Zalcberg, John

617 Background: There is limited, often conflicting evidence about AE timing, severity or associations with outcomes with the use of cytotoxic agents in cancer treatment. We investigated the impact on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of selected common AEs (neutropenia, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, neuropathy) occurring in patients receiving first line oxaliplatin (Oxa)- and/or irinotecan(Iri)-based regimens for mCRC. Methods: The CTCAE grading scores of at least one AE of interest were available on 9812 pts treated with chemotherapy alone (median age 63; 62.4% male, 50.1% ECOG PS 0) from 17 1st-line randomized trials. Patients who also received biologics were excluded in the primary analyses. AEs occurring during the first 6 weeks of treatment and entire treatment were analyzed by stratified multivariable Cox models in relationship to OS/PFS. 55.7% pts received Oxa- regimens, 35.7% Iri-regimens, and 8.6% combined Oxa- and Iri-regimens. Results: Within the first 6 weeks of treatment, G3+ neutropenia (HRadj= 1.3, 95% CI, 1.06-1.59, padj 0.01), diarrhea (HRadj= 1.48, 95% CI, 1.23-1.79, padj < .0001), nausea (HRadj= 1.53, 95% CI, 1.17-1.99, padj 0.002) and vomiting (HRadj= 1.56, 95% CI, 1.18-2.07, padj 0.002) were associated with significantly worse OS for Iri-regimens, but only G3+ nausea predicted for worse OS for Oxa- regimens (HRadj= 1.61, 95% CI, 1.18-2.21, padj 0.003). For AEs experienced at any time, G3+ neutropenia and neuropathy were significantly associated with longer PFS and OS for Oxa-regimens, while G3+ vomiting and nausea were associated with worse OS for both Oxa- and Iri-based regimens. Sensitivity analysis showed largely concordant results by including pts who also received biologics. Conclusions: The association between more severe selected AEs and outcome varies between AEs and is influenced by timing of the occurrence. More severe selected AEs occurring early in treatment are associated with worse outcomes. In contrast, for AEs occurring at any time, G3+ neutropenia and neuropathy predicted for longer PFS and/or OS in Oxa-treated pts.

TPS4136 Background: AGOC has a poor prognosis with no established standard treatment following failure of chemotherapy (CT). Regorafenib (BAY 73-4506)(REG) is an oral multi-kinase inhibitor targeting kinases involved in angiogenesis (VEGFR1-3, TIE-2), tumor microenvironment (PDGFR-β, FGFR), and oncogenesis (RAF, RET and KIT). INTEGRATE (phase 2) demonstrated REG was highly effective in prolonging PFS across a range of AGOC pts, with a positive OS trend. Regional differences were found in magnitude of effect, but REG was effective in all regions/subgroups. The phase 3 INTEGRATE II will explore whether REG is effective in prolonging survival in patients overall, and in the Asian sub-population. Methods: International (Australia/New Zealand (NHMRC CTC); Canada (CCTG), Korea, Japan, Taiwan, USA (ACCRU)) randomised phase III, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with 2:1 (REG:placebo)(PBO) randomisation and stratification by: Location of tumour, Geographic region, prior VEGF inhibitors. Eligible patients (histologically confirmed AGOC), with evaluable metastatic or locally advanced disease refractory to, or relapsed following second line CT, will receive best supportive care plus 160mg REG or matched placebo orally on days 1-21 of each 28 day cycle until disease progression or prohibitive adverse events. Primary endpoint is OS. Secondary endpoints: PFS, response rate, quality of life, safety, identification of prognostic/predictive biomarkers for study endpoints, and REG PK across geographical regions. 350 patients (50% from Asia) randomized in a 2:1 ratio will provide 90% power to detect a hazard ratio (HR) for OS of 0.67 with a 2-sided α of 0.05 assuming PBO median survival is 4.5 mos. The sample size accommodates 2 interim analyses undertaken at 1/3 and 2/3 of required events. As of January 2017, 12 of 28 planned ANZ sites are open, with 4 patients enrolled. Regulatory approval has been received for 12 Canadian sites, and 12 Korean sites. Korean recruitment is expected to commence in February 2017. Regulatory submissions are pending in Taiwan, Japan, and the USA. Clinical trial information: NCT02773524.

3582 Background: The prognostic importance of the incidence, severity, type and duration of AEs pts experience during chemotherapy varies between tumor types, and the available evidence across the board is often conflicting. Here we investigated the impact of the overall severity of AEs among pts with mCRC receiving first-line oxaliplatin (Oxa)- and/or irinotecan(Iri)-based regimens. Methods: The overall severity of AE data (i.e., max grade (G) of all AEs) were available on 3,971 pts (median age 61; 60% male, 47% ECOG PS 1+; 57% 2+ metastatic sites) enrolled onto 6 1st-line randomized trials. Around 46%, 45%, and 9% of pts had received Oxa-, Iri-, and Oxa+Iri-based regimens, respectively. Pts receiving biologic agents were excluded. Stratified multivariate Cox models were used to assess the associations with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS); adjusted hazard ratios (HRadj) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Results: Pts who only received Oxa-based treatment reported the lowest rate of G3+ AEs (p < .0001) compared to pts treated with Iri- or Oxa+Iri-based regimens. Older age, female gender, and PS 1 or 2+ were associated with higher grade AEs (all p < .0001). Considering AEs experienced within 6w after randomization, 10% and 61% of pts experienced G4+ and G2-3 AEs, respectively. G3+ AEs were associated with a shorter OS for both pts receiving Oxa- (HRadj= 1.2, 95% CI, 1.1-1.3, padj < .0001) and Iri-based regimens (HRadj= 1.4, 95% CI, 1.2-1.5, padj < .0001). For the entire treatment course, 19% and 72% of pts experienced G4+ and G2-3 AEs, respectively. For Oxa-based regimens, pts with G3+ AEs had a longer OS (HRadj= 0.86, 95% CI, 0.78-0.94, padj = .0016), whereas G3+ AEs were associated with a shorter OS (HRadj= 1.2, 95% CI, 1.1-1.4, padj = .0004) for pts treated with Iri-based regimens. Similar patterns were seen for PFS. Conclusions: Pts who reported higher grade AEs during initial treatment (≤6w) have significantly worse outcome than those who do not. Further analyses with treatment exposure/detailed dose-AE profile and its impact on survival are warranted.

766 Background: Tumor-size-based endpoints such as depth of response have recently become a focus of investigations related to search for early on-treatment predictive markers for patients with colorectal cancer (Piessevaux et al. 2013; Cremolini et al., 2015; Heinemann et al., 2015). We evaluate the use of time-to-nadir (TTN) and depth-of-nadir (DoN) as potential surrogates for overall survival (OS). Methods: We have used the data from trials included in the ARCAD Advanced Colorectal Cancer Database. We have considered three sets of treatment comparisons: comparisons involving only chemotherapy agents (CT); involving anti-angiogenesic agents (ANG); and involving anti-EGFR agents (EGFR). For each of the sets separately, we applied a two-stage modelling approach (Renard et al. 2002) to jointly analyze the relative change of tumor size versus baseline (RCTS) and OS. In particular, in the first stage, a joint model for the repeated measurements of RCTS and OS was fitted to the data. Based on the model, treatment effects on OS and RCTS were estimated. Treatment effects on OS were expressed as log-hazard-ratios, while the effects on RCTS were expressed in terms of differences in the time-to-nadir (TTN) and in the depth of nadir (DoN). In the second stage, a linear regression was fitted through the estimated treatment effects on TTN/DoN and OS. The coefficient of determination (R2), computed by using the comparison-specific sample-size as weights, was used to quantify the strength of association between the treatment effects on TTN/DoN and OS. In particular, values of R2 larger than 0.75 were considered as indicating a good surrogate. Results: The CT set included 18 comparisons with 5726 pts. in total. For the treatment effects on TTN and OS, the value of R2 was estimated to be equal to 0.31, while for DoN and OS, it was equal to 0.01. For the ANG set (11 comparisons, 3964 pts.) the values of R2 were equal to 0.26 and 0.21, respectively, while for the EGFR set (16 comparisons, 4687 pts.) they were equal to 0.10 and 0.45, respectively. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that TTN and DoN are not good surrogates for OS in advanced colorectal cancer. More detailed analyses are ongoing and will be presented at the meeting.

666 Background: Early tumor shrinkage (ETS; ≥20% decrease from baseline) and early objective tumor response (EOTR; CR/PR by RECIST) are associated with improved PFS/OS to a similar extent than best overall response (BOR), confirmed response (ConfR) and non-progression rate (NPR; CR/PR/SD by RECIST) at the individual level in first-line mCRC (ASCO 2014, abstr 3538/3578). We assessed these RBEs at the trial level. Methods: Data were available on 12,185 pts enrolled in a total of 17 randomized trials of chemotherapy (CT) alone or with targeted agents (TAs). ETS, EOTR and NPR were assessed at 6/8/9 and 12 weeks (wks), whereas BOR and ConfR were ascertained within 26 wks from randomization. Association between treatment effects on RBEs and on PFS/OS was assessed by coefficients of determination (R2, adjusted for estimation errors) using a copula model). Results: None of the RBEs had consistently strong correlations with PFS or OS (Table). The number of trials was insufficient to obtain reliable estimates for antiangiogenics and anti-EGFR separately. Conclusions: Despite their individual-level associations with PFS and OS, RBEs do not appear to be surrogate endpoints in first-line mCRC, given their poor predictive ability. [Table: see text]

659 Background: Prospective survival prediction of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer is difficult. Prognosis estimation based on readily available clinicopathologic factors has the potential to inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials. We constructed prognostic nomograms for OS and PFS in mCRC using the multi-trial ARCAD database. Methods: Data from 19,678 mCRC pts accrued to 24 first line randomized phase III clinical trials since 1997 were used to construct and validate Cox models for PFS and OS, stratified by treatment arm within each study. Candidate variables included age, gender, BMI, performance status, colon vs. rectal cancer, prior chemotherapy, number of metastatic sites, sites of metastases (liver, lung, lymph nodes), and baseline bilirubin, albumin, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, and derived neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (dNLR). Missing data (<11%) were imputed, continuous variables modeled with splines, and clinically relevant pairwise interactions considered if p<0.001. Final models were internally validated via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices, and externally validated using a 10% holdout sample from each trial. Results: Nomograms for OS and PFS including remaining variables were well calibrated with C-indices of 0.66 and 0.60, respectively. Evaluation of external validity revealed good concordance; 71% and 67% respectively between predicted (> vs. <50% probability) and actual (yes/no) 1-year OS and 6-month PFS, and median 1-year OS and 6-month PFS predictions fell within the actual 95% Kaplan-Meier intervals. Gender, liver and lung metastases, and dNLR were not prognostic for OS; prior chemo, colon vs. rectum, dNLR, liver and lymph node metastases, and gender did not predict for PFS. No clinically relevant pairwise interactions were identified. Conclusions: The proposed nomograms are well calibrated and internally and externally valid. These tools have the potential to aid prognostication and patient/physician communication, and balance risk in randomized trials in mCRC.

PurposeProgression-free survival (PFS) has previously been established as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) for first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Because mCRC treatment has advanced in the last decade with extended OS, this surrogacy requires re-examination.MethodsIndividual patient data from 16,762 patients were available from 22 first-line mCRC studies conducted from 1997 to 2006; 12 of those studies tested antiangiogenic and/or anti–epidermal growth factor receptor agents. The relationship between PFS (first event of progression or death) and OS was evaluated by using R2statistics (the closer the value is to 1, the stronger the correlation) from weighted least squares regression of trial-specific hazard ratios estimated by using Cox and Copula models.ResultsForty-four percent of patients received a regimen that included biologic agents. Median first-line PFS was 8.3 months, and median OS was 18.2 months. The correlation between PFS and OS was modest (R2, 0.45 to 0.69). Analyses limited to trials that tested treatments with biologic agents, nonstrategy trials, or superiority trials did not improve surrogacy.ConclusionIn modern mCRC trials, in which survival after the first progression exceeds time to first progression, a positive but modest correlation was observed between OS and PFS at both the patient and trial levels. This finding demonstrates the substantial variability in OS introduced by the number of lines of therapy and types of effective subsequent treatments and the associated challenge to the use of OS as an end point to assess the benefit attributable to a single line of therapy. PFS remains an appropriate primary end point for first-line mCRC trials to detect the direct treatment effect of new agents.