Meyerhardt, Jeffrey A.

3528 Background: CALGB 80405 is a phase III clinical trial of FOLFOX and FOLFIRI w/ randomly assigned cetuximab or bevacizumab. Novel machine learning approaches to the study dataset provide valuable insights into CRC prognosis and management of CRC progression. Methods: Using a Monte Carlo Bayesian Generalized Linear Model analytical platform, we built an ensemble of models for overall survival (OS). We used 99 baseline and demographic variables, including 1904 patients w/ 1o side and 949 w/ KRAS wild-type status. Building an ensemble of predictive models reduces risk of overfitting, estimates model uncertainty and identifies key variables by model consensus as measured by ensemble frequency (freq). We fit gender and 1o side (L vs R) stratum-specific models to examine differences in drivers of disease in those strata. Results: 1o side (avg Cox hazard ratio = 0.89, R side reference), ECOG performance status (1.30, reference level 0), AST concentration (1.01), peripheral neutrophil percentage (1.01) and local primary and abdominal site of disease indicators (1.22; 1.26) were key variables predictive of OS ( > 75% freq). In 1o side stratum-specific models, urine protein level (1.61), treatment intent (0.75, nonpalliative as reference) and hemoglobin concentration (0.85) were more associated w/ L side progression (freq > 85% in L stratum model, < 20% in R), while liver and lung sites of disease (2.3; 1.09) were more associated w/ R side progression (freq > 65% in R stratum model, < 20% in L). Predictors of 1o left-sidedness included age (avg log odds ratio = 0.02), hemoglobin (0.41), and abdominal (3.79) and liver (0.68) sites of disease. Modest differences in disease prognostic factors existed between genders: women more influenced by metastatic status, age, liver site of disease and creatinine level; men more influenced by urine protein level and prior diabetes. Conclusions: 1o side plays a central role in potentially explaining both variation in OS and differences in drivers of OS. Availability of these measures at baseline enables better sense of disease course at initiation of treatment. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, Eli Lilly & Co., Genentech, Pfizer Clinical trial information: NCT00265850.

LBA1 The full, final text of this abstract will be available at abstracts.asco.org at 7:30 AM (EDT) on Sunday, June 4, 2017, and in the Annual Meeting Proceedings online supplement to the June 20, 2017, issue of the Journal of Clinical Oncology. Onsite at the Meeting, this abstract will be printed in the Sunday edition of ASCO Daily News.

Abstract Background: Higher intake of long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and nuts, rich plant sources of unsaturated fats, after colon cancer diagnosis are associated with improved survival. It is not known whether the amount or the distribution of other types of fat is associated with survival after colon cancer. Methods: We prospectively examined postdiagnostic total, animal, and vegetable fats, as well as the saturated, monounsaturated, polyunsaturated, and trans fat in relation to disease-free survival among 1,011 patients with stage III colon cancer. Patients were enrolled between 1999 and 2001 at the onset of adjuvant chemotherapy and followed for recurrence or death through 2009. Results: During median follow-up of 7 years, we observed 305 deaths and 81 recurrences (total events: 386). Neither total nor any specific type of dietary fat examined was statistically significantly associated with risk of cancer recurrence or death from any cause (disease-free survival) after stage III colon cancer. Conclusions: The amount and type (animal, vegetable, saturated, monounsaturated, polyunsaturated, and trans) of dietary fat consumed after colon cancer does not appear to be substantially associated with risk of recurrence or survival. Impact: Neither total nor major types (animal, vegetable, saturated, monounsaturated, polyunsaturated, and trans) of dietary fat consumed after colon cancer was associated with cancer recurrence or survival. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(10); 1227–30. ©2018 AACR.