Klaveren, David V.

Abstract Background Recently, a model to predict 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) and melanoma-specific survival (MSS) after sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) was published. The aim of this study was to validate that model in a large independent international cohort. Methods The database of the Sentinel Lymph Node Working Group (SLNWG) was analysed for patients with malignant melanoma who underwent SLNB. Patients with clinical stage III melanoma, a history of other malignancies, or receiving concomitant systemic therapies during follow-up were excluded. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated using discrimination and calibration metrics in the eligible cohort. Decision curve analysis was performed to assess the clinical value of the model. Results The external validation cohort consisted of 6174 patients of the SLNWG from the USA, Europe, and Israel. A positive sentinel node was found in 788 patients (12.8%). The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the external validation was 0.76 (95% c.i. 0.74 to 0.77) for RFS and 0.79 (95% c.i. 0.76 to 0.81) for MSS. The model was well calibrated, as the observed 5-year survival rates aligned closely with the predicted survival rates (calibration slope of 0.98 for RFS and calibration slope of 0.99 for MSS). The model provided a net benefit versus the ‘treat all’ and ‘treat none’ strategies at the predetermined probability threshold for recurrence of 45%. Conclusion The model demonstrated good performance in a large heterogeneous independent cohort, emphasizing its robustness. Decision curve analysis revealed a clear net benefit of the model over a treat all strategy, highlighting its potential for clinical use.

Abstract Background In patients with complex coronary artery disease (CAD), women favored coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG) compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at 5 years in the SYNTAX trial, whereas mortality rates after PCI and CABG were not different in men. On the other hand, poor outcomes of women undergoing PCI were not observed in the PRECOMBAT and BEST trials. The long-term optimal revascularization strategy according to gender has not been fully evaluated. Purpose In the SYNTAX Extended Survival (SYNTAXES) study, no significant difference existed in all-cause death between PCI and CABG at 10 years. This study aimed to assess treatment effect of PCI and CABG for 10-year all-cause death according to gender. Methods The SYNTAXES study evaluated vital status up to 10 years in 1,800 patients with de novo three-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) randomized to treatment with CABG or PCI in the SYNTAX trial, and the pre-specified primary endpoint was all-cause death at 10 years. In this prespecified analysis, all-cause death at 10 years according to gender in patients undergoing PCI or CABG was evaluated. Results Of 1800 patients, 402 (22.3%) were women and 1398 (77.7%) were men. In women, the rate of mortality was significantly higher in the PCI arm at 5 years than in the CABG arm (19.3% vs. 10.3%; Log-rank p=0.010, Figure A), but the rates of mortality were not different at 10 years between the PCI and CABG arms (33.0% vs. 32.5%; Log-rank p=0.600, Figure A). In men, the mortality rate tended to be higher in the PCI arm at 10 years than in the CABG arm (27.0% vs. 22.5%; Log-rank p=0.082, Figure B), although the mortality rates were not different at 5 years between the PCI and CABG arms (12.4% vs. 12.3%; Log-rank p=0.957, Figure B). Conclusion The efficacy of CABG observed at 5 years disappeared at 10 years in women, whereas the efficacy of CABG became apparent after 5 years in men. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands, reference: MEC-2016-716