Maurer, Christian

524 Background: PREDICT+ is a widely used, free, online tool based on traditional clinico-pathological features, including HER2, developed to predict individual mortality of EBC pts and to aid clinical decision making for adjuvant therapy. However, its prognostic role in HER2+ EBC pts treated with chemotherapy (CT) and anti-HER2 therapies remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the prognostic performance of PREDICT+ in HER2+ EBC pts enrolled in the ALTTO trial. Methods: ALTTO is a phase III study evaluating adjuvant lapatinib (L) +/- trastuzumab (T) vs. T alone in pts with HER2+ EBC. Pts enrolled in the ALTTO trial and receiving T-based therapy started concurrently with CT were eligible for this analysis. We calculated PREDICT+ estimates using variables extracted from ALTTO database, blinded to pts outcomes. The prognostic performance of PREDICT+ was evaluated by assessing its calibration and discriminatory accuracy. For calibration, median predicted 5-year (5-yr) overall survival (OS) was compared to observed 5-yr OS. For discriminatory accuracy, the area under the receiver-operator characteristic (AUC under the ROC) curve and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for predicted 5-yr OS were calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed according to type of anti-HER2 therapy, type of CT, age, hormone receptor (HR) status, nodal status and tumor size. Results: This analysis included 2,794 pts. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT+ underestimated 5-yr OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups (Table). For discriminatory accuracy, AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95%CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analysed subgroups. Conclusions: In HER2+ EBC pts enrolled in the ALTTO trial, the PREDICT+ score highly underestimated OS. The low performance of this prognostic tool was consistent across all pts subgroups. PREDICT+ should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation in HER2+ EBC pts treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.[Table: see text]

Background: The association between obesity and prognosis in HER2-positive early breast cancer remains unclear, with limited data available. This study aimed to determine the impact of body mass index (BMI) at baseline and weight change after 2 years on outcomes of patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer. Methods: ALTTO was a randomized phase III trial in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer. BMI was collected at randomization and 2 years after. WHO BMI categories were used: underweight, <18.5 kg/m2; normal weight, 18.5 to <25 kg/m2; overweight, ≥25 to <30 kg/m2; and obese ≥30 kg/m2. A weight change from baseline of ≥5.0% and ≤5.0% was categorized as weight gain and weight loss. The impact of BMI at randomization and of weight change on disease-free survival (DFS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS), and overall survival (OS) were investigated with multivariate analyses, adjusting for baseline patients and tumor characteristics. Results: A total of 8,381 patients were included: 187 (2.2%), 3,797 (45.3%), 2,690 (32.1%), and 1,707 (20.4%) were underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese at baseline, respectively. Compared with normal weight, being obese at randomization was associated with a significantly worse DDFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04–1.50) and OS (aHR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.01–1.60), but no significant difference in DFS (aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.97–1.32). Weight loss ≥5.0% at 2 years after randomization was associated with significantly poorer DFS (aHR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05–1.71), DDFS (aHR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.07–1.98), and OS (aHR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.18–2.84). Hormone receptor and menopausal status but not anti-HER2 treatment type influenced outcomes. Toxicities were more frequent in obese patients. Conclusions: In patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer, obesity at baseline is a poor prognostic factor. Weight loss during treatment and follow-up negatively impacts clinical outcomes. Dietary counseling should be part of survivorship care programs.