Lipner, Rebecca S.

Objective Diagnostic error is a key healthcare concern and can result in substantial morbidity and mortality. Yet no study has investigated the relationship between adverse outcomes resulting from diagnostic errors and one potentially large contributor to these errors: deficiencies in diagnostic knowledge. Our objective was to measure that associations between diagnostic knowledge and adverse outcomes after visits to primary care physicians that were at risk for diagnostic errors. Setting/participants 1410 US general internists who recently took their American Board of Internal Medicine Maintenance of Certification (ABIM-IM-MOC) exam treating 42 407 Medicare beneficiaries who experienced 48 632 ‘index’ outpatient visits for new problems at risk for diagnostic error because the presenting problem (eg, dizziness) was related to prespecified diagnostic error sensitive conditions (eg, stroke). Outcome measures 90-day risk of all-cause death, and, for outcome conditions related to the index visits diagnosis, emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalisations. Design Using retrospective cohort study design, we related physician performance on ABIM-IM-MOC diagnostic exam questions to patient outcomes during the 90-day period following an index visit at risk for diagnostic error after controlling for practice characteristics, patient sociodemographic and baseline clinical characteristics. Results Rates of 90-day adverse outcomes per 1000 index visits were 7 for death, 11 for hospitalisations and 14 for ED visits. Being seen by a physician in the top versus bottom third of diagnostic knowledge during an index visit for a new problem at risk for diagnostic error was associated with 2.9 fewer all-cause deaths (95% CI −5.0 to −0.7, p=0.008), 4.1 fewer hospitalisations (95% CI −6.9 to −1.2, p=0.006) and 4.9 fewer ED visits (95% CI −8.1% to −1.6%, p=0.003) per 1000 visits. Conclusion Higher diagnostic knowledge was associated with lower risk of adverse outcomes after visits for problems at heightened risk for diagnostic error.

Background and objectives Medical specialty and subspecialty fellowship programs administer subject-specific in-training examinations to provide feedback about level of medical knowledge to fellows preparing for subsequent board certification. This study evaluated the association between the American Society of Nephrology In-Training Examination and the American Board of Internal Medicine Nephrology Certification Examination in terms of scores and passing status. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The study included 1684 nephrology fellows who completed the American Society of Nephrology In-Training Examination in their second year of fellowship training between 2009 and 2014. Regression analysis examined the association between In-Training Examination and first-time Nephrology Certification Examination scores as well as passing status relative to other standardized assessments. Results This cohort included primarily men (62%) and international medical school graduates (62%), and fellows had an average age of 32 years old at the time of first completing the Nephrology Certification Examination. An overwhelming majority (89%) passed the Nephrology Certification on their first attempt. In-Training Examination scores showed the strongest association with first-time Nephrology Certification Examination scores, accounting for approximately 50% of the total explained variance in the model. Each SD increase in In-Training Examination scores was associated with a difference of 30 U (95% confidence interval, 27 to 33) in certification performance. In-Training Examination scores also were significantly associated with passing status on the Nephrology Certification Examination on the first attempt (odds ratio, 3.46 per SD difference in the In-Training Examination; 95% confidence interval, 2.68 to 4.54). An In-Training Examination threshold of 375, approximately 1 SD below the mean, yielded a positive predictive value of 0.92 and a negative predictive value of 0.50. Conclusions American Society of Nephrology In-Training Examination performance is significantly associated with American Board of Internal Medicine Nephrology Certification Examination score and passing status.