Melton, L. Joseph

Abstract Hip fracture incidence appears to be declining in the United States, but changes in bone mineral density (BMD) of the population have not been evaluated. We used femur BMD data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2006 to estimate the prevalence of low femoral BMD in adults age 50 years and older and compared it with estimates from NHANES III (1988–1994). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry systems (pencil-beam geometry in NHANES III, fan-beam geometry in NHANES 2005–2006) were used to measure femur BMD, and World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of low BMD were used to categorize skeletal status. In 2005–2006, 49% of older US women had osteopenia and 10% had osteoporosis at the femur neck. In men, 30% had femur neck osteopenia and 2% had femur neck osteoporosis. An estimated 5.3 million older men and women had osteoporosis at the femur neck, and 34.5 million more had osteopenia in 2005–2006. When compared with NHANES III, the age-adjusted prevalence of femur neck osteoporosis in NHANES 2005–2006 was lower in men (by 3 percentage units) and women (by 7 percentage units) overall and among non-Hispanic whites. Changes in body mass index or osteoporosis medication use between surveys did not fully explain the decline in osteoporosis. Owing to the increase in the number of older adults in the US population, however, more older adults had low femur neck BMD (osteoporosis + osteopenia) in 2005–2006 than in 1988–1994. Thus, despite the decline in prevalence, the estimated number of affected older adults in 2005–2006 remained high. Copyright © 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

Abstract We found no significant excess of fractures among Rochester, MN, residents with diabetes mellitus initially recognized in 1950–1969, but more recent studies elsewhere have documented an apparent increase in hip fracture risk. To explore potential explanations for any increase in fractures, we performed an historical cohort study among 1964 Rochester residents who first met glycemic criteria for diabetes in 1970–1994 (mean age, 61.7 ± 14.0 yr; 51% men). Fracture risk was estimated by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and risk factors were evaluated in Andersen-Gill time-to-fracture regression models. In 23,236 person-years of follow-up, 700 diabetic residents experienced 1369 fractures documented by medical record review. Overall fracture risk was elevated (SIR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2–1.4), but hip fractures were increased only in follow-up beyond 10 yr (SIR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1–1.9). As expected, fracture risk factors included age, prior fracture, secondary osteoporosis, and corticosteroid use, whereas higher physical activity and body mass index were protective. Additionally, fractures were increased among patients with neuropathy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1–1.6) and those on insulin (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1–1.5); risk was reduced among users of biquanides (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6–0.96), and no significant influence on fracture risk was seen with sulfonylurea or thiazolidinedione use. Thus, contrary to our earlier study, the risk of fractures overall (and hip fractures specifically) was increased among Rochester residents with diabetes, but there was no evidence that the rise was caused by greater levels of obesity or newer treatments for diabetes.

Among 1138 newborns in a Level II nursery, breast-fed and formula-fed infants were comparable in terms of sex, mode of delivery, gestational age, birth weight, and birth temperature. Breast-fed neonates subsequently lost more weight and a greater percentage of their birth weight (mean, 7.4% vs. 4.9%) than did formula-fed infants. Loss of more than 10 percent of birth weight was associated with short gestation and low birth weight and with breast feeding. Birth weight loss of ≥3 percent was associated with a risk of fever (≥37.5°C) among breast-fed and formula-fed infants, but there was no gradient of increasing risk of fever with increasing percentage weight loss beyond 3 percent. After weight loss and other significant variables were adjusted for in a multivariate analysis, breast feeding was not independently predictive of fever. Although breast feeding may be associated with weight loss, it is not prudent to assume that this is the cause of fever in a breast-fed neonate.

Abstract Using QCT, we made a longitudinal, population-based assessment of rates of bone loss over life at the distal radius, distal tibia, and lumbar spine. Cortical bone loss began in perimenopause in women and later in life in men. In contrast, trabecular bone loss began in young adulthood in both sexes. Introduction: Although conventional wisdom holds that bone loss begins at menopause in women and later in life in men, this has not been examined longitudinally in population-based studies using precise technology capable of distinguishing cortical and trabecular bone. Materials and Methods: In an age- and sex-stratified population sample (n = 553), we measured volumetric BMD (vBMD) of trabecular and cortical bone by QCT annually for up to 3 yr at the distal radius (DR) and distal tibia (DT) (n = 552) and trabecular vBMD at baseline and 3 yr at the lumbar spine (LS) (n = 474). Results: Substantial cortical bone loss began in middle life in women but began mainly after age 75 in men. In contrast, substantial trabecular bone loss began in young adult women and men at all three skeletal sites and continued throughout life with acceleration during perimenopause in women. Women experienced 37% and men experienced 42% of their total lifetime trabecular bone loss before age 50 compared with 6% and 15%, respectively, for cortical bone. Median rates of change in trabecular bone (%/yr) were −0.40, −0.24, and −1.61 in young adult women and −0.38, −0.40, and −0.84 in young adult men at the DR, DT, and LS, respectively (all p < 0.001). The early trabecular bone loss did not consistently correlate with putative causal factors, except for a trend with IGF-related variables at DT in women. However, in postmenopausal women and, to a lesser extent, in older men, higher rates of cortical and trabecular bone loss were associated with lower levels of biologically-active sex steroids and with higher levels of follicle-stimulating hormone and bone turnover markers. Conclusions: The late onset of cortical bone loss is temporally associated with sex steroid deficiency. However, the early-onset, substantial trabecular bone loss in both sexes during sex steroid sufficiency is unexplained and indicates that current paradigms on the pathogenesis of osteoporosis are incomplete.

Purpose Atypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed. Patients and Methods Women with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time. Results With mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years. Conclusion Among women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate “very high risk” status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

Abstract Elevated serum IGFBP-2 is associated with lower BMD in men and women. It is unknown whether IGFBP-2 serves as a negative regulator of bone metabolism by decreasing bone formation or increasing bone resorption. Studying an age-stratified community-based sample of 344 men and 276 women, IGFBP-2 was the strongest predictor of increased bone resorption among the IGF/IGFBPs studied. Introduction: Serum insulin-like growth factor binding protein-2 (IGFBP-2), which increases with age, is a predictor of low BMD among aging men and women. However, it is unknown whether IGFBP-2 negatively influences bone metabolism by decreasing bone formation or increasing bone resorption. Few have examined the relation between the insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) with bone turnover markers. Materials and Methods: In an age-stratified, random sample of the community, we examined the association between serum IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, −2, and −3, and bone turnover markers before and after adjustment for potential confounders (age, body mass index, bioavailable estradiol and testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin). Analyses were stratified by sex and menopausal status. Results: We studied 344 men (age range, 23–90 yr) and 276 women (age range, 21–93 yr; 166 postmenopausal) not on oral contraceptives or hormone replacement. Among the IGF/IGFBPs assessed, IGFBP-2 was the strongest and most consistent predictor of bone turnover in men and women. After adjustment for potential confounders, IGFBP-2 was positively associated with osteocalcin (OC) and urine and serum N-teleopeptide (NTX) in men (r = 0.20, 0.26, and 0.23, respectively; p &lt; 0.001), serum C-telopeptide (CTX) in premenopausal women (r = 0.28; p &lt; 0.01), and OC, urine NTX, and serum CTX in postmenopausal women (r = 0.24, 0.33, and 0.19, respectively; p &lt; 0.05). Conclusions: Higher serum IGFBP-2, which is predictive of lower BMD, is associated with increased markers of bone resorption, independent of age, body mass, and sex hormones. The association between IGFBP-2 and markers of bone formation may reflect coupling with increased bone resorption, which is not adequate to maintain BMD.