Bogaerts, Jan

6520 Background: We previously reported that alternative cutpoints and alternate categorical metrics to RECIST standards provided no meaningful improvement in OS prediction. Here, we sought to identify and validate continuous, longitudinal TM-based metrics for predicting OS. Methods: Data from 13 trials (1739 patients with sufficient imaging-based measurements from breast, lung or colon cancer) were randomly split (60:40) into training and validation datasets and landmarked at 12-weeks (w). Multiple candidate metrics that capture tumor curve trajectory were considered: first slope (or % change) from baseline to 6 w, last slope (or % change) from 6 w to 12 w, and indicator of increase (<5% (includes no increase or a decrease) vs. ≥5%) from the prior assessment (baseline to 6 w, 6 w to 12 w). Multivariable Cox models stratified by study and number of baseline target lesions (<3 vs. >3) and adjusted for baseline tumor burden (ratio of the sum of lesions/number of lesions) were fit for each tumor type. Predictive ability was assessed via concordance (c)-index (0.5: no association to 1.0: perfect association), and hazard ratios/p-values (HR/p). Results: Patients whose tumor size increased by at least 5% from the prior assessment, as well as whose tumors showed a positive slope (or % change) from 6 to 12 w (indicating tumor growth) had worse OS. The first slope (or % change) metric was less consistent, with an initial decrease in slope suggesting worse OS in some cases. Predictive ability of these metrics varied across tumor type with poorest prediction in Breast (Table). Conclusions: Continuous TM-based metrics performed no better than categorical RECIST metrics for OS prediction. [Table: see text]

10602 Background: Progressive disease (PD) according to RECIST 1.1 (Eisenhauer et al, 2009) is defined as one or more of (1) PD of measurable target lesions, (2) the presence of a new lesion (NL) or (3) the unequivocal PD of non-target disease (NT-PD). We explored the impact of these components, varying over time, on predicting overall survival (OS) in the RECIST database residing at EORTC (Bogaerts et al, 2009). Methods: Data was selected from 12 randomized clinical trials (3530 patients with breast, lung or colorectal cancer). A maximum of 5 target lesions was used to determine the sum of diameters. The following were calculated or assigned at each measurement time t: best response (BR) was best % improvement from baseline up to t (0% if no improvement - 100% if complete response (CR)); tumor growth (TG) was the weekly rate of increase from nadir to t (0 if no increase; irrespective of prior shrinkage), presence of NL (yes/no), and occurrence of NT-PD (yes/no); categories were not mutually exclusive. OS was analyzed by tumor type using a Cox regression model, adjusting for baseline sum, and including BR, TG, presence of NL and NT-PD as time dependent covariates. Results: Thirty-six percent of patients had NL, 26% had NT-PD, 11% achieved CR and 14% did not have shrinkage of target lesions, while 46% experienced TG (median strongest growth per patient of 0.5 mm/week). Regardless of tumor type, the presence of NL (Hazard Ratio (HR) ranging 1.4-2.5), NT-PD (HR 1.2-2.5) and TG (per 1mm/week increase; HR 1.1-1.4) were associated with worse OS, while achieving CR was associated with a longer OS (HR 0.2-0.8). Further analyses exploring the functional shape of the association between BR and TG, and OS are ongoing. This includes putting TG in contrast with the more usual % cutoff defining target PD. Conclusions: All three components of PD according to RECIST are independently strongly associated with OS. Quantification such as this will enable a better understanding of the role of each component (e.g. clinical aspect of NT-PD assessment) in PD evaluation. Work is ongoing to incorporate this information into an updated RECIST with enhanced prediction of subsequent survival.

PURPOSE The mode of action of targeted cancer agents (TCAs) differs from classic chemotherapy, which leads to concerns about the role of RECIST in evaluating tumor response in trials with TCAs. We investigated the performance of RECIST using a pooled database from 50 clinical trials with at least one TCA. METHODS We examined the impact of the number of target lesions (TLs) on within-patient variability of tumor response. The prognostic effect of TL response (at 12 weeks or on study on the basis of a maximum five TLs) on survival was studied through landmark and time-dependent Cox models adjusted for baseline tumor load, occurrence of new lesions, or unequivocal progression of nontarget disease. RESULTS Data were obtained from 23,259 patients with cancer (36% lung, 28% colorectal, 11% breast, and 25% other); 15,620 received TCAs, predominantly transduction or angiogenesis inhibitors, as a single agent (37%), combined with other TCAs (7%), or as chemotherapy (56%); 28% received chemotherapy only; and 5% received best supportive care or placebo. A total of 17,222 patients contributed to the analyses. Within-patient variability decreased with increasing number of TLs, similarly for TCAs (with/without chemotherapy) and chemotherapy only. Mixed responses occurred proportionally in all treatment classes. Landmark analyses showed an ordinal relationship between percentage change from baseline to 12 weeks and overall survival, and demonstrated a clear distinction between tumor shrinkage and progressive disease according to RECIST. Time-dependent analysis showed no marked improvement in the ability to predict survival on the basis of TL tumor growth compared with nontarget progression or new lesion occurrence, regardless of treatment. Similar results were seen for major tumor types and different classes of TCAs. CONCLUSION This work reinforces that RECIST version 1.1 perform well for response assessment of TCAs.

2534 Background: The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) v1.1 were derived from an international collaborative effort supported by data from clinical trials (16 studies, 9147 patients) on cytotoxic chemotherapy (CT), providing a standard tool for response assessment. RECIST’s role has been questioned for TCA. Using a pooled individual patient database (IPD) from clinical trials performed by industry and cooperative groups, we assessed whether modifications to RECIST are required to evaluate antitumor activity of TCA. Methods: Data were collected from phase 2 and 3 clinical trials testing TCA in solid tumors. To study the occurrence of mixed responses, the variability of response of lesions within patients was studied. Furthermore, response was correlated with survival through landmark analyses and time dependent Cox models. Results: Clinical data were obtained from 23,259 patients, mainly with lung (36%), colorectal (28%) or breast cancer (11%). 15,620 patients (67%) received a TCA, mainly transduction or angiogenesis inhibitors, either as single agent (37%) or combined with other TCAs (7%) or CT (56%); 28% received CT only and 5% best supportive care or placebo. Within-patient variability reduced as the number of lesions used for response assessment increased, and did so similarly for TCAs (+/- CT) and CT. Mixed responses seemed to occur similarly across these treatment categories as well. Landmark analyses showed improving overall survival by % tumor shrinkage and a clear distinction between the effect of tumor shrinkage and progressive disease (PD) according to RECIST 1.1. This was confirmed by time dependent analysis. In addition target lesion growth showed no marked improvement in overall survival prediction over and above the other components of RECIST 1.1 PD (new lesions, non-target PD), regardless of treatment (TCA, CT or both) received. Similar results were seen focusing on major tumor types and classes of TCA. Conclusions: Using a large IPD dataset we demonstrated that RECIST 1.1 performs equally well for response assessment of TCA as for CT. No modifications are required.

Purpose Phase II clinical trials inform go/no-go decisions for proceeding to phase III trials, and appropriate end points in phase II trials are critical for facilitating this decision. Phase II solid tumor trials have traditionally used end points such as tumor response defined by Response Evaluation Criteria for Solid Tumors (RECIST). We previously reported that absolute and relative changes in tumor measurements demonstrated potential, but not convincing, improvement over RECIST to predict overall survival (OS). We have evaluated the metrics by using additional measures of clinical utility and data from phase III trials. Methods Resampling methods were used to assess the clinical utility of metrics to predict phase III outcomes from simulated phase II trials. In all, 2,000 phase II trials were simulated from four actual phase III trials (two positive for OS and two negative for OS). Cox models for three metrics landmarked at 12 weeks and adjusted for baseline tumor burden were fit for each phase II trial: absolute changes, relative changes, and RECIST. Clinical utility was assessed by positive predictive value and negative predictive value, that is, the probability of a positive or negative phase II trial predicting an effective or ineffective phase III conclusion, by prediction error, and by concordance index (c-index). Results Absolute and relative change metrics had higher positive predictive value and negative predictive value than RECIST in five of six treatment comparisons and lower prediction error curves in all six. However, differences were negligible. No statistically significant difference in c-index across metrics was found. Conclusion The absolute and relative change metrics are not meaningfully better than RECIST in predicting OS.

Abstract Intro: Male BC is a rare disease (&lt;1% male tumors); knowledge is limited and management extrapolated from female BC. An international consortium, coordinated by EORTC and TBCRC, was created to better characterize and manage this disease, with 3 parts: 1) retrospective joint analysis 2) prospective registry 3) clinical trial(s). We report 1st results of part 1. Methods: Joint analysis of male BC pts with available FU & FFPE samples, treated in 1990-2010, in 23 centers from 9 countries. Clinical data, long term outcomes, local pathology were centrally analyzed at EORTC. FFPE samples were analyzed at 3 central labs (UK, NL, US) for histology, grade, ER, PR, AR, HER-2, Ki67. Cut-off for positivity: Allred score ≥ 3 for ER/ AR/PR; 20% for Ki67; ASCO-CAP for HER2. Outcome data (OS & RFS) analyzed per Kaplan Meier, p-values correspond to logrank test, CI’s by Brookmeyer & Crowley. Reported % use number of non-missing values as denominator. Results: 1822 pts enrolled; 349 (19%) ineligible (no valid central lab assessment); of 1473 eligible pts (1384 from EU, 89 from US) 63% diagnosed in 2001-2010. Median age at diagnosis (Dx) was 68.5 ys. Of pts with known M status at Dx, 56 (5.1%) were M1; of 1046 M0 cases, 60% were N0 and 51% had T1 tumors at Dx; 4% of pts had BCS and 18% had SLNB; half received adjuvant RT. (Neo)adjuvant CT was used in 30% of M0 pts, most (44%) anthracycline-only; 77% of M0 pts received adjuvant ET, most tamoxifen (88.4%). Central pathology: 697 cases with central histology & grade (full series ongoing): 87% ductal, 53% grade 2. In 1473 pts, at least 1 biomarker centrally assessed; 92% ER highly+ (Allred 7-8), PR had wider variation (35% highly+); 87% AR highly+; 25% Ki67 high; 5% HER2pos. Using IHC surrogates: 58% Luminal A-like, 35% LuminalB-like/HER2neg, 6% LuminalB-like/HER2pos; 0.1% HER2pos/non-Luminal; 1% TNBC (16% not classified). Outcome: For 1046 M0 pts, median FU was 5.7 yrs (0-19.2); 63% alive at analysis; in 88% cause of death was reported, mainly 33% non-cancer and 28% progression(PD)/toxicity. Significant OS improvement over time is seen. 75% (42/56) M1 pts died, mainly due PD. In M0 pts, median OS (yrs) was significantly correlated with ER+ p=0.001 [Allred 0-2: 3.9 (0.1, 6.0); 3-6: 7.1 (4.7, 11.7); 7-8: 8.8 (8.3, 10.0)] & with PR+ p=0.022 [Allred 0-2: 7.3 (6.1, 10.3), 3-6: 8.0 (7.0, 9.3), 7-8: 9.5 (8.4, 12.8)]; less correlation for AR; no major differences for HER2 or Ki67. Median OS & grade (394 cases; full series ongoing): Grade1: 12.8 yrs (6.1-15.6); Grade2: 7.9 (6.5-10.7); Grade3: 9.3 (4.9-21.1). Median OS for IHC surrogates: 8.7 (7.8-9.7) for Luminal A; 8.3 (6.9-9.4) for Luminal B/HER-2neg; 9.3 years (5.9-21.1) for Luminal B/HER-2+. Similar results were seen for RFS. ER/PR/AR using histoscores will be presented. Conclusions: a) 56% pts had T1 tumors at Dx but only 4% had BCS; b) ER was highly + in &gt;90% but adjuvant ET given in only 77% pts; c) Male BC is usually ER+, PR+ & AR+ and of Luminal A-like subtype (5% HER2pos & 1% TNBC); d) Significant improvement in OS over time; e) ER and PR (Allred) are prognostic (high expression/better prognosis), less for AR, not for Ki67 nor IHC surrogates; f) In-depth characterization of samples is ongoing. Funding: BCRF, EBCC Council, Pink Ribbon NL, BRO. Citation Format: Fatima Cardoso, John Bartlett, Leen Slaets, Carolien van Deurzen, Elise van Leewen-Stok, Peggy Porter, Barbro Linderholm, Ingrid Hedenfalk, Carolien Schroder, John Martens, Jane Bayani, Christi van Asperen, Melissa Murray, Clifford Hudis, Lavinia Middleton, Joanna Vermeij, Stephanie Peeters, Judith Fraser, Monica Nowaczyk, Isabel Rubio, Stefan Aebi, Catherine Kelly, Kathryn Ruddy, Eric Winer, Cecilia Nilsson, Lissandra Dal Lago, Larissa Korde, Kim Benstead, Danielle Van Den Weyngaert, Oliver Bogler, Theodora Goulioti, Nicolas Dif, Carlo Messina, Konstantinos Tryfonidis, Jan Bogaerts, Sharon Giordano. Characterization of male breast cancer: First results of the EORTC10085/TBCRC/BIG/NABCG International Male BC Program [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr S6-05.

Purpose We sought to test and validate the predictive utility of trichotomous tumor response (TriTR; complete response [CR] or partial response [PR] v stable disease [SD] v progressive disease [PD]), disease control rate (DCR; CR/PR/SD v PD), and dichotomous tumor response (DiTR; CR/PR v others) metrics using alternate cut points for PR and PD. The data warehouse assembled to guide the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 was used. Methods Data from 13 trials (5,480 patients with metastatic breast cancer, non–small-cell lung cancer, or colorectal cancer) were randomly split (60:40) into training and validation data sets. In all, 27 pairs of cut points for PR and PD were considered: PR (10% to 50% decrease by 5% increments) and PD (10% to 20% increase by 5% increments), for which 30% and 20% correspond to the RECIST categorization. Cox proportional hazards models with landmark analyses at 12 and 24 weeks stratified by study and number of lesions (fewer than three v three or more) and adjusted for average baseline tumor size were used to assess the impact of each metric on overall survival (OS). Model discrimination was assessed by using the concordance index (c-index). Results Standard RECIST cut points demonstrated predictive ability similar to the alternate PR and PD cut points. Regardless of tumor type, the TriTR, DiTR, and DCR metrics had similar predictive performance. The 24-week metrics (albeit with higher c-index point estimate) were not meaningfully better than the 12-week metrics. None of the metrics did particularly well for breast cancer. Conclusion Alternative cut points to RECIST standards provided no meaningful improvement in OS prediction. Metrics assessed at 12 weeks have good predictive performance.