Leach, Robin J.

Abstract Background: Missing risk factors, whether random or not measured at all, across different hospitals and patients provide challenges, both for the developers of online clinical risk tools and the patients trying to use such tools. This paper provides a development and end-user solution to the commonly encountered limitations of clinical risk tool based decision making due to missing information.Methods: Six state-of-the-art logistic regression approaches accommodating missing data were compared using prostate cancer data from ten North American and European cohorts from the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG). An additional large European PBCG cohort was withheld for external validation, where calibration-in-the-large (CIL), calibration curves, and area-underneath-the-receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated. Ten-fold leave-one-cohort-internal validation further validated the optimal missing data approach.Results: Among 12,703 biopsies from 10 training cohorts, 3,597 (28%) had clinically significant prostate cancer, compared to 1,757 of 5,540 (32%) in the external validation cohort. In external validation, the available cases method that pooled individual patient data containing all risk factors input by an end-user had best CIL, under-predicting risks as percentages by 2.9% on average, and obtained an AUC of 75.7%. Imputation had the worst CIL (-13.3%). The available cases method was further validated as optimal in internal cross-validation and thus used for development of an online risk tool. For end-users of the risk tool, two risk factors were mandatory: serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and age, and ten were optional: digital rectal exam, prostate volume, prior negative biopsy, 5-alpha-reductase-inhibitor use, prior PSA screen, African ancestry, Hispanic ethnicity, first-degree prostate-, breast-, and second-degree prostate-cancer family history.Conclusion: Developers of clinical risk prediction tools should optimize use of available data and sources even in the presence of high amounts of missing data and offer options for users with missing risk factors.

Chronic Helicobacter pylori ( H. pylori) infection is a major gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) risk factor. GA disproportionately affects U.S. Hispanics compared with non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs). Since H. pylori infection studies in Hispanics are few, infection rates in Hispanic and NHW men in Bexar County were compared, and relationships with ethnicity and obesity examined. Age- and zip code-matched participants from a community-dwelling cohort were randomly selected. Sera from 284 men were analyzed by enzyme immunoassay for H. pylori antibodies. Adjusted risk ratio estimation for matched data was conducted to identify differences. Hispanics had a markedly higher prevalence of infection (30.3%) than NHWs (9.2%). Matched risk ratio (mRR) analyses revealed a strong association between H. pylori seropositivity and Hispanic ethnicity (mRR = 3.31; 95% CI [1.91, 5.73], adjusted by BMI, smoking status, and family history of cancer (mRR range = 3.28-3.89). BMI mRRs (range = 1.19-1.22) were significant in all models. In this cohort, Hispanic men had higher H. pylori infection rates than NHWs, and parallel the disproportionately higher rates of GA; obesity contributes to this higher prevalence. Future studies should address country of origin, acculturation, and other factors influencing obesity to further elucidate risk of GA in Hispanic populations.

Abstract Familial expansile osteolysis (FEO) is a rare autosomal dominant disorder characterized by striking focal expansile osteolytic bone lesions and generalized osteopenia, often accompanied by characteristic early hearing loss and dental disease. The TNFRSF11A gene encodes the receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB (RANK), which has been demonstrated to be essential in bone remodeling and osteoclast differentiation. Identical insertional mutations in the first exon of RANK have been identified in all published FEO kindreds. The mutation is an 18 base pair tandem duplication in the sequence coding for the signal peptide of RANK, which causes an increase in NF-κB signaling. We report the identification and mutational analysis of two unrelated FEO patients. One had no family history of FEO, but presented with bilateral hearing loss at an early age, deterioration of teeth, and severe pain and swelling in the distal tibia before the age of 20. The second patient had a family history of FEO and exhibited an extensive expansile tibial lesion and lesions in one humerus and a phalanx. She also had early hearing loss and dental disease. Mutational analysis of the TNFRSF11A gene in our patients demonstrated an 18 base pair tandem duplication, one base proximal to the duplications previously reported. This novel mutation results in addition of the same six amino acids to the RANK signal peptide that has been observed previously. Further analysis of the exon 1 sequence demonstrated that it has the ability to form a stable secondary structure that may facilitate the generation of tandem duplications.