Citations

Background: Multiple myeloma (MM) occurs most commonly among the older population, with a median age of 69 years at diagnosis. Advanced age has been shown to negatively affect prognosis and limit treatment options for patients with hematologic malignancies, including MM. Idecabtagene vicleucel (ide-cel, bb2121), a BCMA-directed CAR T cell therapy, demonstrated deep and durable responses in the pivotal phase 2 KarMMa study of patients with triple-class exposed relapsed and refractory MM (RRMM; Munshi et al. J Clin Oncol. 2020;38[suppl, abstr]:8503). The overall response rate (ORR), complete response (CR) rate, median duration of response (DOR), and median progression-free survival (PFS) were 73%, 33%, 10.7 months, and 8.8 months, respectively, among all 128 patients treated across the target dose levels of 150-450 × 106 CAR+ T cells, and 82%, 39%, 11.3 months, and 12.1 months at the highest target dose of 450 × 106 CAR+ T cells. The safety profile of ide-cel was consistent with the mechanism of action of CAR T cell therapies, with the most common toxicities across all dose levels being cytopenia (97%) and cytokine release syndrome (84%). In the present analyses, the efficacy and safety of ide-cel in elderly patients in the KarMMa study were evaluated. Methods: Patients enrolled in the KarMMa trial (NCT03361748) were required to have ≥3 prior lines of therapy, including an immunomodulatory drug, a proteasome inhibitor, and an anti-CD38 antibody, and were refractory to their last regimen per International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) criteria. Patients received ide-cel at target doses of 150, 300, or 450 × 106 CAR+ T cells after 3 days of lymphodepletion with cyclophosphamide (300 mg/m2/day) and fludarabine (30 mg/m2/day) followed by 2 days of rest. The primary endpoint was ORR, and the key secondary endpoint was CR rate. Additional secondary endpoints included DOR, PFS, and safety. Patients were classified into ≥65 years and ≥70 years subgroups for analysis. Responses were assessed according to IMWG guidelines, and DOR and PFS were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Results: Of the 128 patients treated with ide-cel, 45 (35%) were aged ≥65 years and 20 (16%) were aged ≥70 years. The median age within these age groups was 69 years (range, 65-78) and 73 years (range, 70-78), the median number of prior antimyeloma regimens was 6 and 5, and the median time since initial diagnosis was 6.7 years and 6.1 years, respectively. Baseline characteristics were generally similar between age groups with the exception of tumor burden. Response rates for both age groups were comparable with those of the overall ide-cel treated population, with ORRs of 84% to 90% and CR rates of 31% to 35% (Table). Likewise, median DOR among responders in both age groups (10.9 months in patients aged ≥65 years and 11.0 months in patients aged ≥70 years) was similar to that of the overall ide-cel treated population. Median PFS was 8.6 months (95% CI, 4.9-12.2) in patients aged ≥65 years and 10.2 months (95% CI, 3.1-12.3) in patients aged ≥70 years. At the time of analysis, overall survival data were still immature. No new safety signals were observed in either of the older age groups compared with those in the overall ide-cel treated population (Table). Conclusions: These results demonstrate deep and durable responses with ide-cel treatment together with a manageable safety profile in triple-class exposed patients with RRMM aged ≥65 years and ≥70 years. Outcomes were comparable with those observed in the overall ide-cel treated population. These data suggest ide-cel is safe and effective in older patients and provide further evidence supporting ide-cel as a promising treatment option in RRMM. Figure 1 Disclosures Berdeja: Karyopharm: Consultancy; Kite Pharma: Consultancy; Cellularity: Research Funding; Acetylon: Research Funding; Genentech, Inc.: Research Funding; Prothena: Consultancy; Teva: Research Funding; Servier: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy, Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Lilly: Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Research Funding; EMD Sorono: Research Funding; BMS: Consultancy, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Glenmark: Research Funding; Kesios: Research Funding; Legend: Consultancy; Vivolux: Research Funding; Abbvie: Research Funding; Bioclinica: Consultancy; Bluebird: Research Funding; CURIS: Research Funding; Constellation: Research Funding; CRISPR Therapeutics: Consultancy, Research Funding; Poseida: Research Funding. Raje:Takeda: Consultancy; Karyopharm: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy; Immuneel: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Bristol Myers Squibb: Consultancy; Immuneel: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Caribou: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; bluebird bio: Consultancy, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy. Siegel:Karyopharma: Consultancy, Honoraria; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Merck: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Celulatiry: Consultancy. Lin:Gamida Cells: Consultancy; Takeda: Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Novartis: Consultancy; Vineti: Consultancy; Kite, a Gilead Company: Consultancy, Research Funding; Sorrento: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Merck: Research Funding; Legend BioTech: Consultancy; Juno: Consultancy; Bluebird Bio: Consultancy, Research Funding. Anderson:Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; GSK: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Rodriguez-Otero:Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Oncopeptides: Consultancy, Honoraria; Abbvie: Consultancy, Honoraria; Kite: Consultancy, Honoraria; GlaxoSmithKline: Consultancy, Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company, Honoraria; Medscape: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene/Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company). Manier:Amgen: Consultancy, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); Celgene/BMS: Consultancy, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company), Research Funding; Jenssen: Consultancy, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company), Research Funding; GSK: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy. Einsele:Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; GlaxoSmithKline: Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Cavo:Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; GlaxoSmithKline: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Karyopharm: Honoraria; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Travel accomodations, Speakers Bureau; AbbVie: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Travel accomodations, Speakers Bureau; Sanofi: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; BMS: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau. Truppel-Hartmann:bluebird bio, Inc: Current Employment, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); F. Hoffmann La Roche: Current equity holder in publicly-traded company, Ended employment in the past 24 months. Rowe:Bristol-Myers Squibb: Current Employment. Sanford:BMS: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Wang:Bristol Myers Squibb: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Campbell:BMS: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Jagannath:Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Legend Biotech: Consultancy, Honoraria; Karyopharm: Consultancy, Honoraria; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria.

Introduction: Failure to engraft donor cells is a devastating complication after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) while full engraftment remains a challenge in some recipients. Therapeutic approaches, such as recombinant hematopoietic growth factors, salvage only a minority of patients leaving affected patients at risk for recurrent infections and multiple blood products transfusions. PLX-R18 cells have been shown to mitigate bone marrow failure in rodent and non-human primate models. Further, these human placenta-derived mesenchymal-like adherent stromal cells secrete many cytokines after intramuscular (IM) injection that have been shown to stimulate growth and migration of bone marrow cells in vitro, e.g. MCP-1, IL-6, and IL-8. The initial results of the first cohort of this phase I trial were previously reported (ASH 2018 abstract 3379). Methods: Enrollment for this multi-center, open label, dose-escalation, phase I trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03002519) began in October 2017. Eligibility criteria included patients age ≥18 years who underwent either autologous (auto) or allogeneic (allo) HCT but suffered from incomplete hematopoietic recovery at least 3 months post-transplant, defined as failure to maintain either hemoglobin (Hb) >8g/dL and/or neutrophil count (ANC) >1,000/μL and/or platelet (PLT) count >50,000/μL. Other eligibility criteria included no evidence of underlying malignancy at time of enrollment, no active infection and no evidence of grade 3-4 acute or severe chronic GvHD. Subjects were enrolled into 3 dose-escalating cohorts: low-dose at 1M cells/kg (n=3), intermediate-dose at 2M cells/kg (n=6), and high-dose at 4M cells/kg (n=10). The specified dose of PLX-R18 cells was injected IM in multiple locations and given twice, 1 week apart. Cohorts were recruited sequentially, and progression to the next cohort was based on the safety assessment of its predecessor. Adverse event grading used the NCI CTCAE criteria. As of July 2020, all patients in cohorts 1 and 2 (3 & 6 patients, respectively) and 10 patients in cohort 3 were treated. Data were analyzed using the lmerTest package (ver. 3.1.0) in R (ver. 3.6.1) to produce baseline-adjusted least square means. As study is in progress and data collection ongoing, not all subjects have data on all parameters for all time points. Results: Data on 19 subjects (29-75 yrs) with either allo (n=17) or auto (n=2) HCT are reported herein. Not all patients reached the 9 month time point. Four patients died while on study and 2 withdrew consent within the 1 year follow up period. All deaths and other severe adverse events (SAEs) occurred due to progression of primary disease and were assessed as not related by investigators and sponsor. Most frequent related AEs were injection-site reactions. The table summarizes number of patients who improved from below the critical level, as defined above, at day 0 to above the critical level for a sustained period. Only those patients that were below the critical blood levels at day 0 are shown. To date, the majority of such patients improved to above the critical level after treatment. For example, 9 patients had ANC <1000/μL at day 0. Of the 4 patients for which data currently exists, all improved to ≥1000/μL at 9 months. The plots show changes in Hb, ANC and PLT up to 9 months following treatment. The dashed lines represent respective critical levels. Overall, there was improvement in the 3 parameters, with the greatest improvement observed in patients receiving the predicted optimal dose of 4M cells/kg. In this cohort, Hb levels increased from 9.29±0.5 to 13.19±1.2 (p=0.0019), ANC increased from 1.09±0.6 to 5.13±1.7 (p=0.018) and PLT increased from 45.7±10 to 175.9±28 (p=0.000012). Conclusions: Treatment with PLX-R18 is safe, well-tolerated and clearly effective in some patients. The most frequent AEs were reversible injection site reactions, all without sequelae. An overall improvement was observed in most patients, and among the high-dose cohort clinically impressive improvements in Hb, ANC and PLT were observed. The trial continues to follow up on patients. Upon completion, a large phase II trial, using the optimal dose, is considered for the same indication. Other attractive clinical areas for PLX-R18 therapy include acute radiation syndrome, bone marrow failure, aplastic anemia, myelofibrosis and with HCT as a "pan" cytokine to enhance rapid count recovery in all cells lines. Figure Disclosures Lazarus: Pluristem ltd: Consultancy. McGuirk:Astellas: Research Funding; Bellicum Pharmaceutical: Research Funding; Gamida Cell: Research Funding; Pluristem Ltd: Research Funding; Kite Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Allo Vir: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Juno Therapeutics: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Fresenius Biotech: Research Funding. Rowley:AbbVie: Current equity holder in publicly-traded company; FATE Therapeutics: Consultancy. Ofir:Pluristem: Current Employment. Shani:Pluristem ltd: Current Employment. Rowe:Pluristem ltd: Consultancy.

CT053 comprises autologous T cells genetically modified with a second-generation chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) incorporating a fully human B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA)-specific single-chain fragment variant (25C2) with high binding affinity. Twenty-four subjects have been treated in phase 1 studies with an 87.5% overall response rate (ORR), 79.2% complete response (CR), and a median duration of response of 21.8 months without inducing immunogenicity [Blood (2019) 134 (Supplement_1): 4435]. Here we present the ongoing phase 1b/2 study (LUMMICAR-2) conducted in North America (NCT03915184) to evaluate safety and clinical efficacy. Eligible subjects with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) had received ≥3 prior lines of therapy including a proteasome inhibitor (PI), an immunomodulatory drug (IMiD), and an anti-CD38 antibody, and had measurable disease per International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) criteria. All subjects received a lymphodepletion regimen of cyclophosphamide (500 mg/m2/day ×2 days) and fludarabine (25 mg/m2/ day × 3 days). A single infusion of CT053 at the targeted 1.5-3.0×108 CAR+ T-cell dose was administered after lymphodepletion. Primary objectives for phase 1b were to evaluate the safety and tolerability of CT053 and to identify the recommended phase 2 dose. Adverse events (AEs) were graded using CTCAE, v5.0; cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and neurotoxicity were graded according to ASTCT CRS consensus grading system (Lee DW et al, 2019). The response was assessed per 2016 IMWG criteria, and minimal residual disease (MRD) was assessed by next generation flow cytometry or sequencing. As of July 28, 2020, 20 subjects have enrolled, and 14 subjects have received CT053 infusion in the phase 1b portion of the study, including 8 subjects who received 1.5-1.8×108 CAR+ T cells while 6 subjects received 2.5-3.0×108 CAR+ T cells. The treated subjects had a median age of 59 years (range 42-73), had received a median of 6 (range 3-11) prior lines of treatment, 93% were triple refractory to a PI, IMiD, and anti-CD38 antibody, and 64% were penta-refractory. In addition, 36% of the subjects had extramedullary disease at baseline, and 64% had high-risk cytogenetics. All subjects received bridging therapy. The most common ≥ grade 3 AE was hematological toxicity. All subjects experienced ≥ grade 3 neutropenia (100%) and leukopenia (100%), and 36% of subjects had ≥ grade 3 thrombocytopenia within 30 days of treatment. No grade 3 or higher CRS or neurotoxicity was observed. Twelve of 14 subjects (86%) experienced grade 1 or 2 CRS, including 2 subjects who experienced grade 2 CRS and 1 subject who had grade 2 neurotoxicity. CRS events had a generally predictable time to onset, occurring at a median of 2 days post infusion with a median duration of 4 days (range 1-6). Two subjects received tocilizumab, and one subject with grade 2 CRS received both tocilizumab and steroids. One subject experienced grade 2 neurotoxicity with complete resolution within 24 hours upon administration of dexamethasone. At the data cutoff, 10 subjects were evaluable for at least two months of efficacy assessment with a median follow-up of 4.5 months (range 2-8). A 100% ORR was observed, with 2 stringent complete responses, 2 CRs, 1 very good partial response, and 5 partial responses. Of the 12 subjects with evaluable bone marrow samples, 11 were MRD-negative at the 10-5 sensitivity level. Responses were independent of baseline bone marrow BCMA expression. CT053 transgene levels showed expansion and persistence in peripheral blood, with peak expansion at 7-14 days after infusion. All subjects showed similar kinetics of rapid declines in serum free light chains and soluble BCMA (sBCMA) levels within 1 month, and continued depletion in sBCMA suggests CT053-mediated pharmacodynamic activity. Serum C-reactive protein and cytokine levels (i.e., IL-6, IFNγ, IL-8, IL-10) increased post-infusion within 7 days and correlated with the onset of CRS symptoms. Collectively, these results demonstrate that CT053 at a target dose of 1.5-3.0×108 CAR+ T cells delivers early and deep responses, including MRD negativity, with an acceptable safety profile in subjects with heavily pretreated relapsed or refractory MM. The promising results from the ongoing LUMMICAR-2 study are consistent with the previous phase 1 studies and support the launch of a pivotal Phase 2 LUMMICAR-2 study. Updated results will be presented at the conference. Disclosures Kumar: Carsgen: Other, Research Funding; Kite Pharma: Consultancy, Research Funding; Oncopeptides: Consultancy, Other: Independent Review Committee; IRC member; Celgene/BMS: Other: Research funding for clinical trials to the institution, Consulting/Advisory Board participation with no personal payments; Genentech/Roche: Other: Research funding for clinical trials to the institution, Consulting/Advisory Board participation with no personal payments; Adaptive Biotechnologies: Consultancy; Janssen Oncology: Other: Research funding for clinical trials to the institution, Consulting/Advisory Board participation with no personal payments; Dr. Reddy's Laboratories: Honoraria; Tenebio: Other, Research Funding; Genecentrix: Consultancy; BMS: Consultancy, Research Funding; AbbVie: Other: Research funding for clinical trials to the institution, Consulting/Advisory Board participation with no personal payments; Amgen: Consultancy, Other: Research funding for clinical trials to the institution, Consulting/Advisory Board participation with no personal payments, Research Funding; MedImmune: Research Funding; Cellectar: Other; Merck: Consultancy, Research Funding; Takeda: Other: Research funding for clinical trials to the institution, Consulting/Advisory Board participation with no personal payments; Sanofi: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy. Baz:Sanofi, Karypharm, Janssen, Celgene: Other: Advisory board; Karyopharm, janssen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Merck, Sanofi, Abbvie Inc.: Research Funding. Orlowski:Amgen, Inc., AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, EcoR1 Capital LLC, Forma Therapeutics, Genzyme, GSK Biologicals, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Janssen Biotech, Juno Therapeutics, Kite Pharma, Legend Biotech USA, Molecular Partners, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.,: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Founder of Asylia Therapeutics, Inc., with associated patents and an equity interest, though this technology does not bear on the current submission.: Current equity holder in private company, Patents & Royalties; STATinMED Research: Consultancy; Sanofi-Aventis, Servier, Takeda Pharmaceuticals North America, Inc.: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Laboratory research funding from BioTheryX, and clinical research funding from CARsgen Therapeutics, Celgene, Exelixis, Janssen Biotech, Sanofi-Aventis, Takeda Pharmaceuticals North America, Inc.: Research Funding. Anderson:Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; GSK: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Ma:CARsgen Therapeutics Corp.: Current Employment. Bilgi:CARsgen Therapeutics Corp.: Other: Current shareholder in the company. Kansagra:Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Bristol Myers Squibb /Celgene, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Pharmacyclics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Karyopharm Therpeutics: Other: Advisory Board. Kapoor:Janssen: Research Funding; Cellectar: Consultancy; Takeda: Honoraria, Research Funding; GlaxoSmithKline: Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria; Amgen: Research Funding; Sanofi: Consultancy, Research Funding. Li:CARsgen Therapeutics Co. LtD: Current Employment, Current equity holder in private company. Brayer:Bristol-Myers Squibb, WindMIL Therapeutics: Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy; Bristol-Myers Squibb, Janssen, Amgen: Speakers Bureau.

Radiation therapy (RT), an integral component of curative treatment for many malignancies, can be administered via an increasing array of techniques. In this review, we summarize the properties and application of different types of RT, specifically, conventional therapy with x-rays, stereotactic body RT, and proton and carbon particle therapies. We highlight how low-linear energy transfer (LET) radiation induces simple DNA lesions that are efficiently repaired by cells, whereas high-LET radiation causes complex DNA lesions that are difficult to repair and that ultimately enhance cancer cell killing. Additionally, we discuss the immunogenicity of radiation-induced tumor death, elucidate the molecular mechanisms by which radiation mounts innate and adaptive immune responses and explore strategies by which we can increase the efficacy of these mechanisms. Understanding the mechanisms by which RT modulates immune signaling and the key players involved in modulating the RT-mediated immune response will help to improve therapeutic efficacy and to identify novel immunomodulatory drugs that will benefit cancer patients undergoing targeted RT.

High-intensity endurance exercise elicits acute cardiac imbalances that may be an important stimulus for adaptive cardiac remodeling. This study highlights that following a bout of high-intensity exercise that is typical of routine day-to-day cycling training, exercise-induced autonomic, biochemical, and functional cardiac imbalances are attenuated in middle-aged relative to young well-trained cyclists. These findings suggest that aging may alter exercise-induced stress stimulus response that initiates cardiac remodeling in Athlete’s Heart.

Scientific societies aiming to foster inclusion of scientists from underrepresented (UR) backgrounds among their membership often delegate primary responsibility for this goal to a diversity-focused committee. The National Science Foundation has funded the creation of the Alliance to Catalyze Change for Equity in STEM Success (ACCESS), a meta-organization bringing together representatives from several such STEM society committees to serve as a hub for a growing community of practice. Our goal is to coordinate efforts to advance inclusive practices by sharing experiences and making synergistic discoveries about what works. ACCESS has analyzed the approaches by which member societies have sought to ensure inclusivity through selection of annual meeting speakers. Here we discuss how inclusive speaker selection fosters better scientific environments for all and identify challenges and promising practices for societies striving to maximize inclusivity of speakers in their scientific programming.

Environmental stressors, such as heat or altitude, elicit dissimilar physiological adaptations to endurance training programs. Whether these differences (i.e., increased hemoglobin mass vs plasma volume) differentially influence performance is debated. We review data in support of our novel hypothesis, which proposes altitude as the preferred environmental training stimulus for elite endurance athletes preparing to compete in temperate, sea-level climates (5°C–18°C).

INTRODUCTION: Readmission and death in cirrhosis are common, expensive, and difficult to predict. Our aim was to evaluate the abilities of multiple artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict clinical outcomes based on variables collected at admission, during hospitalization, and at discharge. METHODS: We used the multicenter North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) cohort of cirrhotic inpatients who are followed up through 90-days postdischarge for readmission and death. We used statistical methods to select variables that are significant for readmission and death and trained 3 AI models, including logistic regression (LR), kernel support vector machine (SVM), and random forest classifiers (RFC), to predict readmission and death. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 10-fold crossvalidation for evaluation to compare sexes. Data were compared with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) at discharge. RESULTS: We included 2,170 patients (57 ± 11 years, MELD 18 ± 7, 61% men, 79% White, and 8% Hispanic). The 30-day and 90-day readmission rates were 28% and 47%, respectively, and 13% died at 90 days. Prediction for 30-day readmission resulted in 0.60 AUC for all patients with RFC, 0.57 AUC with LR for women-only subpopulation, and 0.61 AUC with LR for men-only subpopulation. For 90-day readmission, the highest AUC was achieved with kernel SVM and RFC (AUC = 0.62). We observed higher predictive value when training models with only women (AUC = 0.68 LR) vs men (AUC = 0.62 kernel SVM). Prediction for death resulted in 0.67 AUC for all patients, 0.72 for women-only subpopulation, and 0.69 for men-only subpopulation, all with LR. MELD-Na model AUC was similar to those from the AI models. DISCUSSION: Despite using multiple AI techniques, it is difficult to predict 30- and 90-day readmissions and death in cirrhosis. AI model accuracies were equivalent to models generated using only MELD-Na scores. Additional biomarkers are needed to improve our predictive capability (See also the visual abstract at http://links.lww.com/AJG/B710).

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease–lactate (MELD‐lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in‐hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD‐lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension–related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD‐lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in‐hospital mortality were compared between MELD‐lactate and MELD/MELD‐sodium (MELD‐Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD‐lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD‐lactate had superior discrimination for in‐hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD‐Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD‐lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD‐lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk‐stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD‐lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in‐hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD‐Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.

Alcohol‐associated liver disease (ALD) is a major driver of global liver related morbidity and mortality. There are 2.4 billion drinkers (950 million heavy drinkers) and the lifetime prevalence of any alcohol use disorder (AUD) is 5.1%‐8.6%. In 2017, global prevalence of alcohol‐associated compensated and decompensated cirrhosis was 23.6 million and 2.5 million, respectively. Combined, alcohol‐associated cirrhosis and liver cancer account for 1% of all deaths worldwide with this burden expected to increase. Solutions for this growing epidemic must be multi‐faceted and focused on both population and patient‐level interventions. Reductions in ALD‐related morbidity and mortality require solutions that focus on early identification and intervention, reducing alcohol consumption at the population level (taxation, reduced availability and restricted promotion), and solutions tailored to local socioeconomic realities (unrecorded alcohol consumption, focused youth education). Simple screening tools and algorithms can be applied at the population level to identify alcohol misuse, diagnose ALD using non‐invasive serum and imaging markers, and risk‐stratify higher‐risk ALD/AUD patients. Novel methods of healthcare delivery and platforms are needed (telehealth, outreach, use of non‐healthcare providers, partnerships between primary and specialty care/tertiary hospitals) to proactively mitigate the global burden of ALD. An integrated approach that combines medical and AUD treatment is needed at the individual level to have the highest impact. Future needs include (1) improving quality of ALD data and standardizing care, (2) supporting innovative healthcare delivery platforms that can treat both ALD and AUD, (3) stronger and concerted advocacy by professional hepatology organizations, and (4) advancing implementation of digital interventions.