Lee, W. Robert

55 Background: To compare the predictive ability of health utility mapping algorithms derived using cross-sectional and longitudinal data specific to the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC). Methods: This mapping study utilized data from an international, multicenter, randomized controlled trial of patients with low-risk prostate cancer conducted by NRG Oncology (NCT00331773). Health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) data were collected using EPIC, and health utilities were obtained using EuroQOL-5D (EQ5D) at baseline and 6, 12 and 24 months post-intervention. Data were split into an estimation sample (70%) and a validation sample (30%). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models were estimated using baseline cross-sectional data as well as pooled data from all assessment periods. Random effects (RE) specifications that explicitly model the longitudinal nature of the data were also estimated. Candidate models were selected based on root mean square error (RMSE). Results: A total of 196 (147) patients in the estimation sample had complete EQ5D and EPIC domain (subdomain) data at all time points. OLS models using combined data outperformed the counter-part RE models as well as OLS models using baseline data in the five-fold cross-validation. Addition of covariates to the models resulted in improved predictive ability. In the external validation, when only EPIC domain/ subdomain data are available, the OLS model using combined data predicted EQ5D utilities better than the counterpart RE model and OLS model using baseline data (RMSE=0.121108 & 0.111345). OLS model using baseline data outperformed other model types for algorithms with EPIC domains and demographics (RMSE=0.121757), while RE models outperformed the other two model types for algorithms with EPIC subdomains and demographic data, (0.112782) and for algorithms with EPIC domains/ subdomains, demographics, and clinical covariates (RMSE=0.123589 & 0.163093). Conclusions: While algorithms using pooled data outperformed other model types in internal validation, RE models showed better predictive ability in external validation for algorithms with covariates. Clinical trial information: NCT00331773.

327 Background: Though Black men with prostate cancer are more likely to have aggressive disease features than White men, race-specific differences in initial treatment responses in localized disease remains unknown. Methods: Individual patient data were obtained for 9259 patients (including 1674 [18.1%] Black men and 7585 [81.9%] White men) enrolled on eight randomized controlled trials evaluating definitive radiotherapy (RT) ± short-term or long-term androgen deprivation therapy (STADT and LTADT). The primary endpoints were biochemical recurrence (BCR), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Fine-Gray subdistribution HR (sHR) models were developed to evaluate the cumulative incidences of all endpoints after stratification by National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk grouping. A meta-analysis was done to estimate pair-wise comparisons of treatments within and between Black and White men, after adjusting for age, Gleason score, clinical T stage, and initial PSA. Results: Black men were more likely to have NCCN high-risk disease at enrollment (656/1674 [39.2%] vs 2506/7585 [33%], p<0.001). However, within the high-risk stratum Black men had lower 10-year rates of BCR (46.1% vs. 50.4%, p=0.02), DM (14% vs. 21.6%, p<0.001), and PCSM (4.9% vs. 9.8%, p<0.001). After adjusting for age and disease characteristics, Black men with high-risk prostate receiving RT+STADT had lower rates of BCR (sHR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.86, p<0.001), DM (sHR 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.84, p=0.001) and PCSM (sHR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25-0.95, p=0.04). There were no differences in BCR, DM, or PCSM among men receiving RT+LTADT. The interaction between race and the impact of adding STADT to RT alone on BCR was statistically significant (p=0.003). Conclusions: Black men enrolled on randomized trials with long-term follow-up have higher risk disease at enrollment, but have better BCR, DM, and PCSM outcomes with RT-based therapy compared with White men, particularly with the addition of STADT.

24 Background: The use of radical prostatectomy (RP) as initial treatment of high-risk/locally-advanced prostate cancer is increasing but patients (pts) with adverse pathologic features such as positive surgical margins or T3 disease have up to 70% recurrence risk. These high-risk pts may be managed with adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) or early salvage radiotherapy (ESRT). The optimal timing of post-operative radiotherapy is unclear. Methods: Individual data from 1566 consecutive pts with pT2N0M0/R1 or pT3N0M0/R0-1 disease who underwent post-prostatectomy ART or ESRT (1987-2013) at 10 academic centers were pooled. Post-irradiation freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF), freedom from distant metastases (FFDM), prostate-cancer specific survival (PCSS), and overall survival (OS) were compared using Kaplan-Meier and multivariate competing-risks regression (MVA) analyses. Propensity score (PS) matching was used to account for covariates potentially associated with treatment allocation. All outcomes were measured from the date of surgery to address lead time bias. Results: After PS-matching, median follow-up after surgery was 66 vs. 73 months for the ART and ESRT groups, respectively, and baseline characteristics were well-matched. ART was associated with higher FFBF (12-yr: 69% vs. 43%; log-rank P < 0.0001), FFDM (12-yr: 95% vs. 85%; log-rank P = 0.03), PCSS (12-yr: 99% vs. 94%; log-rank P = 0.048), and OS (12-yr: 91% vs. 79%; log-rank P = 0.01). ART, lower Gleason score, lower T-stage, nodal irradiation, and postoperative androgen deprivation therapy were favorable prognostic features on MVA for BF. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the decreased risk of BF associated with ART remained significant unless more than 56% of ART pts were cured by surgery alone. This threshold is greater than the estimated 12-yr FFBF of 46% after RP alone as determined by a contemporary nomogram. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this represents the largest multi-institutional study to date comparing ART to ESRT. ART was associated with reduced biochemical recurrence, distant metastases, and death compared to ESRT for high-risk pts, pending prospective validation.

9 Background: Early salvage radiation therapy (SRT) following radical prostatectomy (RP) has been shown to reduce biochemical recurrence and distant metastases. We aim to identify factors predictive of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) from a consortium database from 10 academic institutions. Methods: 2,454 node-negative patients (pts) with detectable post-prostatectomy PSA ( ≥ 0.01 ng/mL) treated with SRT ± neoadjuvant/concurrent androgen deprivation therapy (N/C ADT) were included. Cumulative incidence and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate rates of PCSM and ACM, respectively. Univariate and multivariable analyses (MVA) were performed by competing risks regression and Cox proportional hazards methods for PCSM and ACM. Results: Median follow-up was 5 years from SRT completion and 8 years from date of RP; 24% had pathologic Gleason score (GS) of ≤ 6, 56% GS 7, and 19% GS ≥ 8; 56% extraprostatic extension (EPE), 18% seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), 58% positive surgical margins, and 16% received N/C ADT. Median age at RP and SRT were 62 years (IQR 56-66) and 64 years (59-69), respectively. Median SRT dose was 66 Gy (IQR 65-68) and median pre-SRT PSA was 0.5 ng/mL (IQR 0.3-1.1). MVA performed from SRT completion date demonstrated higher pre-SRT PSA (HR = 2.1), higher GS (GS 7 vs. ≤ 6: HR 2.0; GS ≥ 8 vs. 6: HR 3.3) , SVI (HR 2.5), year of SRT (2000-2004, 1995-1999, 1985-1994 vs. 2005-2012; HR 2.9, HR 2.5, HR 3.6, respectively) were significantly associated with higher PCSM. These same variables were all significantly associated with higher PCSM and ACM rates calculated from both SRT completion date and date of RP. Conclusions: Initiation of early SRT at lower post-operative PSA levels following RP is associated with reduced risk of PCSM and ACM, even when calculated from RP date to account for lead time bias. Other factors significantly associated with PCSM include higher GS, SVI, and earlier year of SRT. [Table: see text]

1 Background: To determine whether the efficacy of a hypofractionated (H) schedule is no worse than a conventional (C) schedule in men with low-risk prostate cancer. Methods: From April 2006 to December 2009, one thousand one hundred fifteen men with low-risk prostate cancer (clinical stage T1-2a, Gleason ≤ 6, PSA < 10) were randomly assigned 1:1 to a conventional (C) schedule (73.8 Gy in 41 fractions over 8.2 weeks) or to a hypofractionated (H) schedule (70 Gy in 28 fractions over 5.6 weeks). The trial was designed to establish with 90% power and alpha = 0.05 that (H) results in 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) that is not lower than (C) by more than 7% (hazard ratio (HR) < 1.52). Secondary endpoints include freedom from biochemical recurrence (FFBR) and overall survival. At the third planned interim analysis (July 2015), the NRG Oncology Data Monitoring Committee recommended that the results of the trial be reported. Results: One thousand one hundred and one protocol eligible men were randomized: 547 to C and 554 to H. Median follow-up is 5.9 years. Baseline characteristics are not different according to treatment arm. At the time of analysis 185 DFS events have been observed; 99 in the C arm and 86 in the H arm. The estimated 7-year disease-free survival is 75.6% (95% CI 70.3, 80.1) in the C arm and 81.8% (77.5, 85.3) in the H arm. The DFS HR (C/H) is 0.85 (0.64, 1.14). Comparison of biochemical recurrence (HR = 0.77, (0.51, 1.17)) and overall survival (HR = 0.95, (0.65, 1.41)) also met protocol non-inferiority criteria. Grade ≥ 3 GI toxicity is 3.0% (C) vs. 4.6% (H), Relative risk (RR) for H vs. C 1.53, (95% CI 0.86, 2.83); grade ≥ 3 GU toxicity is 4.5% (C) vs. 6.4% (H), RR = 1.43 (0.86,2.37). Conclusions: In men with low-risk prostate cancer, 70 Gy in 28 fractions over 5.6 weeks is non-inferior to 73.8 Gy in 41 fractions over 8.2 weeks. Clinical trial information: NCT00331773.

Purpose We aimed to update a previously published, multi-institutional nomogram of outcomes for salvage radiotherapy (SRT) following radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer, including patients treated in the contemporary era. Methods Individual data from node-negative patients with a detectable post-RP prostate-specific antigen (PSA) treated with SRT with or without concurrent androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) were obtained from 10 academic institutions. Freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) and distant metastases (DM) rates were estimated, and predictive nomograms were generated. Results Overall, 2,460 patients with a median follow-up of 5 years were included; 599 patients (24%) had a Gleason score (GS) ≤ 6, 1,387 (56%) had a GS of 7, 244 (10%) had a GS of 8, and 230 (9%) had a GS of 9 to 10. There were 1,370 patients (56%) with extraprostatic extension (EPE), 452 (18%) with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), 1,434 (58%) with positive surgical margins, and 390 (16%) who received ADT (median, 6 months). The median pre-SRT PSA was 0.5 ng/mL (interquartile range, 0.3 to 1.1). The 5-yr FFBF rate was 56% overall, 71% for those with a pre-SRT PSA level of 0.01 to 0.2 ng/mL (n = 441), 63% for those with a PSA of 0.21 to 0.50 ng/mL (n = 822), 54% for those with a PSA of 0.51 to 1.0 ng/mL (n = 533), 43% for those with a PSA of 1.01 to 2.0 ng/mL (n = 341), and 37% for those with a PSA > 2.0 ng/mL (n = 323); P < .001. On multivariable analysis, pre-SRT PSA, GS, EPE, SVI, surgical margins, ADT use, and SRT dose were associated with FFBF. Pre-SRT PSA, GS, SVI, surgical margins, and ADT use were associated with DM, whereas EPE and SRT dose were not. The nomogram concordance indices were 0.68 (FFBF) and 0.74 (DM). Conclusion Early SRT at low PSA levels after RP is associated with improved FFBF and DM rates. Contemporary nomograms can estimate individual patient outcomes after SRT in the modern era.