUCs rangening from 0.75 to 0.81. Validation cohorts analyses The indpendent predictive value of increased RDW observed in the discovery cohort was confirmed in the validation cohorts for both PV and ET and further gender-specified: female/male RDW ≥16.4/15.8 in PV (HR 7.9, 1.9-33.8) and ≥16.1/14.4 in ET (HR 5.1, 2.2-11.9). Also confirmed were the additional prognostic contributions of age ≥60 years (HR 3.8, 1.3-10.9) and LDH &gt;1.5 x UNL (HR 3.9, 1.6-9.4), in PV, while no other clinical risk factor showed RDW-independent prognostic relevance in ET. The prognostic impact of RDW in ET was most apparent in females (p&lt;0.01), as opposed to males (p=0.32) while the effect was equally significant in PV. In multivariable analysis that included previously recognized high risk mutations in PV (SRSF2) and ET (SF3B1), both RDW and mutations sustained significance (p&lt;0.05). Conclusion The current study identifies higher RDW as a key risk factor for LT in both PV and ET, independent of other clinical or genetic risk factors. Possible underlying mechanisms include increased RDW as a marker of long-term pre-leukemic clones with sub-clinical ineffective erythropoiesis or an associated pro-leukemic inflammatory state.

Abstract Objective Gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are common in systemic mastocytosis (SM). We hereby report the clinicopathologic and molecular features of GI mastocytosis. Methods The study includes 104 patients with suspected SM. Of 258 GI biopsy ­specimens, 33 (20 patients, 19%) were mastocytosis-positive, with 19 (16 patients) initially missed. Results Tryptase (n = 29) was weakly positive/negative in two-thirds of the mastocytosis-positive GI biopsy specimens. Additional immunohistochemistry (n = 23) showed positive mast cell expression for CD30 (n = 2), CD123 (n = 7), and PD-L1 (n = 12), as well as increased PD-1–positive cells (n = 4). Sixty patients had positive bone marrow (BM) for SM (SM-BM+), including 19 with positive GI biopsy specimens (SM-GI+). Almost all (43/44) SM-BM– patients were SM-GI–. The SM-GI vs SM-BM status showed high positive predictive value (95%) and specificity (98%). Patients with SM with mastocytosis-positive vs mastocytosis-negative GI biopsy specimens had higher serum tryptase levels (P = .04). KIT D816V mutation was detected in 7 of 13 and 12 of 13 mastocytosis-positive GI biopsy specimens using allele-specific polymerase chain reaction and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR), respectively. Conclusions GI mastocytosis is highly predictive of SM in BM; however, most SM-BM+ patients are SM-GI–. The SM-BM– patients are very unlikely to be SM-GI+. Because GI neoplastic mast cells are often tryptase negative, diagnostic evaluation should include CD117 and CD25 immunohistochemistry, as well as KIT D816V mutation analysis by ddPCR as needed.