Citations

Background and Purpose The present study was conducted to investigate the incidence of stroke and 30-day case-fatality rates for stroke in a defined Russian population. Methods This is a population-based study that was established in 1982. All residents of an administratively defined and typical district of Novosibirsk (approximately 150 000 subjects) who had an incident (first-ever) stroke from January 1, 1982, through December 31, 1992, were registered. Results During an 11-year study period, 3406 incident stroke patients were registered, for an overall crude average annual incidence rate of 202/100 000 population. The rates were higher with increasing age and were significantly higher for men than for women. The age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence rate of stroke declined from 271/100 000 in 1982 to 232/100 000 in 1992. Slowing of the decline in stroke incidence was observed after 1988, and stroke incidence increased slightly in 1992. No significant differences in 30-day stroke case-fatality rates were noted from 1982 through 1992, but a slight trend toward decreasing rates was observed after 1988. There was no major change in patient age at stroke onset. Conclusions Stroke incidence rates in Novosibirsk are among the highest in the world. We observed a decline in stroke incidence but little change in 30-day case-fatality rates in Novosibirsk from 1982 through 1992.

Background and Purpose The purpose of this study was to clarify whether mitral valve prolapse increases the subsequent risk of stroke. Methods A historical cohort study was conducted on 1079 residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had an initial echocardiographic diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse between 1975 and 1989 without prior stroke or transient ischemic attack and who were followed up for first stroke occurrence. Results There was an overall twofold increase in the incidence of stroke among individuals with mitral valve prolapse relative to the reference population (standardized morbidity ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 3.2). Sex, duration of follow-up from the diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse, or calendar year of initial diagnosis did not modify the association. Within the cohort of patients who were at least 35 years old at diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse, a time-dependent proportional-hazards multivariate model and a person-years analysis revealed that age, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and diabetes mellitus were important determinants for stroke when person-years of observation after mitral valve replacement were excluded. Among seven persons with mitral valve replacement, three strokes occurred in 24 person-years of follow-up. For those with an auscultatory diagnosis of mitral valve prolapse only as the indication for echocardiography (44%), the risk of stroke relative to the population was 1.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.2 to 2.9); for those with another cardiac diagnosis, the standardized morbidity ratio was 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 4.0). Conclusions Individuals with uncomplicated mitral valve prolapse did not have an increased risk of stroke, although a small increase in the risk may not have been detected.

Much of the available data on stroke occurrence, service use, and cost of care originated with hospital discharge abstracts. This article uses the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to estimate the sensitivity and positive predictive value of hospital discharge abstracts for incident stroke. The Rochester Stroke Registry was used to identify all confirmed first strokes (hospitalized and nonhospitalized) among Rochester residents for 1970, 1980, 1984, and 1989 (n = 364). The sensitivity of discharge abstracts was estimated by following these individuals for 12 months after stroke to determine the proportion assigned a discharge diagnosis of cerebrovascular disease (International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes 430 through 438.9). The positive predictive value of discharge abstracts was assessed by identifying all hospitalizations of Rochester residents with an ICD code of 430-438.9 in 1970, 1980, and 1989 (n = 377). Events were categorized as incident stroke, recurrent stroke, stroke sequelae, or nonstroke after review of the complete community-based medical record by a neurologist. Only 86% (n = 313) of all first-stroke patients in 1970, 1980, 1984, and 1989 were hospitalized. Of hospitalized patients, only 76% were assigned a principal discharge diagnosis code of 430-438.9. Fatal strokes and those occurring during a hospitalization were less likely to be identified. Among all hospitalizations of Rochester residents in 1970, 1980, and 1989, there were 377 with a principal diagnosis code of 430-438.9. Less than half (n = 177) were determined by the neurologist to be incident stroke; only 60% (n = 225) were either incident or recurrent stroke. Comparison of alternative approaches showed the validity of discharge abstracts was enhanced by increasing the number of diagnoses and excluding codes with poor positive predictive value. This study provides previously unavailable estimates of the sensitivity of stroke-coded hospitalizations for a US community. A model for improving the sensitivity and positive predictive value of discharge abstracts is presented.

This is a study of cardiac diseases associated with the 1,382 cases of first cerebral infarction in residents of Rochester, Minn., during 1960-1984. This is a population-based study in Rochester, Minn., for which the medical record-linkage system was used to identify cardiac disease among patients with first cerebral infarction. There were 318 patients (23%) who had at least one major potential cardiac source of emboli. The proportion of patients with a cardiac source of emboli was significantly higher among patients older than age 75 years (29%) than among younger patients (17%). The 30-day stroke recurrence rate among patients with a cardiac source of emboli (2%) was not significantly different than that among those without a cardiac source of emboli (2%). Among patients with a cardiac source of emboli, there was no difference in the probability of stroke at 30 days and at 90 days for those treated or not treated with anticoagulants. During the first 30 days after cerebral infarction, the risk of death in patients with a cardiac source of emboli (23%) was 14 times that of recurrent stroke. The risk of death at 30 days in patients without a cardiac source of emboli was 8%. Significant independent predictors of death (Cox proportional-hazards analysis) were age, prior myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation present at onset of stroke, congestive heart failure before the stroke, and an age x congestive heart failure interaction. The only significant independent predictors of recurrent stroke were cardiac valve disease and congestive heart failure.

This study evaluated the characteristics and natural history of patients with lacunar (small, deep) cerebral infarcts in a defined population for comparison of these characteristics to those in patients with nonlacunar infarcts. This is a population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota, from 1960 to 1984, that used the medical record-linkage system to identify and characterize patients with cerebral infarction. The age- and sex-adjusted average annual incidence rate of lacunar cerebral infarction was 13.4/100,000 persons, accounting for 12% of all first cerebral infarcts. Temporal trends in incidence rates, stroke recurrence rates, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and causes of death (given survival for 30 days) for cases of lacunar infarction were not significantly different from those for cases of nonlacunar infarction. Hypertension was found in 81% of patients who had a lacunar infarct and in 70% of patients who had a nonlacunar infarct (p = 0.05). A potential cardiac source of embolism was found in 12% of patients who had a lacunar infarct and in 28% of patients who had a nonlacunar infarct (p = 0.002). Survival was significantly better after a lacunar infarct than after a nonlacunar infarct. Small, deep cerebral infarcts had many of the epidemiological characteristics of other cerebral infarcts but there was a slightly higher frequency of hypertension, significantly lower frequency of a cardiac embolic source, and significantly better survival in patients with lacunar infarction than in those with nonlacunar infarction.

This study is a prospective analysis of the predictive value of diffuse and localized carotid bruit. Patients with asymptomatic carotid bruits are compared with a population-based age- and sex-matched control group known not to have carotid bruit, in regard to subsequent transient ischemic attack, stroke, and death. Each person was followed until death or for 5 years. Among the 566 patients with asymptomatic carotid bruit, the annual stroke rate given survival was 1.5%/yr or 7.5% at 5 years by actuarial analysis. The annual stroke rate given survival for the 428 patients in the population-based cohort was 0.5%/yr or 2.4% at 5 years. Patients with localized carotid bruit were not significantly different from those with diffuse carotid bruits in regard to subsequent cerebral ischemic events (p = 0.11). These data indicate that patients with asymptomatic diffuse or localized carotid bruit are approximately three times more likely to have ischemic stroke than an age- and sex-matched population sample known not to have carotid bruit.

The effect of cigarette smoking on extracranial carotid atherosclerosis was studies by obtaining cigarette smoking histories and information on other potential risk factors from consecutive patients undergoing carotid arteriography. At least on extracranial carotid artery was visualized in 752 patients in whom the extent of carotid atherosclerosis was assessed. The total years of cigarette smoking was the most significant independent predictor of the presence of severe carotid atherosclerosis. Other independent predictors, in order of significance, were age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, male sex, and current systolic blood pressure. By age 60 years, the risk of having severe carotid atherosclerosis for a person who had smoked for 40 years was approximately 3.5 times that for a never smoker. The major benefit of smoking cessation is in limiting the accumulation of smoking years.

We studied subarachnoid hemorrhage in the population of Rochester, Minnesota, for the 40-year period from 1945 through 1984. The average annual incidence rate of subarachnoid hemorrhage in Rochester has remained constant at approximately 11 per 100,000 population. Age-specific incidence rates increased with age. However, the average annual mortality rate for subarachnoid hemorrhage in Rochester has shown a decreasing trend, from 6.8 per 100,000 population in 1955-1964 to 4.3 in 1975-1984. It is likely that this is due to a decrease in case-fatality rates from 57% in 1945-1974 to 42% in 1975-1984 (p = 0.10). This decreasing trend was also evident in annual mortality rates from subarachnoid hemorrhage for US white men and women. The reason for the improved case-fatality rate is unclear, but it may be related to changes in management. The interval from onset of subarachnoid hemorrhage to surgery decreased from a median of 12 days in 1975-1979 to 2 days in 1980-1984, and of those who survived to receive medical attention, more patients received some form of medical treatment in 1980-1984. Whether either or both of these changes have led to the decrease in the case-fatality rate is uncertain.

Studies of the population of Rochester, Minnesota, have provided the only data on temporal trends for the incidence of stroke in North America. Among the residents of Rochester, the average annual incidence rate of stroke declined by 46%, from 213 to 115 per 100,000 population, between 1950-1954 and 1975-1979. The decline occurred in all age and sex groups, but it occurred earlier in women than in men. The rates stabilized in the 1970s, and did so earlier in women. For 1980-1984, the incidence rate of stroke was 17% higher than that for 1975-1979. The onset of the decline in incidence rates coincided with the introduction of effective antihypertensive therapy, but stabilized and increased rates were associated with continuing improvement in the control of hypertension. The increase in the incidence rates of stroke coincided with the introduction of computed tomography, which appeared to increase the detection of less severe strokes.

Background and Purpose —There is scant population-based information on incidence and risk factors for ischemic stroke subtypes. Methods —We identified all 454 residents of Rochester, Minn, with a first ischemic stroke between 1985 and 1989 from the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records linkage system. We used Stroke Data Bank criteria to assign infarct subtypes after reviewing medical records and brain imaging. We adjusted average annual incidence rates by age and sex to the US 1990 population and compared the age-adjusted frequency of stroke risk factors across ischemic stroke subtypes. Results —Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates (per 100 000 population) were as follows: large-vessel cervical or intracranial atherosclerosis with >50% stenosis, 27; cardioembolic, 40; lacuna, 25; uncertain cause, 52; other or uncommon cause, 4. Sex differences in incidence rates were detected only for atherosclerosis with stenosis (47 [95% CI, 34 to 61] for men; 12 [95% CI, 7 to 17] for women). There was no difference in prior transient ischemic attack and hypertension among subtypes, and diabetes was not more common among patients with lacunar infarction than other common subtypes. Conclusions —The age-adjusted incidence rate of stroke due to stenosis of the large cervicocephalic vessels is nearly 4 times higher for men than for women. There is no association between preceding transient ischemic attack and stroke mechanism. Diabetes and hypertension are not more common among patients with lacunae. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates for ischemic stroke subtypes in this population can be compared with similarly determined rates from other populations.