Citations

11177 Background: Early detection of recurrence after curative-intent treatment is a critical priority, traditional imaging often detects relapse when disease burden is high, potentially limiting treatment efficacy. ctDNA has emerged as an established prognostic biomarker for molecular residual disease (MRD) detection and early relapse. We performed a real-world meta-analysis on published datasets that utilized personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA testing to assess its performance across tumor types and clinical management approaches. Methods: Real-world studies published from December 2022 to December 2025 using the personalized, tumor-informed Signatera ctDNA assay (Natera, Inc.) were included. Eligibility required ctDNA assessment in the MRD (2–16 weeks post-surgery (histology dependent)/pre adjuvant therapy (ACT)) and/or surveillance (post-ACT/end of the MRD window if no ACT was given) settings, with outcomes stratified by ctDNA status and hazard ratios (HR) reported from univariable or time-dependent Cox regression analysis. Exclusions included: clinical trials, biobanks, metastatic disease treated with palliative intent, case reports, reviews, editorials, or commentaries. Clinical outcomes were harmonized into a composite event-free survival (EFS) endpoint (time to recurrence, progression, or death). Pooled HRs and 95% CIs were estimated using random and fixed effects models and heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I 2 and Cochran’s Q test. Median lead time from ctDNA-positivity to radiographic or clinical recurrence was summarized when available. Results: We identified 18 eligible publications comprising 3,004 unique patients across 15 solid tumor types. During the MRD window, ctDNA positivity was associated with a significantly increased risk of an EFS event compared with ctDNA negativity (pooled HR: 8.15; 95% CI: 6.12–10.85, I 2 = 0.00%, P = 0.844, n = 13). During the surveillance window, inclusive of post-definitive treatment, ctDNA positivity conferred an even greater EFS risk (pooled HR: 18.30; 95% CI: 14.17–23.65, I 2 = 0%, P = 0.911 for heterogeneity, n = 16). Across studies, ctDNA detection during surveillance preceded radiographic or clinical recurrence by a median of 3.20 months (95% CI: 2.50-4.10, P < 0.0001, n = 10), although this varied substantially by study/tumor type (I 2 = 80.9%). Conclusions: In this pan-cancer real-world meta-analysis, ctDNA positivity assessed using a tumor-informed assay was highly prognostic following curative-intent therapy at all timepoints evaluated with low heterogeneity between studies. These findings support the broad clinical utility of tumor-informed ctDNA testing for post-treatment risk stratification and longitudinal disease monitoring across solid tumors.

Introduction: NPM1 mutations, seen in up to 30% of adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), often co-occur with FLT3 internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD). Measurable residual disease (MRD) testing before allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (alloHCT) for persistence of mutated NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD can identify patients with AML in complete remission (CR) at highest risk of relapse and death. Quantitative RT-PCR assays are currently recommended for NPM1 MRD testing, while FLT3-ITD MRD testing is DNA-based using next generation sequencing (NGS). DNA-based NGS assays for mutated NPM1 MRD testing may have several advantages but require validation. We performed NPM1 MRD detection in blood collected from patients with AML during first CR (CR1) prior to alloHCT on a subset of patients from the Pre-MEASURE study (PMID: 36881031) using a highly-sensitive, commercially available DNA-based NPM1 NGS MRD assay. Methods: Of the 531 patients aged 18 or older from the Pre-MEASURE study who received an alloHCT for NPM1mutated AML during CR1 at a CIBMTR reporting site in the USA between the years of 2013-2019, a subset of 190 were randomly selected to be included in this analysis. A commercially available research testing kit (IVS, Invivoscribe, San Diego, CA), which can detect DNA-based NPM1 MRD, was used to establish a workflow following clinical testing standards and validated to detect NPM1 insertion variants down to a variant allele fraction (VAF) of at least 0.005%. Results were compared to those previously reported using an anchored multiplex PCR-based (AMP) targeted NGS assay (detection limit 0.01%) and FLT3-ITD MRD results, where applicable. Overall survival (OS) and cumulative incidence of relapse were estimated with the day of transplant as time 0 using Kaplan-Meier estimation (log-rank tests), Fine and Gray model, and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: NPM1 NGS MRD testing was successful for 186 (98%) patients, of which 48 (26%) relapsed (median: 4.0 months; range: 0.7-52.5) and 64 (34%) died (median: 9.7 months; range: 0.4-58.9) post-alloHCT. The IVS assay detected NPM1 insertion variants in 71 patients with a median VAF of 0.0026% (range:0.0002-2.1%). Using a VAF threshold of ≥0.01% for MRD positivity, the IVS test showed that 24 patients tested positive for NPM1 MRD pre-alloHCT, which was associated with significantly increased rates of relapse (52% vs 20% at 3yrs; HR=4.3; P&lt;0.001) and decreased OS (34% vs 71% at 3yrs; HR=3.6; P&lt;0.001) compared to testing negative, in close alignment with those previously reported using the AMP assay. After removing the VAF threshold, an additional 47 patients were classified as NPM1 MRD positive, which remained associated with increased rates of relapse (40% vs 15% at 3yrs; HR=3.4; P&lt;0.001) and decreased OS (50% vs 75% at 3yrs; HR=2.9; P&lt;0.001). In multivariable analysis, residual NPM1 MRD burden prior to alloHCT was associated with risk of relapse and death in a dose-dependent manner. Patients were further subdivided based on their reported FLT3-ITD mutational status at baseline. Increased risk of relapse was seen for NPM1 MRD positive patients regardless of baseline FLT3-ITD. 123 (66%) patients were co-mutated for FLT3-ITD at baseline and previously tested for FLT3-ITD MRD using the IVS assay (PMID: 38696205). Defining MRD based on the presence of NPM1 vs NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD revealed equivalent levels of relapse (45% vs 44%) and OS (45% vs 46%) at 3 years, with NPM1 MRD evaluation identifying 5 additional relapses. These results were confirmed in the full Pre-MEASURE cohort (n=317) using the AMP assay. NPM1 MRD positive patients receiving nonmyeloablative conditioning or reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) without melphalan (mel) had increased risk of relapse or death compared to patients receiving myeloablative conditioning or RIC with mel, regardless of FLT3-ITD co-mutational status (3yrs: relapse 87% vs 55%, P=0.006; OS 15% vs 42%, P=0.013). Conclusions: In patients with NPM1 mutated AML from the Pre-MEASURE study, we show that detection of residual NPM1 variants in pre-transplant blood during CR1 using a highly sensitive DNA-based assay is associated in a dose-dependent manner with a significantly increased risk of relapse and death after allo-HCT, which can be mitigated in part by conditioning regimen. In patients co-mutated for both FLT3-ITD and NPM1 at diagnosis, NPM1 should be prioritized as a target for NGS-MRD if only one test is available.