Stapf, Christian

INTRODUCTION: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCM) are the second commonest incidental finding on brain MRI and may cause symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). However, the risk and predictors of ICH from CCM remain uncertain. HYPOTHESIS: Presentation with ICH or non-hemorrhagic focal neurological deficit (FND) attributable to CCM, brainstem CCM location, female sex, increasing age and multiple CCM predict ICH occurrence during follow-up without CCM treatment. METHODS: Three hospital-based cohorts and two cohorts from a population-based study provided individual patient data on clinical course from CCM diagnosis until either first CCM treatment or last available follow-up. We used survival analysis of each cohort to estimate the 5-year risk of symptomatic ICH or new FND, multivariable Cox regression to identify baseline predictors of outcome, and random-effects models to pool estimates in meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 988 adults who experienced 62 ICHs during 3,232 person-years of follow-up, clinical presentation with ICH or FND (hazard ratio [HR] 7.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9-19.2) and brainstem CCM location (HR 5.7, 95% CI 3.2-10.3) were associated with a higher risk of a first ICH within five years of CCM diagnosis, but age, sex and CCM multiplicity were not. The 5-year estimated risk of ICH during untreated follow-up was 2.4% (95% CI 1.0-3.8) for 566 adults without ICH/FND from CCM outside the brainstem, 5.5% (95% CI 0-12.9) for 51 adults without ICH/FND from brainstem CCM, 10.6% (95% CI 5.1-16.1) for 198 adults with ICH/FND from CCM outside the brainstem, and 25.7% (95% CI 18.3-33.1) for 173 adults with ICH/FND from brainstem CCM. In secondary analyses of first ICH or FND, event rates increased but predictors remained unchanged. CONCLUSION: Mode of clinical presentation and CCM location are independently associated with ICH or FND within five years of CCM diagnosis, which can inform decisions about CCM treatment.

Introduction: Accurately balancing risks of interventional treatment and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the untreated course of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformation (uBAVM) patients is critical for optimal management. Observational studies of uBAVM afford an opportunity to address important gaps and previous criticisms of randomized data to help guide treatment decisions and assess long-term risk/benefit ratio. We previously published an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) in 4 MARS cohorts and identified ICH presentation and increasing age as significant predictors of ICH during follow-up, but was not powered to detect predictors in those with uBAVM. Thus, the goals of this project are to identify risk factors for ICH in uBAVMs, to estimate the risk with precision, and to create personalized, risk-prediction models. Methods: MARS is an international, multi-center study of 11 cohorts with target enrollment of 4,500 uBAVM patients ascertained through population-based or referral-based studies. We are harmonizing both retrospective and prospective data, including clinical, lifestyle, imaging, and angiographic factors. Treatments, complications, and functional outcomes (physician and patient-reported) will be updated annually between 2018-2022. We propose to: 1) identify predictors of outcome in uBAVMs using IPDMA; 2) test whether long-term outcomes differ by treatment using statistical approaches for causal inference and unbiased estimates; 3) compare treatment outcomes in randomized and non-randomized data to address generalizability; and 4) validate models and provide a novel tool for calculating individualized risks. Eligible sites have: a) prior BAVM publications; b) data from a minimum of 100 uBAVM patients; c) agree to random outcome adjudication; and d) agree to MARS data sharing policy. Discussion: The NIH-funded MARS consortium will provide important and comprehensive characterization of the untreated and treated course of uBAVMs, using large observational datasets and sophisticated epidemiological approaches. The data and models generated will be a useful resource for decision-making. We welcome participation from eligible sites with longitudinal data on uBAVM patients

Background and Purpose— The prognostic significance of subarachnoid extension of intracerebral hemorrhage was determined in the INTEnsive blood pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral hemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2) study. Methods— INTERACT2 was an open randomized controlled trial of early intensive compared with guideline-recommended blood pressure lowering in patients with elevated systolic blood pressure within 6 hours of intracerebral hemorrhage. Independent predictors of death or major disability (scores 3–6 on the modified Rankin Scale) at 90 days were analyzed in logistic regression models. Results— Of 2582 participants, 192 (7%) had subarachnoid extension, which was associated with larger hematoma volumes ( P <0.0001) and higher National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score ( P <0.0001). Subarachnoid extension predicted death or major disability at 90 days (71% versus 53%; unadjusted odds ratio, 2.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.63–3.10; P <0.0001). The association remained significant after adjusting for age, region, lipid-lowering therapy, systolic blood pressure, glucose, location of hematoma, intraventricular extension, and randomized treatment (odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.50–3.14; P <0.0001), but not after further adjustment for baseline hematoma volume ( P =0.62). Conclusions— Subarachnoid extension of intracerebral hemorrhage is associated with poor prognosis, which is determined by a larger volume of the underlying intraparenchymal hematoma. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00716079.