O’Fallon, W. Michael

The effect of cigarette smoking on extracranial carotid atherosclerosis was studies by obtaining cigarette smoking histories and information on other potential risk factors from consecutive patients undergoing carotid arteriography. At least on extracranial carotid artery was visualized in 752 patients in whom the extent of carotid atherosclerosis was assessed. The total years of cigarette smoking was the most significant independent predictor of the presence of severe carotid atherosclerosis. Other independent predictors, in order of significance, were age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, male sex, and current systolic blood pressure. By age 60 years, the risk of having severe carotid atherosclerosis for a person who had smoked for 40 years was approximately 3.5 times that for a never smoker. The major benefit of smoking cessation is in limiting the accumulation of smoking years.

We studied subarachnoid hemorrhage in the population of Rochester, Minnesota, for the 40-year period from 1945 through 1984. The average annual incidence rate of subarachnoid hemorrhage in Rochester has remained constant at approximately 11 per 100,000 population. Age-specific incidence rates increased with age. However, the average annual mortality rate for subarachnoid hemorrhage in Rochester has shown a decreasing trend, from 6.8 per 100,000 population in 1955-1964 to 4.3 in 1975-1984. It is likely that this is due to a decrease in case-fatality rates from 57% in 1945-1974 to 42% in 1975-1984 (p = 0.10). This decreasing trend was also evident in annual mortality rates from subarachnoid hemorrhage for US white men and women. The reason for the improved case-fatality rate is unclear, but it may be related to changes in management. The interval from onset of subarachnoid hemorrhage to surgery decreased from a median of 12 days in 1975-1979 to 2 days in 1980-1984, and of those who survived to receive medical attention, more patients received some form of medical treatment in 1980-1984. Whether either or both of these changes have led to the decrease in the case-fatality rate is uncertain.

Studies of the population of Rochester, Minnesota, have provided the only data on temporal trends for the incidence of stroke in North America. Among the residents of Rochester, the average annual incidence rate of stroke declined by 46%, from 213 to 115 per 100,000 population, between 1950-1954 and 1975-1979. The decline occurred in all age and sex groups, but it occurred earlier in women than in men. The rates stabilized in the 1970s, and did so earlier in women. For 1980-1984, the incidence rate of stroke was 17% higher than that for 1975-1979. The onset of the decline in incidence rates coincided with the introduction of effective antihypertensive therapy, but stabilized and increased rates were associated with continuing improvement in the control of hypertension. The increase in the incidence rates of stroke coincided with the introduction of computed tomography, which appeared to increase the detection of less severe strokes.

Abstract To determine whether Colles' fracture, generally considered a manifestation of postmenopausal osteoporosis, is associated with a decrease in bone density at the site of fracture, we measured bone mineral density of the ultradistal radius (UDR-BMD) by single-photon absorptiometry with computer-assisted image processing. In 119 normal women (ages 22–92 years), UDR-BMD decreased by 17% between ages 30 and 75 years. From UDR-BMD measurements in these normal women and in 40 women (ages 53–80 years) with Colles' fracture alone, a population-based analysis was made to estimate fracture risk at different values of UDR-BMD. Colles' fracture was uncommon at UDR-BMD > 0.40 g/cm2 (the “fracture threshold”). As bone density decreased below this level, fractures became more frequent (a “gradient of risk”).

AbstractIn a series of postmenopausal women previously studied by our group, pernicious anemia was associated with reduced bone mineral density of the spine and with vertebral fractures. To determine whether osteoporotic fractures represent an important clinical problem for such patients, we conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all Rochester, Minnesota residents newly diagnosed with pernicious anemia from 1950 through 1979. These 131 individuals were followed through the inpatient and outpatient records of all medical care providers in the community for 1550 person-years. In comparison with fracture rates from the general community, patients with pernicious anemia had a 1.9-fold increase in proximal femur fractures, a 1.8-fold increase in vertebral fractures, and a 2.9-fold increase in distal forearm fractures (all p < 0.05). Increases in the risk of proximal humerus and pelvis fractures were not statistically significant. Clinicians should be aware that pernicious anemia is associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures, but the mechanism is unknown.

AbstractIn a population-based retrospective cohort study, Rochester women aged 35–69 years who were first diagnosed with one or more vertebral fractures in 1950–1979 were followed for the development of a subsequent hip fracture. The 336 women with no history of hip fracture at the time of their vertebral fracture experienced 52 proximal femur fractures in 4788 person-years of follow-up. The standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of observed to expected hip fractures was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3–2.4) and was higher for intertrochanteric than cervical femoral fractures (SMR, 2.3 versus 1.3; P = 0.07). Hip fracture risk among women with symptomatic vertebral fractures was slightly less than in those with asymptomatic vertebral fractures (SMR, 1.8 versus 2.3; not significant), and younger women had no higher risk of a subsequent hip fracture than women who were ≥60 years of age at the time of their vertebral fracture (SMR, 1.4 versus 1.8; not significant). Alternative explanations are possible, but these data are consistent with heterogeneity in the pathogenesis of different osteoporotic fractures.

Abstract Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the lumbar spine and cervical and intertrochanteric regions of the proximal femur by dual-photon absorptiometry and bone mineral content was assessed at the distal and midradius by single-photon absorptiometry in an age-stratified random sample of 304 Rochester, Minnesota women aged 30–94 years. Over follow-up extending to 10 years (median 8.3 years), 93 women experienced 163 new fractures. After adjusting for age, these bone mineral measurements predicted the likelihood of any incident fracture due to moderate trauma, with relative hazards varying from 1.4 to 1.6 per SD decrease in baseline bone mineral. A 1 SD decrease in lumbar spine BMD increased the risk of a new vertebral fracture comparably to a 17 year increase in age; a 1 SD decrease in femoral BMD was comparable to a 13–14 year increase in age on the risk of a hip fracture. We conclude that bone mineral measurements made at a variety of skeletal sites can predict the occurrence for at least 8–10 years of moderate trauma fractures of the sort that might be related to osteoporosis.

We reviewed the records of pregnant diabetic women attended at Mayo Clinic during the years 1950–79 and matched each nonaborted diabetic pregnancy with two control pregnancies. Abortions occurred in 49 of 277 diabetic pregnancies (17.7%). The relative risk of other adverse outcomes of pregnancy (± 95% confidence interval) in comparison with controls was as follows: perinatal mortality, 7.0 (3.6–13.8); major congenital birth defects, 6.3 (2.8–14.2); and respiratory distress, 9.0 (4.5–17.9). Diabetic ketoacidosis resulted in fetal death in 5 of 18 cases. Patients with mean fasting blood glucose levels of ≤ 140 mg/dl had a perinatal mortality of 81 per 1000 births and an incidence of respiratory distress and congenital birth defects of 18.9% and 9.9%, respectively. Patients with mean blood glucose levels > 140 mg/dl had corresponding rates of 306 per 1000, 20.4%, and 11.2%, respectively. Hydramnios occurred almost exclusively in diabetic women, and its presence was associated with a twofold increase in the frequency of perinatal death. Analysis of diabetic pregnancy outcome by decade showed no appreciable decrease in the occurrence of perinatal mortality, congenital birth defects, or respiratory distress over the 30-yr period.

To determine comparative rates of development and progression of peripheral occlusive arterial disease, 110 healthy nondiabetic control subjects, 112 patients with peripheral occlusive arterial disease (POAD), 240 patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), and 100 patientswith diabetes mellitus and peripheral occlusive arterialdisease (DM + POAD) were studied over 4 yr with noninvasive techniques. The presence of peripheral occlusive arterial disease was determined by postexercise ankle-brachial index (ABI) values; progression of peripheral occlusive arterial disease was determined by the rate of change in postexercise ABI. Patients who underwent peripheral arterial reconstructive surgery or amputation were also classified as having progression of their peripheral occlusive arterial disease. On this basis, follow-up revealed that peripheral occlusive arterial disease developed and therefore progressed in 1 (1%) of the control group and 22 (9%) of the DM. Peripheral occlusive arterial disease progressed in 31 (28%) of the POAD and 26 (26%) of the DM + POAD. The presence of peripheral occlusive arterial disease predisposes to progression of disease, and peripheral occlusive arterial disease is more likely to develop in diabetic patients who do not have peripheral occlusive arterial disease than in nondiabetic control subjects. However, the presence of diabetes mellitus in patients with peripheral occlusive arterial disease does not seem to increase the risk of progression.

Abstract Long-term fracture prediction using bone mineral density remains controversial, as does the additional contribution from assessing bone turnover or clinical risk factors. We measured bone mineral density at various sites, along with biochemical markers of bone turnover, sex steroid levels, and over 100 clinical variables, at baseline on an age-stratified sample of 304 Rochester, MN women in 1980. The 225 postmenopausal women were subsequently followed for 3146 person-years (median, 16.2 years per subject), wherein they experienced 302 new fractures: 81% resulted from minimal or moderate trauma and 60% of these involved the proximal femur, thoracic or lumbar vertebrae, or distal forearm. Accounting for multiple fractures per subject, these osteoporotic fractures together were best predicted by baseline femoral neck bone mineral density (age-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per SD decrease, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.10–1.70); 19 moderate trauma forearm fractures were best predicted by distal radius bone mineral content, whereas 28 hip fractures and 100 vertebral fractures were best predicted by femoral neck bone mineral density. Femoral neck bone mineral density performed comparably in predicting osteoporotic fracture risk within the first decade of follow-up (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.10–1.74) as well as more than 10 years after baseline (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.05–1.84). The older biochemical markers were not associated with fractures, but serum “free” estradiol index was independently predictive of short- and long-term fracture risk. Consistent clinical risk factors were not identified, but statistical power was limited. Identifying patients at increased long-term risk of fracture is challenging, but it is reassuring that femoral neck bone mineral density can predict osteoporotic fractures up to 20 years later.