Gray, Elizabeth

AbstractChemotherapy‐induced peripheral neuropathy (henceforth, neuropathy) is often dose limiting and is generally managed by empirical dose modifications. We aimed to (1) identify an early time point that is predictive of future neuropathy using a patient‐reported outcome and (2) propose a dose‐adjustment algorithm based on simulated data to manage neuropathy. In previous work, a dose‐neuropathy model was developed using dosing and patient‐reported outcome data from Cancer and Leukemia Group B 40502 (Alliance), a randomized phase III trial of paclitaxel, nanoparticle albumin–bound paclitaxel or ixabepilone as first‐line chemotherapy for locally recurrent or metastatic breast cancer. In the current work, an early time point that is predictive of the future severity of neuropathy was identified based on predictive accuracy of the model. Using the early data and model parameters, simulations were conducted to propose a dose‐adjustment algorithm for the prospective management of neuropathy in individual patients. The end of the first 3 cycles (12 weeks) was identified as the early time point based on a predictive accuracy of 75% for the neuropathy score after 6 cycles. For paclitaxel, nanoparticle albumin–bound paclitaxel, and ixabepilone, simulations with the proposed dose‐adjustment algorithm resulted in 61%, 48%, and 35% fewer patients, respectively, with neuropathy score ≥8 after 6 cycles compared to no dose adjustment. We conclude that early patient‐reported outcome data on neuropathy can be used to guide dose adjustments in individual patients that reduce the severity of future neuropathy. Prospective validation of this approach should be undertaken in future studies.

Purpose The optimal end point for randomized phase II trials of anticancer therapies remains controversial. We simulated phase II trials by resampling patients from N9741, a randomized phase III trial of chemotherapy regimens for metastatic colorectal cancer, and compared the power of various end points to detect the superior therapy (FOLFOX [infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin] had longer overall survival than both IROX [irinotecan plus oxaliplatin] and IFL [irinotecan and bolus fluorouracil plus leucovorin]). Methods Tumor measurements and progression-free survival (PFS) data were obtained for 1,471 patients; 1,002 had consistently measured tumors and were resampled (5,000 replicates) to simulate two-arm, randomized phase II trials with α = 0.10 (one sided) and 20 to 80 patients per arm. End points included log ratio of tumor size at 6, 12, and 18 weeks relative to baseline; time to tumor growth (TTG), estimated using a nonlinear mixed-effects model; and PFS. Arms were compared using rank sum tests for log ratio and TTG and a log-rank test for PFS. Results For FOLFOX versus IFL, TTG and PFS had similar power, with both exceeding the power of log ratio at 18 weeks; for FOLFOX versus IROX, TTG and log ratio at 18 weeks had similar power, with both exceeding the power of PFS. The best end points exhibited > 80% power with 60 to 80 patients per arm. Conclusion TTG is a powerful end point for randomized phase II trials of cytotoxic therapies in metastatic colorectal cancer; it was either comparable or superior to PFS and log ratio at 18 weeks. Additional studies will be needed to clarify the potential of TTG as a phase II end point.