Hassan, Ibrahim

Abstract Background Climate-related stressors such as heat, wildfires, and extreme weather are increasingly recognized as determinants of cardiovascular and oncologic health. However, their joint impact on overlapping cancer–cardiovascular disease (CVD) burdens remains unknown. We developed a Cardio-Oncology Burden Index (COBI) to quantify the co-prevalence of cancer and CVD at the community level and examined its association with climate vulnerability across U.S. census tracts. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional ecological analysis of 82,679 census tracts (328,683,841 residents) using the CDC PLACES database. COBI was derived using principal component analysis of age-adjusted prevalence of cancer, coronary artery disease, and stroke. The Climate Burden Index (CBI, 0–1 percentile) integrates multiple climate-related exposures, including extreme temperature, wildfire frequency, and severe weather events. Population-weighted mixed-effects regression models with county-level random effects estimated associations between CBI and COBI, adjusting for region, rurality, and environmental justice indicators. β coefficients represent percentage-point differences in COBI per unit (or category) increase in climate burden. Exposure–response relationships were examined using restricted cubic splines (RCS). Robustness was assessed via geographically matched (<50 km) and fully matched (region, rural–urban commuting area, and environmental justice) analyses. Results Marked spatial heterogeneity was observed in both CBI and COBI across the U.S. (Fig. A–B). Higher climate burden was consistently associated with greater cardio-oncology burden (Fig. C), demonstrating a dose–response relationship: second vs lowest quartile β=0.92 (95% CI, 0.61–1.24); third vs lowest quartile β=1.61 (95% CI, 1.30–1.92); highest vs lowest quartile β=3.44 (95% CI, 3.11–3.76). The RCS model revealed a significant non-linear association (p_non-linear<0.001), with a plateau at moderate exposures and a steep rise at the highest CBI levels (Fig. D). Results remained robust in sensitivity analyses (β=4.17 [95% CI, 3.62–4.71] for geographically matched; β=4.39 [95% CI, 4.10–4.69] for fully matched tracts; Table). Conclusions Greater climate burden is independently associated with higher cardio-oncology burden across U.S. communities, with disproportionate effects in the most climate-vulnerable areas. This novel, population-level linkage between climate stress and onco-cardiovascular disease burden, highlights an emerging syndemic at the intersection of environment, cancer, and CVD. Targeted mitigation and prevention strategies integrating environmental resilience into chronic disease prevention are urgently needed.For image description, please refer to the figure legend and surrounding text.

Abstract Background Obesity is a major public health concern and a leading contributor to premature mortality worldwide. While body mass index (BMI) has long been the standard measure for assessing obesity-related health risks, it fails to distinguish between fat and lean mass or capture the distribution of adiposity—key determinants of metabolic and cardiovascular (CV) health. The Body Roundness Index (BRI), a novel anthropometric measure incorporating waist circumference and height, offers a more precise assessment of body fat distribution and its associated health risks. Although prior studies have linked BRI to all-cause and CV mortality in general populations, its predictive value for premature mortality and potential disparities remain unexplored. Purpose To investigate the association between BRI and premature all-cause (primary outcome) and cardiovascular-specific mortality (secondary outcome) in U.S. adults younger than 65 years. Additionally, we examine whether these associations vary across sociodemographic subgroups. Methods We conducted a nationally representative cohort study using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data (1999–2018) linked to mortality records through December 31, 2019. Adults younger than 65 years were included, excluding those with CV disease or missing covariates. BRI, derived from waist circumference and height, was categorized into quintiles (Q3 as reference). Premature mortality was defined as deaths before age 65. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, accounting for NHANES’ complex survey design, were used to assess associations and ensure nationally representative estimates. Nonlinear relationships were examined using restricted cubic splines. Results Among 29,016 (weighted N=1,349,437,788) adults (mean age 42 years; 50% female), 751 premature deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 10 yrs, including 163 attributed to CV causes. In fully adjusted models*, participants in the highest BRI quintile (Q5 vs. Q3) had a 47% higher risk of premature all-cause mortality (HR 1.47; 95% CI, 1.12–1.93; p=0.006) and a 96% higher risk of premature cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.96; 95% CI, 1.12–3.41; p=0.02; Fig.1). Subgroup analyses indicated that the association between high BRI and premature mortality was most pronounced among middle-aged adults (45-64 years: HR 1.80; p-interaction=0.004), males (HR 1.66; p=0.006), and Hispanics (HR 2.17; p=0.007). Similar patterns were observed for premature cardiovascular mortality (Fig.2). Conclusions High BRI is independently associated with increased risks of premature all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, with the strongest effects observed in middle-aged adults. These findings highlight the potential of BRI in risk stratification and underscore the need for targeted interventions to address disparities in premature mortality. Integrating BRI into preventive cardiology and public health strategies may help reduce early mortality.Figure 1 Figure 2