Kim, Isaac Yi

Importance Prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET), a form of molecular imaging, increases detection of advanced and metastatic prostate cancer, but its potential to increase treatment costs due to increased detection is poorly defined. Objective To estimate lifetime health and cost outcomes and evaluate the cost-effectiveness associated with implementing PSMA-PET in the clinical evaluation of a patient with a biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer, with evaluation of sources of uncertainty in the underlying evidence and assessment of the need and focus of additional data collection. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation developed a decision-analytic model consisting of a decision tree and a Markov model informed by published literature and a study of patients with BCR prostate cancer undergoing PSMA-PET after definitive surgery or radiation therapy at 2 high-volume US academic centers. The analysis was performed between August 1, 2024, and May 1, 2025. Interventions Patients underwent (1) PSMA-PET, (2) PSMA-PET imaging as a reflex test if computed tomography plus bone scan (CTBS) was negative or equivocal (CTBS + PSMA-PET), and (3) CTBS alone. Main Outcomes and Measures Lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and value of information estimates were assessed, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We assumed a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per QALY. Results The model simulated 1000 patients with BCR (median age, 66 years) and estimated that up-front PSMA-PET is expected to have the highest mean QALYs (7.12 QALYs [95% UI, 6.71-7.51 QALYs]) compared with 6.55 QALYs (95% UI, 6.08-7.03 QALYs) for CTBS; it was also estimated to have higher mean costs ($451 000 [95% UI, $336 000-$577 000]) compared with $351 000 (95% UI, $263 000-$455 000]) for CTBS; consequently, PSMA-PET had mean increments of $99 000 (95% UI, $55 000-153,000) in costs and 0.58 QALYs (95% UI, 0.35-0.82 QALYs) compared with CTBS, leading to an ICER of $172 000 per QALY, which exceeded the assumed $150 000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. In patients with lower prostate-specific antigen levels (<2 ng/mL), PSMA had mean increments of $61 000 (95% UI, $21 000-$104 000) in costs and 0.54 QALYs (95% UI, 0.34-0.77 QALYs) compared with CTBS, leading to an ICER of $113 000/QALY, suggesting it had the potential to be cost-effective. Because of high decisional uncertainty, additional information regarding outcomes and diagnostic characteristics may be associated with reduced uncertainty and a gain of 15 747 QALYs. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that PSMA-PET may be associated with improved disease detection but may not be cost-effective due to high treatment costs offsetting moderate improvements in QALYs. Further research is needed to identify patient subsets and clinical scenarios in which molecular imaging provides the greatest value.

Purpose: Prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) improves prostate cancer (PCa) localization, particularly in biochemical recurrence (BCR). The primary objective was to assess management patterns after PSMA-PET for BCR at 2 academic centers. Methods: This study evaluated clinical management within 6 months after first PSMA-PET for patients with BCR after local therapy. Management categories included no treatment, local therapy, systemic therapy, and metastasis-directed therapy (MDT). We also evaluated clinical management decision variation across strata of PSMA-PET results PSA levels (<2.0, 2.0-4.99, and ≥5.0 ng/mL) at time of imaging. Results: We identified 581 patients who received PSMA-PET from February 2021 to June 2023. PSMA-PET findings were negative in 142 (24%) and demonstrated localized recurrence in 86 (15%), regional nodal disease in 60 (10%), and distant metastasis in 293 (50%). Distant metastasis was identified in 105 (35%) patients with PSA < 2.0, 67 (60%) with PSA 2.0 to 4.99, and 115 (71%) with PSA ≥ 5.0. In patients with negative PSMA-PET, 63 (44%) received treatment. Conversely, 92% with detected metastases were treated (systemic therapy in 189 [64%], MDT in 75 [26%], and local therapy in 7 [2%]). Treatments differed by the PSA level within strata of PSMA-PET findings. Among 293 patients with metastases, MDT was used more commonly in patients with PSA < 2.0 (37%) than PSA 2.0 to 4.99 (30%) or PSA ≥ 5.0 (13%). Conclusions: Most patients undergoing PSMA-PET for BCR had identifiable disease and initiated therapy within 6 months. Identification of distant metastases and treatment choices differed by the PSA level at imaging. Prospective research is needed to determine whether earlier detection and treatment initiation improve clinical outcomes.

ImportanceAlthough prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography (PSMA-PET) has shown improved sensitivity and specificity compared with conventional imaging for the detection of biochemical recurrent (BCR) prostate cancer, the long-term outcomes of a widespread shift in imaging are unknown.ObjectiveTo estimate long-term outcomes of integrating PSMA-PET into the staging pathway for recurrent prostate cancer.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis decision analytic modeling study simulated outcomes for patients with BCR following initial definitive local therapy. Inputs used were from the literature and a retrospective cohort study conducted at 2 institutions. The base case analysis assumed modest benefits of earlier detection and treatment, and scenario analyses considered prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at imaging and different outcomes of earlier vs delayed treatment. The analysis was performed between April 1, 2023, and May 1, 2024.Exposures(1) Immediate PSMA-PET imaging, (2) conventional imaging (computed tomography and bone scan [CTBS]) followed by PSMA-PET if CTBS findings were negative or equivocal, and (3) CTBS alone.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcomes were detection of metastases, deaths from prostate cancer, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained.ResultsThe model estimated that per 1000 simulated patients with BCR (assumed median age, 66 years), PSMA-PET is expected to diagnose 611 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 565-656) patients with metastasis compared with 630 (95% UI, 586-675) patients diagnosed using CTBS followed by PSMA-PET and 297 (95% UI, 202-410) patients diagnosed using CTBS alone. Moreover, the estimated number of prostate cancer deaths was 512 (95% UI, 472-552 deaths) with PSMA-PET, 520 (95% UI, 480-559 deaths) with CTBS followed by PSMA-PET, and 587 (95% UI, 538-632 deaths) with CTBS alone. Imaging with PSMA-PET yielded the highest number of QALYs, which were 824 (95% UI, 698-885) higher than CTBS. These results differed by PSA level at the time of testing, with the highest incremental life-years and QALYs and lowest number of deaths from prostate cancer among patients with PSA levels of at least 5.0 ng/mL. Finally, the estimates were sensitive to the expected benefit of initiating therapy for recurrent prostate cancer earlier in the disease course.Conclusions and RelevanceThe results of this decision-analytic model suggest that upfront PSMA-PET imaging for the evaluation of BCR is expected to be associated with reduced cancer mortality and gains in life-years and QALYs compared with the conventional imaging strategy, assuming modest benefits of earlier detection and treatment.