Stoller, Douglas A.

PURPOSE The Lynch syndrome (LS) genes, MLH1 , MSH2 , MSH6 , and PMS2 , are considered to be some of the highest-priority genes to be tested for population genomic screening, with the aim to prevent and detect cancers early in those with a higher risk for such diagnoses. The objective of this study was to determine the risk of cancer associated with pathogenic variants in MLH1 , MSH2 , MSH6 , or PMS2 in the general population to build evidence-based guidelines for population genomic screening METHODS This retrospective case-control study uses Helix Research Network data from 230,159 participants across nine US health systems. Variant interpretation was performed following the American College of Medical Genetics and Association for Molecular Pathology guidelines. Clinical diagnoses were identified from electronic health records and claims data for 11 cancer types associated with LS, including colorectal and endometrial cancers. RESULTS Individuals with pathogenic variants in MLH1 , MSH2 , and MSH6 showed substantial risk for LS-related cancers compared with those without pathogenic variants. Conversely, individuals with pathogenic variants in PMS2 had no increase in risk for all 11 LS-associated cancers with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.0 (95% CI, 0.6 to 1.8) compared with those without a pathogenic variant. There was a small increase in risk when restricting the analysis to colorectal cancer with an HR of 3.5 (1.7-7.4). This increase in colorectal cancer risk was predominantly observed after age 60 years, 10 years after US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines recommend starting colonoscopies for the average population. Up to age 60 years, 2.6% of individuals with PMS2 pathogenic variants were diagnosed with colorectal cancer, closer to the general population (0.7%) than those with MLH1 (37.3%), MSH2 (28.9%), or MSH6 (6.7%) pathogenic variants. For 100,000 individuals screened for PMS2 , 854 additional colonoscopies would be performed, which would prevent or detect early 3.2 colorectal cancers. CONCLUSION This analysis across nine health systems highlights the clinical phenotypes of PMS2 pathogenic germline variants in the entire population.