Charilaou, Paris

Abstract Background and Aim Data are lacking on predicting inpatient mortality (IM) in patients admitted for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). IM is a critical outcome; however, difficulty in its prediction exists due to infrequent occurrence. We assessed IM predictors and developed a predictive model for IM using machine‐learning (ML). Methods Using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database (2005–2017), we extracted adults admitted for IBD. After ML‐guided predictor selection, we trained and internally validated multiple algorithms, targeting minimum sensitivity and positive likelihood ratio (+LR) ≥ 80% and ≥ 3, respectively. Diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) compared algorithm performance. The best performing algorithm was additionally trained and validated for an IBD‐related surgery sub‐cohort. External validation was done using NIS 2018. Results In 398 426 adult IBD admissions, IM was 0.32% overall, and 0.87% among the surgical cohort ( n = 40 784). Increasing age, ulcerative colitis, IBD‐related surgery, pneumonia, chronic lung disease, acute kidney injury, malnutrition, frailty, heart failure, blood transfusion, sepsis/septic shock and thromboembolism were associated with increased IM. The QLattice algorithm, provided the highest performance model (+LR: 3.2, 95% CI 3.0–3.3; area‐under‐curve [AUC]:0.87, 85% sensitivity, 73% specificity), distinguishing IM patients by 15.6‐fold when comparing high to low‐risk patients. The surgical cohort model (+LR: 8.5, AUC: 0.94, 85% sensitivity, 90% specificity), distinguished IM patients by 49‐fold. Both models performed excellently in external validation. An online calculator ( https://clinicalc.ai/im‐ibd/ ) was developed allowing bedside model predictions. Conclusions An online prediction‐model calculator captured > 80% IM cases during IBD‐related admissions, with high discriminatory effectiveness. This allows for risk stratification and provides a basis for assessing interventions to reduce mortality in high‐risk patients.

Abstract Purpose: Little is known about the outcomes of endoscopic resection (ER) for patients with colorectal adenomas (CRAs) with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or intramucosal cancer (IMCA). This study aimed to estimate the rate of local/malignant recurrence, identify the predictive factors for local recurrence (LR) and evaluate the treatment outcomes of recurrence after ER for HGD/IMCA. Methods: A retrospective review was performed to identify patients who underwent ER for HGD/IMCA in two academic medical centers. Risk factors for LR were determined by Cox regression analysis. Results: Overall, 188 lesions with HGD/IMCA were included; 61 lesions were removed by en-bloc ER (e-ER), whereas 127 lesions were removed in a piecemeal ER (p-ER). The mean lesion size was 20.3 mm. Of the 125 patients who underwent follow-up, local adenoma recurrence occurred in 31 (23%), and malignant recurrence occurred in 2 (1.6%) patients at a median follow-up of 8 months. HGD/IMCA ≥ 4 cm removed by p-ER have the greatest hazard ratio (HR=21.5, 95% CI: 2.5-180.5; p=0.005) for LR, compared to the HGD/IMCA < 4 cm removed by e-ER. Surgery was performed in 3.2% of patients after a complete ER, all after p-ER. Of all patients who had LR, 22.6% (7/31 patients) had recurrent/residual adenomas despite repeat ER attempts after a mean of 1.9±0.79 procedures from the index ER. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates high rate of LR (23%) after ER of CRAs with HGD/IMCA with rate of malignant recurrence of 1.6% especially after p-ER. Thus, e-ER should be preferred for these lesions whenever technically feasible.

Abstract Background and study aims Current guidelines conditionally recommend performing early colonoscopy (EC) (< 24 hours) in patients admitted with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB). It remains unclear whether this practice is implemented widely. Therefore, we used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to investigate trends for timing of colonoscopy in patients admitted with acute LGIB. We also assessed trend of hospitalization and mortality in patients with LGIB. Patients and methods Adult patients with LGIB admitted from 2005 to 2014 were examined. ICD-9-CM codes were used to extract LGIB discharges. Trends were assessed using Cochrane-Armitage test. Factors associated with mortality, cost of hospitalization, and length of stay (LOS) were assessed by multivariable mixed-effects and exact-matched logistic, linear regression, and accelerated-failure time models, respectively. Results A total of 814,647 patients with LGIB were included. The most common etiology of LGIB was diverticular bleeding (49 %) and 45 % of patients underwent EC. Over the study period, there was no change in the trend of colonoscopy timing. Although admission with LGIB increased over the study period, the mortality rate decreased for patients undergoing colonoscopy. Independent predictors of mortality were age, surgery (colostomy/colectomy) during admission, intensive care unit admission, acute kidney injury, and blood transfusion requirement. Timing of colonoscopy was not associated with mortality benefit. However, cost of hospitalization was $ 1,946 lower and LOS was 1.6 days shorter with EC. Conclusion Trends in colonoscopy timing in management of LGIB have not changed over the years. EC is associated with lower LOS and cost of hospitalization but it does not appear to improve inpatient mortality.

AbstractBackground and AimAcute kidney injury (AKI) is used as a marker of severity in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) patients. We estimated the true effect of AKI in inpatient mortality of CDI patients, as there are no large‐scale, population‐based, propensity‐matched studies evaluating AKI's effect in this patient cohort.MethodsA retrospective observational study utilizing the National Inpatient Sample from years 2003 to 2012, including all adults with CDI, excluding cases missing data on age, inpatient mortality or gender. Trends and CDI‐related complications as mortality predictors were assessed using survey‐weighted multivariable regression. We estimated AKI's independent effect by propensity‐matching, post‐stratifying by chronic kidney disease status, allowing for multiple comorbidity adjustment.ResultsA total of 2 859 599 patients with CDI were included, of which 896 122 (31.3%) had principal diagnosis of CDI. AKI prevalence was 22%. Mortality rate was 8.4%, while among AKI patients was higher (18.2%). In multivariable regression, AKI was associated with higher mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 3.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.02–3.30; P < 0.001), while after propensity matching, AKI increased mortality by 86% (OR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.79–1.94; P < 0.001). CDI incidence increased by 1.8, together with the rate of AKI (12.6% in 2003 to 28.8% in 2012, P‐trend < 0.001). Despite increasing hospitalizations, mortality over the study period decreased to 7.2% (2012) from 9.0% (2003); P‐trend < 0.001.ConclusionHospital admissions of patients with CDI and concomitant AKI are increasing, but their inpatient mortality has improved over the study period. AKI is a significant contributor to mortality, independently of other comorbidities, complications, and hospital characteristics, emphasizing the need for early diagnosis and aggressive management in such patients.