Citations

Objective. To estimate the benefit of PSA-based screening for prostate cancer from the patient and societal perspectives. Method. A partially observable Markov decision process model was used to optimize PSA screening decisions. Age-specific prostate cancer incidence rates and the mortality rates from prostate cancer and competing causes were considered. The model trades off the potential benefit of early detection with the cost of screening and loss of patient quality of life due to screening and treatment. PSA testing and biopsy decisions are made based on the patient’s probability of having prostate cancer. Probabilities are inferred based on the patient’s complete PSA history using Bayesian updating. Data Sources. The results of all PSA tests and biopsies done in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1993 to 2005 (11,872 men and 50,589 PSA test results). Outcome Measures. Patients’ perspective: to maximize expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs); societal perspective: to maximize the expected monetary value based on societal willingness to pay for QALYs and the cost of PSA testing, prostate biopsies, and treatment. Results. From the patient perspective, the optimal policy recommends stopping PSA testing and biopsy at age 76. From the societal perspective, the stopping age is 71. The expected incremental benefit of optimal screening over the traditional guideline of annual PSA screening with threshold 4.0 ng/mL for biopsy is estimated to be 0.165 QALYs per person from the patient perspective and 0.161 QALYs per person from the societal perspective. PSA screening based on traditional guidelines is found to be worse than no screening at all. Conclusions. PSA testing done with traditional guidelines underperforms and therefore underestimates the potential benefit of screening. Optimal screening guidelines differ significantly depending on the perspective of the decision maker.

Abstract Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation in multiple myeloma is limited by prior reports of high treatment-related mortality. We analyzed outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for multiple myeloma in 1207 recipients in 3 cohorts based on the year of transplantation: 1989-1994 (n = 343), 1995-2000 (n = 376), and 2001-2005 (n = 488). The most recent cohort was significantly older (53% > 50 years) and had more recipients after prior autotransplantation. Use of unrelated donors, reduced-intensity conditioning and the blood cell grafts increased over time. Rates of acute graft-versus-host (GVHD) were similar, but chronic GVHD rates were highest in the most recent cohort. Overall survival (OS) at 1-year increased over time, reflecting a decrease in treatment-related mortality, but 5-year relapse rates increased from 39% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33%-44%) in 1989-1994 to 58% (95% CI, 51%-64%; P < .001) in the 2001-2005 cohort. Projected 5-year progression-free survival and OS are 14% (95% CI, 9%-20%) and 29% (95% CI, 23%-35%), respectively, in the latest cohort. Increasing age, longer interval from diagnosis to transplantation, and unrelated donor grafts adversely affected OS in multivariate analysis. Survival at 5 years for subjects with none, 1, 2, or 3 of these risk factors were 41% (range, 36%-47%), 32% (range, 27%-37%), 25% (range, 19%-31%), and 3% (range, 0%-11%), respectively (P < .0001).

This study was performed to review the safety and outcome of total shoulder replacements in patients who are ≥ 80 years of age. A total of 50 total shoulder replacements in 44 patients at a mean age of 82 years (80 to 89) were studied. Their health and shoulder status, the operation and post-operative course were analysed, including pain, movement, patient satisfaction, medical and surgical complications, radiographs, the need for revision surgery, and implant and patient survival. A total of 27 patients had an ASA classification of III or IV and medical abnormalities were common. Of the 13 shoulders with bony deficiency of the glenoid, nine required grafting. The duration of hospital stay was prolonged and blood transfusions were common. There were no peri-operative deaths. The mean follow-up was for 5.5 years (2 to 12). Pain was significantly reduced (p < 0.001) and movement improved in active elevation and both external and internal rotation (p < 0.001). Using the Neer scale for assessing outcome, 40 (80%) shoulders had an excellent or satisfactory result. There were medical or surgical complications in 17 cases. Four shoulders developed radiological evidence of loosened glenoid components, and three of these had a poor outcome. Three other shoulders required revision, two for instability. By the time of this review 39 of the patients had died from unrelated causes at a mean of 7.5 years (0.8 to 16.4) after surgery. Total shoulder replacement is a relatively effective treatment in this elderly group of patients. However, there is a requirement for more intense patient care in the peri-operative period, and non-fatal medical or surgical complications are common. Most of these elderly patients will have a comfortable functional shoulder for the rest of their lives.

The allocation of surgeries to operating rooms (ORs) is a challenging combinatorial optimization problem. There is also significant uncertainty in the duration of surgical procedures, which further complicates assignment decisions. In this paper, we present stochastic optimization models for the assignment of surgeries to ORs on a given day of surgery. The objective includes a fixed cost of opening ORs and a variable cost of overtime relative to a fixed length-of-day. We describe two types of models. The first is a two-stage stochastic linear program with binary decisions in the first stage and simple recourse in the second stage. The second is its robust counterpart, in which the objective is to minimize the maximum cost associated with an uncertainty set for surgery durations. We describe the mathematical models, bounds on the optimal solution, and solution methodologies, including an easy-to-implement heuristic. Numerical experiments based on real data from a large health-care provider are used to contrast the results for the two models and illustrate the potential for impact in practice. Based on our numerical experimentation, we find that a fast and easy-to-implement heuristic works fairly well, on average, across many instances. We also find that the robust method performs approximately as well as the heuristic, is much faster than solving the stochastic recourse model, and has the benefit of limiting the worst-case outcome of the recourse problem.

Background and Aims. Colorectal cancer, a leading cause of cancer death, is preventable with colonoscopic screening. Colonoscopy cost is high, and optimizing resource utilization for colonoscopy is important. This study’s aim is to evaluate resource allocation for optimal use of facilities for colonoscopy screening. Method. The authors used data from a computerized colonoscopy database to develop a discrete event simulation model of a colonoscopy suite. Operational configurations were compared by varying the number of endoscopists, procedure rooms, the patient arrival times, and procedure room turnaround time. Performance measures included the number of patients served during the clinic day and utilization of key resources. Further analysis included considering patient waiting time tradeoffs as well as the sensitivity of the system to procedure room turnaround time. Results. The maximum number of patients served is linearly related to the number of procedure rooms in the colonoscopy suite, with a fixed room to endoscopist ratio. Utilization of intake and recovery resources becomes more efficient as the number of procedure rooms increases, indicating the potential benefits of large colonoscopy suites. Procedure room turnaround time has a significant influence on patient throughput, procedure room utilization, and endoscopist utilization for varying ratios between 1:1 and 2:1 rooms per endoscopist. Finally, changes in the patient arrival schedule can reduce patient waiting time while not requiring a longer clinic day. Conclusions. Suite managers should keep a procedure room to endoscopist ratio between 1:1 and 2:1 while considering the utilization of related key resources as a decision factor as well. The sensitivity of the system to processes such as turnaround time should be evaluated before improvement efforts are made.

Background and Purpose— Detection of an intracardiac shunt is frequently sought during the evaluation of patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke and agitated saline intravenous injection, or “bubble study” (BS), is performed in most cases. We present the first attempt to identify the clinical features in patients who had cerebral ischemic events with BS. Methods— Using a list serve established by the American Academy of Neurology, a member posted a question regarding the safety of BS in patients with patent foramen ovale. A standardized questionnaire was used to gather data about patients with cerebral ischemic events, details of each case were reviewed, and the findings pooled. Results— Five patients with ischemic complications of BS (all female, aged 42 to 90 years) were identified from 4 institutions, 3 ischemic strokes and 2 transient ischemic attacks. Events occurred either during or within 5 minutes of BS. Early brain MRIs confirmed acute infarction in 3, including one who had transient symptoms. MRI infarct volumes were small, and deficits were mild in those who developed stroke. Diagnostic evaluation revealed a patent foramen ovale alone in one case, a pulmonary arteriovenous malformation in one case, and a patent foramen ovale and/or pulmonary shunt in 3 cases. Conclusions— Ischemic cerebrovascular complications can occur in patients who undergo BS and are associated with the presence of cardiac or pulmonary shunts. The true incidence and degree of disability remains unknown, and further study is indicated to assess the impact of technical differences in BS methodology. Novel methods to promote physician communication such as the use of electronic list serves may reduce barriers to reporting of drug, technique, or device complications and should be explored to identify rare complications that otherwise will likely go unappreciated.

Background— Left ventricular dysfunction is an indication for aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe aortic regurgitation (AR). However, the postoperative outcome of patients with severe AR and a markedly low ejection fraction (EF) is not known. Methods and Results— The study group consisted of a total of 450 patients who had AVR for isolated AR between 1980 and 1995. Patients with markedly reduced left ventricular function (EF <35%, LoEF, n=43) were compared with those with moderate reduction in left ventricular function (EF 35% to 50%, MedEF, n=134) and those with normal left ventricular function (EF ≥50%, Nl EF, n=273). The operative mortality rate was higher with LoEF (14%) than with MedEF and Nl EF (6.7% and 3.7%, respectively, P =0.02). At 10 years, 41%±9% of LoEF patients had survived compared with 56%±5% and 70%±3% of MedEF and Nl EF patients, respectively ( P <0.0001). Congestive heart failure occurred at 10 years in 25%±9% with LoEF compared with 17%±4% and 9%±2% with MedEF and NL EF, respectively ( P <0.003). Postoperative EF improved by 4.9%±13.8% in the LoEF group and by 4%±11.9% in the MedEF group compared with −2.3%±10.9% in the Nl EF group ( P <0.002 and P <0.0001, respectively). Conclusions— Patients with severe AR and markedly low EF incur excess operative mortality rates, postoperative mortality rates, and congestive heart failure after AVR. However, postoperative EF improves markedly, and most patients enjoy a long postoperative survival without recurrence of heart failure after AVR; thus they should not be denied the benefits of AVR.