Lee, Elisa T.

Background and Purpose— American Indians have high rates of stroke. Improved risk stratification could enhance prevention, but the ability of biochemical and echocardiographic markers of preclinical disease to improve stroke prediction is not well-defined. Methods— We evaluated such markers as predictors of ischemic stroke in a community-based cohort of American Indians without prevalent cardiovascular or renal disease. Laboratory markers included C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and glycohemoglobin (HbA1c), whereas echocardiographic parameters comprised left atrial diameter, left ventricular mass, mitral annular calcification, and the ratio of early to late mitral diastolic velocities. Predictive performance was judged by indices of discrimination, reclassification, and calibration. Results— After adjustment for standard risk factors, only HbA1c, albuminuria, and left atrial diameter were significantly associated with first ischemic stroke. Addition of HbA1c, although not urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, to a basic clinical model significantly improved the C-statistic (0.714 versus 0.695; P =0.044), whereas left atrial diameter modestly enhanced integrated discrimination improvement (0.90%; P =0.004), but not the C-statistic (0.701; P =0.528). When combined with HbA1c, left atrial diameter further increased integrated discrimination improvement (1.81%; P <0.001) but not the C-statistic (0.716). No marker achieved significant net reclassification improvement. Conclusions— In this cohort at high cardiometabolic risk, HbA1c emerged as the foremost predictor of ischemic stroke when added to traditional risk factors, affording substantially improved discrimination, with a more modest contribution for left atrial diameter. These findings bolster the role of HbA1c in cardiovascular risk assessment among persons with glycometabolic disorders and provide impetus for further study of the incremental value of echocardiography in high-risk populations.

Background— There are few published data on the incidence of fatal and nonfatal stroke in American Indians. The aims of this observational study were to determine the incidence of stroke and to elucidate stroke risk factors among American Indians. Methods and Results— This report is based on 4549 participants aged 45 to 74 years at enrollment in the Strong Heart Study, the largest longitudinal, population-based study of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in a diverse group of American Indians. At baseline examination in 1989 to 1992, 42 participants (age- and sex-adjusted prevalence proportion 1132/100 000, adjusted to the age and sex distribution of the US adult population in 1990) had prevalent stroke. Through December 2004, 306 (6.8%) of 4507 participants without prior stroke suffered a first stroke at a mean age of 66.5 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence was 679/100 000 person-years. Nonhemorrhagic cerebral infarction occurred in 86% of participants with incident strokes; 14% had hemorrhagic stroke. The overall age-adjusted 30-day case-fatality rate from first stroke was 18%, with a 1-year case-fatality rate of 32%. Age, diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, hemoglobin A 1c, smoking, albuminuria, hypertension, prehypertension, and diabetes mellitus were risk factors for incident stroke. Conclusions— Compared with US white and black populations, American Indians have a higher incidence of stroke. The case-fatality rate for first stroke is also higher in American Indians than in the US white or black population in the same age range. Our findings suggest that blood pressure and glucose control and smoking avoidance may be important avenues for stroke prevention in this population.

Background and Purpose— Mitral annular calcification (MAC) and aortic valve (AV) sclerosis have each been linked to cardiovascular disease. Whether MAC and AV sclerosis are risk factors for stroke independent of other echocardiographic or laboratory predictors has not been established. We evaluated the relationship between MAC, AV sclerosis, and first stroke events in a population-based cohort. Methods— Our study cohort consisted of 2723 American Indians participating in the Strong Heart Study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease. Participants underwent standardized clinical, echocardiographic, and laboratory evaluation, and incident stroke was ascertained using validated methods. Results— During a median follow-up of 7 years, 86 strokes occurred. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of stroke were significantly increased for MAC (rate ratio [RR], 3.12; 95% CI, 1.77 to 5.25) but not for AV sclerosis (RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.45 to 2.49). MAC was also associated with a reduced time to first stroke events after adjustment for clinical variables and the inflammatory markers C-reactive protein and fibrinogen (hazard ratio [HR], 2.42; 95% CI, 1.39 to 4.21) or the echocardiographic covariates left ventricular hypertrophy and left atrial enlargement (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.41). Individuals with and without AV sclerosis showed no significant difference in stroke-free survival in unadjusted analyses ( P =0.698). Crossing of the survival curves precluded multivariable analysis using Cox models. Conclusions— In this cohort of American Indians without clinical cardiovascular disease, the presence of MAC, but not AV sclerosis, proved to be a strong risk factor for incident stroke after extensive adjustment for other predictors. Individuals exhibiting MAC may benefit from aggressive risk factor modification, but this will require further investigation.