Mavros, Michail N.

ABSTRACT Background Postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major source of morbidity and mortality. Real‐time risk stratification for VTE is important to guide measures for thromboprophylaxis. We sought to compare the discrimination of three VTE predictive systems in classifying 90‐day postoperative VTE among cancer patients undergoing pancreas and liver surgery using administrative data. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of the 2001–2015 SEER‐Medicare data for patients with newly diagnosed primary pancreatic or liver malignancies who underwent surgery. The primary outcome was 90‐day postoperative VTE (including deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism [PE]). We used the 2001–2010 dataset to create a new VTE predictive model using multivariable logistic regression. We then compared the discrimination of the Caprini score (adapted for claims data), the Elixhauser comorbidity score, and the new predictive model using the 2011–2015 dataset. Results Our sample included 15 479 patients (12 005 pancreas and 3474 liver surgery). Median age was 74 years (interquartile range: 69–78) and 7619 were female (49%). The overall incidence of 90‐day VTE was 10.0% (90‐day PE: 4.5%). The new VTE model included age, race, history of VTE, cancer stage, preoperative chemotherapy, and Elixhauser score. The discrimination of all predictive models was modest for both VTE ( c ‐statistic 63.0%, 59.4%, and 67.8%) and PE (61.5%, 59.7%, 65.6% for Caprini, Elixhauser, and new score respectively). Conclusions The existing tools for predicting postoperative VTE show poor performance using claims data. Future research should supplement administrative data with additional data sources to better predict patients at high risk for postoperative VTE.

Background: ASCO recommends extended venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) following cancer surgery. However, these recommendations were based on trials using routine venography, which detects asymptomatic VTEs, and real-life efficacy is not well studied. We aimed to assess the association of extended VTE prophylaxis with the incidence of clinically significant VTE after elective cancer surgery. Patients and Methods: In this retrospective, population-based cohort study, we identified patients who underwent surgical resection for lung, breast, esophageal, gastric, pancreas, and colon cancer from 2010 to 2017 using the SEER–Medicare linked dataset. Patients were divided into 1 of 2 main groups for comparative analyses: those who received extended VTE prophylaxis after cancer surgery and those who did not. Patients who received extended VTE prophylaxis after cancer surgery were identified as those prescribed prophylactic doses of LMWH or a DOAC within 7 days of discharge, as captured in Medicare Part D files. Results: A total of 113,739 Medicare beneficiaries were identified, of whom 1,570 (1.4%) received extended VTE prophylaxis. There was a year-over-year increase in the use of extended VTE prophylaxis during the study period, rising from 0.6% in 2010 to 3.3% in 2017. The overall incidence of VTE was 1.6% at 1 month, 4.3% at 6 months, 5.7% at 12 months, with significant differences observed across cancer types ( P <.001). However, patients who received extended VTE prophylaxis had a higher 1-year cumulative incidence of postoperative VTE compared with those who did not (11.4% vs 5.3%; P <.001), an association that was consistent across cancer sites. In adjusted analyses, extended VTE prophylaxis was independently associated with an increased risk of VTE (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3–2.0; P <.001). Extended prophylaxis was also associated with a higher 1-year incidence of bleeding events compared with patients who did not receive prophylaxis (12.0% vs 8.5%; P <.001). Conclusions: The utilization of extended VTE prophylaxis after cancer surgery remains low, although it has increased every year. Paradoxically, patients who received extended VTE prophylaxis had higher incidences of clinically significant VTE and bleeding compared with those who did not, likely reflecting patient selection and surveillance bias after surgery. In light of these findings, national guidelines recommending postoperative extended VTE prophylaxis, and its use as a surrogate for quality of care, should continue to be re-examined.